NCAA Football: Week Seven & Eight Review, and New Power Poll

I am back with a Week 8 review, and will not miss a week moving forward thru the end of the season!  I am pumped for that, and also pumped for the last 6 weeks of this college football season.  Where can we start this week?  How about the fact ELEVEN teams remain undefeated?  That number seems incredibly high to me as we are in late October – and that will certainly be something to keep an eye on.  Make no mistake, some of these teams will still meet each other, which will cut down on the undefeated squads – but those games should be very entertaining when they arrive!  Let’s jump into the Power Poll followed by a discussion of these teams below.

Week Eight Power Poll (ranking, team, record, 2 wk’s ago PP ranking, next game vs. Power Poll team)

#1 Alabama Crimson Tide (7-0, #1): 10/27 VS #17 MISSISSIPPI STATE

#2 Kansas State Wildcats (7-0, #5): 10/27 VS #16 TEXAS TECH

#3 Oregon Ducks (7-0, #2): 11/3 @ #14 USC

#4 Florida Gators (7-0, #3): 10/27 VS #9 GEORGIA

#5 Oklahoma Sooners (5-1, #7): 10/27 VS #8 NOTRE DAME

#6 LSU Tigers (7-1, #8): 11/3 VS #1 ALABAMA

#7 South Carolina Gamecocks (6-2, #4): 11/24 VS #13 CLEMSON

#8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7-0, #11): 10/27 @ #5 OKLAHOMA

#9 Georgia Bulldogs (6-1, #10): 10/27 VS #4 FLORIDA

#10 Oregon State Beavers (6-0, #14): 11/10 @ #20 STANFORD

#11 Florida State Seminoles (7-1, #9): 11/24 VS #4 FLORIDA

#12 Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0, #12): 11/24 VS #19 MICHIGAN

#13 Clemson Tigers (6-1, #13): 11/24 VS #7 SOUTH CAROLINA

#14 USC Trojans (6-1, #16): 11/03 VS #3 OREGON

#15 Louisville Cardinals (7-0, #17): 10/26 VS #21 CINCINNATI

#16 Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-1, NR): 10/27 @ #2 KANSAS STATE

#17 Mississippi State Bulldogs (7-0, #21): 10/27 @ #1 ALABAMA

#18 Rutgers Scarlet Knights (7-0, #18): 11/17 @ #21 CINCINNATI

#19 Michigan Wolverines (5-2, #23): 11/24 @ #12 OHIO STATE

#20 Stanford Cardinal (5-2, #20): 11/10 VS #10 OREGON STATE

#21 Cincinnati Bearcats (5-1, #25): 10/26 @ #15 LOUISVILLE

#22 West Virginia Mountaineers (5-2, #6): 11/17 VS #5 OKLAHOMA

#23 Texas Longhorns (5-2, #15): 11/3 @ #16 TEXAS TECH

#24 Ohio Bobcats (7-0, N5): no games remaining vs. Power Poll teams

#25 Toledo Rockets (7-1, NR): no games remaining vs. Power Poll teams

Dropped out of Power Poll:

#19 Arizona State

#22 Nevada

#24 Iowa State

New addition to Power Poll:

#16 Texas Tech: NR

#24 Ohio: N5

#25 Toledo: NR

Next Five to keep eye on, in alphabetical order only

A)     Boise State Broncos (6-1): NR

B)      Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (6-1): NR

C)      Tulsa Golden Hurricane (7-1): NR

D)     UCLA Bruins (5-2): NR

E)      Wisconsin Badgers (6-2): NR

By conference:

ACC: 2

Big 12: 5

Big 10: 2

Big East: 3

Independent: 1

MAC: 2

Pac 12: 4

SEC: 6

CUSA & MWC & Sun Belt & WAC: 0

This week we have five ranked vs. ranked matchups:

#17 Mississippi State @ #1 Alabama

#16 Texas Tech @ #2 Kansas State

#4 Florida vs. #9 Georgia

#8 Notre Dame @ #5 Oklahoma

#21 Cincinnati @ #15 Louisville

BCS Division & Conference Projections

ACC

                Atlantic: Florida State remains the favorite to win this division following their home win over Clemson in late September, but both schools currently have one loss as FSU fell at NC State earlier this month.  The Seminoles have three ACC games remaining, two on the road along with hosting Duke this week.  The toughest remaining game figures to be Virginia Tech, who has clearly had a disappointing season especially defensively, but at the same time does have enough talent on the field should they reach their potential to play with the Noles – something that has evaded them to this point in the season.  Both FSU & Clemson have HUGE rivalry games with SEC foes to close their season versus Florida & South Carolina, respectively.  It is possible that both teams reach a BCS bowl, and may depend on the success of Notre Dame down the stretch.

                Coastal: this division is much more wide open with 3-1 Duke sitting atop the heap currently, but a pair of 2 loss teams trails closely in Miami & Virginia Tech (UNC also has 2 losses but is not eligible to play in the ACC Championship game due to NCAA sanctions).  The Blue Devils have played both of their closest pursuers, losing at VT but beating UNC at home last week.  However, the rotational portion of their schedule will probably take them out of the running as they still must travel to FSU and host Clemson.  For all the disappointment this season has been for the Hokies, especially defensively, they may be the team to beat in the Coastal at this point as they have three very winnable games in their last four, along with the aforementioned visit to Blacksburg by the Seminoles.  Thursday’s game featuring VT @ Miami will go a long way to deciding the Coastal division.  I think at the end of the day the Hurricanes will win the division after a series of tie-breakers.

