We previously published a review of the 2010 NCAA Tournament
in mid-October 2014, which can be found to the right on the toolbar of past
posts; today let’s take a detailed look at the 2014 NCAA Tournament.
What is the College Basketball SBPI? It’s a comprehensive system for college
basketball teams that grades performance in 10 offensive & defensive
categories, adjusts those raw figures for SOS, then slots teams into their
proper power ratings. Each week we have
posted an updated SBPI for the 2015 season – check toolbar to the right to
reference.
Let’s take a look at the 2014 NCAA Tournament using the SBPI
ranks & power ratings for those seasons, comparing those “lines” to what
Vegas closed at, and grading our plays.
We have graded every play that had a 0.6 point or greater variance
between our line & Vegas closing # - and you will see how solid the results
are. Why show the results of an NCAA
Tournament? Well it removes many of the
other variables we use when handicapping during the regular season – each team
needs a win to advance so we can generally expect a team to give its best
effort – it does not always translate to such, but it’s the situation that
removes the most other variables we utilize during the regular season.
Legend:
SBPI Rank: where
each team’s power rating slotted them that specific season
SBPI Rating: true
strength of a team. The difference
between teams SBPI Rating is the spread we project for a matchup between the
two schools
SBPI Line: simply
the difference between each team’s SBPI rating (“-“equals favorite)
Vegas Line: the
closing line on each game
SBPI Pick:
identifies the side the SBPI directs us to playing based on comparing SBPI Line
vs. Vegas Line
Here is the Midwest Region:
|
SBPI
|
SBPI
|
Vegas
|
SBPI
|
||||
|
Rank
|
Rating
|
Seed
|
Line
|
Line
|
Pick
|
Grade
|
|
|
32
|
84.5
|
WICHITA
STATE
|
1
|
-9.3
|
-17
|
CAL POLY
|
LOSS
|
|
114
|
75.2
|
CAL
POLY
|
16
|
||||
|
8
|
90.4
|
KENTUCKY
|
8
|
-7.4
|
-6
|
KENTUCKY
|
WIN
|
|
40
|
83
|
KANSAS
STATE
|
9
|
||||
|
34
|
84.2
|
SAINT
LOUIS
|
5
|
-4.8
|
-3
|
SAINT LOUIS
|
-
|
|
75
|
79.4
|
NC
STATE
|
12
|
||||
|
4
|
92.8
|
LOUISVILLE
|
4
|
-14.7
|
-16
|
MANHATTAN
|
WIN
|
|
85
|
78.1
|
MANHATTAN
|
13
|
||||
|
37
|
83.4
|
MASSACHUSETTS
|
6
|
||||
|
3
|
93.2
|
TENNESSEE
|
11
|
-9.8
|
-6
|
TENNESSEE
|
WIN
|
|
6
|
91.4
|
DUKE
|
3
|
-17.5
|
-13
|
DUKE
|
LOSS
|
|
135
|
73.9
|
MERCER
|
14
|
||||
|
39
|
83
|
TEXAS
|
7
|
-0.6
|
-2.5
|
ARIZONA STATE
|
WIN
|
|
47
|
82.4
|
ARIZONA
STATE
|
10
|
||||
|
16
|
88.7
|
MICHIGAN
|
2
|
-17.8
|
-15
|
MICHIGAN
|
WIN
|
|
190
|
70.9
|
WOFFORD
|
15
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
32
|
84.5
|
WICHITA
STATE
|
1
|
-4.5
|
KENTUCKY
|
WIN
|
|
|
8
|
90.4
|
KENTUCKY
|
8
|
-5.9
|
|||
|
34
|
84.2
|
