This is our fifth installment of bracketology as we head
into the final week of conference play. Below
we breakdown each conference into four buckets: 1) automatic bid [discussed in
next sentence]; 2) looking good [teams highly likely to play well enough over
the final month of the regular season to earn a bid]; 3) need wins [teams that
are firmly on the bubble and will need to play well to close their season]; 4)
life support [teams that still have an outside shot at earning a bid if they
close season strong but are closer to falling off list vs. earning a bid]. For the non-AQ conferences we generally select
the team with the highest RPI as the conference winner/automatic bid. Teams are also listed in the s-curve order I
see them now within conference. In
addition ratings in team discussion are quoted as RPI/BPI/SBPI (my new Power
Ratings for college basketball), and records listed are vs. Top 25/Top 50/Top
100 (aggregated). Lastly, I always err
on the side of including a team versus adding them to a later version, and also
lean towards rating a team below where they should be as I look to avoid
sliding teams backwards in the buckets.
America East: Vermont
American Athletic:
Louisville
Looking Good: Cincinnati,
UConn, Memphis
Need
Wins:
1. SMU
(23-6/12-4) – now 12-2 in their L14
overall, have ratings of #39/#25/#77 and a solid conference record. SMU is just 1-2/3-3/3-4 which have remained largely
unchanged over last few weeks and is one of the main reasons I still have them
in Need Wins versus a bump to Looking Good.
If the Mustangs were to lose their last two regular season games
(LVILLE, @MEM), and lose an early round game in AAC Tournament they would still
likely get in (especially considering how weak the bubble is), but a
non-conference SOS of 297 brings another layer of concern into the mix. One more win will likely be enough.
Atlantic Ten: St.
Louis
Looking Good: UMass, VCU, George
Washington
Need Wins:
1. St.
Joseph’s, PA (21-7/11-3) – the Hawks have ratings of #34/#52/#61 and records of
2-4/4-4/7-6, both in bubble territory and have been consistently improving. Like SMU they are also 12-2 over their last
14 which is a major positive; in my SBPI they A10 is rated as the 6th
best conference, while the AAC is 8th. It’s hard to argue what the Hawks have
accomplished of late, and in a very weak season for bubble teams if they can
pick up 2 more wins they will likely earn a tourney bid. One more win and they will be on the bubble,
possibly playing in Dayton.
Life
Support:
1. Dayton
(20-9/8-6) – ratings of #50/#56/#48 have improved and have brought the Flyers
back to the fringe of bubble discussion, as has their 7-1 mark over their L8
outings. Records of 1-2/3-5/7-6 are OK
(especially 3 Top 50 wins), but an 8-6 mark in the A10 needs improvement,
despite the Flyers picking up a signature win versus UMass of late. With all the good they have accomplished over
the last month it may be too little too late unfortunately – a closing schedule
@STL, RICH means just like the Spiders a 2-0 close is needed; we essentially
know the RICH@DAY game on closing Saturday of regular season is an elimination
game for at-large chances. It seems the
Flyers also need about 5 more wins to close out, which doesn’t seem like a
strong possibility – but the chance remains which is why they remain here.
2. Richmond
(18-11/8-6) – ratings of #64/#76/#98 continue to worsen and really have the
Spiders barely hanging on following losing 3 of 4 and 5 of their last 9. Their bad 23 point loss at Rhode Island on
Saturday really leave them in a tough position considering their remaining two
regular season games are hosting VCU and @DAY – but that could also work in
their favor if they somehow win both.
Losing G Lindsay has put this team behind the 8 ball, and it seems
highly unlikely they earn a bid to the dance this season as they are at best
the 6th A10 team. Record
splits are a respectable 1-4/3-6/6-7 are not terrible, and would look strong
should they win out in regular season.
The Spiders top OOC win is over RPI #61 Belmont, which also leaves an
empty feeling. If the Spiders won both
to close regular season, and reached at least the A10 SF round they may have a
shot; otherwise highly unlikely (and frankly it’s unlikely they win the
requisite amount of games regardless).