                Championship Game: Florida State vs. Miami, FL (FSU won 1^st meeting this year 33-20)

                Champion: Florida State

BIG 12

                There are no longer two divisions and a championship game for this conference as the regular season round-robin will determine the conference’s BCS berth.  Kansas State currently sits atop with a 4-0 mark, while a trio of 1 loss teams, and another trio of strong 2 loss teams trail.  The Wildcats have five remaining Big 12 games, three in Manhattan and a pair on the road in Fort Worth and Waco.  Even though this is perhaps the deepest conference in college football you have to believe either Kansas State or Oklahoma finishes the regular season with only 1 conference loss.  That would mean K-State could lose one more game along the way, and OU would run the table – if those two were tied at top the berth would go to Kansas State based on their head to head win in Norman earlier this season.  Bill Snyder’s club will be favored in all 5 remaining games they play this season, making an even stronger case that barring injury they get through their slate with at worst one loss.  Oklahoma still must travel to West Virginia, the only spot on their schedule where they may not be a favorite.  Texas Tech and Oklahoma State are the other current one loss clubs – but its very hard to see either of those two getting through the rest of their schedule without a loss – and they also still play each other so that will wind up being the second loss for one of them.  This conference will be decided upon if Kansas State can get through their remaining schedule with only one more loss, and if Oklahoma can win in Morgantown to keep the pressure on the Wildcats.

                Champion: Kansas State

BIG EAST

                The conference as a whole has performed solidly through this portion of the season as two teams remain undefeated (RU, UL), Cincinnati has only 1 loss which they suffered last week at Toledo, and of the remaining five teams four have 3 wins while USF brings up the rear with a 2-5 mark.  Since there are only 7 conference games per team their BE slate gets kicked-off a little later than most conferences as Cincinnati for example has only played 1 conference game thus far – and that was their opener, a home win over Pittsburgh.  On the flip side Rutgers has blazed out to a 4-0 conference mark and is clearly setting the early pace for the conference’s BCS bid – but with a tough trio of games remaining (@CIN, @PITT, Louisville) nothing is locked up yet.  Along with the Scarlet Knights Louisville seems to be the class of the conference.  The Cardinal have only two road games left, but one of those is the last game of the season at Rutgers – a game that is likely to determine the conference winner, the way it should be: on a Thursday night, in late November, winner take all scenario.

                Champion: Louisville

BIG TEN

                Legends: following Michigan State’s loss to Michigan in the Big House last week we know there will not be a repeat Legends champ in 2012.  UM sits alone atop the division at 3-0, but is closely trailed by Nebraska and Iowa at 2-1.  On Saturday night in Lincoln the Wolverines visit the Huskers in what could wind up being the determining game for this division – but I am not sure I agree with that unless we are talking a Michigan win.  If UM pulls off this win I cannot foresee many scenarios where they are not representing the Legends in the Big 10 title game – if NU wins I still believe Michigan will finish with a better conference mark, and wind up winning the division – although it would likely take a pair of NU losses in their final four games if you assume Michigan loses at Ohio State to close their season.  I project with a win this Saturday Michigan cruises to the Legends title; with a loss it will be tougher, but once the schedule is played out, they will finish on top.

                Leaders: with the current top two teams in the division (OSU & PSU) both ineligible to play for the Big Ten Championship this season due to NCAA sanction, and the bottom three teams sitting at a combined 0-9, there really isn’t any other option than Wisconsin taking home the Leaders crown.

                Championship Game: Michigan vs. Wisconsin (teams do not play during regular season)

                Champion: Michigan

PAC 12

                North: this division is a three school race as the pair of Oregon schools currently sit atop the standings at 4-0, while Stanford is 1 game back at 3-1.  The beauty of the current situation is none of the three teams have played each other yet – we will have a nice round robin in November that will likely decide this division winner.  All three teams also play one of those games on the road, and one at home – leveling the playing field some more.  On a pure talent basis Oregon would be considered the favorite – but we also must take into account scheduling.  Oregon is the only one of the trio that still must play south favorite USC, and they play in LA.  Stanford must also travel to LA, but to face cross town UCLA in a game that is much tougher than projected to be at the start of the season.  Oregon State appears to have the easiest remaining slate since they play Oregon at home, and their three other games are @WAS, with home games vs. ASU & CAL.  With all that said, at the end of the day, I am taking the talent of Oregon to take care of business, and narrowly edge out cross town rival Oregon State for the North crown.

                South: this was thought to be a USC runaway before the season started, and while I still feel the Trojans are the favorite to win it, they will certainly be challenged more in their division then initially thought.  I am certainly a buyer of UCLA, as I feel they can and will give USC all they want and then some in the Rose Bowl on November 17^th.  Arizona it the next best team, but their chances to win the division evaporated when they lost to the 3 North heavyweights in consecutive weeks in late September/early October.  And although Arizona State only has one loss I fail to see them sticking around and being in the mix come mid-November.  The Bruins are the only hope here to upend the Trojans, and it will take a head to head win, an Oregon win over USC in the Coliseum, and UCLA not slipping up in any of their other three games – it’s just too much to ask, although it will get interesting.

                Championship Game: Oregon vs. USC

                Champion: Oregon

SEC

                East: race is down to basically just two teams, Florida and Georgia, with these two rivals facing off this week in Jacksonville.  Florida sits at 6-0, having already beat South Carolina and LSU of note.  Georgia sits at 4-1, having lost to South Carolina – and they do not face Alabama, LSU or Mississippi State this season.  Quite simple here for me, the winner of this game will win the East.  And I think that team will be Georgia.  For the Gamecocks to get back in the race they would need a lot to happen, such as Georgia beating Florida, then Florida losing to Missouri at home, then Georgia losing to Ole Miss at home or at Auburn to bring on a three way tiebreaker.  It could happen, but I do not think it’s likely.

