As we close out Championship Week today the Field of 68 is
squared away. We will use this last
breakdown moving forward: Teams bolded and underlined are LOCKS; “ * “
indicates a certain one bid league; new non-major conference champions will
come with quick description about their resume; teams are listed within their
conference in order of strength; bubble is discussed only at bottom of entry.
*America East
ALBANY: the Great Danes were one of many teams to surprise the favored
home-court squad by taking down Stony Brook in the AE Final. Albany only faced one team in the Top 100 all
season, a 12pt loss at Pitt; their only Top 150 win of the season was over
Vermont on a neutral court. Albany was
#3 in the AE as measured by my SBPI, checking in on an SOS-adjusted basis at
#261 in the country – easily one of the worst in the field. Expect to see Albany in Dayton Tuesday or
Wednesday.
American Athletic:
Louisville, Cincinnati, UConn, Memphis, SMU
Atlantic Ten: VCU,
George Washington, UMass, St. Louis, St. Joseph’s, Dayton
ACC: Duke, Virginia,
Syracuse, North Carolina, Pittsburgh
*Atlantic Sun:
Mercer
Big 12: Kansas,
Iowa State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Baylor, Kansas State
Big East: Villanova,
Creighton, Xavier, Providence
*Big Sky WEBER
STATE: the chalk held in the Big Sky as WSU took care of business
during the regular season & the conference tournament. That being said this isn’t one of your
dangerous Weber State teams as they have ZERO wins over the Top 185 in RPI all
season! Their RPI sits at #157, which
will be one of the worst in the tournament; their SOS-adjusted SBPI is #244,
again one of the lower in the NCAA Tournament and just 4th in a Big
Sky conference that was ranked 25th out of 32. The Wildcats are in the 15/16 seed range.
*Big South:
Coastal Carolina
Big Ten: Wisconsin,
Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Iowa, Nebraska
*Big West CAL POLY
SLO: the Mustangs shocked the Big West and earned the automatic bid’
beating Northridge on Saturday night.
Poly had the 5th best RPI in the conference (#212), but they
did rank much higher in the SBPI checking in at #198 on a non-adjusted basis /
#116 (2nd best in Big West behind Long Beach State) on an
SOS-adjusted level. Clearly at 11-19
they are headed to Dayton for a play-in game, but they could be a solid
candidate to wager on in said matchup.
*Colonial:
Delaware
*Conference USA
TULSA: Danny Manning ran through the CUSA Tournament leading his Golden
Hurricanes to the automatic bid. Tulsa
was 4th in the CUSA according to SOS-adjusted SBPI, checking in at
#95 in the country. Tulsa has an RPI
around #80, and was 5-7 against the RPI Top 100 including 1 quality Top 50 win
over Southern Mississippi. Tulsa could
be a dangerous squad in the dance; expect them around the 13 line.
*Horizon: Milwaukee
*Ivy: Harvard
*MAAC: Manhattan
*MAC WESTERN
MICHIGAN: the Broncos sealed the MAC Championship by beating Toledo,
and head into the dance one of the most interesting teams from my
perspective. On one hand in my
SOS-adjusted SBPI they rate a terrible #224 in the country, which was amazingly
dead last in the MAC despite winning both the regular season and post season
tournament. On the other hand WMU is
ranked around #80 in RPI – but they have only 1 OOC win vs. a Top 150 RPI team
versus New Mexico State – odd. WMU will
most likely be on the 14 line – and they sure are a curious team from my
perspective, one I cannot see wagering on or against in their opening game.
*MEAC NORTH
CAROLINA CENTRAL: the Eagles earned the MEAC automatic bid and come
into the tourney on a huge 20 game winning streak with their last loss coming
on January 11th by just 3 points.
They are also the top rated MEAC team in the SOS-adjusted SBPI checking
in at #252; using raw data not adjusted for SOS they are #12 in the country
using balance on offense & defense.
With an RPI around #100 they are likely to be on the 15/16 line, but
could be a dangerous club for sure as they are full of confidence having not
lost a game in 2 months plus!
*Missouri Valley:
Wichita State
Mountain West: San
Diego State, New Mexico
*Northeast: Mount
St. Mary’s
*Ohio Valley:
Eastern Kentucky
Pac 12: Arizona,
UCLA, Oregon, Colorado, Stanford, Arizona State
*Patriot: American
SEC: Florida,
Kentucky, Tennessee
*Southern: Wofford
*Southland STEPHEN
F. AUSTIN: the Lumberjacks are the 2nd hottest team in the
country behind only Wichita State, and won both the regular season &
conference tournament. They have a solid
RPI around #60, however, have only played 4 GAMES ALL YEAR versus RPI Top 150
teams going 3-1 (and the only team from that group that advanced to dance was
Texas, their loss). SOS-adjusted SBPI of
#177 is solid and driven by a non-SOS adjusted performance that is 2nd
in the country! Considering their SOS
was #330 on the year (only 21 teams in the entire country faced an easier
schedule) it’s not likely the win a game – but they certainly have the
capability of pulling a huge upset as they will likely be on the 14/15 line.
*SWAC TEXAS
SOUTHERN: the Tigers locked in the SWAC’s automatic bid on Saturday
& check in at #245 in the RPI currently – one of the worst amongst Tourney
teams. They only have two Top 230 wins
all year – versus Southern & at Temple; they also rank #323 in SBPI using
SOS-adjusted rating, one of the worst again in the tournament. Expect to see Texas Southern in Dayton early
this week.
*Summit: North
Dakota State
*Sun Belt: Georgia State
West Coast: Gonzaga,
BYU
*WAC NEW MEXICO
STATE: the Aggies earned the WAC auto-bid beating Idaho in the
Championship Game. NMST is around 80th
in the RPI, and did beat rival New Mexico earlier in the season. State was ranked #164 in SOS-adjusted SBPI,
mostly driven by a strong offense. The
Aggies figure to be a moderately dangerous squad, and should sit around the 14
line come Sunday.
FIELD: 68
AUTOMATIC BIDS
& LOCKS: 68
Currently I project 68
of the 68 bids are earned (St.
Joseph’s, Dayton, SMU, Providence, Tennessee, Nebraska, Arizona State added).
Multiple bid conferences
(total of 46 bids in 10 conferences; 22 single bid conferences = 68 bids):
B12 (7)
P12 (6)
B10 (6)
A10 (6)
ACC (5)
AAC (5)
BE (4)
SEC (3)
WCC (2)
MWC (2)
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