ACC: Syracuse
Looking Good: Duke, Virginia, North
Carolina, Pittsburgh
Life Support:
1. Florida
State (17-11/8-8) – current rankings are #55/#43/#66, and they own records of
2-6/3-7/5-10 – borderline bubble territory although it’s impressive the number
of games they have played against top competition. Last edition I thought they needed to go 3-1
to close regular season which would include a split at Pittsburgh & hosting
Syracuse – they have started 2-0 including winning at Pitt last week. With that said they can ill-afford a slip-up
in Chestnut Hill on Tuesday night before hosting Syracuse to close their
regular season; win both those and one ACC Tournament game and they are likely
in the field; split these two regular season games and win one ACC Tournament
game it will be close and will be dependent on other bubble teams. The Seminoles have some nice OOC wins like
UMass and VCU, and a lot of narrow losses including in OT vs. Michigan and by 1
point at Florida.
2. Clemson
(18-10/9-7) – ratings of #69/#53/#68 have steadied, but also remain well
outside bubble range as does a non-conference SOS of #275 is terrible and often
a number the committee likes to expose. They
also have records of just 1-4/1-5/4-7, which just isn’t enough quality wins. The Tigers could really put the committee in
an interesting spot if they were to close out their regular season beating MIA
& PITT at home because that would leave them with a solid 11-7 ACC mark –
would the committee really leave a team out that went 11-7 in ACC despite
having an awful OOC SOS, with their best OOC win coming over RPI #132
Davidson? I feel the Tigers are still
alive, but need probably four more wins to feel good about themselves which
would mean a likely 2-0 close to regular season along with an appearance in the
ACC Tournament SF round.
Atlantic Sun: Mercer
Big 12: Kansas
Looking Good: Iowa State, Oklahoma, Texas,
Kansas State
Need Wins:
1. Baylor
(17-10/7-9) – remember Baylor has two wins against non D1 competition which
leaves their true record at 17-10, not the 19-10 you may see on television. The Bears continued their roll of late
stretching their run to 5-1 over their L6 including wins over Kansas State
& Oklahoma State. With ratings of
#42/#48/#16, record splits of 1-8/6-8/7-9, and a non-conference SOS of #31 they
are very much alive for earning a bid. Reaching
.500 in conference play has to be their goal, which will not be easy facing ISU
and @KST to close; lose both of those they are unlikely to make the field;
split and pick up a win or two in B12 Tournament and they are very much
alive. I believe their magic # is 3 more
wins no matter where they come.
2. Oklahoma
State (19-10/7-9) – the Cowboys have bounced back of late including beating
Kansas at home on Saturday. The Cowboys
& Bears will face the same teams (just vice versa at home/road) and those
two games will go a long way to determining bids. The Cowboys remain behind the Bears because
they have lost both regular season meetings, while the Bears have the edge in
most other metrics. OKST’s ratings of
#45/#20/#28 are solid, record splits of 2-5/4-9/7-9 are also not bad which has
brought them up to the Need Wins category.
I feel it’s unlikely both Baylor and Oklahoma State make the tournament,
and watching these two squads down the stretch will be exciting; State has to
be worried about the letdown hosting Kansas State tonight on Big Monday just 2
days after beating Kansas.
Big East: Villanova
Looking Good: Creighton, Xavier
Life Support:
1. Providence
(19-10/9-7) – PC is very similar to SJU as they do not have much to write home
about in their OOC action (neither has beaten one likely at-large team), both
have their signature win over Creighton, and they have both won on each other’s
home floor. Record splits of 1-4/2-5/7-9
and ratings of #58/#55/#20 are both similar but probably slightly better than SJU. With games remaining vs. MAR & @CRE they
are very likely to finish 1-1 leaving them at 20-11/10-8; but overall it would
seem 3 more wins is the minimum for the Friars.