                West: is there even a race?  Alabama has dominated everyone in their path thus far in 2012, and there really aren’t many ways I see them being stopped from at least reaching the SEC Championship game.  Unlike the East there certainly is still a lot of football to be played, especially for Alabama considering they still must play 2^nd place Mississippi State at home this week, then travel to 3^rd place LSU next week, on top of still facing Texas A&M and rival Auburn – but the Tide just seem too good right now.  The best chance any team faces of dethroning Bama is if LSU can exact revenge in Death Valley next weekend from last year’s title game beatdown – that would put both Alabama and LSU with one loss, tiebreaker going to LSU.  If LSU could then run the table, and they would be favored in every game to do so, they would win the West.  But, that is a lot of “what if’s” to me.  I just do not think LSU has the offense to execute both those scenarios.

                Championship Game: Georgia vs. Alabama

                Champion: Georgia

BCS Bowl Projections

BCS National Championship Game: Georgia vs. Kansas State

Rose Bowl: Michigan vs. Oregon

Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Notre Dame

Fiesta Bowl: USC vs. Oklahoma

Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. Louisville

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NCAA Football: Week Five & Six Review, and New Power Poll

Things got too busy last week and I wasn’t able to post a Wk5 review and Power Poll, so we had to get one posted early this week to get the information out there.  Conference play has commenced, and in the last two weeks we have learned quite a lot – some good, some bad, some undecided as well.  Let’s jump right into the Power Poll this week, then discuss each team more in depth below, along with additional comments on the world that is college football.

Week Six Power Poll (ranking, team, record, 2 wk’s ago PP ranking, next game vs. Power Poll team)

#1 Alabama Crimson Tide (5-0, #1): 10/27 VS #21 MISSISSIPPI STATE

#2 Oregon Ducks (6-0, #4): 10/18 @ #19 ARIZONA STATE

#3 Florida Gators (5-0, #9): 10/20 VS #4 SOUTH CAROLINA

#4 South Carolina Gamecocks (6-0, #6): 10/13 @ #8 LSU

#5 Kansas State Wildcats (5-0, #5): 10/13 @ #24 IOWA STATE

#6 West Virginia Mountaineers (5-0, #15): 10/20 VS #5 KANSAS STATE

#7 Oklahoma Sooners (3-1, #14): 10/13 VS #15 TEXAS

#8 LSU Tigers (5-1, #7): 10/13 VS #4 SOUTH CAROLINA

#9 Florida State Seminoles (5-1, #2): 11/24 VS #3 FLORIDA

#10 Georgia Bulldogs (5-1, #3): 10/27 VS #3 FLORIDA

#11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-0, #8): 10/13 VS #20 STANFORD

#12 Ohio State Buckeyes (6-0, #16): 11/24 VS #23 MICHIGAN

#13 Clemson Tigers (5-1, #12): 11/24 VS #4 SOUTH CAROLINA

#14 Oregon State Beavers (4-0, #25): 11/03 VS #19 ARIZONA STATE

#15 Texas Longhorns (4-1, #10): 10/13 VS #7 OKLAHOMA

#16 USC Trojans (4-1, #13): 11/03 VS #2 OREGON

#17 Louisville Cardinals (5-0, #17): 10/26 VS #25 CINCINNATI

#18 Rutgers Scarlet Knights (5-0, #20): 11/17 @ #25 CINCINNATI

#19 Arizona State Sun Devils (4-1, N5): 10/18 VS #2 OREGON

#20 Stanford Cardinal (4-1, #11): 10/13 @ #11 NOTRE DAME

#21 Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-0, N5): 10/27 @ #1 ALABAMA

#22 Nevada Wolfpack (5-1, N5): no remaining games vs. current Power Poll teams

#23 Michigan Wolverines (3-2, NR): 11/24 @ #12 OHIO STATE

#24 Iowa State Cyclones (4-1, NR): 10/13 VS #5 KANSAS STATE

#25 Cincinnati Bearcats (4-0, NR): 10/26 @ #17 LOUISVILLE

Dropped out of Power Poll:

#18 Purdue

#19 Michigan State

#21 Baylor

#22 TCU

#23 Tennessee

#24 Northwestern

New addition to Power Poll:

#19 Arizona State: N5

#21 Mississippi State: N5

#22 Nevada: N5

#23 Michigan: NR

#24 Iowa State: NR

#25 Cincinnati: NR

Next Five to keep eye on, in alphabetical order only

A)     Duke Blue Devils: NR

B)      Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: NR

C)      Northwestern Wildcats: #24

D)     Ohio Bobcats: NR

E)      Tulsa Golden Hurricane: NR

By conference:

ACC: 2

Big 12: 5

Big 10: 2

Big East: 3

Independent: 1

MWC: 1

Pac 12: 5

SEC: 6

CUSA & MAC & Sun Belt & WAC: 0

This week we have four ranked vs. ranked matchups, and the best part of that is its spread amongst three conferences – instead of being bogged down by the SEC:

#4 South Carolina @ #8 LSU

#5 Kansas State @ #24 Iowa State

#7 Oklahoma vs. #15 Texas

#20 Stanford @ #11 Notre Dame

Top 25 discussion

#1 Alabama Crimson Tide (5-0, #1): there is no question at this point in the season the Tide is the #1 team in the country.  The Bama defense has not yielded more than 14 points in a game, and has posted two shutouts as well – granted, the competition has not been great, as they have only played one team in my current PP (#23 Michigan), but it’s still impressive with the turnover on the roster how well they have played so early in the season.  As mentioned all season long their schedule is very favorable as well, avoiding #3 Florida, #4 South Carolina and #10 Georgia from the East.  Their season is likely to come down to a pair of games, the SEC Championship, and with a win, the BCS Championship – I just do not see many (if any) scenarios where Alabama does not win the SEC West.

