NFL 2011 Season in Review – Part I

Another NFL season is in the books, and as we head into the playoffs here is part I of approximately 5 that will discuss some of the interesting statistics we saw this year using my performance ratings model (PR).  In this first edition we will discuss where the teams stacked up, what that should have meant to their record, and what it did mean at the end of the day.

	OFF	RANK		DEF	RANK		TOTAL	RANK		SOS		Wins
HOU	47.8	5		49.6	2		97.44	1		32		10
NO	57.4	1		37.5	20		94.94	2		31		13
PIT	45.5	10		48.9	3		94.41	3		29		12
BAL	40.6	16		50.2	1		90.75	4		28		12
PHI	47.2	7		42.9	7		90.03	5		16		8
SF	40.8	15		48.6	4		89.38	6		30		13
DAL	46.4	9		41.7	11		88.16	7		24		8
ATL	47.1	8		40.2	13		87.34	8		22		10
GB	53.5	3		32.7	27		86.19	9		27		15
NE	53.6	2		32.2	29		85.78	10		19		13
DET	45.5	11		39.9	16		85.41	11		12		10
NYJ	36.6	20		47.5	5		84.13	12		14		8
SD	47.8	6		36.3	23		84.06	13		23		8
CAR	49.2	4		32.5	28		81.66	14		25		6
NYG	44.3	13		36.5	22		80.78	15		3		9
OAK	44.3	12		36.2	24		80.47	16		20		8
CIN	37.1	19		42.8	8		79.94	17		26		9
MIA	36.2	23		42.3	9		78.41	18		5		6
CHI	36.3	21		41.8	10		78.16	19		10		8
DEN	36.3	22		38.8	18		75.09	20		18		8
SEA	33.8	26		41.3	12		75.09	20		13		7
BUF	42.9	14		31.2	30		74.13	22		4		6
WAS	35.3	24		38.9	17		74.13	22		8		5
KC	33.8	27		40.1	14		73.84	24		15		7
TEN	37.6	17		35.8	25		73.44	25		21		9
JAC	29.4	30		44.0	6		73.38	26		10		5
ARI	33.0	28		40.0	15		73.03	27		17		8
MIN	37.4	18		33.6	26		71.00	28		12		3
CLE	31.0	29		38.5	19		69.56	29		7		4
STL	27.2	32		36.8	21		63.91	30		2		2
TB	34.9	25		28.3	32		63.22	31		1		4
IND	29.3	31		29.1	31		58.44	32		6		2

The above figures represent how each team stacked up in the statistics I utilize to track true team performance.  Teams are rated on a scale of 160 per game, 80 on both offense and defense – so team’s that show a rating of 80 basically played average football, or an 8-8 type team over the course of a season. 

A very important factor when developing any models to numerically gauge team performance is to include both stats that measure “per attempt” depending on the metric, but also taking a look at “total” performance in the same stat.  For example, if one was to only use yards per rush and attempt to decipher if a team is solid running the ball with only that stat you could be misled – if team A rushes 6 times for 42 yards that would show 7 yards per carry, but if team B rushes for 100 yards on 20 carries that would show 5 yards per carry – and more than likely team B would represent a stronger running game then team A even though if you only use the yards per rush category you may not reach that conclusion.  In addition, SOS is very important; it is actually flat out critical to be able to see how strong a team’s opponents are before rushing to state one team is better because their statistics say so.  That phenomenon also needs to be applied to unit analysis – what I mean by that is when you are breaking teams down into rushing, passing, or any other bucket you may use.  Let’s discuss an example of this, and show how often listening to the media can be a big time downfall: in Week 17 Pittsburgh played at Cleveland, and the Pittsburgh passing offense came in ranked #11 in my ratings, while the Cleveland pass defense came in ranked #10.  Sounds about even, right?  Well not exactly.  For ease of discussion, and since for this precise example I am using it doesn’t have any impact because we are only talking stats here, let’s just assume Big Ben came into the game healthy, and both team’s had no significant injuries and were properly motivated to win this game.  What the media doesn’t take the time to figure out, but you MUST if you want to be successful at breaking games down, is PIT’s #11 pass offense came against the 5^th toughest schedule of passing defenses in the NFL; CLE’s #10 pass defense came against the 8^th easiest schedule vs. passing offenses.  When including the SOS into this analysis you can see PIT’s passing offense would have an edge, holding all other variables constant – yet the media would tout this as a close matchup, maybe even a small CLE edge because of the pure stats.  Be smarter than the media, and the guys in the desert – do your homework, it is the only way to be successful at playing these games.  Also, keep that in mind when building your own models and databases to handicap the NFL – there are various “splits” that should be utilized at all times to better forecast outcomes.  

