Tuesday, October 28, 2014

NCAAB: Top Teams in SBPI [SportsBoss Power Index] over Last 12 Seasons #75 to #51

Continuing our top college basketball teams of the last 12 seasons according to the SportsBoss Power Index, which as a reminder is a comprehensive model that measures how strong each team in the country performs by grading ten statistics on both offense & defense followed by adjusting performance based on SOS. 

Here are the next 25 squads:



#75: 2014 Ohio State 376.5 [25-10] – these Buckeyes were SBPI #6 for the 2014 season & were slotted as a #3 seed which is close to in-line with our expectations.  They did bow-out to the 11th seeded Dayton Flyers in the 1st round by just 1 point, launching a UD run to the Elite 8 before they fell to SBPI #1 Florida.  Dayton, SBPI #33 in 2014, should have been closer to the 8/9 game vs. the 11 seed they earned, but nevertheless this was an extremely disappointing result to Buckeyes faithful – but like Davidson vs. Wisconsin directly above, the Dayton team they lost to advanced to the Elite 8 making the loss not as bad as it appeared, especially considering it was by just 1 point.

#74: 2006 LSU 376.8 [27-9] – this was EASILY the best Tigers team of the last 12 seasons as they were ranked SBPI #3 for the 2006 season (their next best was #29 in 2005), and they reached the Final Four that season as a #4 seed – which was well under where they deserved to be seeded as you can see from first comment.  They would drop a 14 point decision to SBPI #6 UCLA in the national semifinals, a disappointing finish to what was one of the best season’s in LSU men’s basketball history.

#73: 2013 Wisconsin 377.4 [23-12] – the ’13 Badgers were SBPI #7 for the 2013 season, suggesting a #2 seed was more accurate; yet they were slotted on the #5 line & lost in the 1st round to Ole Miss.  Ole Miss checked in at #37 that season, suggesting the 8/9 game was more accurate for them.  Nevertheless, Wisky going down by 11 in this first round game was a big surprise.

#72: 2008 Stanford 377.9 [28-8] – the Cardinal checked in at SBPI #9 for 2008, perfectly fitting into the 3 seed they earned in that year’s tournament.  While they did reach the Sweet 16 and fall to the #2 seed Texas Longhorns UT was SBPI #16 that season, 7 spot below Stanford; also taking into account the Horns won that game by 20 points & that was an extremely disappointing end to Stanford’s season.

#71: 2005 Kentucky 379.9 [31-7] – the ’05 Wildcats earned a #2 seed, in-line with the SBPI of #9.  UK rode this team all the way to the Elite 8 where they lost to #5 seed Michigan State; however, that Spartans team was SBPI #5, bettering the Wildcats by 4 spots & showing just how under seeded that MSU team was (same seed as SBPI rank).  That MSU team would go on to reach the Final Four before falling to SBPI #1 North Carolina, who would go on to win the national title.

#70: 2011 San Diego State 379.3 [34-3] – this was the Aztecs highest rated team of the L12 seasons checking in at SBPI #8 (their 2nd best was the 2014 version that checked in at #12), rightfully earning a #2 seed in the NCAA Tournament.  They reached the Sweet 16 before falling to #3 seed UConn, who at SBPI #10 that season was just behind SDST.  As we know the Huskies went on to win the national title so no fault for this Aztecs loss.

#69: 2011 Kansas 379.4 [35-3] – one of many Jayhawks teams to find a spot on the Top 100 this version earned a #1 seed, which was 1 line too high as this KU team was #7 in the SBPI for 2011.  They reached the Elite 8 before bowing out to upstart VCU, who checked in at SBPI #46 that season which was perfectly in-line with their 11 seed.  The Rams went on to the Final Four before losing to SBPI #29 Butler, who fell to UConn in the championship game.

#68: 2003 Pittsburgh 381.4 [28-5] – the ’03 Panthers were SBPI #5, falling in-line with the #2 seed they earned in the Big Dance.  However it was another “early” flameout for a good Jamie Dixon Panthers team losing in the Sweet 16 to #3 seed Marquette.  Seed wise the loss does not appear bad, but seeing the SBPI had Marquette #33 that season, it was the first of many disappointing ends to Panther seasons in the years to come.

