NBA Strength of Schedule Measured using Days Rest
Going into the 2011-2012 NBA campaign we all knew how tough
the schedule was going to be on every team – cramming 66 games into some 120
days would make for quite a few nights for each and every team where there is
just no gas left in the tank to compete at the level needed. But what many didn’t realize is how unfair
the league’s schedule was for some teams, and how others “benefited.”
Heading into the season I came up with each teams SOS using
my formula which entails placing 2 thru 10 games in their own buckets, testing
how many night’s teams would typically play said amount of games during a
regular NBA season vs. how many night’s teams were playing those same games
this year, then taking the most “extreme” cases we see in this year’s schedule
and aggregating. For example, we all
know teams typically would not play back to back to back games during a
standard NBA regular season – so for every instance I saw that for each team
that counted as “1” – I did that exercise for every bucket 2 thru 10 games and
counted each instance of a team being “stressed” as “1”.
Before the season here is what the SOS looked like, in rank
order with top being toughest:
SOS
|
RANK
|
|
CHA
|
86
|
1
|
MEM
|
73
|
2
|
ATL
|
68
|
3
|
SA
|
67
|
4
|
IND
|
64
|
5
|
DET
|
62
|
6
|
LAC
|
62
|
6
|
CHI
|
61
|
8
|
BOS
|
58
|
9
|
GS
|
54
|
10
|
TOR
|
54
|
10
|
CLE
|
53
|
12
|
DAL
|
51
|
13
|
MIA
|
49
|
14
|
PHO
|
49
|
14
|
WAS
|
45
|
16
|
POR
|
44
|
17
|
UTA
|
44
|
17
|
PHI
|
42
|
19
|
DEN
|
41
|
20
|
HOU
|
40
|
21
|
NJ
|
38
|
22
|
SAC
|
37
|
23
|
ORL
|
36
|
24
|
OKC
|
35
|
25
|
MIL
|
34
|
26
|
NY
|
34
|
26
|
MIN
|
33
|
28
|
LAL
|
32
|
29
|
NO
|
31
|
30
|
What does this data mean?
Let’s take CHA for example as they, in my opinion, had the toughest
schedule this season. The 86 represents
that amount of times I viewed their games to be “stressed” – meaning playing
too many games in too few nights. What
is important to remember here is I use 9 buckets – 2 games, 3 games, 4
games….all the way to 10 games – and I look at each bucket to see where playing
that # of games in the corresponding # of nights is so much different than
regular seasons. So we can see a #
higher than the 66 games a team is playing because some games they will be
“stressed” on multiple buckets – meaning, some games will fit the back to back
to back bucket, as well as a team playing 5 games in 7 nights.
What can this information tell us? Well, we all know CHA is brutal this season,
having a current record of 3-24 which is the worst in the NBA and on pace to be
the worst winning % of all time for any regular season. But that is not ALL because of the tough
schedule I suggest they are playing – it also has to do with their personnel
obviously. BUT, we can use this data
many ways – the biggest way in my opinion is by looking at the SOS that I break
out above season to date, and comparing that to what is remaining – and if a
team has a significantly easier or tougher schedule compared to what they
already played it could be the right time to be bullish or bearing on these
teams. Let’s take a look at the SOS #s
above broken out by what teams have played season to date, vs. what teams have
remaining:
Wins
|
To Date
|
RANK
|
Remaining
|
RANK
|
|||
CHI
|
23
|
47
|
1
|
14
|
28
|
||
OKC
|
21
|
19
|
11
|
16
|
26
|
||
MIA
|
21
|
15
|
17
|
34
|
12
|
||
PHI
|
19
|
27
|
7
|
15
|
27
|
||
SA
|
19
|
23
|
8
|
44
|
6
|
||
ATL
|
18
|
33
|
4
|
35
|
10
|
||
ORL
|
17
|
22
|
10
|
14
|
28
|
||
DAL
|
17
|
18
|
13
|
33
|
13
|
||
LAC
|
17
|
14
|
20
|
48
|
4
|
||
IND
|
17
|
10
|
25
|
54
|
2
|
||
DEN
|
16
|
29
|
6
|
12
|
30
|
||
HOU
|
16
|
18
|
13
|
22
|
15
|
||
LAL
|
16
|
14
|
20
|
18
|
24
|
||
POR
|
15
|
23
|
8
|
21
|
17
|
||
BOS
|
15
|
8
|
29
|
50
|
3
|
||
MEM
|
14
|
18
|
13
|
55
|
1
|
||
UTA
|
14
|
13
|
22
|
31
|
14
|
||
MIN
|
13
|
15
|
17
|
18
|
24
|
||
NY
|
13
|
15
|
17
|
19
|
22
|
||
MIL
|
12
|
13
|
22
|
21
|
17
|
||
PHO
|
12
|
10
|
25
|
39
|
9
|
||
SAC
|
10
|
16
|
16
|
21
|
17
|
||
CLE
|
10
|
9
|
28
|
44
|
6
|
||
GS
|
10
|
6
|
30
|
48
|
4
|
||
TOR
|
9
|
32
|
5
|
22
|
15
|
||
DET
|
8
|
41
|
3
|
21
|
17
|
||
NJ
|
8
|
19
|
11
|
19
|
22
|
||
WAS
|
6
|
10
|
25
|
35
|
10
|
||
NO
|
4
|
11
|
24
|
20
|
21
|
||
CHA
|
3
|
46
|
2
|
40
|
8
|
The above chart is sorted by wins thru Sunday Feb 12, with
the middle box representing season to date SOS in left column and the rank of
that SOS in the right column, and the right box representing the same data
except it measures the remaining games of the season. A higher # in the SOS column means more
instances of a team being “stressed” and is viewed as a negative factor in this
exercise.
