Monday, February 23, 2015

NCAAB 2015: SBPI [SportsBoss Power Index] through Sunday February 22


Here is the 2014-2015 College Basketball SBPI ratings covering action through Sunday February 22 (NON-ADJ RANK = pure statistical rating prior to SOS adjustment; SUM is rating for team & can be compared to prior season’s in my Top 100 of last 12 year’s blog entry; RANK = rankings of each team’s SOS Adjusted performance; KP = Ken Pomeroy’s Rankings; BPI = ESPN’s Basketball Power Index Rankings; RPI = Ratings Power Index Rankings; SAG = Jeff Sagarin’s Rankings):


NON-ADJ

ADJ RATINGS





Team
RANK

SUM
RANK

KP
BPI
RPI
SAG
Kentucky
3

409.3
1

1
1
2
1
Duke
7

407.2
2

8
7
4
4
Butler
7

400.0
3

23
24
24
20
Villanova
5

397.2
4

6
6
5
7
Arizona
2

390.0
5

3
5
7
6
Baylor
20

383.3
6

12
19
14
15
Kansas
69

379.1
7

9
8
1
9
Wisconsin
10

378.7
8

4
3
6
3
Louisville
12

367.3
9

19
11
18
14
West Virginia
18

360.1
10

24
23
23
19
Utah
15

359.1
11

7
10
11
8
Florida
56

357.6
12

35
32


Oklahoma State
65

357.6
13

30

29
28
Providence
45

349.8
14

33
36
21
29
Virginia
32

344.8
15

2
2
3
2
VCU
22

343.5
16

28
21
12
25
Georgetown
71

339.4
17

20
20
21
22
North Carolina
112

338.8
18

15
9
13
11
Gonzaga
13

336.2
19

5
4
8
5
Xavier
52

335.0
20

26
25
30
24
Oklahoma
86

334.7
21

10
17
15
12
Iowa State
67

334.0
22

14
16
9
10
South Carolina
86

332.7
23





Wichita State
4

330.6
24

13
12
16
16
Texas
71

328.9
25

21
29

21
Iowa
44

326.2
26

27


27
Ohio State
11

325.8
27

18
14

17
Arkansas
15

323.9
28

29
22
19
26
Michigan State
34

323.8
29

17
18
28
18
UCLA
115

322.4
30





Stanford
49

316.4
31

36



Georgia Tech
92

316.4
32





North Carolina State
81

310.9
33


34

36
Seton Hall
112

309.2
34





Illinois
56

308.3
35





Brigham Young
24

305.7
36

31
27



I have included the Top 36 teams in the SBPI this week & will continue that format going forward.  Why?  I figured there are 32 automatic bids & 36 at-large bids given out on Selection Sunday – so including my Top 36 here can give a good feel for if your team has what it takes to potentially earn an at-large come mid-March.  In this installment I have also added in the Non-SOS adjusted rating for each team as that can be valuable information – it shows which teams are boosted a ton by their SOS vs. teams that perhaps have played well & have a solid SOS.  Let’s touch on Butler for example: they are ranked #3 in SBPI (a lot higher than everyone would expect) yet they also rank #7 in non-SOS adjusted SBPI meaning their statistics that I utilize in this model match up with just about every other team in the country – meaning I am comfortable with that high a mark for Butler.  On the flip side let’s look at Kansas – they are just #69 in non-SOS adjusted ranking suggesting most of their plus in SBPI (and RPI also where they rank #1) is SOS boost; their statistics are not matching up well with other top teams.  By providing the non-SOS adjusted ranking it adds another layer to analyze & matchup between teams.  In addition to those two teams Florida & Oklahoma State have very similar profiles – the biggest difference is the Gators have struggled in close games this season while the Cowboys are winning their fair share.