#67: 2008 Pittsburgh 382.2 [27-10] – these Panthers were #8 in the SBPI for 2008, but were placed as a #4 seed versus the #2-3 seed they probably deserved.  Nevertheless they went on to lose to #5 seed Michigan State in the 2nd round, who was #25 in SBPI – the worst Tom Izzo team of the last 7 seasons.  Sure you can minimize this loss some because of the coaching factor, but with so many Pitt teams falling before they “should have” this was just another example.  From 2006-2011 Pitt’s SBPI ratings in order were: 7, 7, 8, 5, 20, 5 – FIVE teams ranked in the Top 8 yet not once did they reach the Final Four, and only once even reached the Elite 8 (2009 loss to Villanova).

#66: 2014 Duke 382.6 [26-9] – amazingly Duke has 9 teams in the Top 100 of the last 12 seasons, this version being their “worst” of the nine (Duke teams that did not make the Top 100 were 2012 who were SBPI #10, 2006 who were SBPI #11 and 2003 who were SBPI #7).  Seven of the nine Duke teams on the list were ranked SBPI #3 or better that season with the only two outliers this team checking in at #6 & 2007 version checking in at #5.  Back to this team – since it was so recent we all recall their shocking first round loss to SBPI #135 Mercer last season, the 2nd worst loss according to SBPI by Top 100 teams (may seem crazy but the “worst” team in SBPI to beat a Top 100 team was #169 Kentucky as a #8 seed beating #9 seed Villanova in 2007).

#65: 2005 Wisconsin 383.1 [25-9] – this Badgers team was very under seeded as a #6 based on an SBPI ranking of #8 that season, suggesting closer to a #2 seed.  The Badgers played to that #8 ranking reaching the Elite 8 before falling to #1 seed & SBPI #1 North Carolina by just 3 points.  The Tar Heels would go on to win the 2005 national championship.

#64: 2009 Connecticut 383.1 [31-5] – these Huskies were SBPI #10 but earned a #1 seed & reached the Final Four.  They would go on to face SBPI #3 Michigan State in Detroit, the combination of which was too much for the Huskies to overcome as a pair of Big East teams (Villanova) bowed out in the semifinals.

#63: 2006 Texas 383.3 [30-7] – this Horns team led by LaMarcus Aldridge was #2 in SBPI for the 2006 season & reached the Elite 8 before falling to SBPI #3 LSU.  This was Texas’ best SBPI team of the last 12 seasons with four other versions (’03, ’04, ’10, ’11) checking in at #6 or better.

#62: 2009 Memphis 383.4 [33-4] – this is the 2nd best Memphis team & 2nd best Mid-Major season according to SBPI over the last 12 seasons as this final John Calipari Tigers squad was SBPI #9, slotting them right where they were seeded as a #2.  They reached the Sweet 16 before falling to SBPI #11 Missouri.  Since Calipari has left and Pastner has taken over this program, here are the Tigers’ SBPI rank each season, starting in 2010: 60, 116, 38, 64, and 25.  Not good. 

#61: 2013 Syracuse 383.6 [30-10] – these Orange were SBPI #6 but slipped much further than that on the seed lines checking in with a #4 – but it did not matter as they reached the Final Four, eventually falling to SBPI #10 Michigan by 5 points.  What is odd about Jim Boeheim’s teams is they rarely perform at a high level in the SBPI: for example, outside the last three years where they finished #5 in ’12, #6 in ’13 & #15 in ’14 they only finished in the Top 15 once since 2003 – and that was in 2003 when they finished #14 & Carmelo Anthony led the Orange to their only title under Boeheim.

#60: 2007 Duke 384.3 [22-11] – this version of the Blue Devils was extremely under seeded according to SBPI as they checked in at #5 overall (1-2 line) but were placed as a #6 seed, most likely due to the double digit losses they suffered during the regular season.  And once again, like the Duke team listed above, they fell in the opening round to #11 seed/ SBPI #52 VCU by 2 points.  This continued the “theme” of Duke’s worst two teams over the last eight seasons according to SBPI both losing in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament – granted both were huge upsets but it’s worth pointing out.

#59: 2013 Michigan State 384.5 [27-9] – the ’13 Spartans were SBPI #5 but fell to a #3 seed, approximately 1 line below where SBPI slotted them.  They reached the Sweet 16 where they fell to SBPI #3 Duke in a tough matchup of Top 5 SBPI teams that early in the tournament.  That Duke team went on to reach the Elite 8 before falling to SBPI #1 Louisville, who went on to capture the national title.  That Midwest region was certainly too tough featuring THREE of the TOP FIVE SBPI teams of 2013, along with coaching stalwarts Izzo, Pitino & Krzyzewski.

