I will breakdown each conference and the team’s who I view
as a “lock” right now, who are likely to dance, and who are still alive but
need to do some work (obviously any team that wins their conference tournament
gets a bid, but in this last bucket I am only including team’s whose record/RPI
could still get them an at-large bid if they play well down the stretch). Teams are also listed in the order I view
their seeding or chances of receiving a bid.
America East:
Stony Brook
Atlantic Ten:
Temple
Looking
good: St. Louis, Xavier
Need
wins: UMass. The Minutemen went 1-1
this past week, and have an RPI hovering around #70 – not good for chances of
an at-large to be frank. But with an
18-7/7-4 record they are still alive.
With games remaining vs. Temple & Xavier, the opportunity is there
for big wins – they most likely need at least a split in those and to win their
other two to have a legit shot barring a big run in the A-10 Tourney. LaSalle, losers of 3 straight with an RPI
around #85 has been removed as a potential at-large recipient. The A-10 appears to be a 3 bid league, with a
fourth an unlikely option.
ACC: North
Carolina
Looking
good: Duke, Florida State, Virginia
Need
wins: Miami (FL), NC State. Miami didn’t
do themselves any favors this past week losing a pair of games to UNC and
Florida State. But with an RPI of #42,
and a key win @ Duke they are still alive for an at-large – though a
potentially tough closing schedule may be tough to navigate through 4-1, which
is what I think they need to be in a good position heading into the ACC
Tourney. NC State could have nearly
sealed a bid last night had they not blown a 20pt second half lead @ Duke. Even with that loss they are still in
position to grab an at-large, but need a signature win as they so far have gone
0-5 vs. ranked teams. Home games with
Florida State and North Carolina in their next two will give them a chance to
achieve that big win – get one of those, and go 2-1 in their remaining three
and they will be well positioned.
Atlantic Sun:
Belmont
This
league will likely be decided between Belmont and Mercer in the A-Sun
Tourney. These two teams played earlier
in the year, way earlier in the year on December 3rd and Belmont won
by 4 on their home floor. The return
trip is the last game of the regular season, Feb. 25th at Mercer,
and a likely third meeting in the conference tournament final will be the
determining factor.
Big 12: Kansas
Looking
good: Missouri, Baylor, Iowa State
Need
wins: Kansas State, Texas. KState
did themselves no favors this past week blowing a double digit lead in Austin,
and losing to cross-town rival Kansas on Big Monday. The Wildcats do have wins over Alabama, Long
Beach State and Missouri so far which places them with a very strong profile –
but a 6-7 conference record needs to be improved to improve their chances for
an at-large. State needs at least a 3-2
finish to their conference schedule, and maybe even 4-1 depending on how they
do in their conference tourney. With
their next 3 vs. teams I view as tourney teams (Baylor, Missouri, Iowa State),
and the first two of those on the road, picking up a win @ Baylor or @ Missouri
may be critical. The Longhorns, new to
this week’s edition, have reeled off 4 straight wins to get them in the
discussion, especially with a rising RPI of #39, even though they lack a
signature win. With a favorable closing
schedule, if they could finish up 4-1 that would put them at 21-10/11-7, in
very good position.
Big East: Syracuse
Looking
good: Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame
Need
wins: West Virginia, UConn, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, South Florida. This Big East this season is down from what
it has recently been, but in a way that only makes it much tougher to decipher
between these “bubble teams.” When
comparing these 5 teams there is not much difference in their overall profiles,
but there are big differences in certain aspects such as RPI, conference
record, and key wins. I currently
stacked them as I estimate their chances of receiving an at-large bid,
including adding USF to this edition as even though they are 16-10 overall,
they are 9-4 in conference play and no Big East team has even been left out of
the dance if they have been better than .500 in conference play – even at .500
there may have been a few that were left out, if that. But in the new age of unbalanced schedules,
which has led to USF playing doubles vs. BE bottom-dwellers Pitt, Providence
and Villanova, definitely a .500 plus record will be needed for them to have
any shot at a bid – target 11-7, 12-6 would get them a bid in my opinion for
certain. The Big East Tournament, always
one of the best sporting events of the year, will be absolutely critical for
all these teams – so for now we will just leave this conference as such without
dissecting each team any more, and as the games and weeks pass hopefully we get
a clearer picture of the pecking order.