#2 Oregon Ducks (6-0, #4): can a team fly under the radar starting the season 6-0, while averaging 52.3 points per game, and an average margin of victory of 32.3ppg?  Seems like the Ducks are not getting as much press as even some of their Pac 12 brethren, including the surprise teams #14 Oregon State, #19 Arizona State, Arizona, UCLA, and #16 USC – who seem to have generated more buzz based on a loss then the Ducks unbeaten season so far.  What’s good for the Pac 12 is those aforementioned surprise teams, who may be able to at least give Oregon a game – especially considering OU must travel to Arizona State (this week), USC and Oregon State.  It is more possible now than just a few weeks ago Oregon loses a game somewhere along the line outside the USC matchup, but they still appear to be the cream of the Pac 12 North crop.

#3 Florida Gators (5-0, #9): the Gators have risen up from seemingly nowhere to the #3 spot in the latest poll, and it would be tough to argue any team in the country has three more impressive wins thus far than UF does in Texas A&M and Tennessee on the road, and at home this past Saturday vs. #8 LSU.  I still have questions about this offense – but that question can really be said regarding just about every SEC team.  After their trip to Vanderbilt this Saturday they will have closed out their road slate in the SEC (the Georgia neutral field game is a Florida “away” game this season), and will not leave the state of Florida for the remainder of the regular season.  From October 20^th to November 17^th they will have 5 straight home games in The Swamp, followed by a season ending trip to Tallahassee, which may evoke memories of those fabulous 90’s Gator/Seminole showdowns.  The SEC East title is completely there for the taking if Florida can beat #10 Georgia in Jacksonville on October 27^th.

#4 South Carolina Gamecocks (6-0, #6): by now I think everyone knows this South Carolina team means business, supported by a defense that is one of the best in college football which directly resulted in their hammering of a very strong Georgia team on Saturday in Columbia.  The Cocks miss two of the three ranked SEC West teams in #1 Alabama and # 21 Mississippi State, but do face #8 LSU this coming weekend in Death Valley – which probably is not good for SC since the Tigers are off a rare loss.  If they can somehow pull out that win, their season will likely come down to the following weekend when they travel to Gainesville to face #3 Florida.  They still control their own destiny in the SEC East, like Florida.

#5 Kansas State Wildcats (5-0, #5): the Cats started a little slow on Saturday vs. in-state rival Kansas, but eventually woke up and pounded the Jayhawks 56-16.  With # 7 Oklahoma already in the “W” column, only three potential losses remain on their schedule: these next two weeks they travel to #24 Iowa State followed by #6 West Virginia, and they close their season at home vs. #15 Texas.  They control the Big 12 right now along with West Virginia – but this conference is very competitive, so it is far too early to make projections with any certainty as to who may earn the automatic BCS bid.  We do know the October 20^th K-State/WVU matchup will have Big 12 & BCS championship implications.

#6 West Virginia Mountaineers (5-0, #15): outside #2 Oregon there has not been a more explosive offense then WVU, averaging a robust 52.0ppg.  However, their defense has allowed an equally robust (albeit for the wrong reasons) 35.0ppg, something you figure must be fixed at some point since it is extremely difficult to continually outscore your opponents on a weekly basis.  When analyzing their remaining schedule there are without question more landmines on it than #5 K-State has – for some reason, maybe the defense comment above, I just do not trust that WVU will find their way through this schedule with enough wins to earn a Big 12 championship in their inaugural season.

#7 Oklahoma Sooners (3-1, #14): maybe, just maybe, the Sooners got their loss out of their system early enough to still make a run for a BCS Championship.  That remains to be seen.  What we have seen so far is a team that still struggles to be consistent – however, this past Saturday was a solid step in the right direction beating Texas Tech in Lubbock.  Not only do the Sooners have that difficult Big 12 schedule to navigate, they also face #11 Notre Dame in Norman on October 27.  If they can beat the Irish, and ND continues playing well, that could be that extra boost they need come BCS Championship game invite time, assuming they win the rest of their Big 12 games as well.  I would say there is a chance – hey, I have them as my highest rated 1 loss team, even above a few of the undefeated teams – but because of their inconsistency, think it’s a small one.

#8 LSU Tigers (5-1, #7): the Tigers 18 game regular season win streak came to a halt on Saturday in Gainesville, as their offense was nowhere to be found in a 14-6 loss.  A good sign from that game is that defense – wow.  Even with the personnel turnover year after year Les Miles and company always have a scary, fast, physical defense that seemingly each week controls their game.  Problem remains the same for LSU – an offense that cannot score enough points – and “enough points” is often such a small amount, which makes it that much worse.  QB Zach Mettenberger has not performed as well as the Tigers faithful hoped, while the OL/running game has also been a little subpar for their talent and expectations.  LSU still controls their own fate in the SEC West – beat #1 Alabama at home in early November, and take care of the rest of their business, and they will earn that SEC Championship game invite.  I expect an inspired effort this weekend vs. #4 South Carolina – and this game is absolute must see TV if you are into strong and tough defenses.