#58: 2004 North Carolina 384.5 [19-11] – the ’04 Tar Heels started an impressive 6 year run for UNC in the SBPI besides the 2006 version; starting in ’04 their SBPI ranks were 3, 1, 224, 2, 5, 4 (they have failed to break the Top 11 since the ’09 team).  This team posted just an 18-10 record heading into the NCAA Tournament, which likely dropped their seed to the #6 line versus the #1 line they “earned” according to SBPI.  While it’s true this team lost in the 2nd round they did so against Texas, who was #4 in the SBPI that season but only earned a #3 seed.  That game was a matchup of two Top 4 SBPI teams, came way too early, and seeing how it played out as a 3pt final, was sad it occurred in just the 2nd round.

#57: 2009 Villanova 384.8 [30-8] – Jay Wright’s 2009 team, the first Nova team to reach the Final Four since their 1985 title run, checked in at #8 in the SBPI, close enough to the #3 seed they were slotted in that season.  They went on to lose to SBPI #4 North Carolina in the Final Four, which was not surprising to the SBPI.  Those Tar Heels went on to easily win the national title 2 nights later.

#56: 2007 Villanova 384.9 [22-11] – this Nova team checked in SBPI #4 despite their 22-11 record, which clearly slid their seed down to the #9 they received.  In what is clearly the biggest surprise loss of any team in the Top 100 list these Wildcats lost to the ‘Cats of Kentucky (SBPI #169 that season!) by 9 points in the opening 8/9 game.  That game was a matchup we likely should never have seen as Kentucky had no business being in the NCAA Tournament (EASILY the lowest SBPI team to receive an at-large bid), while Villanova’s numbers suggested they deserved a better seed than the #9 seed they received (although the outcome of that game may suggest something entirely different).  That result meant the SBPI #4 & #5 teams in 2007 both bowed out in the 1st round (Duke #5 mentioned above).

#55: 2010 Texas A&M 385.4 [24-10] – this was the best Aggies team of the last 12 seasons checking in at SBPI #5 (their 2nd best was SBPI #18’s 2008 team) but perhaps because they are Texas A&M they were woefully under seeded as a #5.  They reached the Round of 32 before running into #2 seed & SBPI #6 Purdue where they lost a tight one by 2 points.  Tough break for the Aggies meeting Purdue that early as according to SBPI both teams were #2 seeds.

#54: 2008 Marquette 385.6 [25-10] – this was the best Buzz Williams team according to SBPI, although they posted five straight Top 20 finishes from ’08-’12.  This year Marquette was #7 in SBPI but despite that only received a #6 seed – just one spot above their overall SBPI rating!  They went on to lose in the 2nd round to SBPI #9 Stanford, who earned a 3 seed rightfully so but Marquette had no business playing them so early.  Seeding appears to have cost Marquette here as they fell by just 1 point to a team two spots behind them in SBPI.

#53: 2011 Texas 386.2 [28-8] – the Horns were SBPI #6 in 2011 yet received a #4 seed, 2 lines below where SBPI projected them.  They reached the Round of 32 where they fell to #5 seed Arizona (#26 SBPI) so it’s tough to complain for the Horns.  But keep in mind that was a 1 point game and could have gone either way.

#52: 2013 Ohio State 387.5 [29-8] – the ’13 Buckeyes were SBPI #4 & earned a #2 seed reaching the Elite 8 before falling to Wichita State by 4 points.  That Shockers team was one of the best mid-majors of the last 12 seasons checking in at SBPI #12 in 2013, well above the #9 seed they received; SBPI had them as a 3-4 seed, so their 4 point win over the Buckeyes was not a complete “shocker”.

#51: 2005 Florida 387.7 [25-9] – these Gators were SBPI #7 but only seeded as a #4, about 2 spots below where SBPI had them ranked.  They went on to reach the 2nd round before facing SBPI #2 Villanova, who earned a #5 seed also well below their SBPI rating.  This matchup happened far too early for both schools but Villanova came out on top, thus the Gators lost to the SBPI better team.  The Gators would avenge this loss in the following season’s Elite 8 while the 2005 Villanova team went on to face SBPI #1 North Carolina in the Sweet 16.  After losing star forward Curtis Sumpter in the Florida game Nova came up 1 point short against UNC on a controversial travelling call in the final seconds.  The Syracuse region that season had four of the top eight SBPI teams (#1 UNC, #2 Villanova, #7 Florida, #8 Wisconsin).

Check back next Tuesday for #50 to #26.


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