While we still have approximately 4 weeks before the
2014-2015 college basketball season tips off there is always the craving for
solid analytics in any sport – perhaps the most popular is college basketball
since it has 330+ teams, driving significant alumni interest & opportunities
to profit wagering.
Last season I wrapped up development & released the
SportsBoss Power Index (SBPI), a comprehensive model that measures how strong
each team in the country performs by grading ten statistics on both offense
& defense followed by adjusting performance based on SOS.
In a sequence of 4 postings I will release the Top 100 SBPI teams of the
last 12 seasons, starting with #100 to #76 today.
First, here is a breakdown of how many teams from each season made the Top 100:
2003
|
6
|
2004
|
6
|
2005
|
9
|
2006
|
4
|
2007
|
7
|
2008
|
12
|
2009
|
13
|
2010
|
8
|
2011
|
11
|
2012
|
5
|
2013
|
8
|
2014
|
11
|
Second, prior to the countdown commencement, and to whet everyone's appetite for what is to come, here are the schools that have made at least one appearance in the countdown (starts with the 2002-2003 season) along with the season's where they earned that distinction:
DUKE
|
9
|
'04, '05, '07, '08, '09, '10, '11, '13, '14
|
NORTH CAROLINA
|
6
|
'04, '05, '07, '08, '09, '11
|
PITTSBURGH
|
6
|
'03, '07, '08, '09, '11, '14
|
VILLANOVA
|
6
|
'05, '06, '07, '09, '10, '14
|
KANSAS
|
5
|
'03, '08, '10, '11, '12
|
KENTUCKY
|
5
|
'03, '05, '11, '12, '14
|
OHIO STATE
|
5
|
'07, '11, '12, '13, '14
|
WISCONSIN
|
5
|
'04, '05, '08, '13, '14
|
ARIZONA
|
4
|
'03, '06, '13, '14
|
LOUISVILLE
|
4
|
'08, '09, '13, '14
|
MICHIGAN STATE
|
4
|
'05, '09, '12, '13
|
TEXAS
|
4
|
'03, '04, '06, '11
|
WEST VIRGINIA
|
4
|
'08, '09, '10, '11
|
UCLA
|
3
|
'07, '08, '09
|
CONNECTICUT
|
2
|
'09, '11
|
FLORIDA
|
2
|
'05, '14
|
MARQUETTE
|
2
|
'08, '09
|
MEMPHIS
|
2
|
'08, '09
|
OKLAHOMA STATE
|
2
|
'04, '05
|
PURDUE
|
2
|
'10, '11
|
SYRACUSE
|
2
|
'12, '13
|
TENNESSEE
|
2
|
'08, '14
|
CLEMSON
|
1
|
'07
|
ILLINOIS
|
1
|
'05
|
INDIANA
|
1
|
'13
|
KANSAS STATE
|
1
|
'10
|
LSU
|
1
|
'06
|
MISSOURI
|
1
|
'09
|
OKLAHOMA
|
1
|
'03
|
SAN DIEGO STATE
|
1
|
'11
|
STANFORD
|
1
|
'08
|
TEXAS A&M
|
1
|
'10
|
VIRGINIA
|
1
|
'14
|
WAKE FOREST
|
1
|
'04
|
WASHINGTON
|
1
|
'09
|
XAVIER
|
1
|
'10
|
Now that we have some groundwork, here are the teams that checked in from #100 to #76 including their SBPI rating, record & a quick summary of their season mostly focused on their NCAA Tournament outcome:
#100: 2011 North
Carolina 369.7 [29-8] – as a #2 seed UNC lost reached the Elite 8
before falling to #4 seed Kentucky. However,
UK was SBPI #4 while UNC was SBPI #11 so they were beat by the better team
according to SBPI. It would also seem UK
was under seeded by 3 levels while UNC was seeded one level too high.
#99: 2006 Arizona
370.1 [20-13] – as a #8 seed they lost in the 2nd round to
#1 seed Villanova by just 4 points in a game that took place on Villanova’s home
court. Nova rated SBPI #1 while Arizona
was SBPI #4 showing the injustice to Arizona in not only seed (they were the 4th
best team in country during the 2005-2006 season yet only earned a #8 seed in
NCAA tournament) but also sending them across country to face the top team
according to SBPI on its home floor. We
saw a similar scenario play out with #43 2009 UCLA – see below.
#98: 2008
Louisville 370.2 [27-9] – as a #3 seed Ville lost in the Elite 8 to #1
seed North Carolina. The Cardinals were SBPI
#12 that season while UNC was SBPI #5 so the Cardinals were beat by the better
team according to our ratings & NCAA Tournament seeds seemed inline.