Big Sky: Weber
State
Like
the Atlantic Sun discussed above, the Big Sky will likely come down to a battle
between Weber State and Montana. On Jan
14th WST took down Montana rather easily which is why they hold the
current bid in this edition, but the return game is on Feb 25th @
Montana, with a likely 3rd meeting in the conference tournament
final to determine the automatic bid.
Big South:
UNC-Asheville
Big Ten: Ohio
State
Looking
good: Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana
Need
wins: Purdue. What a difference a
week can make when projecting at-large spots for the Big Ten. Last week Purdue was stacked last of the
three with Illinois & Minnesota; this week they are the only remaining
team. Illinois has now lost 7 of 8, most
likely eliminating any realistic shot they have at the big dance, and likely
putting Bruce Weber’s job on the line.
Minnesota does have a nice road win @ Indiana, but currently sitting at
5-8 in the conference, #65 in the RPI, and no OOC wins to speak of has likely
eliminated them from a potential at-large, of course barring any deep run in
the Big Ten Tourney. Purdue checks in
this week at 17-9/7-6, #46 RPI – all decent numbers, but not great. The Boilers are 0-6 vs. ranked teams, but do
have decent wins over Temple, Iona and Miami (FL) earlier in the season. They close the season with 3 of 5 at home, and
3 of 5 vs. ranked teams – so the chances for big wins are there, the only
question is can they take advantage?
Big West: Long
Beach State
If LBST
does not win their conference tournament they would still receive a bid, thus taking one away from the current
at-large pool.
Colonial: Drexel
Need
wins: VCU, George Mason. Both these
squads continue winning games, and have impressive records, however all 3
schools including VCU still have RPI’s in the 80s, which means it’s unlikely
all 3 will get an invite. VCU is
currently 2-3 vs. Top 100 teams, including a win over USF – they will face #64
RPI Northern Iowa in bracket-busters over the weekend. Drexel is 3-2 vs. Top 100 schools with wins
over Princeton, VCU and George Mason. The
Dragons will face fellow NCAA bubble team Cleveland State on the road in
bracket-busters this weekend which will be a critical contest for the at-large chances
of both teams. Also keep in mind Drexel
did beat both VCU and George Mason in the team’s only regular season meetings
(both were at home however). George
Mason is 2-3 vs. Top 100 squads beating Bucknell and just this week taking down
VCU on a 3 at the buzzer. With all that
data I have changed the conference champ to Drexel for now since they are 2-0
vs. their competition for a bid, realizing the Colonial Tournament will be
immensely important for all involved – and if someone else was to win the
conference tourney 100% not all three of these schools would receive a bid.
Conference USA:
Memphis
Looking
good: Southern Mississippi
Need
wins: UCF. The Golden Knights do
have a nice OOC win over UConn, and have taken down Memphis during conference
play. And even with the close loss @ USM
on this past Saturday their RPI jumped from #62 to #55 – more wins are needed,
most likely they need to close 4-1 or better which would put them at 21-8/11-5
heading into their conference tournament.
Horizon: Valparaiso
The
Horizon is traditionally a one bid conference and there isn’t any reason to
think that will change this year. With
CSU losing 3 straight they have been replaced by Valparaiso in my
projections. Valpo has now taken the lead in the conference
standings, has risen ahead of CSU in the RPI, and has also beat CSU twice this
season. Both squads will be a part of
the bracket-busters games as CSU will host Drexel, while Valparaiso will travel
to the West Coast for a matchup with Loyola Marymount. Can Valpo accomplish the tough task of beating
CSU for a third time in the conference tourney?
Keep in mind this league is extremely competitive with not much
difference between the top 8 teams – so the tournament is sure to be exciting,
probably not winding up with a VALPO/CSU Final, and likely resulting in the
only bid offered to the Horizon.
Ivy: Harvard
If HAR
does not win their conference during the regular season (remember the Ivy
League does not have a conference tournament) they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding
to the pool of current at-large teams.
HAR lost their first Ivy League game this past weekend, and thus only
holds a one game lead in the loss column over Yale and Penn – two teams they
will play again this year, but both are at home. Still very likely HAR wins the auto-bid from
the Ivy.
