Monday, February 9, 2015

NCAAB 2015: SBPI [SportsBoss Power Index] through Sunday February 8



Here is our third installment of the 2014-2015 College Basketball SBPI ratings covering action through Sunday February 8 (SUM is rating for team & can be compared to prior season’s in my Top 100 of last 12 year’s blog entry; RANK = rankings of each team’s SOS Adjusted performance; KP = Ken Pomeroy’s Rankings; BPI = ESPN’s Basketball Power Index Rankings; RPI = Ratings Power Index Rankings; SAG = Jeff Sagarin’s Rankings):


ADJ RATINGS





Team
SUM
RANK

KP
BPI
RPI
SAG
Duke
412.5
1

8
7
4
4
Kentucky
408.1
2

1
1
2
1
Villanova
394.2
3

7
6
5
6
Arizona
392.5
4

3
5
7
7
Kansas
388.0
5

12
10
1
10
Louisville
385.1
6

11
8
12
9
Butler
382.9
7

18
19
17
18
Baylor
381.0
8

10
17
11
13
Wisconsin
371.5
9

6
4
6
3
Virginia
367.3
10

2
2
3
2
VCU
355.2
11

24
21
9
21
Utah
352.3
12

5
11
13
8
West Virginia
345.7
13

20
20
25
19
Florida
343.3
14

35
32


Wichita State
341.5
15

15
15
18
17
Oklahoma State
341.5
16

21
33
28
22
North Carolina
340.8
17

13
9
10
12
Providence
339.2
18



20
31
Georgetown
339.1
19

25
24
21
23
Xavier
336.7
20

26
23
34
26
Gonzaga
335.9
21

4
3
8
5
Oklahoma
334.1
22

9
13
15
11
UCLA
328.9
23





South Carolina
327.0
24





Iowa
325.7
25

27


27
Texas
324.7
26

22
29
31
20
Ohio State
323.5
27

14
12
33
15
Arkansas
318.8
28

30
25
24
28
Iowa State
314.9
29

19
18
14
16
Brigham Young
313.6
30


35


Georgia Tech
312.6
31





Seton Hall
310.6
32





Stanford
308.6
33

32
34

32
San Diego State
308.5
34

34

30
33
Yale
305.9
35





Arizona State
305.6
36






I have included the Top 36 teams in the SBPI this week & will continue that format going forward.  Why?  I figured there are 32 automatic bids & 36 at-large bids given out on Selection Sunday – so including my Top 36 here can give a good feel for if your team has what it takes to potentially earn an at-large come mid-March.

Here are additional teams of note that did not make the SBPI Top 36 but were ranked inside Top 36 by at least one of the other four sources:

#37 Michigan State (KP #28, BPI #26, SAG #25)
#40 Texas A&M (BPI #36, RPI #35)
#42 Purdue (SAG #35)
#45 Georgia (KP #33, BPI #22, RPI #22, SAG #34)
#47 Indiana (RPI #32, SAG #36)
#48 Maryland (BPI #31, RPI #16, SAG #29)
#49 Ole Miss (KP #29, BPI #30, RPI #36)
#57 Dayton (BPI #28)
#67 SMU (KP #23, BPI #27, RPI #22, SAG #30)
#72 Cincinnati (KP #31, RPI #29)
#78 Northern Iowa (KP #16, BPI #14, RPI #19, SAG #24)
#80 Colorado State (RPI #27)
#93 Notre Dame (KP #17, BPI #16, RPI #26, SAG #14)
#101 Stephen F. Austin (KP #36)

Next this week is the variance report that shows team’s movement over the last week.  Today we will show team’s that had a 40 spot or greater change in their ranking inclusive of all conferences:

Team
1-Feb
8-Feb
Change
North Carolina Central
145
202
(57)
Fresno State
137
178
(41)
Texas Christian
133
92
41

Next up let’s take a look where each of the current Top 36 in SBPI ranked in the past four week’s we have published:

Team
18-Jan
25-Jan
1-Feb
8-Feb
Duke
5
5
1
1
Kentucky
1
1
2
2
Villanova
3
4
3
3
Arizona
11
7
6
4
Kansas
2
2
5
5
Louisville
12
12
8
6
Butler
4
3
4
7
Baylor
9
6
7
8
Wisconsin
16
9
9
9
Virginia
10
14
13
10
VCU
6
8
10
11
Utah
14
11
12
12
West Virginia
15
15
18
13
Florida
19
16
15
14
Wichita State
7
10
11
15
Oklahoma State
13
17
22
16
North Carolina
17
18
16
17
Providence
20
20
21
18
Georgetown
36
25
23
19
Xavier
18
19
14
20
Gonzaga
8
13
20
21
Oklahoma
26
22
17
22
UCLA
34
28
24
23
South Carolina
32
24
19
24
Iowa
28
29
27
25
Texas
35
36
26
26
Ohio State
27
35
32
27
Arkansas
30
31
25
28
Iowa State
31
34
33
29
Brigham Young
21
23
31
30
Georgia Tech
40
38
35
31
Seton Hall
29
37
29
32
Stanford
33
30
30
33
San Diego State
22
21
34
34
Yale
24
39
37
35
Arizona State
50
33
38
36

Strength of conference & breakdown of Top 36 by conference:

RANK
CONFERENCE
AVG RATING
TOP 36
1
B12
317.5
7
2
BE
312.7
6
3
ACC
289.5
5
4
SEC
284.9
4
5
B10
284.1
3
6
P12
275.6
5
7
WCC
251.1
2
8
A10
244.1
1
9
MVC
227.7
1
10
HORIZON
218.8

11
AAC
216.2

12
MAC
215.9

13
MWC
208.6
1
14
BIG WEST
207.7

15
IVY
200.4
1
16
CUSA
189.2

17
OVC
180.9

18
CAA
177.2

19
SUMMIT
175.0

20
SUN BELT
173.9

21
SOCON
173.2

22
BIG SOUTH
171.6

23
PATRIOT
166.5

24
MAAC
164.8

25
SOUTHLAND
164.7

26
BIG SKY
163.4

27
NEC
152.3

28
AMER EAST
151.4

29
INDEPENDENT
150.0

30
WAC
147.4

31
ASUN
145.9

32
MEAC
138.9

33
SWAC
122.3


The Big 12 has taken over the top conference rank from the Big East with an average rating of 317.5 for the 10 teams in their conference.  By looking at the first matrix in this article we can see that 317.5 average rating would fall between the 28th best team in country Arkansas & the 29th best team in the country Iowa State.  

Next up let’s look at the Top 20 non-Power 6 (ACC, B12, B10, BE, P12, SEC) conference teams:


ADJ RATINGS





Team
SUM
RANK

KP
BPI
RPI
SAG
VCU
355.2
11

24
21
9
21
Wichita State
341.5
15

15
15
18
17
Gonzaga
335.9
21

4
3
8
5
Brigham Young
313.6
30


35


San Diego State
308.5
34

34

30
33
Yale
305.9
35





Illinois State
290.4
41





Boise State
276.9
52





Richmond
272.3
55





Dayton
271.4
57


28


George Washington
270.0
60





Temple
269.0
61





Portland
267.4
62





Tulsa
266.9
63





La Salle
265.4
65





Buffalo
264.3
66





Southern Methodist
261.5
67

23
27
22
30
Saint Mary's
261.2
69





Harvard
260.0
71





Cincinnati
259.4
72

31

29


Examining this group closer as far as NCAA Tournament at-large bids go it’s unlikely any teams outside the Top 3 (VCU, Wichita State, and Gonzaga) would earn an at-large bid should they lose in their conference tournament – especially if that loss came before the championship game.  San Diego State, ranked 4th in this matrix, still has a shot at earning that at-large should they lose in the MWC Tournament, but this is not a vintage Aztecs club of recent memory.  

Lastly here are the Bottom 10 teams according to College Basketball SBPI:


ADJ RATINGS
Team
SUM
RANK
Maine
102.6
342
Liberty
102.4
343
UMBC
96.2
344
Stetson
93.1
345
Kennesaw State
91.3
346
Mississippi Valley State
86.4
347
Grambling State
84.2
348
Central Connecticut State
79.8
349
Central Arkansas
67.7
350
Florida A&M
63.5
351


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