SAINT
LOUIS
|
5
|
||||
|
4
|
92.8
|
LOUISVILLE
|
4
|
-8.6
|
-10
|
SAINT LOUIS
|
LOSS
|
|
3
|
93.2
|
TENNESSEE
|
11
|
-19.3
|
-8.5
|
TENNESSEE
|
WIN
|
|
135
|
73.9
|
MERCER
|
14
|
||||
|
39
|
83
|
TEXAS
|
7
|
||||
|
16
|
88.7
|
MICHIGAN
|
2
|
-5.7
|
-5
|
MICHIGAN
|
WIN
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8
|
90.4
|
KENTUCKY
|
8
|
||||
|
4
|
92.8
|
LOUISVILLE
|
4
|
-2.4
|
-4.5
|
KENTUCKY
|
WIN
|
|
3
|
93.2
|
TENNESSEE
|
11
|
-4.5
|
|||
|
16
|
88.7
|
MICHIGAN
|
2
|
-2.5
|
TENNESSEE
|
WIN
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
8
|
90.4
|
KENTUCKY
|
8
|
-1.7
|
-2
|
-
|
-
|
|
16
|
88.7
|
MICHIGAN
|
2
|
||||
Next up is the West Region, winner of which would play Midwest
Region winner Kentucky in the Final Four:
|
SBPI
|
SBPI
|
Vegas
|
SBPI
|
||||
|
Rank
|
Rating
|
Seed
|
Line
|
Line
|
Pick
|
Grade
|
|
|
2
|
94
|
ARIZONA
|
1
|
-25.4
|
-20
|
ARIZONA
|
LOSS
|
|
243
|
68.6
|
WEBER
STATE
|
16
|
||||
|
51
|
82
|
GONZAGA
|
8
|
||||
|
30
|
84.9
|
OKLAHOMA
STATE
|
9
|
-2.9
|
-4
|
GONZAGA
|
WIN
|
|
26
|
85.3
|
OKLAHOMA
|
5
|
-7.1
|
-3.5
|
OKLAHOMA
|
LOSS
|
|
84
|
78.2
|
N.
DAKOTA STATE
|
12
|
||||
|
12
|
89.9
|
SAN
DIEGO STATE
|
4
|
-17.2
|
-8
|
SD STATE
|
LOSS
|
|
160
|
72.7
|
NEW
MEX STATE
|
13
|
||||
|
13
|
89.6
|
BAYLOR
|
6
|
-7.9
|
-3.5
|
BAYLOR
|
WIN
|
|
52
|
81.7
|
NEBRASKA
|
11
|
||||
|
44
|
82.8
|
CREIGHTON
|
3
|
-5.9
|
-13.5
|
UL LAFAYETTE
|
WIN
|
|
101
|
76.9
|
UL
LAFAYETTE
|
14
|
||||
|
31
|
84.6
|
OREGON
|
7
|
-3
|
-5
|
BYU
|
LOSS
|
|
56
|
81.6
|
BYU
|
10
|
||||
|
5
|
92
|
WISCONSIN
|
2
|
-22.4
|
-14
|
WISCONSIN
|
WIN
|
|
219
|
69.6
|
AMERICAN
|
15
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2
|
94
|
ARIZONA
|
1
|
-12
|
-7.5
|
ARIZONA
|
WIN
|
|
51
|
82
|
GONZAGA
|
8
|
||||
|
84
|
78.2
|
N.
DAKOTA STATE
|
12
|
||||
|
12
|
89.9
|
SAN
DIEGO STATE
|
4
|
-11.7
|
-4
|
SD STATE
|
WIN
|
|
13
|
89.6
|
BAYLOR
|
6
|
-6.8
|
|||
|
44
|
82.8
|
CREIGHTON
|
3
|
-3.5
|
BAYLOR
|
WIN
|
|
|
31
|
84.6
|
OREGON
|
7
|
||||
|
5
|
92
|
WISCONSIN
|
2
|
-7.4
|
-6
|
WISCONSIN
|
WIN
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2
|
94
|
ARIZONA
|
1
|
-4.1
|
-7.5
|
SAN DIEGO STATE
|
WIN
|
|
12
|
89.9
|
SAN
DIEGO STATE
|
4
|
||||
|
13
|
89.6
|
BAYLOR
|
6
|
||||
|
5
|
92
|
WISCONSIN
|
2
|
-2.4
|
-4
|
BAYLOR
|
LOSS
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2
|
94
|
ARIZONA
|
1
|
-2
|
-3.5
|
WISCONSIN
|
WIN
|
|
5
|
92
|
WISCONSIN
|
2
|
||||
On to the other side of the Field of 64 – first up let’s
look at the East:
|
SBPI
|
SBPI
|
Vegas
|
SBPI
|
||||
|
Rank
|
Rating
|
Seed
|
Line
|
Line
|
Pick
|
Grade
|
|
|
11
|
90.1
|
VIRGINIA
|
1
|
-23.1
|
-19.5
|
VIRGINIA
|
LOSS
|
|
265
|
67
|
COAST
CAROLINA
|
16
|
||||
|
25
|
85.3
|
MEMPHIS
|
8
|
-2.4
|
-4
|
G. WASHINGTON
|
LOSS
|
|
42
|
82.9
|
G.