2. St.
John’s (19-11/9-8) – the Red Storm really hurt themselves losing to Xavier at
home last week, leaving them with record splits of 1-5/1-7/5-9 – only one
quality win over Creighton at home. In
addition ratings of #62/#47/#46 are probably right outside bubble range with
the aforementioned record splits, and with only one more game @MAR remaining in
their regular season that will not offer much of a boost. Their top two OOC wins are vs. current RPI
#70 San Francisco and #122 Columbia which will also not help their cause. Winning in Milwaukee is a must and will not
be easy for certain – it seems the Red Storm need 3 more wins to remain in the
conversation.
3. Georgetown
(16-12/7-9) – the Hoyas have a lot of favorable metrics however they close
their regular season vs. CRE & @VILL; they need both of those wins to reach
.500 in conference play (which you would figure is the minimum), equaling
unlikely for their chances of earning an at-large. They remain on this week’s bracketology
because they do have some favorable metrics, but this could very well be their
last inclusion.
Big Sky: Weber
State
Big South: High
Point
Big Ten: Michigan
State
Looking Good: Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio
State, Iowa
Need
Wins:
1. Minnesota
(17-12/7-10) – the Gophers picked up a nice home win over Iowa since our last
edition, but they are not yet in the Looking Good category for many reasons,
especially considering they have not won two games in a row since January 8,
and have a mark of just 3-9 in road/neutral contests this season. Record splits of 2-6/3-7/6-10 are solid and
well within at-large range; ratings of #47/#54/#37 are in bubble range
however. With just one game remaining in
their regular season hosting PSU it’s very likely they will finish their
regular season at 18-12/8-10 – is that enough?
Their top two OOC wins were @Richmond and versus Florida State, who are
also at best a pair of bubble teams. That
being said a non-conference SOS of #28, along with residing in the top
conference in America this season should mean 2 more wins overall for the
Gophers and they will be dancing; the key is not slipping up at home vs. PSU.
Life Support:
1. Nebraska
(17-11/9-7) – the Huskers ratings sit at #54/#65/#58 remain unchanged and are
outside typical bubble range, as is a road/neutral mark of 3-10. Their top OOC win came over current RPI #86
Georgia, not helping their case although they have beaten OSU & MINN at
home, along with MSU on the road in conference play. A road mark of 2-8, and a road/neutral record
of 3-10 is not good. Despite having a
better overall & conference record than Minnesota, and beating the Gophers
head to head, they are a step behind in chances of earning an at-large. With games remaining @IND and WIS they will
be facing a difficult task for certain; NU probably needs 3 more wins to
significantly improve their chances at earning an at-large as they are clearly
7th in the Big Ten pecking order.
Big West: UC-Santa
Barbara
Colonial: Delaware
Conference USA: Southern
Mississippi
If
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI does not win their conference tournament they would still BE ALIVE to earn an at-large bid
– they would need to reach the CUSA Tournament Final to have any chance.
Horizon: Green Bay
Ivy: Harvard
MAAC: Iona
MAC: Toledo
If
TOLEDO does not win their conference tournament they would still BE ALIVE to earn an at-large bid
– they would need to reach the MAC Tournament Final to have any chance.
MEAC: North
Carolina Central
Missouri Valley: Wichita
State
If
WICHITA STATE does not win their conference tournament they would still RECEIVE a bid, thus taking a
spot away from the at-large field.
Mountain West: New
Mexico
Looking Good: San Diego State
Northeast: Robert
Morris
Ohio Valley: Belmont
Pac 12: Arizona
Looking Good: UCLA
Need
Wins:
1. Oregon
(20-8/8-8) – the Ducks have now won 5 straight AND close their season at home
versus the Arizona schools presenting a great opportunity. A road/neutral mark of 7-5 is very solid,
record splits of 1-2/2-5/8-7 are average, while ratings of #33/#19/#33 are well
within bubble territory. The Ducks have
really made a strong move of late, and look to be well positioned to earn a bid
come Selection Sunday. Amazingly Oregon
is just 1-6 vs. the other teams listed here under the Pac 12 – but consider
they have lost FOUR of those SIX games by exactly 2 points! Two more wins they are a lock to earn a bid;
one more they are also very likely to be invited and the Ducks could be a very
very dangerous 2nd round matchup for any highly ranked team.
