This is our fourth installment of bracketology for the 2015
NCAA Tournament and comes as we approach the end of February & the stretch
run of this college basketball season.
This week let’s jump into the latest 2015 projection! Below each conference is broken into THREE
buckets:
1) Automatic Bid
2) Looking Good [teams highly
likely to play well enough in the regular season to earn a bid]
3) Need Wins [teams that are firmly
on the bubble and will need to play well to close their season]
**Teams are listed in
the s-curve order I see them now within conference with SBPI rank shown first
[pure stats based ranking which should be a better projection than RPI of
performance moving forward] and RPI rank shown second for each team**
**For one bid leagues
I will generally have projected league winner as current first place team; I
will show the SBPI ranking of the best team in the conference that was not
selected as my automatic bid winner to give a feel for their competition in
parenthesis**
**Last key to
remember when looking this over – I always lean towards INCLUDING teams in my
breakdown that have any shot at earning a bid; some listed are extreme
longshots but I would prefer including any potential candidates vs. adding them
later out of blue. Leveraging that idea
further I will lean towards keeping teams in say “Need Wins” versus moving them
up to “Looking Good” till I feel certain they are a lock to earn a bid – do not
want to slide teams down levels, only up.
Many teams are closer to being left off completely versus moving up a
level at this point in the season**
America East: Albany
#201/#134 (Stony Brook #138/#121): Albany sits at 12-1 in conference
play giving them a 2 game edge in loss column over Vermont & 3 games over both Stony Brook & New
Hampshire. Those are the only four teams
currently above .500 in league play; look for Stony Brook to possibly surprise
in the conference tournament as they hold the highest SBPI & RPI ranking in
the conference.
American Athletic:
SMU #60/#18
Need Wins: Temple #44/#30, Cincinnati
#64/#55, Tulsa #63/#49
Atlantic Ten: VCU
#17/#14
Need Wins: Dayton #57/#29,
UMass #101/#38, Davidson #81/#47, Rhode Island #68/#66
ACC: Duke #2/#5
Looking Good: Virginia #15/#3, North
Carolina #18/#12, Louisville #9/#23, Notre Dame #86/#26
Need Wins: NC State #29/#43, Miami
#66/#65, Pittsburgh #42/#44, Clemson #65/#86
Atlantic Sun: Florida
Gulf Coast #228/#119 (North Florida #181/#188): those two Florida teams
along with USC Upstate are the only 3 teams above .500 in conference play;
however I would also toss in Northern Kentucky & Lipscomb as having a
chance at earning the conference’s automatic bid as those five teams are all
rated within 4 points of each other on a neutral court according to SBPI. FGC is the clear favorite based on recent
success & will likely earn this conference’s automatic bid once again be a
dangerous #14/#15 seed.
Big 12: Kansas #7/#1
Looking Good: Oklahoma #20/#15,
Baylor #6/#13, Iowa St. #25/#11, Oklahoma State #12/#28
Need Wins: Texas #26/#32, West
Virginia #13/#25
Big East: Villanova
#3/#4
Looking Good: Providence #14/#21, Butler
#5/#24, Georgetown #16/#20
Need Wins: Xavier #19/#33, St.
John’s #54/#37
Big Sky: Eastern
Washington #212/#76 (Northern Arizona #163/#199): the Big Sky has 4
teams above .500 in conference play – the two mentioned here along with
Sacramento State & Montana. With 12
teams in the conference there is an unbalanced schedule which could impact
standings – perhaps suggesting power ratings to be a better indicator of who
may earn the conference’s automatic bid; keep an eye on tomorrow’s EWU@NARIZ
game.
Big South: High
Point #139/#94 (Gardner-Webb #129/#164): the Big South has FIVE teams
within ½ game of first place as conference play concludes next weekend with
Gardner-Webb currently the highest rated SBPI team but they check in at 7th
place in the current standings! This
conference also has an unbalanced schedule with 11 teams & 18 conference
games – not as unbalanced as the Big Sky but head to head regular season
meetings along with power ratings could be the best indicator of which team may
earn the conference’s automatic bid. The
conference tournament will be played at Coastal Carolina, who are the defending
champions & one of the five teams within ½ game of first place currently –
this should be one of the most exciting under-the-radar conference tournaments
come early March.
Big Ten: Wisconsin
#8/#6
Looking Good: Maryland #55/#10,
Indiana #51/#34, Ohio State #23/#36
Need Wins: Michigan State #32/#31, Purdue
#40/#58, Iowa #30/#57, Illinois #38/#42
Big West: UC Davis
#278/#85 (Cal Poly #82/#155): UC Davis has sat atop the standings all
season but it’s hard for me to get behind them as the favorite in the
conference’s tournament because of their SBPI rating of #278! Cal Poly sits at 6-6 but I have them as a
favorite over the rest of the Big West on a neutral court – and this tournament
will be played at the Honda Center with an interesting twist of re-seeding
teams following each round of play. Also
keep an eye on Long Beach State that has played 14 games vs. current RPI Top
100 teams (compare that to UC Davis who has not played ONE RPI Top 100 team all
season). This should be a very
competitive tournament especially come the semifinal round.