MAAC: Iona
If IONA
does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of
current at-large teams.
MAC: Akron
If
AKRON does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus
adding to the pool of current at-large teams.
This week I have replaced Ohio with Akron as the Bobcats have struggled
of late in conference play and have fallen 3 games behind Akron in the loss
column. It remains very unlikely this
league gets more than one bid, with the current crop of teams thinking at-large
from this conference having RPI’s in the 80s at best.
MEAC: Norfolk
State
Missouri Valley:
Wichita State
Need
wins: Creighton. The Blue Jays have
fallen from a lock to be in the field to the “need wins” grouping after
dropping three straight, the last of which was a blow-out home loss to Wichita
State. While the Shockers now appear to
be the class of the MVC, Creighton is still touting a #28 RPI with wins over
WSU and San Diego State. This week’s
bracket-buster game hosting Long Beach State is very critical to Creighton’s at
large-prospects as a loss there could be the final death blow without a MVC
Tournament Title.
Mountain West:
UNLV
Looking
good: New Mexico, San Diego State
Need
wins: Colorado State, Wyoming. I
frankly do not think either of these teams has much of a shot at receiving an
at-large, but I will keep them on the list for at least one more week – the
loser of their matchup this weekend in Colorado Springs will be removed for
certain however. Both teams have HUGE
games this coming week besides their head to head matchup as CSU faces New
Mexico at home, while Wyoming goes to San Diego State. Both teams need wins, and BIG wins in a hurry
to remain in the conversation.
Northeast: LIU
Brooklyn
LIUB
has grabbed my projected auto-bid from the NE based on their overtaking of
Wagner in the standings, and the fact Long Island already beat Wagner twice
this season. Similar to CSU/VALPO
discussed above, the potential third meeting could have a bid on the line – and
it is tough to beat a team three times in one season.
Ohio Valley:
Murray State
If MSU
does not win their conference tournament they would still receive a bid, thus taking one away from the current
at-large pool. Murray State finally saw
their undefeated season come to an end, but they have bounced back nicely with
a pair of wins and covers – prior to these two covers they were really
struggling ATS wise as no question the pressure of the undefeated record was impacting
their performance. Without the pressure
of a potentially undefeated season look for them to close the regular season
and conference tournament strongly, and hope for a good seed and draw to make
some real noise come mid March.
Pac 12: California
Looking good: Arizona,
Washington. The Pac 12 this season is
very similar to the Big East, minus the top teams. The top 3 teams seem to be Cal, Arizona and
Washington and all appear to be in decent shape as far as receiving a bid
goes. Cal has really taken control of
the conference in recent weeks, winning 3 straight and 8 of 10, climbing to #37
in the latest RPI. Arizona also appears
to be peaking at the right time winning 5 straight and 6 of 7, likely locking
in their bid although their seeding may be lower than some expect with an RPI
close to #70. Washington may be playing
the best of the three teams right now, if that is possible seeing how well ARI
and CAL are playing, as the Huskies have won 7 of 8 and 10 of 12. These teams will be spending the rest of
their regular seasons jockeying to improve their seeding.
Need
wins: Oregon, Colorado, Stanford. These
three teams are very close to each other as far as resume goes – a key to
determining the order of chances they have at grabbing an at-large will be the
round robin they still have to play vs. each other – all 3 teams sit at 1-1
right now vs. the other two. None of the
three teams has beaten Cal, but Colorado and Stanford will get another chance
(OREG is 0-2 already). Both Oregon and
Colorado are 2-1 vs. ARI & WAS, while STAN is 0-2. But the reason STAN gets to remain on the
list is they are the only one of the three with any OOC wins to even mention,
beating NC State and Colorado State earlier in the season. Look for at least one of these teams to be
removed either next edition or the one that follows.
Patriot: Bucknell
SEC: Kentucky
Looking
good: Florida, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State
Need
wins: Alabama, Ole Miss, Arkansas. Similar
to the Pac 12 that has three teams in the “need wins” group, these three
schools will still play a round robin amongst themselves which will start to
weed out the contenders from the pretenders.
Alabama is still sitting the best of this group, and it’s almost to the
point the other two schools will be removed.