#9 Florida State Seminoles (5-1, #2): it happened again to HC Jimbo Fisher and Florida State – they blew another game they had no interest losing, and once again it was unranked NC State that knocked them off.  There were signs a loss was possibly on the horizon after a tougher than expected home win over # 13 Clemson, and a non-cover closer than expected win at South Florida the week before.  But like many of the teams ahead of them, FSU still controls their ACC fate – and let’s be honest here, the ACC isn’t exactly home to a bunch of heavyweights.  The ‘Noles do not have another ranked ACC team on their schedule and figure to be double digit favorites moving forward besides the finale at home vs. #3 Florida.  That game will not have ACC impact, but this old school battle could have extremely significant ramifications on the BCS Championship for one or both teams.

#10 Georgia Bulldogs (5-1, #3): like #9 FSU there was blood in the water before their blow-out loss to #4 S. Carolina on Saturday.  Whether it be uninspired defensive efforts vs. Buffalo & Florida Atlantic, the very tight win over Tennessee the week before, the Dawgs poor record vs. good teams the last few seasons, and their poor record vs. SC of late, the loss Saturday should not have come as a shock – maybe the final score, sure, but not the loss.  But, even with that loss, all is not lost per say.  UGA once again avoids #1 Alabama, #8 LSU and #21 Mississippi State from the West, the only three ranked teams from the opposite division, and will still face #3 Florida on a neutral field.  If Georgia can take care of the rest of their games, and finish 11-1, it’s still very possible they win the SEC East and get a chance to face Alabama in the SEC Championship Game – and in a one game scenario anything can happen.  I still really like this roster and think they will play a little looser with a chip on their shoulder for the remainder of the season, and could be dangerous.

#11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-0, #8): the Irish sitting at 5-0 frankly doesn’t surprise me one bit – I was very bullish on this team heading into the season, and was also equally bearish on #23 Michigan and Michigan State, their two biggest wins so far on the young season.  All that being said ND still has a tough remaining schedule – no tougher than many of the teams above them – but still tough facing road games at #7 Oklahoma & #16 USC, along with a home game vs. #20 Stanford.  Throw in BYU and Pitt in South Bend, and ND will have to bring it most weeks from here on out to run the table.  Seems very unlikely, but I do expect ND to earn a BCS bowl invite.  Sure will be interesting to see how things play out if ND runs the table and it sitting at 12-0….what 11-1 teams would be more deserving, if any, to play for the National Title?

#12 Ohio State Buckeyes (6-0, #16): new HC Urban Meyer’s Buckeyes are very quietly playing good football, sitting at 6-0.  It is probably more quiet than usual because OSU is ineligible to play for a Big Ten or National Title, but that doesn’t mean they cannot use this season as a launching pad for bigger and better things once the sanctions expire.  OSU only has one remaining game vs. a ranked team, #23 Michigan to close the season; not only that, their road games are Indiana, Penn State and Wisconsin – not exactly tough.  I do not see many ways Ohio State loses more than one game for the rest of their season – which would be good enough for a BCS berth in any other year.  This isn’t vintage OSU, but for their fans, they have to be thrilled with what Meyer is accomplishing with the current roster – and licking their chops for what he will accomplish once he gets a few recruiting classes in Columbus.

#13 Clemson Tigers (5-1, #12): I remain a hair more bullish on Clemson than most of the rest of the country as I like their offense a lot, and think QB Tahj Boyd is one of the very best signal callers in the country.  Yes, they clearly have holes, as were exposed at #9 Florida State two weeks ago, but playing in the ACC, and looking at their remaining schedule that only features two road games @ Wake Forest and @ Duke, the Tigers should handle the rest of their business and finish 10-1 when ACC play is complete –then is the big matchup with #4 South Carolina to close the season, a game that could have BCS bowl implications.  It’s too tough at this point to make a prediction on that game because we need to see what occurs the rest of the season, but expect it to be a barn burner and have heavy implications.

#14 Oregon State Beavers (4-0, #25): along with #18 Rutgers there is not a more surprise, undefeated team in the country than the Beavers from Corvallis – who are trying to steal some of the thunder that is usually centered on their in-state rival, Oregon.  Only four games into their season, OSU has proven they can do it both ways – winning defensive battles 10-7 and 19-6, or offensive type games with wins 27-20 and 38-35, both of which were road Pac 12 games.  Their schedule only has two more road Pac 12 games, both of which are manageable @ Washington and @ #20 Stanford.  They miss #16 USC in cross-over action, and get both #19 Arizona State and #2 Oregon at home.  Do not sleep on Oregon State – potentially winning the North division as Oregon has to travel to USC, and the annual Civil War is in Corvallis this season.  The Beavers are plenty experienced to give anyone a run for their money in conference play, led by big shot QB Sean Mannion.

#15 Texas Longhorns (4-1, #10): where has Mac Brown’s defense gone?  Wow!  All the talk around Texas leading up to the season was how strong their defense was, how that defense could be the “difference” in a conference where defense is traditionally “optional”.  But make no mistake it has not played out as expected, with Texas getting gashed for 112pts on their last 3 games!  However, all that being said, Texas is still right smack in the Big 12 race, and has a favorable schedule remaining, especially after this week’s Red River Shootout – home games vs. Baylor, #24 Iowa State, TCU, along with road trips to Kansas and Texas Tech all lead to the finale in Manhattan vs. #5 Kansas State.  If Texas could find a way to beat #7 Oklahoma this week, the conference title may be right in their hands in that last game vs. K-State.