Colonial: William
& Mary #124/#106 (UNC Wilmington #151/#156): the CAA has 4 teams
tied atop the conference with 3 games remaining for each team in the full round
robin conference schedule. Of the four
teams tied at the top James Madison is easily the weakest; I would replace them
with Hofstra as far as the top four most likely teams to earn this conference’s
automatic bid. This conference
tournament will be played in Baltimore & will be relatively wide open as
far as those top 4 teams go.
Conference USA: Louisiana
Tech #123/#70 (Old Dominion #94/#62): with 14 teams & 18 conference
games the CUSA slate is unbalanced for certain which I always feel lends more
credence to power ratings vs. conference records. With that in mind although ODU has certainly
struggled in conference play they remain the highest rated team in both SBPI
& RPI. There are 5 legitimate
threats to win this conference title IMO – and keep in mind 4 teams earn a
first round bye which could be critical.
UAB is among the five teams mentioned to be vying for this conference’s
automatic bid – and the tournament will be played on their home court giving
them that small edge that could be the difference. One thing is for certain – the winner of this
conference tournament will be a dangerous #12/#13 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Horizon: Green Bay
#73/#46 (Valparaiso #107/#64): the Horizon will likely come down to
those two teams along with Cleveland State – those three are within 1 game of
each other with games remaining between them over the next 10 days (home court
has been protected in each game between these three teams so far). This conference tournament is played on
campus sites at highest seed with semifinals played at #1 seed (the top 2 seeds
get a bye to that round) & the championship played at the highest seed
also. With that in mind these last three
games of the conference schedule could be critical to earning this automatic
bid.
Ivy: Harvard #80/#51
(Yale #35/#61): Harvard jumps Yale in this installment based on their
52-50 road win at Yale a week ago. With
no postseason conference tournament Yale has dug itself a hole here despite
being the top rated SBPI team in the conference – but there is still hope for
the Bulldogs.
MAAC: Iona #174/#48
(Canisius #169/#157): the MAAC conference tournament should be highly
contested as the SBPI has SEVEN teams within 2 points of each other on a
neutral court! This year’s tournament
will take place in Albany, NY with the top 5 teams getting a bye to the QF
round (Iona, Rider, Monmouth & Manhattan will all receive a bye & are
all among the 7 teams mentioned in opening sentence here; the 5th
team could be any of four teams currently).
The Manhattan Jaspers are the defending champions.
MAC: Toledo #83/#73
(Buffalo #58/#56): despite having two divisions all teams are thrown
into the same bracket with an interesting layout; teams seeded #3 & #4
receive a bye to the QF round to face the winners a PAIR of early round
games! Teams seeded #1 & #2 receive
a bye to the SF round to face the winners of the aforementioned matchups –
starting in the QF round all games are played at Quicken Loans Arena in
Cleveland. Needless to say the seeding
will be key in this conference tournament – a team like Buffalo will not
receive a bye into the SF round but could be dangerous nevertheless checking in
as the top ranked MAC team according to SBPI & RPI.
MEAC: North
Carolina Central #232/#117 (Maryland-Eastern Shore #243/#206): UNCC
sits atop the standings with a 12-0 mark while Norfolk State is 2nd
with 3 losses & teams tied for 3rd have 5 losses. Considering Central is also the top ranked
team according to SBPI & RPI they seem to be the clear favorites to win the
MEAC’s automatic bid – but beating teams three times in one season, which they
would be forced to do in possibly every round in succession, will not be easy
especially also considering the tournament will be played at Norfolk State, who
currently checks in at 2nd place as mentioned above.
Missouri Valley: Wichita
State #27/#17
If
WICHITA STATE does not win their conference tournament they would still RECEIVE a bid, thus taking a
spot away from the at-large field.
Looking Good: Northern Iowa #79/#16
Mountain West: San
Diego State #37/#19
If SAN
DIEGO STATE does not win their conference tournament they would still RECEIVE a bid, thus taking a
spot away from the at-large field.
Need Wins: Colorado State #84/#27,
Boise State #56/#39
Northeast: St.
Francis NY #226/#178 (Mount St. Mary’s #211/#173): the top 8 teams will
reach the postseason conference tournament (FDU & Central Connecticut State
already eliminated) with games being played in standard format at home of
higher seed through the championship game.
St. Francis NY sits ahead of 2nd place Bryant by 3 games in
the loss column & by 4 games over the pair tied for 3rd
suggesting pretty big gap between them & the rest of the conference. They are clearly the team to beat although others
could make some noise.