2. Arizona
State (21-8/10-6) – ASU remains in solid shape to earn an at-large bid with 21
wins and 10 conference wins already. One
big concern for the Sun Devils is a non-conference SOS of #236, which leaves
them with what will no question be zero wins vs. at-large NCAA Tournament
teams; they do have the excellent win over rival Arizona to hang their hat on. They will close their season in Oregon vs.
the Ducks & Beavers – a mark of 5-7 in road/neutral play will hopefully
help them this week although they have lost 4 of their L5 conference road
games. Their ratings currently stand at
#28/#33/#45 has them well within bubble range, so with just 1 more win the Sun
Devils are likely to be dancing.
3. Stanford
(18-10/9-7) – ratings currently stand at #40/#36/#36, perhaps stronger than any
other P12 at-large candidate and in position to earn an at-large; record splits
are 1-4/4-7/6-9, also very solid; a road mark of 6-5 is also excellent. A nice OOC win over UConn will help, and
considering how the Cardinal close their regular season with a pair of home
games they are very close to locking up their own bid.
4. Colorado
(20-9/9-7) – the Buffaloes went 0-2 since our last edition, leaving them firmly
in Need Wins despite being close to moving up to Looking Good last time around. Their ratings currently sit at #29/#50/#40
which have slipped some since last edition; their record splits are 1-4/3-7/7-9
are better than average for the typical bubble team. The Buffs now have 4 road wins which is
strong, and a mark of 4-7 on road/neutral courts isn’t bad for bubble
teams. The biggest concern right now for
CU has to be closing the season in the Bay Area vs. STAN & CAL – if they
drop both of those contests leaving them at 20-11/9-9 they could be in some
trouble, especially considering they would then be just 6-7 without G
Dinwiddie. Colorado should make the
field (albeit possibly in the play-in game) with just one more win no matter
when it comes – but if they were to close 0-3 it’s no lock they receive an
at-large.
5. California
(18-11/9-7) – ratings currently stand at #51/#67/#64, borderline bubble
territory and dropping of late; record splits are 1-5/3-9/6-9 are not bad
especially posting 3 quality wins including one over Arizona; a 5-6 road mark
is also strong. Closing their regular
season at home vs. COLO & UTAH should help their case and move them to at
worst 10-8 in P12 play (the Pac 12 is 5th in my conference ratings
behind B10, BE, B12, ACC). Two more wins
should be enough for the Bears.
Patriot: Boston
University
SEC: Florida
Looking Good: Kentucky
Need
Wins:
1. Tennessee
(17-11/9-7) – the Vols (who lose one non D1 win leaving them at 17-11
currently) have ratings of #48/#38/#7, leaving them mostly unchanged and still
firmly in the bubble range besides the SBPI which shows them as a very solid
club. UT has a pair of excellent OOC
wins over Xavier & Virginia (a pair of likely NCAA Tournament teams), but
they have lost to Florida twice and Kentucky once in conference play (they do
not play UK again in regular season). UT
has record splits of 1-4/2-6/7-9 – they still clearly need quality wins, but
the problem is playing in the SEC will not give them that chance closing @AUB
& vs. MIZZ. A 3-7 road mark is not
doing them any favors, but even with that it seems like they have the 3rd
best SEC resume.
2. Missouri
(20-9/8-8) – ratings have really dropped of late currently sitting at
#49/#41/#85 which is right in bubble territory.
Record splits of 1-2/2-2/8-8 aren’t terrible but also do not grab your
attention, while a road mark of 3-6 is seemingly in same bucket but a road/neutral
record of 6-7 is strong – lots of mixed signals for the Tigers. A non-conference win over UCLA will be
something they can hang their hat on, but an overall non-conference SOS of #153
isn’t a strong point to their resume.
The SEC rates 7th in my conference power ratings which also
will do them no favors; with all that in mind it seems to me Missouri will need
4 more wins, possibly down to 3 if one of those comes at Tennessee to close
their regular season. Using the eye test
they seem like a tourney team at times, but are very inconsistent.