Let’s take a closer look at the table on first page, and focus on the playoff teams.  The top 4 teams made the playoffs, then 2 of the next 3 missed (PHI, DAL), then the next 4 also made it – which means 9 of the top 11 in the performance ratings made the playoffs.  The last three spots went to NYG #15, CIN #17 & DEN #20.  For comparative purposes SEA rated a 67.3 last season and was #29 in the NFL – so the teams this season do not approach that level performance wise –record wise they certainly do.  Many people do not think DEN has much of a shot vs. PIT this week – but the numbers may tell a different story.  Last season’s epic WC upset in SEA had more of a discrepancy performance wise than this PIT/DEN game coming up on Sunday.  Last year NO was rated #7 vs. #28 SOS while SEA was #29 vs. #25 SOS – a 22 spot difference rating wise with similar SOS ranks.  This year PIT rates #3 vs. #29 SOS while DEN checks in at #20 vs. #18 SOS – a rating differential of only 17 spots; then add back in the fact DEN has played a tougher schedule by 11 spots and you can see true team performance wise this game should be a lot closer than last year’s was – Vegas should have this line lower than last season’s especially considering the fact PIT has a lot of injuries coming into this game.  That is something to keep an eye on Sunday for certain.

On to breaking down these numbers some.  HOU checking in at #1 has almost the identical rating of 2010 #1 SD – however HOU spent most of the season in the triple digits, and started dropping when Matt Schaub went down for the season.  Prior to Schaub going down HOU was playing 103.4 ball thru Wk10 – following the injury and subsequent move to mostly TJ Yates under center the Texans played 87.5 ball, which dropped their season rating below 100.  Obviously heading into the playoffs that needs to be adjusted for – team performance essentially slid about 15% once Schaub went down.  The Colts won the Andrew Luck sweepstakes and also finished the season ranked dead last in my performance ratings – also of note it was the lowest rating of any team over at least the last 3 seasons.  Hard to imagine one man can mean so much to a team, but that is what we saw this season when Indy lost Manning before the season started – last year IND was rated #13 vs. #13 SOS – a very solid club.  Another interesting team is Philadelphia, as they check in at #5 in the ratings, yet only went 8-8.  Here is a prime example where we can see the impact of SOS – look how high their SOS is compared to many of the teams around them – they actually have the highest SOS of the top 10 teams in the NFL – which clearly impacted their W/L record.  It is also not a coincidence the other team that stands out performance vs. wins wise is DAL – another NFC East team – the NFC East played the AFC East this season which certainly increased the strength of their schedules.

Top 5 Offenses:

1. Saints:  no surprise here as the Saints were on cruise control offensively for most of the season averaging a robust 34ppg on season, including 41ppg at home.  Brees was fabulous all season with a 110 QBR, which was second in the NFL only behind Rodgers.  Unfortunately for them they were not able to secure the #2 seed, and will likely have to play 2 road games vs. a top notch defense and potentially in very bad weather the next round if they are to reach another Super Bowl this season.
2. Patriots:  maybe somewhat surprising NE checks in above GB here but it was driven by NE having a slightly better running game, along with allowing less sacks.  This is the third straight season the Patriots offense has ranked #2, and they also are the only team that was ranked in top 5 last season offensively that repeated that feat this season.  Brady had a solid campaign, and hopes to lead NE to their first playoff win since 2007 next weekend.
3. Packers:  likely MVP Aaron Rodgers led a potent Packers attack that was tops in the league in scoring, and was 2^nd in passing behind the Saints in my PR.  GB is looking to become the first back to back Super Bowl winner since the ’03-’04 Patriots, and the first NFC team to accomplish the feat since the Dallas Cowboys in ’93-’94. 
4. Panthers:  maybe surprising here, but Cam Newton had the best rookie season passing wise in NFL history, and that always potent Panther rushing attack was in full effect this season even with a new head coach.  Things are looking up in Carolina with Cam under center, and the NFC South is stacked with great QB’s in himself, Brees and Ryan.
5. Texans:  this really shows just how well Houston was playing when Schaub was healthy that they could build up such a strong rating they could hang on to a top 5 ranking even with a rookie under center for the last 6 games.  With Schaub the offense was averaging 52, without him 41 for an average of 48.  Arian Foster also played a big part in the #5 offense in the NFL.  Next season with a health Schaub, Foster and Andre Johnson the Texans will certainly be a force on the offensive side of the ball.

