This is our third installment of bracketology for the 2015
NCAA Tournament and comes as we wrap up the first weekend of February.
Last week my bracket only had one difference from ESPN's Joe Lunardi
where I had in NC State in the field vs. him having two CUSA teams making the
cut: Old Dominion as an at-large (I had ODU as CUSA automatic bid) and Western
Kentucky as earning the CUSA automatic berth (I did not have Western Kentucky
in mix for an at-large).
Now that we briefly looked back at last week’s difference
(which we will do every week) let’s jump into the latest 2015 projection! Below we breakdown each conference into three
buckets initially (with a fourth bucket “life support” coming in our
next installment along with a more detailed breakdown – see last year’s
Bracketology entries to get a feel for next week’s template):
1) Automatic Bid
2) Looking Good [teams highly
likely to play well enough in the regular season to earn a bid]
3) Need Wins [teams that are firmly
on the bubble and will need to play well to close their season]
**Teams are listed in
the s-curve order I see them now within conference**
**To add some color
to each team I will include their SBPI ranking through action on Thursday
January 29. For one bid leagues I will
also show the SBPI ranking of the best team in the conference that was not
selected as my automatic bid entrant to give a feel for their competition**
**Last key to
remember when looking this over – I always lean towards INCLUDING teams in my
breakdown that have any shot at earning a bid; some listed are extreme
longshots but I would prefer including any potential candidates vs. adding them
later out of blue. Leveraging that idea
further I will lean towards keeping teams in say “Need Wins” versus moving them
up to “Looking Good” till I feel certain they are a lock to earn a bid – do not
want to slide teams down levels, only up.
Many teams are closer to being left off completely versus moving up a
level at this point in the season**
America East: Albany
#212 (Stony Brook #115)
American Athletic:
Cincinnati #57
Looking Good: SMU #73
Need Wins: Tulsa #63, Temple #59, Memphis
#100, UConn #92
Atlantic Ten: VCU
#11
Need Wins: Dayton #69,
George Washington #62, Davidson #61, Rhode Island #87, UMass #95
ACC: Duke #1
Looking Good: Virginia #10, North
Carolina #19, Louisville #8, Notre Dame #107
Need Wins: Miami #52, NC State #35, Clemson
#76, Pittsburgh #54
Atlantic Sun: North
Florida #168 (Florida Gulf Coast #200)
Big 12: Kansas #4
Looking Good: Iowa State #29, West
Virginia #14, Oklahoma #18, Baylor #7
Need Wins: Oklahoma State #17, Texas
#28
Big East: Villanova
#3
Looking Good: Butler #5, Providence
#21, Georgetown #24
Need Wins: Seton Hall #31, Xavier
#15, St. John’s #51
Big Sky: Eastern
Washington #211 (Northern Arizona #164)
Big South: High
Point #138 (Gardner-Webb #135)
Big Ten: Wisconsin
#9
Looking Good: Maryland #60, Indiana
#45
Need Wins: Michigan State #33, Iowa
#25, Ohio State #27, Illinois #41, Purdue #48, Michigan #46, Nebraska #102, Minnesota
#43
Big West: Long
Beach State #82 (Cal Poly #75)
Colonial: William
& Mary #106 (Northeastern #173)
Conference USA: Western
Kentucky #96 (Old Dominion #80)
Horizon: Cleveland
State #74 (Green Bay #83)
Ivy: Yale #36
(Harvard #81)
MAAC: Iona #166
(Canisius #185)
MAC: Buffalo #71 (Toledo
#84)
MEAC: North
Carolina Central #193 (Norfolk State #238)
Missouri Valley: Wichita
State #13
If
WICHITA STATE does not win their conference tournament they would still RECEIVE a bid, thus taking a
spot away from the at-large field. The
Shockers are currently 7-2 vs. RPI Top 100 teams.
Need Wins: Northern Iowa #68
Mountain West: San
Diego State #38
If SAN
DIEGO STATE does not win their conference tournament they would still RECEIVE a bid, thus taking a
spot away from the at-large field. The
Aztecs are currently 5-4 vs. RPI Top 100 teams including a signature win over
RPI #11 Utah earlier in the season.
Need Wins: Colorado State #79, Boise
State #56, Wyoming #195
Northeast: St.
Francis NY #199 (St. Francis PA #205)
Ohio Valley: Murray
State #131 (Eastern Kentucky #85)
Pac 12: Arizona #6
Looking Good: Utah #12
Need Wins: UCLA #20, Stanford #34, Oregon
#90, Washington #121, Oregon State #113
Patriot: Bucknell
#191 (Holy Cross #198)
SEC: Kentucky #2
Looking Good: Arkansas #26, Georgia
#42
Need Wins: LSU #94, Texas A&M
#40, Ole Miss #44, Tennessee #89, Alabama #47, Florida #16
Southern: Wofford
#109 (Chattanooga #159)
Southland: Stephen
F. Austin #98 (Sam Houston State #126)
SWAC: Texas Southern
#236 (Southern #230)
Summit: Oral
Roberts #98 (South Dakota State #158)
Sun Belt: Georgia
Southern #149 (Georgia State #130)
West Coast: Gonzaga
#23
If
GONZAGA does not win their conference tournament they would still RECEIVE a bid, thus taking one
away from the current at-large pool.
Need Wins: St Mary’s #58,
BYU #30
WAC: New Mexico
State #141 (Chicago State #234)
FIELD: 68
AUTOMATIC BIDS: 32
LOOKING GOOD: 17 (unchanged)
Currently I project 49
of the 68 bids are
earned.
NEED WINS: 43 (unchanged)
That leaves 43 teams that are in the mix for 19 open bids.
Keep in mind however that DOES NOT include the upsets we will see during Conference
Tournament week where teams that are LOCKS
from smaller conferences lose a game in their conference tournament and hence use
an at-large bid on themselves.
For the remaining 19 open bids this is the way I see it
currently, which will obviously be very fluid (listed in conference
alphabetical order applying s-curve within conference):
Tulsa (LAST FIVE IN)
Dayton
Miami, Fla
NC State (LAST FIVE IN)
Oklahoma State
Texas
Seton Hall
Xavier
St. Johns (LAST FIVE IN)
Michigan State
Iowa
Ohio State
Northern Iowa
Colorado State
UCLA
Stanford
LSU
Texas A&M (LAST FIVE IN)
Ole Miss (LAST FIVE IN)
FIRST FIVE OUT –
alphabetical order by conference:
Temple
George Washington
Illinois
Purdue
Oregon
Multiple bid conferences
(total of 46 bids in 10 conferences; 22 single bid conferences = 68 bids):
B12 (7)
BE (7): added St. John’s
ACC (7): lost Syracuse (self-imposed sanction)
B10 (6)
SEC (6)
P12 (4): added UCLA
AAC (3): added Tulsa & lost Temple
A10 (2): lost Davidson
MWC (2)
MVC (2)
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