2012 NCAA Tournment - Projected Field

2012 NCAA Tournament – Projected Field

As we currently sit about midway through the conference schedule, let’s take our first look at the projected field for this year’s NCAA Tournament.  I will breakdown each conference and the team’s who I view as a “lock” right now, who are likely to dance, and who are still alive but need to do some work (obviously any team that wins their conference tournament gets a bid, but in this last bucket I am only including team’s whose record could still get them an at-large bid if they play well down the stretch).

America East: Stony Brook

Atlantic Ten: Temple

                Looking good: LaSalle, Xavier, St. Louis

                Need wins: UMass, Dayton, St. Joseph’s (PA)

ACC: North Carolina

                Looking good: Duke, Florida State, Virginia

                Need wins: NC State, Miami (FL)

Atlantic Sun: Belmont

Big 12: Baylor

                Looking good: Missouri, Kansas, Iowa State

                Need wins: Kansas State

Big East: Syracuse

                Looking good: Marquette, Georgetown, Louisville

                Need wins: West Virginia, UConn, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Seton Hall

Big Sky: Weber State

Big South: UNC-Asheville

Big Ten: Ohio State

                Looking good: Michigan State, Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin

                Need wins: Illinois, Minnesota, Purdue

Big West: Long Beach State

If LBST does not win their conference tournament they would still receive a bid, thus taking one     away from the current at-large pool.

Colonial: VCU

                Need wins: Drexel, George Mason

Conference USA: Memphis

                Looking good: Southern Mississippi

                Need wins: UCF

Horizon: Cleveland State

If CSU does not win their conference tournament they would still receive a bid, thus taking one away from the current at-large pool.

Ivy: Harvard

If HAR does not win their conference during regular season (remember the Ivy League does not have a conference tournament) they would still receive a bid, thus taking one away from the current at-large pool.

MAAC: Iona

If IONA does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of current at-large teams.

MAC: Ohio

If OHIO does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of current at-large teams.

                Need wins: Akron

MEAC: Norfolk State

Missouri Valley: Wichita State

                Looking good: Creighton

Those two teams are locks to be in the field, so if anyone else was to win the conference tournament that would take away a bid from the current at-large pool.

Mountain West: UNLV

                Looking good: San Diego State, New Mexico

                Need wins: Colorado State

Northeast: Wagner

If WAG does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of current at-large teams.

Ohio Valley: Murray State

If MSU does not win their conference tournament they would still receive a bid, thus taking one away from the current at-large pool.

Pac 12: Arizona

                Need wins: Washington, Stanford, California, Oregon, Colorado

Patriot: Bucknell

SEC: Kentucky

                Looking good: Florida, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State

                Need wins: Alabama, Arkansas, Ole Miss

Southern: Davidson

If DAV does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of current at-large teams.

Southland: Texas-Arlington

SWAC: Mississippi Valley State

Summit: Oral Roberts

If OR does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of current at-large teams.

Sun Belt: Middle Tennessee State

If MTSU does not win their conference tournament they would still receive a bid, thus taking one away from the current at-large pool.

West Coast: St. Mary’s

                Looking good: Gonzaga

Those two teams are locks to be in the field, so if anyone else was to win the conference tournament that would take away a bid from the current at-large pool.

                Need wins: BYU

WAC: Nevada

If NEV does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of current at-large teams.

FIELD: 68

AUTOMATIC BIDS: 31

LOOKING GOOD: 24

Currently I project 55 of the 68 bids are earned.  

NEED WINS: 28 TEAMS I LISTED FOR 13 REMAINING SPOTS

Keep in mind however that DOES NOT include the upsets we will see during Conference Tournament week where teams that are LOCKS from smaller conferences lose a game in their conference tournament and hence use an at-large bid on themselves.  We are likely to see at least three of those instances, so essentially we have about 28 teams jockeying for position to earn ~10 spots . 
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