From this chart we can see CHI has played the toughest
schedule of any team in the NBA using my formula, already playing in 47 of
their 61 “stressed” incidents on the season.
Since their remaining schedule is ranked 2nd easiest [tied
with ORL only trailing DEN] that most likely bodes extremely well for them
solidifying their grip on the best record in the Eastern Conference, assuming
Derrick Rose isn’t hampered by his bad back [which seems like a safe assumption
based on yesterday’s MRI that revealed no bone issues, only muscle soreness] as
we move thru the season. We also see OKC
has the 26th rated SOS remaining which should allow them to continue
piling up wins and keep their stranglehold on the top spot in the Western
Conference.
PHI has been one of the best stories thus far of the ’11-’12
season and based on this analysis that is likely to continue as they currently
hold a 3.5 game lead over BOS in the Atlantic division and they also hold a massive
edge as far as SOS goes: season to date PHI has played the #7 SOS, while BOS
checks in at #29; what’s more, PHI closes the season out with the 4th
easiest schedule whereas BOS has the third toughest. Taking this into account, the fact this SOS
measures days rest, and BOS is a veteran team that is much more likely to be
impacted by playing more games in fewer nights and it seems PHI will win their
first division title since the 2000-2001 season when Allen Iverson led them to
an NBA Finals appearance. Can the Knicks
make a run to the playoffs? That is the
other key question in the Atlantic division as a season full of big dreams in
November has only turned into a big time disappointment thru about 40% of their
schedule. NY had the 4th
easiest schedule heading into the season so days rest was not going to be a
critical factor in their success, and looking at the season to date and
remaining schedule data the same story really holds true. Key to their season seems to be hinging on
new PG Jeremy Lin – whom we have all heard too much about in the past 7 days so
he will get no press here – and getting Carmelo Anthony & Amare Stoudemire
both playing at a high level and driving the team to play with more cohesion,
and intensity on the defensive end of the floor.
CHI will win the Central division, but the Pacers have
designs on being a factor when May rolls around. IND has clearly been one of the surprise
teams so far, but a closer look at these SOS figures may tell a critical story
– IND has only been “stressed” 10 instances so far this season, one of the
lowest/easiest in the league, while their remaining schedule has a whopping 54
instances which only trails MEM for toughest in the league. I do think the Pacers have some nice pieces
in place, but we may see them falter some and I certainly expect their winning
% to drop below the .630 mark, where it currently sits. At the end of the regular season their
seeding in the playoffs will likely wind up close to where they are sitting now
- #5/#6.
In the Southeast MIA will win that division regardless of
any type of analysis that may show any obstacles they have to overcome – they
are just too talented, too hungry, and the rest of that division just cannot be
trusted [yes ORL and ATL that means you].
Comparing ORL and ATL for 2nd place as far as SOS goes is no
comparison – ATL was ranked 4th toughest heading into season, while
ORL was 7th easiest – currently, ORL still holds a big edge in
enjoying many more days rest between games vs. ATL. The two teams are virtually tied currently; I
give ATL the talent edge, and who knows when/if ORL is going to deal Dwight
Howard – they probably should deal him as it appears a safe bet he is walking
after this season – so I give ATL the edge even playing the tougher schedule.
Projected Eastern
Conference Playoff Seeds – as of 02/12:
- Chicago
- Miami
- Philadelphia
- Atlanta
- Orlando
- Boston
- Indiana
- New York
In the Northwest division OKC leads the way, and has the
best mark in the NBA. There was a lot of
hype on the Thunder heading into this season as potential NBA Championship
material, and to this point they have lived up to it. Heading into the season they had one of the
easier schedules, and the same holds true for their remaining slate as I rank
it #26 – plenty of rest between now and the playoffs for this young team. With the way this season is shaping up, and
the mostly veteran teams in the Western Conference, it seems OKC will only
extend its grasp on the top seed come May.