ALA has an RPI of #35, has beaten both the other schools listed here,
and also picked up OOC wins over Wichita State, Purdue and VCU. Both Ole Miss and Arkansas need to close
extremely strong and play well in the SEC Tournament, which seems unlikely at
this point; but they still remain on the list with at least a shot at winning
enough games to receive consideration.
Southern: Davidson
If DAV
does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of
current at-large teams. Davidson hosts
Wichita State in bracket-busters this weekend, which will be a very big
opportunity for them to bolster their resume if an at-large bid was the only
option.
Southland: Texas-Arlington
SWAC: Mississippi
Valley State
Summit: Oral
Roberts
If OR
does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of
current at-large teams. OR hosts Akron
at 2pm tomorrow in bracket-busters play.
Sun Belt: Middle
Tennessee State
If MTSU
does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a
bid, thus adding to the pool of current at-large teams.
West Coast: St.
Mary’s
Looking
good: Gonzaga
Those
two teams are near locks to
be in the field, so if anyone else was to win the conference tournament that
would likely take away a bid from the current at-large pool.
Need
wins: BYU. The Cougars continue to
play well of late including picking up an OOC win @ Virginia Tech a few weeks
ago. Unfortunately they were swept by
St. Mary’s this year, but they did pick up a home win over Gonzaga which will
help their case. The Cougars were not
invited to partake in bracket-busters, so they will have to rely on St. Mary’s
winning @ Murray State, and to a lesser extent Loyola Marymount taking down
Horizon foe Valpo.
WAC: Nevada
If NEV
does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of
current at-large teams. Nevada travels
to Iona tomorrow in bracket-busters play, and that would be a very nice win for
the Wolfpack to post on their resume.
FIELD: 68
AUTOMATIC BIDS: 31
LOOKING GOOD: 25
Currently I project 56
of the 68 bids are
earned.
NEED WINS: 24
TEAMS I LISTED FOR 12 REMAINING SPOTS
Keep in mind however that DOES NOT include the upsets we will see during Conference
Tournament week where teams that are LOCKS
from smaller conferences lose a game in their conference tournament and hence use
an at-large bid on themselves. We are
likely to see at least three of those instances, so essentially we have about 26
teams jockeying for position to earn ~9 spots.
Here are the 12
teams I currently believe will get a bid (in no order):
Kansas State Miami,
FL
NC State Oregon
West Virginia VCU
Cincinnati UConn
Purdue Creighton
Alabama BYU
First four out:
Texas Seton Hall
UCF George Mason
MULTIPLE BID CONFERENCES:
Big East: 8 ACC:
6 Big Ten: 6 SEC: 5 A
10: 3 Big12: 5 Colonial: 2 MWC:
3 Pac 12: 4 WCC: 3 MVC: 2 CUSA: 2
Differences from my bracket vs. the bracketologist himself,
Mr. Joe Lunardi @ espn.com
My latest
projection: Bracketologist:
Seton Hall – first four out Seton
Hall – IN
Illinois – not even on list of “need wins” Illinois
– IN (last four IN)
Xavier – IN Xavier
– first four out
Texas – first four out Texas
– IN
VCU – IN VCU
– not listed
Oregon – IN Oregon
– next four out
The biggest differences appear to be:
Illinois, who he has
as playing in one of the #12 seed play-in games vs. me just removing the Illini
from consideration. Illinois has 10
losses, is 5-8 in conference, has an RPI around #60, and has lost 7 of 8 games
– how he can still have them in the dance I do not understand. I feel I am correct with Illinois.
VCU, who I have in the field, is not listed anywhere on the
sheet of Mr. Mid-Major himself, even his top 16 bubble teams. With the three CAA teams (Drexel, VCU and
George Mason) all having very solid seasons in the W/L column, and the success
of this league in the past as far as NCAA Tournament wins goes, I find it hard
to believe two of these teams will not get an invite. I feel Joe is missing the boat here on VCU or
George Mason getting a bid – really comes down to my feeling 2 of those 3 will
get a bid so long as one of the three wins the conference tournament – and if
two face each other in the conference tournament final those two will get bids.
The rest of the differences were very close calls as you can
see, and with so much of the season still to play there will be lots of changes
to those current projections. We can
re-address down the road.
COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2012
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