#16 USC Trojans (4-1, #13): let’s be honest here, the Trojans have not looked solid in any game all season besides maybe the opener vs. Hawaii – but we all know how terrible Hawaii is, so taking that into context, I wouldn’t even put the USC 49-10 win in the impressive category.  But we all know by now impressive doesn’t earn conference championships, and from that standpoint, USC is still very much alive and perhaps even still favored to win the South division.  But, a closer look at their schedule, and I just find it hard to believe USC will play well enough during an extended stretch of tougher than expected games to earn a BCS bowl invite – but the Pac 12 South is still very possible.  The five game stretch that will determine their season: @ Arizona, #2 Oregon, #19 Arizona State, @ UCLA, #11 Notre Dame.  That is A LOT tougher now than it looked on September 1^st I can guarantee you that.  It will be interesting to see what the impact of inconsistent play, and a lack of depth have on the USC final record, and frankly Matt Barkley’s SC legacy.

#17 Louisville Cardinals (5-0, #17): the last time we saw the Cardinals (uh, did we even see them) was in a monsoon at Southern Mississippi two weeks ago, where they came out on top 21-17 in a much closer than expected game.  The weather was some of the reason, but was talent and execution also a piece of that puzzle?  That is what must be determined as the Cardinals commence their Big East schedule this coming weekend in Pittsburgh.  The top of the Big East, Louisville, #18 Rutgers and #25 Cincinnati is perhaps stronger than most expected – and what’s great is it will all play itself out in a round robin format with no championship game.  At this point I expect the season finale between Louisville and Rutgers in Piscataway to crown the Big East champion, and today give a very small edge to Rutgers due to home field advantage.

#18 Rutgers Scarlet Knights (5-0, #20): I doubt there was anyone in the entire country, even the most kool-aid drinking Rutgers fan on this planet that had RU sitting at 5-0 at this point.  Yeah, Arkansas was a disaster when they played a few weeks ago – but hey, it’s still Arkansas, still suppose to be the lowly Big East vs. the big bad SEC – in the SEC team’s stadium no less.  But Rutgers went right in there and swaggered out with an impressive win.  Perhaps even more impressive was how the team remained focused and easily dispatched UConn in their very next game 19-3 – that is a sign of a championship caliber team.  The Scarlet Knights have a tough trifecta to close the year: @ #25 Cincinnati, @ Pittsburgh, #18 Louisville at home – those three will decide their fate.

#19 Arizona State Sun Devils (4-1, N5): talk about a team coming out of nowhere, a team I had pegged for the worst in the Pac 12 no less.  ASU has been mighty impressive this season, even in their lone loss of the season @ Missouri (yes, realizing Mizzou was without their starting QB for the game) wasn’t too bad at all – it could even be argued they outplayed the Tigers, especially at the line of scrimmage.  The Sun Devils sit at a cool 4-1, and have exceeded all expectations for the season – but, unfortunately, things may catch up with them very soon – their schedule coming up is an absolute bear with #2 Oregon & UCLA at home, and three road games at #14 Oregon State, #16 USC and Arizona – they could go 0-5 in those to be honest.  But they only need a pair of wins to go bowling, and with a visit to Colorado and home game vs. Washington State rounding out their remaining slate, that seems like a strong possibility which would be a great opening act for Todd Graham in the desert.

#20 Stanford Cardinal (4-1, #11): while Stanford sits at 4-1 they could EASILY be 1-4.  While I gave HC David Shaw the props he deserved following their win over #16 USC, he was back to the same old David Shaw the very next week with incredibly odd play calling/game planning which led to a loss at Washington – a team they thoroughly outplayed at the line of scrimmage, but decided to only give their best player RB Stepfan Taylor the ball 28 times vs. 37 passes for QB Josh Nunes in his first start away from home (also sharing blame is OC Pep Hamilton).  For an encore his vaunted defense yielded 48 points to visiting Arizona, and if it wasn’t for a late 4^th quarter comeback, that would have been a home loss to an unranked team as a double digit favorite.  For my money Stanford is perfect fade material the second half of the season as they are not very talented, and they will be at a disadvantage nearly every week from both strategy and play calling perspectives on the sidelines.

#21 Mississippi State Bulldogs (5-0, N5): has there ever been a 5-0 SEC team that has received less publicity than this year’s Mississippi State Bulldogs?  Truth is it may be warranted as their best win so far is either at home over Auburn, or at Kentucky – neither is much to write home about.  However, all that being said, MSU’s schedule could not get any easier as an SEC team as they miss #3 Florida, #10 Georgia and #4 South Carolina from the East, and do not burn a home game on either #1 Alabama or #8 LSU – games they would lose no matter where it took place.  If they got every break possible MSU could finish 10-2, with losses to Alabama and LSU.  If they got no breaks whatsoever they could finish 7-5, still bowl eligible.  They will probably finish somewhere in the middle, maybe an 8-4 year – which would be strong for the Dawgs in what was thought to be a rebuilding season after losing their QB and RB from last season.

#22 Nevada Wolfpack (5-1, N5): Nevada is the first and only non-BCS conference team in the PP this week, so good for them.  Truth is this team could be 6-0 if not for a last second comeback by USF in Reno a few weeks ago.  The MWC is tough at the top this season as Boise State is not the lock of a favorite they would be in many years (but are still formidable), and Fresno State is also a legitimate team that could make some noise.  The round robin between that trio will be solid entertaining football, and it takes place towards the end of the season.

#23 Michigan Wolverines (3-2, NR): the only two loss team in the rankings are the Wolverines, who easily dispatched Purdue in West Lafayette this past weekend  44-13 – keep in mind that was a Purdue team many had picked to win either the Big Ten, or the Leaders Division.  UM will easily handle Illinois in the Big House this weekend, then comes the visit from Sparty – who has beaten the Wolverines three straight.  The truth about Michigan is they have always remained the best Big Ten team, despite their losses vs. #1 Alabama and #11 Notre Dame – and at the end of the season, for good or bad, they are likely to win the Big Ten Championship in Indianapolis and receive the Big Ten’s Rose Bowl berth.