WASHINGTON
|
9
|
||||
|
18
|
88.3
|
CINCINNATI
|
5
|
-6.6
|
-3
|
CINCINNATI
|
LOSS
|
|
54
|
81.7
|
HARVARD
|
12
|
||||
|
17
|
88.5
|
MICHIGAN
STATE
|
4
|
-15.3
|
-15
|
-
|
-
|
|
151
|
73.2
|
DELAWARE
|
13
|
||||
|
22
|
86.4
|
NORTH
CAROLINA
|
6
|
-1.5
|
-4.5
|
PROVIDENCE
|
WIN
|
|
29
|
84.9
|
PROVIDENCE
|
11
|
||||
|
24
|
86.1
|
IOWA
STATE
|
3
|
-16.9
|
-8.5
|
IOWA STATE
|
WIN
|
|
224
|
69.2
|
NC
CENTRAL
|
14
|
||||
|
23
|
86.2
|
CONNECTICUT
|
7
|
-4.7
|
-5
|
-
|
-
|
|
58
|
81.5
|
SAINT
JOSEPHS
|
10
|
||||
|
9
|
90.4
|
VILLANOVA
|
2
|
-18.4
|
-16.5
|
VILLANOVA
|
WIN
|
|
171
|
72.0
|
MILWAUKEE
|
15
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11
|
90.1
|
VIRGINIA
|
1
|
-4.8
|
-7
|
MEMPHIS
|
LOSS
|
|
25
|
85.3
|
MEMPHIS
|
8
|
||||
|
54
|
81.7
|
HARVARD
|
12
|
||||
|
17
|
88.5
|
MICHIGAN
STATE
|
4
|
-6.8
|
-8.5
|
HARVARD
|
WIN
|
|
22
|
86.4
|
NORTH
CAROLINA
|
6
|
-0.3
|
|||
|
24
|
86.1
|
IOWA
STATE
|
3
|
-1.5
|
NORTH CAROLINA
|
LOSS
|
|
|
23
|
86.2
|
CONNECTICUT
|
7
|
||||
|
9
|
90.4
|
VILLANOVA
|
2
|
-4.2
|
-4
|
-
|
-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
11
|
90.1
|
VIRGINIA
|
1
|
-1.6
|
|||
|
17
|
88.5
|
MICHIGAN
STATE
|
4
|
-2.5
|
VIRGINIA
|
WIN
|
|
|
24
|
86.4
|
IOWA
STATE
|
3
|
-0.2
|
-1
|
CONNECTICUT
|
WIN
|
|
23
|
86.2
|
CONNECTICUT
|
7
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
17
|
88.5
|
MICHIGAN
STATE
|
4
|
-2.3
|
-5.5
|
CONNECTICUT
|
WIN
|
|
23
|
86.2
|
CONNECTICUT
|
7
|
||||
Finally, here is the South, winner of which would play East
Region winner Connecticut in the Final Four:
|
SBPI
|
SBPI
|
Vegas
|
SBPI
|
||||
|
Rank
|
Rating
|
Seed
|
Line
|
Line
|
Pick
|
Grade
|
|
|
1
|
96.5
|
FLORIDA
|
1
|
-27.8
|
-22
|
FLORIDA
|
LOSS
|
|
239
|
68.7
|
ALBANY
|
16
|
||||
|
38
|
83
|
COLORADO
|
8
|
||||
|
10
|
90.3
|
PITTSBURGH
|
9
|
-7.3
|
-6
|
PITTSBURGH
|
WIN
|
|
14
|
89.5
|
VCU
|
5
|
-15.6
|
-6
|
VCU
|
LOSS
|
|
137
|
73.9
|
SF AUSTIN
|
12
|
||||
|
21
|
86.5
|
UCLA
|
4
|
-8.9
|
-8
|
UCLA
|
WIN
|
|
90
|
77.6
|
TULSA
|
13
|
||||
|
7
|
90.8
|
OHIO
STATE
|
6
|
-6.6
|
-6.5
|
-
|
-
|
|
33
|
84.2
|
DAYTON
|
11
|
||||
|
15
|
88.7
|
SYRACUSE
|
3
|
-19.8
|
-13
|
SYRACUSE
|
WIN
|
|
233
|
68.9
|
W.