Ohio Valley: Murray
State #147/#72 (Eastern Kentucky #112/#152): Murray State has dominated
the Valley this season posting 13-0 mark in conference play – although they
appear to be in the weaker division of the two within the conference. The top 8 OVC team make the conference
tournament with seeds #3 & #4 earning a bye to the QF round while seeds #1
(Murray State already locked in) & #2 earn a bye to the SF round. All games are played in Nashville at a
neutral site & the Racers are no lock at all to win this conference
tournament as numerous teams could give them a run as the SBPI would have two
teams (Morehead State & Eastern Kentucky) favored over them on a neutral
court.
Pac 12: Arizona #4/#7
Looking Good: Utah #10/#9
Need Wins: UCLA #24/#45, Stanford #31/#53,
Oregon #92/#60
Patriot: Bucknell
#196/#151 (Colgate #177/#194): the Patriot League has FIVE teams rated
within 1 point of each other according to SBPI, suggesting a wide open
conference tournament. Here the top 10
Patriot teams earn the right to compete for the league’s automatic bid with
seeds #1 & #2 getting a bye to the QF round with all games played on campus
site’s at the higher seed. Bucknell
& Colgate appear to be the top 2 teams, but as many as five teams have a
chance at earning this conference’s automatic bid.
SEC: Kentucky #1/#2
Looking Good: Arkansas #28/#22
Need Wins: Ole Miss #46/#35, Georgia
#50/#41, Texas A&M #43/#40, LSU #76/#50, Alabama #47/#69
Southern: Wofford
#128/#52 (Chattanooga #175/#126): defending champion Wofford is the
team to beat checking in well ahead of the 2nd best team according
to SBPI & RPI, although they do not have a shot at earning an at-large bid
going just 3-3 vs. RPI Top 100 this season.
That being said the Terriers have all 5 starters back from last year’s
team and should handle their business again and be a dangerous #13/#12 seed
come March.
Southland: Stephen
F. Austin #86/#71 (Sam Houston State #136/#96): the Southland
tournament will be played in Katy, TX with seeds #3 & #4 earning a bye to
the QF round while the top 2 seeds, locked in to be the two mentioned (order
not known yet) will receive a bye to the SF round. The Lumberjacks & Bearkats are well ahead
of the rest of the conference and figure to meet in the championship for all
the marbles in what should be a highly competitive game – the winner of which
will be a very dangerous #13/#14 seed.
SWAC: Texas
Southern #238/#158 (Southern #298/#161): the SWAC winner will almost
certainly be either a #16 seed or involved in one of the two #16 seed play-in
games as this conference ranks dead last in SBPI with SIX teams ranked in the
worst 17 teams in all of college basketball.
Along with the two teams mentioned Alabama State is among the contenders
for the automatic bid as they current sit at the top of the standings but have
a worse power rating according to SBPI & RPI to the two “Southern” schools.
Summit: South
Dakota State #148/#95 (Oral Roberts #114/#183): SD State is currently
tied with ND State atop the standings but the SBPI has ND State ranked 6th
of the 9 teams in the Summit, thus the two mentioned here. The conference tournament will take place in
Sioux Falls, SD using a standard 8 team standard layout.
Sun Belt: UL
Monroe #185/#113 (Georgia State #154/#82): the Sun Belt tournament will
be played in New Orleans with seeds #3 & #4 receiving a bye to the QF round
and seeds #1 & #2 receiving a bye to the SF round. That type of advantage can be enormous,
especially amongst UL-Monroe or UL-Lafayette who will be playing virtually home
games compared to the rest of the conference.
Texas State is the top ranked SBPI team in the Sun Belt and could be a
decent sleeper to keep an eye on.
West Coast: Gonzaga
#22/#8
If
GONZAGA does not win their conference tournament they would still RECEIVE a bid, thus taking one
away from the current at-large pool.
WAC: New Mexico
State #160/#136 (UMKC #264/#295): the WAC is all about New Mexico State
who has a big edge in both SBPI & RPI on any other conference team. The Aggies are already locked into the #1
seed & with that receive a bye to the SF round. It would be a shock if anyone other than NMST
won this conference tournament; if it’s the Aggies they are likely a #14/#15
seed, while anyone else is either a #16 or taking part in the play-in #16 seed
games.
FIELD: 68
AUTOMATIC BIDS: 32
LOOKING GOOD: 17 (unchanged)
Currently I project 49
of the 68 bids are
earned.
NEED WINS: 29
As of this moment we have 29 teams battling for those last
19 bids that remain “open”
Keep in mind however that DOES NOT include the upsets we will see during Conference
Tournament week where teams that are LOCKS
from smaller conferences lose a game in their conference tournament and hence use
an at-large bid on themselves.