This division is stacked however, probably the best in the NBA with 4 of
the 5 teams over .500, and MIN certainly no slouch in their own right. I think it’s at least one year too early for
the Wolves to make a move into the playoffs, but the other three teams will be
in the mix. DEN appears to be in the
best shape as they currently sit in 2nd place, and have accomplished
that playing the 6th toughest schedule to date – they close with the
most days rest of any team in the NBA.
As long as Gallinari and Nene do not miss extended action due to their
lingering injuries, the Nuggets are a lock to make the playoffs and potentially
have home-court in a first round matchup.
POR has played the 8th toughest schedule to date, and has a
middle pack schedule remaining while UTA has played one of the easier schedules
so far, and also has a middle of the pack schedule remaining. With POR being the more talented and
experienced club, and already ahead of UTA in the standings, POR has to be
favored to finish above UTA come the end of the regular season.
The upstart LAC lead the Pacific division, which has been
ruled by the Lakers of late, and the Suns before that for nearly a decade. The season ending injury to Chauncey Billups
will definitely hurt, especially down the stretch executing in close games, but
there is still enough talent there led by the 1-2 punch of Paul and Griffin to
likely win that division – even considering their tough closing schedule rated
#4. Their neighbors, the Lakers, are the
only other team in the Pacific with a chance at making the playoffs – and rest
is a big factor in their success with all the veterans they have in their
rotation. Heading into the year the
Lakers had the second easiest schedule, and still close with #24 – so they will
clearly have enough rest down the stretch to be a factor come May.
In the Southwest division the Spurs and Mavericks lead the
way, with HOU and MEM also having designs on making the playoffs. The Spurs, who had the best record in the
Western Conference last regular season before losing to MEM in the first round,
are putting together another solid campaign even enduring the loss of Manu
Ginoboli for the better part of 20 games.
With Manu back, and Tony Parker playing at a high level, they have the
personnel to solidify a playoff berth – but the schedule is a HUGE issue right
now for their potential seeding as they face the 6th toughest
schedule down the stretch. I feel the
more into the season we get, the more this lack of rest will catch up with this
team. The defending champ Mavericks are
positioned nicely after a slow start to their campaign, and have an easier
schedule down the stretch than the Spurs.
As long as most of their key parts play a majority of their games they
will likely take over the top spot from the Spurs, and grab either the #2 or #3
seed. HOU has a couple game lead on MEM for
3rd place in this division, and they also have a BIG schedule edge
down the stretch as the Rockets face the #15 SOS, while the Grizzlies face the
toughest. The Grizzlies do expect to get
a key piece back shortly in Zach Randolph, but with that still likely a few
weeks away it may be too little too late this year for MEM. These two clubs, along with potentially UTA
will battle it out for the last playoff spot, and likely matchup with OKC in
Round 1.
Projected Western
Conference Playoff Seeds – as of 02/12:
- Oklahoma City
- Dallas
- LA Clippers
- San Antonio
- Denver
- LA Lakers
- Portland
- Houston
Quick take on some of my projected first round matchups,
here are the top 3:
WC #3 LA Clippers
vs. #6 LA Lakers: wow, how great would this be? I did not just set this up because it would
be great; this is the true projection of where I see the teams winding up. DAL and the LAC will likely be in a tussle
for the #2 seed, but I give the edge to the Mavericks with their championship
pedigree, and because the Clippers lost their go-to-guy Billups. We have already seen some nastiness between
these two clubs during the regular season which would only be ultra-hyped if
they were to meet in the playoffs. Let’s
keep our fingers crossed this matchup occurs!
EC #1 Chicago vs.
#8 New York: just last year we saw an 8 seed take down a 1 seed when MEM
easily dispatched SA– could it happen again just one year later? No question NY would be a dangerous team for
anyone to face in the first round from a simple star standpoint, with Carmelo
Anthony and Amare Stoudemire leading the way.
But defense and PG play will be a critical issue for the Knicks hopes of
pulling an upset.
EC #3 Philadelphia
vs. #6 Boston: the Sixers and their blue collar attitude would absolutely
relish the opportunity to play their division rival BOS in the first round of
the playoffs, that would be for certain.
And I think the C’s would also look forward to that if PHI does indeed
win the Atlantic – which would be the first time since 2007 BOS didn’t. I would expect a real slugfest with lots of
tight, low scoring, intense games that would likely last 6/7. COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS 2012
No comments:
Post a Comment