#24 Iowa State Cyclones (4-1, NR): it was tough to fill out the last few teams in the PP this week, but ISU gets the nod for one of those spots due to playing good competition, and having a pair of BCS conference road wins over Iowa and TCU.  How long they hang on to a spot remains to be seen – and it could be very short lived as the Cyclones host #5 Kansas State this weekend in Ames.  But keep an eye on this match-up, it could be one of the sneaky good games of the weekend.

#25 Cincinnati Bearcats (4-0, NR): hard to believe three Big East teams are in the PP this week, but the undefeated Bearcats earned the nod for the final spot with their wins over Pitt, Virginia Tech and Miami, Ohio.  Cincy doesn’t get started with their 6 game Big East schedule until October 26^th when they visit #17 Louisville.  Before then they should pick up a win this week over Fordham, then have a tricky test at Toledo.  Keep an eye on Cincinnati as they look to crash the Louisville/Rutgers Big East party.

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NFL 2012: Week Four Review

Interesting, another week of action, and my preface to last week’s column still remains accurate: After four weeks of action only three teams remain unbeaten – HOU, ATL & ARI; while a pair are winless – NO & CLE.  Yes, in Wk4, the unbeaten squads won again, two in dramatic fashion, while the winless squads both lost again – and both of those were one score games as well.  What is new, and a positive, is the officials signed an agreement to get back on the field, which took place this past weekend – that is surely a ton of good news.  Let’s jump right into the numbers…..

Performance Ratings (max grade is 160, 80 on offense and 80 on defense, calculated using 16 different stats with 5 points per stat being the best score = 16x5 = 80). 

		OFFENSE			DEFENSE			TOTAL TEAM			Blended
Wins		Rating	Rank		Rating	Rank		Rating	Rank		SOS
4	HOU	52.4	4		50.1	2		102.5	1		21
3	SF	47.9	7		49.0	5		96.9	2		17
3	PHI	45.0	12		51.0	1		96.0	3		23
2	DEN	50.5	5		45.1	8		95.6	4		9
2	NE	57.5	1		37.6	17		95.1	5		24
1	MIA	39.6	20		50.0	3		89.6	6		25
3	BAL	49.8	6		39.6	13		89.4	7		11
4	ATL	52.9	3		34.1	22		87.0	8		15
3	CHI	37.5	22		49.5	4		87.0	8		26
2	GB	42.4	16		44.4	9		86.8	10		10
3	MIN	42.3	17		43.6	11		85.9	11		27
2	WAS	55.3	2		29.6	27		84.9	12		32
3	SD	42.8	15		41.6	12		84.4	13		31
2	SEA	35.9	24		48.5	6		84.4	13		19
1	PIT	46.3	9		36.3	20		82.7	15		12
2	NYG	45.8	10		36.6	19		82.4	16		22
1	KC	44.9	13		37.4	18		82.3	17		20
2	DAL	37.8	21		44.1	10		81.9	18		14
1	DET	41.4	18		39.1	14		80.5	19		13
3	CIN	45.6	11		33.5	23		79.1	20		28
2	BUF	47.0	8		30.8	26		77.8	21		30
4	ARI	30.4	30		45.9	7		76.3	22		4
2	STL	34.1	26		38.0	16		72.1	23		8
1	CAR	43.9	14		27.9	29		71.8	24		29
1	IND	37.5	22		33.3	24		70.8	25		2
1	TB	31.6	28		39.0	15		70.6	26		19
1	JAC	34.4	25		29.3	28		63.6	27		7
0	CLE	27.3	32		35.4	21		62.6	28		4
2	NYJ	29.8	31		32.3	25		62.0	29		7
0	NO	40.3	19		21.5	31		61.8	30		16
1	TEN	34.1	26		21.1	32		55.3	31		1
1	OAK	31.4	29		23.0	30		54.4	32		5

As promised last week we are now showing our “blended SOS” rating for each team, which is a weighted average of opponent’s performance ratings and opponent’s record.  Using that piece of information along with where team’s actually stack up in the ratings can assist in determining true performance – if we look at DEN, they check in #4 in the performance ratings this week, only trailing NE by 0.4 rating points per game; if we then adjust for SOS, where DEN is #9 while NE is #23, thru the first four weeks of the season DEN has actually performed better than NE has.  I continue to work on a formula where that information can be used to show an SOS adjusted performance rating.

Biggest movers from last week (+/- 4 or more spots):

• Risers: DEN +15 (#19 to #4), WAS +8 (#20 to #12), SF/CHI/GB/CIN +4
• Decliners: BUF -13 (#8 to #21), NYG -11 (#5 to #16), DAL -8 (#10 to #18), ATL/TB/NYJ -4

