2012 NCAA Tournament- Projected Field Updated Thru 2/9

2012 NCAA Tournament – Projected Field – UPDATED THRU 2/9 GAMES

As we currently sit about midway through the conference schedule, let’s take our first look at the projected field for this year’s NCAA Tournament.  I will breakdown each conference and the team’s who I view as a “lock” right now, who are likely to dance, and who are still alive but need to do some work (obviously any team that wins their conference tournament gets a bid, but in this last bucket I am only including team’s whose record/RPI could still get them an at-large bid if they play well down the stretch).  Teams are also listed in the order I view their seeding or chances of receiving a bid.

America East: Stony Brook

Atlantic Ten: Temple

                Looking good: Xavier, St. Louis

                Need wins: UMass, LaSalle.  LaSalle took a pair of tough road losses by a combined 6pts to non-tourney teams which knocked them down a peg.  They still sit OK, but it’s unlikely the A10 will get more than 4 bids (and 4 is not guaranteed with the RPI’s of UMass #66 & LaSalle #76) – and with 3 locked in they are battling with UMass for the possible last spot.

ACC: North Carolina

                Looking good: Duke, Florida State, Virginia

                Need wins: Miami (FL), NC State.  Miami picked up a resume building win @ Duke this past weekend which really increases their chances of picking up a bid, especially with them closing the season with 5 of 8 @ home.  NC State is still in position to win and get in, but currently sit at 0-4 vs. ranked teams this season (not helping their case) – they have 3 more games vs. team’s currently ranked, two at home and likely need a win in one of those three to seal a bid.

Atlantic Sun: Belmont

Big 12: Kansas

                Looking good: Missouri, Baylor, Iowa State

                Need wins: Kansas State.  KState has wins over Alabama, Long Beach State and Missouri so far which places them with a very strong profile.  But sitting at 6-5 in Big 12 means more wins are needed to secure a bid – they still face the “big 3” in conference play back to back to back starting on Big Monday hosting Kansas.  At least one win in those 3 I feel is needed.

Big East: Syracuse

                Looking good: Marquette, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame

                Need wins: West Virginia, UConn, Cincinnati, Seton Hall.  Notre Dame moved up to “looking good” after picking up wins over Marquette and @ West Virginia.  Record wise Cincinnati sits best of this group however their RPI of #97 is terrible and probably means a 10-8 minimum record in Big East with a few quality wins is necessary.  Cincy does face a relatively easy schedule down the stretch with only 3 games vs. teams that could be dancing: a pair vs. Marquette and hosting Louisville.  Seton Hall only remains on the list because of their strong RPI that currently sits at #32 – like Cincinnati they too have an easy schedule down the stretch only facing two teams with NCAA Tourney chances: @ Cincinnati and hosting Georgetown.  Need at least 4-2 down stretch, possibly 5-1 and some success in BET to get their first bid since 2006.  

Big Sky: Weber State

Big South: UNC-Asheville

Big Ten: Ohio State

                Looking good: Michigan State, Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin

                Need wins: Illinois, Minnesota, Purdue.  Illinois has lost 4 of 5, but they have beaten Michigan State, Ohio State and Gonzaga on season – so they have the signature wins which has bolstered their RPI to #33, but need more wins and to break out of their current funk as the season winds down.   Minnesota has no big wins to hang their hat on but will have plenty of chances down the stretch to change that facing Wisconsin, Indiana (whom they already beat), Ohio State and Michigan State – with 3 of those 4 games at home.  Purdue currently appears to be the longest shot in this conference (almost were removed this edition) having lost 2 straight, 4 of 5, 5 of 7 and 6 of 8.  They also have gone 0-6 vs. ranked teams so far, with their only key OOC wins coming over Miami (FL) & Temple.  With an RPI of #60 currently they most likely need to close regular season 5-2 and win a game or two in their conference tourney.

Big West: Long Beach State

                If LBST does not win their conference tournament they would still receive a bid, thus taking one away from the current at-large pool.