For the remaining 19 open bids this is the way I see it
currently, which will obviously be very fluid (listed in conference
alphabetical order applying s-curve within conference; teams highlighted in
yellow are LAST FIVE IN):
|
TEAM
|
RECORD
|
C REC
|
1-25
|
26-50
|
51-100
|
ROAD
|
NEU
|
SOS
|
NC SOS
|
BEST WIN
|
TOP NC WIN
|
|
TEMPLE
|
19-8
|
10-4
|
1-4
|
0-1
|
5-1
|
6-4
|
1-2
|
51
|
42
|
1 KAN
|
1 KAN
|
|
CINCINNATI
|
17-9
|
8-5
|
3-1
|
2-3
|
1-2
|
3-5
|
1-1
|
48
|
24
|
2X 18 SMU
|
19 SDST
|
|
DAYTON
|
20-5
|
10-3
|
0-1
|
2-2
|
3-2
|
4-4
|
2-1
|
132
|
119
|
35 MISS
|
35 MISS
|
|
NC STATE
|
15-11
|
6-7
|
2-4
|
2-1
|
3-5
|
3-4
|
0-1
|
2
|
26
|
5 DUKE
|
39 BOISE
|
|
MIAMI, FLA
|
17-9
|
7-6
|
1-3
|
2-2
|
3-0
|
5-3
|
3-1
|
76
|
196
|
@5 DUKE
|
42 ILL
|
|
TEXAS
|
17-9
|
6-7
|
1-6
|
0-2
|
4-1
|
4-5
|
2-0
|
22
|
90
|
25 WVU
|
57 IOWA
|
|
W VIRGINIA
|
20-6
|
8-5
|
2-4
|
1-2
|
4-0
|
4-3
|
6-0
|
68
|
217
|
1 KAN
|
52 WOFF
|
|
XAVIER
|
17-10
|
7-7
|
3-3
|
0-1
|
5-2
|
4-6
|
1-2
|
28
|
52
|
2X 20 GTWN
|
69 ALAB
|
|
ST. JOHNS
|
16-9
|
6-7
|
2-6
|
1-0
|
2-1
|
3-5
|
2-1
|
30
|
59
|
2X 21 PROV
|
54 STMARY
|
|
MICHIGAN ST
|
18-8
|
9-4
|
0-4
|
2-2
|
4-0
|
5-3
|
2-2
|
44
|
63
|
34 IND
|
120 RIDER
|
|
PURDUE
|
18-9
|
10-4
|
0-2
|
4-2
|
4-1
|
4-4
|
2-2
|
77
|
251
|
2X 34 IND
|
43 NC ST
|
|
IOWA
|
16-10
|
7-6
|
2-4
|
2-2
|
1-2
|
4-3
|
0-3
|
18
|
101
|
10 MARY
|
@12 UNC
|
|
COLORADO ST
|
21-5
|
9-5
|
1-1
|
1-1
|
2-2
|
6-4
|
3-0
|
95
|
120
|
19 SDST
|
67 UTEP
|
|
UCLA
|
16-11
|
8-6
|
1-5
|
0-0
|
5-5
|
2-7
|
1-3
|
20
|
60
|
9 UTAH
|
103 LBST
|
|
STANFORD
|
16-9
|
7-6
|
0-3
|
1-2
|
6-1
|
4-6
|
1-1
|
74
|
104
|
@32 TEX
|
@32 TEX
|
|
OLE MISS
|
18-8
|
9-4
|
1-2
|
1-3
|
5-0
|
7-3
|
3-0
|
42
|
82
|
@22 ARK
|
55 CINCY
|
|
GEORGIA
|
16-9
|
7-6
|
0-3
|
2-1
|
4-2
|
5-4
|
0-2
|
33
|
66
|
35 MISS
|
68 HALL
|
|
TEXAS A&M
|
18-7
|
9-4
|
0-2
|
2-3
|
4-2
|
4-3
|
2-2
|
83
|
134
|
2X 50 LSU
|
84 ASU
|
|
LSU
|
18-8
|
7-6
|
1-1
|
3-2
|
5-2
|
6-3
|
1-2
|
91
|
183
|
@25 WVU
|
@25 WVU
|
FIRST FIVE OUT –
alphabetical order by conference:
Tulsa
Massachusetts
Pittsburgh
Illinois
Boise State
Multiple bid conferences
(total of 46 bids in 10 conferences; 22 single bid conferences = 68 bids):
B12 (7)
ACC (7)
B10 (7)
BE (6)
SEC (6)
P12 (4)
AAC (3)
A10 (2)
MWC (2)
MVC (2)
KEY GAMES TO CLOSE
REGULAR SEASON:
February 23rd: Xavier at St. John’s
February 25th: Davidson at Rhode Island
February 25th: Illinois at Iowa
March 4th: Cincinnati at Tulsa
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