#97: 2014 Virginia
370.3 [30-7] – the Cavaliers earned a #1 seed & lost in the Sweet
16 to #4 seed Michigan State by 2 points in a tight affair. UVA rated SBPI #11 while MSU was SBPI #15 –
suggesting very little difference between these teams as Virginia appeared to
be closer to a 3 seed vs. the 1 seed they received from winning both the ACC
regular season & tournament titles. While the Cavs lost to a lower rated SBPI
squad it would seem the experience of Spartans Head Coach Tom Izzo & his
team vs. the inexperience of the Virginia HC & team was a key variable in
deciding that outcome.
#96: 2009
Marquette 370.5 [25-10] – as a #6 seed Marquette lost in the 2nd
round to #3 seed Missouri by just 4 points.
Marquette was SBPI #13 – suggesting Marquette was under seeded by about
3 lines – while Mizzou was SBPI #11, in line with their seed. The game played out just as close with the
higher rated Tigers winning a tightly contested affair.
#95: 2011 UConn
370.6 [32-9] – the Huskies rolled through the tournament as a #3 seed
eventually winning the championship.
They were rated SBPI #10 that season & took down SBPI #4 Kentucky
& #8 San Diego State on their way to their last title under legend Jim
Calhoun.
#94: 2004 Oklahoma
State 370.7 [34-4] – as a #2 seed the Pokes reached the Final Four
before being knocked out by the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets by just 2
points. OSU was SBPI #6 while GT was SBPI
#9, thus the tight affair we saw in the national semifinals was not a surprise.
#93: 2010
Villanova 370.8 [25-8] – Nova, as a #2 seed, lost in the 2nd
round to the St. Mary’s Gaels, who were rated SBPI #63, which is the 3rd
lowest rated team any Top 100 squad lost to.
Villanova was SBPI #8 that season, falling in-line with their seed –
however, they limped into the NCAA Tournament & it was not a complete
shocker they lost to the Gaels.
#92: 2007
Pittsburgh 371.2 [29-8] – the 3rd seeded Panthers lost in
the Sweet 16 to the 2nd seeded UCLA Bruins. UCLA rated SBPI #1 in 2007 while Pitt was SBPI
#8 meaning according to both seed lines & SBPI the expected result occurred
here, although this game occurred 1 round earlier than SBPI suggested.
#91: 2011 West
Virginia 371.3 [21-12] – WVU was seeded #5 & lost to #4 seed
Kentucky in the Round of 32. Amazingly
SBPI had UK #4 in the country, equal to their seed while the Mountaineers
checked in at SBPI #9 suggesting this was far too early a meeting between a
pair of Top 9 SBPI teams – the Elite 8 would have been more “accurate”. That UK team would reach the Final Four
before dropping a 1pt heartbreaker to the eventual national champion UConn.
#90: 2004 Wake
Forest 371.7 [21-10] – as a #4 seed the Deacons lost to #1 seed St.
Joseph’s by just 4 points in the Sweet 16.
WF was rated SBPI #5 while SJU was SBPI #10 suggesting SJU was likely
over- seeded by 1-2 lines while Wake was equally under-seeded by 1-2 lines,
leading to this very exciting matchup.
#89: 2003 Texas
371.8 [26-7] – the Longhorns were a #1 seed and advanced to the Final
Four before losing to Carmelo Anthony’s Syracuse team that was a #3 seed (went
on to win the championship). UT was SBPI
#6 while Syracuse was SBPI #14 meaning both teams were very close to the
correct seed – which really did not have an impact here anyway since Texas lost
in the Final Four. That was the first
championship for Syracuse under long time Head Coach Jim Boeheim, and the last
through 2013-2014.
#88: 2007 Clemson
371.9 [25-11] – the Tigers of 2007 are the only Top 100 SBPI team that
failed to reach the NCAA Tournament.
These Tigers instead went to the NIT where they advanced to the
Championship game only to fall to West Virginia by 5 at MSG. Using the SBPI would have been profitable
betting on Clemson through the NIT.
#87: 2014
Pittsburgh 372.0 [26-10] – last season’s Pitt team did not earn much
respect from the committee perhaps rightfully so lacking many big name wins
(went 1-6 vs. the ACC’s best teams) which landed them a 9 seed, just 1 spot
ahead of their SBPI #10 rating. The
Panthers ran into #1 seed Florida in the Round of 32 & were dispatched
rather easily further confirming their struggles vs. upper echelon teams. UF was SBPI #1 for the 2013-2014 season so
they did in fact lose to a much higher rated team – but probably deserved a
better seed themselves.
#86: 2010 Xavier
372.4 [26-9] – as a #6 seed X advanced to the Sweet 16 before losing by
5 points to the 5th seeded Kansas State Wildcats. Xavier was SBPI #7 suggesting they were well
under-seeded, while K-State checked in at SBPI #3 meaning Xavier did in fact
lose to the better team according to SBPI in a matchup that should have
probably occurred in the Elite 8 vs. Sweet 16.