MICHIGAN
|
14
|
||||
|
62
|
81.2
|
NEW
MEXICO
|
7
|
-4.5
|
STANFORD
|
WIN
|
|
|
35
|
84.1
|
STANFORD
|
10
|
-2.9
|
|||
|
19
|
87.6
|
KANSAS
|
2
|
-14.7
|
-13
|
KANSAS
|
LOSS
|
|
157
|
72.9
|
E. KENTUCKY
|
15
|
||||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
96.5
|
FLORIDA
|
1
|
-6.2
|
-5.5
|
FLORIDA
|
WIN
|
|
10
|
90.3
|
PITTSBURGH
|
9
|
||||
|
137
|
73.9
|
SF AUSTIN
|
12
|
||||
|
21
|
86.5
|
UCLA
|
4
|
-12.6
|
-9.5
|
UCLA
|
WIN
|
|
33
|
84.2
|
DAYTON
|
11
|
||||
|
15
|
88.7
|
SYRACUSE
|
3
|
-4.5
|
-8.5
|
DAYTON
|
WIN
|
|
35
|
84.1
|
STANFORD
|
10
|
||||
|
19
|
87.6
|
KANSAS
|
2
|
-3.5
|
-6.5
|
STANFORD
|
WIN
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
96.5
|
FLORIDA
|
1
|
-10
|
-4.5
|
FLORIDA
|
WIN
|
|
21
|
86.5
|
UCLA
|
4
|
||||
|
33
|
84.2
|
DAYTON
|
11
|
-0.1
|
|||
|
35
|
84.1
|
STANFORD
|
10
|
-3.5
|
DAYTON
|
WIN
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1
|
96.5
|
FLORIDA
|
1
|
-12.3
|
-10.5
|
FLORIDA
|
LOSS
|
|
33
|
84.2
|
DAYTON
|
11
|
||||
Lastly, here is how the Final Four bracket worked out:
|
SBPI
|
SBPI
|
Vegas
|
SBPI
|
||||
|
Rank
|
Rating
|
Seed
|
Line
|
Line
|
Pick
|
Grade
|
|
|
23
|
86.2
|
CONNECTICUT
|
7
|
||||
|
1
|
96.5
|
FLORIDA
|
1
|
-10.3
|
-7
|
FLORIDA
|
LOSS
|
|
8
|
90.4
|
KENTUCKY
|
8
|
-1
|
WISCONSIN
|
-
|
|
|
5
|
92
|
WISCONSIN
|
2
|
-1.6
|
|||
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
23
|
86.2
|
CONNECTICUT
|
7
|
||||
|
8
|
90.4
|
KENTUCKY
|
8
|
-4.2
|
-2.5
|
KENTUCKY
|
LOSS
|
Here were the ATS records per the SBPI plays laid out above:
|
RECORDS
|
||
|
1ST
|
16-12-4
|
57.1%
|
|
2ND
|
12-3-1
|
80.0%
|
|
S16
|
7-1-0
|
87.5%
|
|
E8
|
2-1-1
|
66.7%
|
|
F4
|
0-1-1
|
0.0%
|
|
TITLE
|
0-1-0
|
0.0%
|
|
TOTAL
|
37-19-7
|
66.1%
|
In addition to cashing 66.1% of the 63 NCAA Tournament games
that season the SBPI posted a 4-1 ATS mark when it had one team favored while
Vegas was on other side (the loss was a close one when Iowa State beat North
Carolina narrowly)! Note also of the 12
losses in the Round of 64 FOUR came when playing strictly a “line” in the 1 vs.
16 seed games. The SBPI posted an 21-7
mark in the Round of 32 & deeper rounds showing it is extremely accurate
when slotting how “strong” these teams truly are, especially when we get to the
“cream of the crop” teams that advance deep versus playing “lines” in the
earlier rounds.
All the NCAA Tournaments we have tested dating back to the
2010 version have a similar ATS winning percentage (above 60%)!
Thanks for reading, if you have any questions please feel
free to reach out.
Email me directly: boss@thesportsboss.com
Visit my website: www.thesportsboss.com
Follow me on Twitter: @SportsBoss
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COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2015
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