Here are additional teams of note that did not make the SBPI Top 36 but were ranked inside Top 36 by at least one of the other four sources:

#38 Pittsburgh (RPI #36)
#39 Texas A&M (BPI #35)
#42 Purdue (SAG #33)
#45 Temple (RPI #31)
#46 Georgia (BPI #30, RPI #34)
#47 San Diego State (KP #25, RPI #25, SAG #32)
#48 Ole Miss (KP #32, BPI #28, RPI #33)
#51 Indiana (RPI #32, SAG #34)
#54 Maryland (BPI #31, RPI #10, SAG #30)
#57 Dayton (RPI #35)
#68 SMU (KP #22, BPI #26, RPI #17, SAG #31)
#75 LSU (KP #34)
#78 Northern Iowa (KP #11, BPI #13, RPI #20, SAG #23)
#82 Colorado State (RPI #27)
#86 Davidson (BPI #33, SAG #35)
#87 Notre Dame (KP #16, BPI #15, RPI #26, SAG #13)

Next up let’s take a look where each of the current Top 36 in SBPI ranked in the past six week’s we have published:

Team
18-Jan
25-Jan
1-Feb
8-Feb
15-Feb
22-Feb
Kentucky
1
1
2
2
1
1
Duke
5
5
1
1
2
2
Butler
4
3
4
7
6
3
Villanova
3
4
3
3
3
4
Arizona
11
7
6
4
7
5
Baylor
9
6
7
8
4
6
Kansas
2
2
5
5
5
7
Wisconsin
16
9
9
9
9
8
Louisville
12
12
8
6
8
9
West Virginia
15
15
18
13
10
10
Utah
14
11
12
12
13
11
Florida
19
16
15
14
11
12
Oklahoma State
13
17
22
16
12
13
Providence
20
20
21
18
18
14
Virginia
10
14
13
10
14
15
VCU
6
8
10
11
15
16
Georgetown
36
25
23
19
16
17
North Carolina
17
18
16
17
20
18
Gonzaga
8
13
20
21
22
19
Xavier
18
19
14
20
17
20
Oklahoma
26
22
17
22
25
21
Iowa State
31
34
33
29
27
22
South Carolina
32
24
19
24
23
23
Wichita State
7
10
11
15
19
24
Texas
35
36
26
26
29
25
Iowa
28
29
27
25
28
26
Ohio State
27
35
32
27
26
27
Arkansas
30
31
25
28
21
28
Michigan State
25
27
28
37
32
29
UCLA
34
28
24
23
24
30
Stanford
33
30
30
33
31
31
Georgia Tech
40
38
35
31
33
32
North Carolina State
23
26
36
38
30
33
Seton Hall
29
37
29
32
39
34
Illinois
38
32
39
39
38
35
Brigham Young
21
23
31
30
34
36

Strength of conference & breakdown of Top 36 by conference:

RANK
CONFERENCE
AVG RATING
TOP 36
1
B12
328.9
7
2
BE
314.8
6
3
ACC
293.8
6
4
SEC
288.8
4
5
B10
287.7
5
6
P12
279.1
4
7
WCC
253.6
2
8
A10
240.6
1
9
MVC
229.0
1
10
AAC
221.6

11
MAC
218.6

12
HORIZON
216.1

13
MWC
209.6

14
BIG WEST
204.6

15
IVY
202.2

16
CUSA
186.1

17
CAA
176.0

18
OVC
175.4

19
SUMMIT
174.6

20
SUN BELT
170.9

21
SOCON
168.3

22
MAAC
168.2

23
BIG SOUTH
166.5

24
PATRIOT
166.1

25
INDEPENDENT
161.2

26
SOUTHLAND
160.4

27
BIG SKY
159.1

28
NEC
150.1

29
AMER EAST
147.6

30
ASUN
140.4

31
WAC
140.3

32
MEAC
129.7

33
SWAC
109.3


Next up let’s look at the Top 20 non-Power 6 (ACC, B12, B10, BE, P12, SEC) conference teams:


ADJ RATINGS





Team
SUM
RANK

KP
BPI
RPI
SAG
VCU
343.5
16

28
21
12
25
Gonzaga
336.2
19

5
4
8
5
Wichita State
330.6
24

13
12
16
16
Brigham Young
305.7
36

31
27


Yale
295.4
43





Temple
291.5
45



31

San Diego State
289.8
47

25

25
32
Illinois State
288.0
50





Boise State
279.0
56





Dayton
278.7
57



35

Buffalo
275.2
58





Saint Mary's
270.6
62





Portland
269.7
63





Cincinnati
268.2
65





Tulsa
267.2
66





Southern Methodist
266.2
68

22
26
17
31
Green Bay
263.3
69





Rhode Island
261.3
71





Richmond
260.7
72





San Diego
260.1
73







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