DEN played the best game of the season thus far, posting a 137 score in their 37-6 rout of rival OAK.  The Broncos are definitely a team to keep an eye on because as mentioned last week, their two losses came to a pair of the undefeated squads, and they have now outplayed 3 of 4 opponents including Wk2’s loss to ATL.  HOU remained at the top of the ratings, the only team to average triple digits per game on the season.  With the SOS remaining for the Texans (#21 opponents record, #24 opponents performance ratings) they certainly appear to be a very likely candidate to finish at the top of the ratings come the end of the season.  At #2 is SF, giving us a 1-2 punch of HOU-SF, which makes sense as most people believe those two are the cream of the NFL crop at this point.  PHI remains in the Top 3 buoyed by a strong defense that is rated #1 in the NFL.  A pair of surprise teams at #11/#12 in MIN/WAS continue playing well – but keep an eye on their SOS as it currently sits among the easiest of the teams rated around and above them, and both teams are well within the top ten of remaining SOS in both opponents record and opponents performance ratings – we could see a correction coming very soon.  ARI, easily the lowest rated of the trio of undefeated teams, actually slipped a spot to #22 after being badly outplayed vs. MIA on Sunday to the tune of 96-65; it led to their first ATS loss of the season, even with the line dropping some 2.5-3 points during the week – more could be right around the corner, especially considering their remaining SOS is rated #2 based on opponents record, and #6 based on opponents performance ratings.  CAR slid up from #27 to #24 after a gut wrenching loss to ATL on Sunday, but a closer look at their performance ratings tells a story of concern – their season to date SOS of #29 is easily the most favorable schedule of the bottom 11 teams in the ratings.  Coming into the season I talked about being bullish on the Panthers this season, believing their offense would remain among the best in the league, and their defense would improve because of less injuries – their defense has not performed well at all, rating #29 in the league so far, including #31 vs. the rush.  Lastly, we have a new team bringing up the rear, OAK.  As mentioned above they were hammered in Denver Sunday, leaving them alone at the bottom with an average performance rating of just 54.4/gm.  Things are not going well in OAK, which has really been the story for the better part of the last decade.

As far as conference and divisional breakdowns, while last week the NFC had 4 of the top 6 spots, now the AFC holds down 5 of the top 7, following the drop backs of ATL and NYG.  On the flip side 6 of the bottom 8 teams are also from the AFC – which means there are some very good teams, but also some very bad ones in the AFC – and we can see that as the playoff picture continues to shape up (discussed below).  The NFC East has the highest rated worst team with DAL checking in at #18, while the NFC North is just behind with DET at #19.

Next up, here are my projected standings after Wk4.  As a reminder, this process involves playing out the entire season based on my power ratings for each team.  For more information on this topic and process, and to see how accurate this exercise has been in the past, please read this blog entry from July 31.

AFC East	Wins	Loss		NFC East	Wins	Loss
NE	9.11	6.89		PHI	10.05	5.96
NYJ	7.95	8.05		DAL	8.24	7.76
BUF	7.45	8.55		NYG	8.13	7.87
MIA	7.35	8.65		WAS	7.26	8.74
AFC North				NFC North
BAL	9.81	6.19		GB	9.18	6.82
CIN	8.62	7.38		CHI	8.91	7.09
PIT	8.49	7.52		MIN	8.46	7.55
CLE	4.16	11.84		DET	7.11	8.89
AFC South				NFC South
HOU	13.06	2.94		ATL	11.28	4.72
IND	6.45	9.56		CAR	7.08	8.92
JAC	5.28	10.72		TB	5.81	10.19
TEN	5.22	10.78		NO	5.23	10.77
AFC West				NFC West
SD	9.81	6.19		SF	11.16	4.85
DEN	9.40	6.60		ARI	9.50	6.50
KC	6.23	9.77		SEA	8.41	7.59
OAK	5.25	10.75		STL	6.57	9.43
Playoffs				Playoffs
#6 CIN @ #3 SD				#6 CHI @ #3 PHI
#5 DEN @ #4 NE				#5 ARI @ #4 GB
#1 HOU				#1 ATL
#2 BAL				#2 SF

Following Wk4 games I have adjusted the power ratings for 6 teams, 3 up and 3 down as I always keep the proper balance within my ratings.  After updating for last week’s action, and the power rating changes just mentioned, there are just two teams that moved up or down 1 projected win:

• DOWN: NYJ (1.2), OAK (1.2)

As far as changes to my playoff projections, the AFC has one new playoff team, CIN, whom replaced the NYJ, whom just got in last week.  Most of the seeds also stayed static – the only differences were related to the change of teams in prior point.  As we can see however, the AFC playoff picture appears to be taking shape, even this early in the season.  It looks like there are 7 teams that will be in the mix for 6 spots – remember how accurate this exercise has been over the years, very few times are there big time surprises, especially once we get about half way into the season.    In the NFC we also only saw one team change, and it was directly driven by the result of MNF with CHI dispatching DAL and sliding up into the #6 and final spot.  The NFC certainly has a little more flexibility, and teams that will battle it out for a playoff spot as the season continues – but one thing is for sure, the NFC South, a division many looked at as the best in football heading into the season, really has its work cut out for it outside ATL if they want to make a run to the playoffs.

In the race for the 1^st pick in the 2013 NFL draft the Browns remained ahead of the Titans & Jaguars – as it currently stands, CLE has about a 1.5-1.75 calibrated games edge on their closest chasers.

Last analysis for this week (I will post each week just like the standings above) is my power rankings.  My rankings are comprised of a pair of numbers: one measures team performance in my performance ratings (discussed in the opener of this entry); two measures team performance vs. the spread.  These two ratings are weighted and combined for my official power rankings.  For my blog I will only provide the order of the teams, not the actual power ranking as that is for my eyes only because it is used in my weekly handicapping process as potential model plays, which are currently 2-0 on season in games I released, and 7-0 overall including games I left off early in season although they fit the criteria (there has not been a model play in either Wk3 or Wk4):

1	HOU
2	SF
3	NE
4	ATL
5	DEN
6	BAL
7	GB
8	PHI
9	SD
10	PIT
11	SEA
12	NYG
13	DAL
14	CHI
15	ARI
16	CAR
17	NYJ
18	DET
18	MIA
20	NO
21	MIN
22	WAS
23	CIN
24	BUF
25	STL
26	IND
27	TB
27	KC
29	OAK
30	TEN
30	JAC
32	CLE

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