#85: 2010 Purdue
372.5 [29-6] – despite rating just below Xavier in the SBPI the 2010
Boilermakers earned a #4 seed, two spots ahead of X most likely driven by the
perceived difference between the Big Ten vs. Atlantic Ten. Purdue wound up losing in the Sweet 16 (like
Xavier) in blowout fashion to #1 seed & SBPI #1 Duke. Check below to find out just how good that
2010 Duke team rated in the SBPI.
#84: 2014
Villanova 372.6 [29-5] – the second Wildcats team in the Top 100 also
bowed out in the Round of 32, this time to eventual champion UConn. Amazingly this is the 5th time in
Jay Wright’s tenure his Wildcats lost to the eventual national champion in the
NCAA Tournament (2005 Sweet 16 vs. UNC, 2006 Elite 8 vs. Florida, 2008 Sweet 16
vs. Kansas, 2009 Final Four vs. UNC, 2014 Round of 32 vs. UConn). This time around Villanova was rated SBPI #9
while UConn checked in at SBPI #23, meaning once again the Wildcats lost to a
much lower rated team although UConn was under seeded by some 3-4 seed lines.
#83: 2014 Kentucky
373.5 [29-11] – the 8th seeded UK Wildcats, starting 5
freshmen, advanced to the national championship game before falling to 7th
seeded UConn. UK was SBPI #8, which was
amazingly equal to their seed – meaning they were woefully under-seeded by some
5-6 spots (should have fallen on 2-3 line) – so their deep run in the tournament,
led by Head Coach John Calipari, came as no surprise to us.
#82: 2009
Washington 373.6 [26-9] – the 4th seeded Huskies fell to #5
seed Purdue by just 2 points in a tightly contested Round of 32
game. Washington was SBPI #12 during the
2009 season while the Boilermakers were SBPI #16 suggesting these teams should
in fact have been involved in this exact type of game: 4 seed vs. 5 seed in a
tight Round of 32 matchup.
#81: 2012 Syracuse
373.6 [34-3] – the Orange were a #1 seed & lost to #2 seed Ohio State
in the Elite 8. According to the SBPI
Syracuse was #5 while Ohio State was #1 that season suggesting the Orange lost
to the best team in the country. OSU did
go on to lose in the Final Four to SBPI #3 Kansas by 2 points in another
tightly contested affair.
#80: 2008
Tennessee 373.8 [31-5] – the 2nd seeded Vols lost in the
Sweet 16 to 3rd seeded Louisville in a matchup featuring SBPI #11
& #12 respectively. Tennessee was
probably seeded a line too high at #2 however it likely would not have mattered
much as they lost by 19 points to the Cardinals (6th worst loss to
end season of a Top 100 SBPI team), once again showing how much of an impact
experienced coaching & teams can have over the inexperienced (and worth
noting Tennessee picked a bad time to play their worst game of the season).
#79: 2013 Arizona
373.8 [27-8] – the Wildcats were woefully under seeded as a #6 in the
2013 NCAA Tournament (SBPI had them #8 thus suggesting a 2-3 seed was more
accurate) & thus fell early, in the Sweet 16 to SBPI #4 Ohio State by just
3 points. These Wildcats could have
advanced deeper in the Big Dance with proper seeding, but did lose to a higher
rated SBPI team in the Sweet 16.
#78: 2009 Missouri
374.8 [31-7] – these Tigers were the highest rated Mizzou team of the last
12 seasons (11th best of 2009) and not coincidentally advanced
further in the NCAA Tournament than any other Missouri team during this time
span, falling to #1 seed UConn in the Elite 8.
UConn was also rated a slot higher in SBPI as the 10th best
team of 2009, thus the Tigers did lose to the “better” team.
#77: 2004 Texas
375.9 [27-9] – these Longhorns were a #3 seed but the SBPI had them as
the 4th best team of ‘04, meaning they were under seeded by 1-2
lines. They lost in the Sweet 16 to #7
seed Xavier, a team that was even more under seeded as the Muskateers checked
in at 13th overall that season.
#76: 2008
Wisconsin 376.4 [31-5] – the Badgers were properly seeded on the 3 line
as SBPI #10 in 2008, but unfortunately ran into Stephen Curry led Davidson in
the Sweet 16. Davidson’s best team was
this one which was ranked #23 that season (their 2nd best team of
the last 12 years was the 2007 team that checked in at #84) showing their #10
seed was well under their true performance which suggested closer to a #6
seed. Davidson would go on to lose in
the Elite 8 to SBPI #2 Kansas by just 2 points, and those Jayhawks went on to
win the championship one week later. All
that means this loss by Wisconsin was not a bad one at all.
Check back next Tuesday for #75 to #51.
Please feel free to reach out with any questions, whether
specific or in general about the College Basketball SBPI.
Email me directly: boss@thesportsboss.com
Visit my website: www.thesportsboss.com
Follow me on Twitter: @SportsBoss
COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2014
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