Colonial: VCU

                Need wins: Drexel, George Mason

Conference USA: Memphis

                Looking good: Southern Mississippi

                Need wins: UCF.  The Golden Knights do have a very nice OOC win over UConn, and have taken down Memphis  during conference play, but need to keep winning as their RPI sits at #62, and they are clearly third in the CUSA pecking order.  A win @ USM on Saturday would really help their cause.

Horizon: Cleveland State

                If CSU does not win their conference tournament they would still receive a bid, thus taking one away from the current at-large pool.

Ivy: Harvard

                If HAR does not win their conference during regular season (remember the Ivy League does not have a conference tournament) they would still receive a bid, thus taking one away from the current at-large pool.

MAAC: Iona

                If IONA does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of current at-large teams.

MAC: Ohio

                If OHIO does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of current at-large teams.

                Need wins: Akron.  The Zips sit at #62 in the RPI ratings, and have an OOC win over Mississippi State in November, but they will need to continue winning to have a shot at an at-large bid come Selection Sunday.

MEAC: Norfolk State

Missouri Valley: Wichita State

                Looking good: Creighton

                Those two teams are locks to be in the field, so if anyone else was to win the conference tournament that would take away a bid from the current at-large pool.

Mountain West: UNLV

                Looking good: San Diego State, New Mexico

                Need wins: Colorado State, Wyoming.  CSU has a very strong RPI at #30 which bodes well for their chances of an invite.  Wyoming is added for this version based on their win over UNLV this past weekend.  With an RPI in the 60s and no key OOC wins they still have a lot of work to do, but sitting at 18-5 they are still alive.

Northeast: Wagner

                If WAG does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of current at-large teams.

Ohio Valley: Murray State

                If MSU does not win their conference tournament they would still receive a bid, thus taking one away from the current at-large pool.

Pac 12: Arizona

Looking good: California

                Need wins: Washington, Colorado, Oregon, Stanford.  The Pac 12 as a whole is extremely bunched up with not much difference between the six teams I list here.  The close to the regular season will be very important, as will the Pac 12 Tournament.  Still too tough to call, but it feels like this league will get anywhere between 2-4 bids depending on how the season plays out.

Patriot: Bucknell

SEC: Kentucky

                Looking good: Florida, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State

                Need wins: Alabama, Ole Miss, Arkansas.  Alabama is sitting best of this group of three with an RPI of #29 and a 16-7 record.  But the Tide still hasn’t picked up a signature win, and lost to Georgetown and Kansas State in OOC play.  Ole Miss also has no true signature wins although they did beat Mississippi State and Miami (FL), but losses to Marquette, Southern Miss, Middle Tennessee and Dayton isn’t helping their case.  Arkansas is now 0-7 on road after a bad loss to Georgia and is now on the fringes of being left out of the next edition

Southern: Davidson

                If DAV does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of current at-large teams.

Southland: Texas-Arlington

SWAC: Mississippi Valley State

Summit: Oral Roberts

                If OR does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of current at-large teams.

Sun Belt: Middle Tennessee State

                If MTSU does not win their conference tournament they would still receive a bid, thus taking one away from the current at-large pool.

West Coast: St. Mary’s

                Looking good: Gonzaga

                Those two teams are locks to be in the field, so if anyone else was to win the conference tournament that would take away a bid from the current at-large pool.

                Need wins: BYU

WAC: Nevada

                If NEV does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of current at-large teams.

FIELD: 68

AUTOMATIC BIDS: 31

LOOKING GOOD: 25

Currently I project 56 of the 68 bids are earned.  

NEED WINS: 26 TEAMS I LISTED FOR 12 REMAINING SPOTS

Keep in mind however that DOES NOT include the upsets we will see during Conference Tournament week where teams that are LOCKS from smaller conferences lose a game in their conference tournament and hence use an at-large bid on themselves.  We are likely to see at least three of those instances, so essentially we have about 26 teams jockeying for position to earn ~9 spots.

Here are the 12 teams I currently believe will get a bid (in no order):

UMass                                                                  Miami, FL

NC State                                                              Kansas State

Illinois                                                                   Drexel

Cincinnati                                                            UConn

Akron                                                                    Washington

Alabama                                                              BYU

First four out:

Colorado State                                                  George Mason

West Virginia                                                     Oregon