Top 5 Defenses:

1. Ravens:  Baltimore takes over the top spot for the first time in at least 3 seasons as they ranked in the single digits every category I track besides INT where they were #17, and time of possession where they checked in at #10.  Can their offense step up to match the defense in the playoffs is the only question – one we have been asking for quite some time now and the resounding answer always seems to be no.  This season they could draw a big break if Houston beats Cincinnati at home Saturday having to face the Schaub-less Texans – really tough to see TJ Yates going into Baltimore’s rowdy loud stadium and come out with a win.  However, if CIN was to beat HOU that would likely set up a third matchup with PIT this year – whom they already beat twice during the regular season.  We all know the saying it’s tough to beat a team three times in one season – that will really be put to the test and would be a great game to watch as a fan.
2. Texans:  the media was very late on the Houston defense, but this model wasn’t.  Houston held the top spot defensively for the entire season starting with their Wk1 pounding of the Manning-less Colts thru the final week of the regular season.  If Houston is to do anything in the playoffs the defense will have to play at an extremely high level.  Similar to BAL in the sense they also only ranked outside the top ten in two categories: INT #13 and conversions allowed #14.
3. Steelers:  third straight AFC team at the top of the defensive rankings is the always solid and steady Pittsburgh Steelers.  This season the pass defense really set the tone as they were ranked #1 in yards per pass attempt, yards passing, and gain per offensive play.  They will certainly be a very tough matchup for the offensively challenged Broncos this Sunday in Denver.
4. Niners:  the surprise team of the season, SF made a lot of progress under first year HC Jim Harbaugh, none more than a defense that was stifling and led SF to their first NFC West division title since 2002.  This year that defense was led by a smothering run defense that ranked #1 or #2 in the 4 rushing stats I track for this system.
5. Jets: last year’s top defense fell 4 spots in 2011 as the Jets had a disappointing season missing the playoffs following back to back AFC Championship game appearances.  The driver behind their fall was the rushing part of the game on both sides of the ball.  Pass defense wise they were still one of the best units in the NFL led by CB Darrelle Revis.

Top Over-Achievers Record wise

1. Cardinals:  Arizona made headlines this summer signing QB Kevin Kolb along with adding stud CB Patrick Peterson in the draft; all that didn’t lead to much of an improvement performance wise as they only rose from #32 to #27 – but still upped their win total by 3 to 8-8.
2. Titans: surprisingly QB Matt Hasselbeck had a fine season for the Titans, but the disappointing year RB Chris Johnson had following his big contract signing led TEN towards the bottom of the league performance wise.  TEN checked in at #25 but won 9 games – for comparison purposes PHI was #5 but only won 8, and a typical team rated #25 is about 5.5-10.5 – you can see why they are #2 on the list of over-achievers this season.
3. Chiefs:  KC was the darling story of 2010 but things soured very quickly in 2011 following a slow start to the season.  HC Todd Haley was canned late in the season, QB Matt Cassel and RB Jamal Charles went down and KC struggled for most of the season.  KC was #24 performance wise but managed to win 7 games.  Last season KC was #6 and went 10-6.

Top Under-Achievers Record wise

1. Eagles:  the Dream Team as they were coined by backup QB Vince Young prior to the season left many Philly fans angry as the 2011 campaign came to an end.  This despite rating #7 in both offense and defense, and a #5 overall rating.  Outside DAL, the other 9 teams in the top 11 all won double digit games – some of their struggles was due to a tough schedule for sure – as that is a common denominator with DAL as well – but clearly the Birds underachieved this season and are looking forward to a fresh start in 2012.  Urgency from the beginning of the season will be critical.
2. Cowboys:  another NFC East team, DAL checks in at #7 in the ratings sandwiched between two playoff teams SF and ATL – but a tough schedule and critical early season losses including a couple blown 4^th quarter leads came back to haunt DAL this season.  Jason Garrett certainly appears to be learning on the job and DAL fans can only hope his decision making improves in 2012.

That will end the first installment of about five we will put together covering the 2011 NFL Regular Season.  Make sure to stop by the website and check out our NFL plays for the Wild Card Round as we have been profitable the last 6 weeks of the regular season, and look to make it 7 straight starting Saturday with a pair of NFL Wild Card matchups.

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