NFL Update after Week 15

NFL Update after Week 15

Each team has two games left in the 2011 season – and here is how the playoffs are setting up:

·         NFC: GB will lock up home-field either this week or next.  NO & SF are battling it out for the #2 seed and a bye in the Wild Card round – currently SF has the edge with an 8-2 conference record vs. NO’s 7-3.  SF closes with two road divisional contests, while NO hosts two divisions rivals – so we could potentially see a flip flop there.  The NFC East is still up for grabs with three teams still alive; most likely scenario still appears DAL wins it as they currently hold a 1gm lead.  Barring a complete collapse by either, ATL & DET appear to be the WC teams; keep in mind ATL won @ DET earlier in the season and would hold that tie-breaker if they wind up tied which will be enormous and the difference between playing @ SF/NO or @ NFC East winner; I currently project DET with 0.7 more wins so because it is 0.5 or higher I give them the #5 seed as of now.  If seeds hold to what is currently projected below we would see a pair of regular season rematches in the WC round – DET won @ DAL earlier in the season on a frantic late game comeback, while ATL and NO are divisional rivals who are set to play for the second time this season this week in NO – the Saints won by 3 @ ATL in Week 10.

·         AFC: NE was the big winner last week taking care of business in Denver, while the next 3 teams in the AFC all lost.  The Patriots now control their destiny for the #1 seed and home-field advantage – and with a pair of home divisional games to close out the season vs. MIA then BUF that looks to be the likely scenario.  BAL & PIT both let opportunities pass this week losing tough road games; thus the winner of the AFC North is still undecided.  Keep in mind BAL swept the season series from PIT – but PIT has the much easier closing schedule.  DEN still controls their destiny in the AFC West even with a loss to NE last week as OAK blew a 13pt 4^th quarter lead to DET and remains 1gm back – now tied with SD who put together another convincing win, hammering BAL on SNF.  OAK hosts SD last week of the season which will eliminate one from a chance at winning the division.  If DEN can win at home vs. KC in Week 17, and SD beats OAK that same day, DEN is assured of winning the division no matter what happens in any games this week.  The final WC spot looks like it will come down to CIN & NYJ thanks to crushing losses from the aforementioned Raiders, and TEN giving the Colts their first win of the season – CIN closes the season with a pair of home games, while the Jets have a tough close facing the Giants then travelling to a hot Miami squad.  Right now using this model the NYJ wind up with 0.08 more wins than CIN and take the last spot – which is obviously an extremely small projected margin.  If these projections hold true they would set up a rematch of a regular season game between the Jets and Ravens that BAL won convincingly on SNF early in the season, while DEN and PIT would renew their playoff rivalry having played each other 6 prior times in January including twice in the AFC Championship Game in the last 13 years.

There were no changes to projected playoff teams from last week’s edition.  If you go back to these projections following games in Week 3 we only have two changes to projected teams: PHI is out as a WC in NFC and ATL is in as a WC in NFC, while in the AFC SD is out as AFC West champs and DEN is in as AFC West champs.  Going back to these projections following Week 10 there is only one change with CHI being out as an NFC WC entrant, and ATL in that spot.  Not too bad, look how accurate these projections were, even all the way back to September! 

Seeding wise there were a few changes: in the AFC, the top 3 seeds were changed as NE went from #3 to #1, HOU dropped from #1 to #2, and BAL fell from #2 to #3 – all those moves were driven by game results as NE won, while HOU & BAL both lost.  In the NFC technically there were no changes – last version (as footnoted) I was not adjusting for tie-breakers as that can get very complex – but now that were are down to the last couple games it is a little easier process so we flipped NO & SF based on conference records.  But in reality there were no moves from last week.

These standings are solely based on projected wins, and do not take into consideration tie-breakers (other than BAL/PIT for the NFC North division title, and NO/SF for the #2 seed in the NFC) which will obviously occur especially when we are talking < 1 win variance within these projections.

Here are the latest projected standings:

ROUNDED
AFC East	Wins	Loss		NFC East	Wins	Loss
NE	12	4		DAL	9	7
NYJ	9	7		NYG	8	8
MIA	6	10		PHI	7	9
BUF	6	10		WAS	6	10
AFC North				NFC North
BAL	12	4		GB	14	2
PIT	12	4		DET	10	6
CIN	9	7		CHI	8	8
CLE	4	12		MIN	4	12
AFC South				NFC South
HOU	12	4		NO	12	4
TEN	8	8		ATL	9	7
JAC	5	11		CAR	6	10
IND	1	15		TB	4	12
AFC West				NFC West
DEN	9	7		SF	12	4
OAK	8	8		SEA	8	8
SD	8	8		ARI	8	8
KC	7	9		STL	2	14
Playoffs				Playoffs
#6 NYJ @ #3 BAL				#6 ATL @ #3 NO
#5 PIT @ #4 DEN				#5 DET @ #4 DAL
#1 NE				#1 GB
#2 HOU				#2 SF

I also did another view this week by actually projecting who I thought would win each game the last two weeks instead of using the power ratings/decimal system the usual projections entail.  Upon completion of that analysis, here are the changes to the standings above:

·         NFC: NO picked up the #2 seed with SF falling to #3 as I gave SF a loss @ SEA this week.  In addition, ATL & DET flipped spots with the Falcons moving up to the #5 seed as I had both teams going 1-1 finishing with identical 9-7 records which would give ATL the tie-breaker in that spot.

·         AFC: PIT won the AFC North and achieved the #3 seed after winning out combined with BAL losing @ CIN in Week 17.  That move would obviously also include BAL sliding down to the #5 seed and a trip to DEN.  Lastly, CIN grabs the #6 and final spot in the AFC after going 2-0 to close the season, while the Jets lose the final week in Miami and give up their spot.

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