3. Arkansas
(20-9/9-7) – the Razorbacks have won 5 straight and 7 of their L8 putting
themselves in the mix to earn an at-large following their second win this
season versus Kentucky this past week.
Although Arkansas’ OOC SOS rates just #181 they do have wins over SMU,
Minnesota, and Clemson giving them some decent OOC wins to hang their hat on,
especially combined with those UK victories; losing both games versus Missouri
leaves them behind the Tigers in this week’s edition. Record splits of 2-1/4-5/8-8 are very solid,
and a 5-7 road/neutral mark is also good.
With games remaining against Ole Miss and @Alabama a 22-9/11-7 record is
well within range. Seemingly out of
nowhere if Arkansas can come up with 3 more wins I think they are certain to be
dancing; two may have them on the bubble.
Life Support:
1. LSU
(17-11/8-8) – the Tigers ratings have remained nearly static since our last
update at #61/#60/#84, keeping their at-large hopes in danger – that narrow
loss at Kentucky in OT may be the difference in the Tigers fate sadly because
of some early season falters. Their
record splits are more than respectable at 1-3/3-5/5-8, but road games have
haunted these young & inexperienced Tigers going just 2-8. Their closing schedule is not bad @VAN and
hosting UGA – but LSU needs at least 4 wins and possibly to earn the SEC
automatic bid to be dancing in 2 weeks.
Southern: Davidson
Southland: Stephen
F. Austin
SWAC: Southern
Summit: North
Dakota State
Sun Belt: Georgia
State
West Coast: Gonzaga
If
GONZAGA does not win their conference tournament they would still RECEIVE a bid, thus taking one
away from the current at-large pool.
Need Wins:
1. BYU
(20-10/13-5) – the Cougars (who lose one non D1 win leaving them at 20-10
currently) have ratings of #36/#46/#50, which are unchanged from last edition. The Cougars are well positioned to earn an
at-large selection considering they have faced the 7th toughest
non-conference SOS. They also have wins
over likely tourney teams Stanford, Texas and Gonzaga; record splits of
1-3/3-5/7-6 is pretty solid. The Cougars
regular season is now complete; up next the WCC Tournament where they are the
#2 seed. Barring an early round exit in
the WCCT they will be playing in the Big Dance in 2014.
WAC: New Mexico
State
FIELD: 68
AUTOMATIC BIDS: 32
(up from 31 in prior years due to newly formed American Athletic Conference)
LOOKING GOOD: 23
(up from 22 last edition with Xavier added)
Currently I project 55
of the 68 bids are earned.
NEED WINS: 14
(down from 15 last edition)
LIFE SUPPORT: 9
(down from 15 last edition)
That leaves 23 teams that are in the mix for 13 open bids.
Keep in mind however that DOES NOT include the upsets we will see during Conference
Tournament week where teams that are LOCKS
from smaller conferences lose a game in their conference tournament and hence use
an at-large bid on themselves.
The remaining 13 open bids in this week’s edition (in
conference alphabetical order):
SMU
St. Joseph’s (PA)
Baylor
Oklahoma State
Minnesota
Oregon
Arizona State
Stanford
Colorado
California
Tennessee
Missouri
BYU
**KEEP IN MIND IT’S UNLIKELY ALL OF THESE TEAMS MAKE THE
NCAA TOURNAMENT BECAUSE OF UPSETS AND BID-STEALING SPOTS THAT WILL INEVITABLY
OCCUR IN CONFERENCE TOURNAMENTS.
FIRST FOUR OUT –
alphabetical order:
Arkansas
Florida State
Providence
St. John’s
Multiple bid conferences
(total of 46 bids in 10 conferences; 22 single bid conferences = 68 bids):
B12 (7): +1 / Baylor
P12 (7): +1 / Oregon
B10 (6)
A10 (5)
ACC (5): -1 / Florida State
AAC (5)
SEC (4)
BE (3): -1 / St. John’s
WCC (2)
MWC (2)
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