Now that we are about 20 games into the season for each team
let’s take another glance at the NBA SBPI [SportsBoss Power Index]. As a reminder this model uses the Four
Factors analysis as a basis to measure team effectiveness & efficiency in
key statistical areas. New this season I
have added in a solid metric for SOS, along with adjusting the ratings to
better tie into my indices in other sports where higher marks are better scores
(if you look back at last season I used the reverse for the NBA where lower
grades were better). Here is where each
team stands through last night’s action:
Let’s take a closer look at the above ratings, and provide
some color behind a few teams that “stand out” for seemingly rating higher or
lower than expected.
Memphis:
the Grizzlies are tied for the best record in the NBA with the Warriors but
still hold the top spot in the NBA SBPI although he gap between them & the
#2 squad has been closed a great deal due to strong play over last 10+ days by
Spurs & Cavaliers.
Utah: of
the top 15 teams in the SBPI only the Jazz are below .500 checking in at 5-13
SU.
Western
Conference: of the top 17 teams in the above ratings 13 are from the
West, and that does not include Oklahoma City who figure to make a big climb
following the addition of Durant & Westbrook into their lineup.
Philadelphia &
New York: by far these two are the worst teams in the NBA & frankly
we do not see that changing for most of the season.
Next let’s dive into the Power Ratings which use the
Performance Rankings as a base:
|
Team
|
Home PR
|
Away PR
|
|
Memphis
|
117.5
|
113.0
|
|
Golden
State
|
112.2
|
108.2
|
|
San
Antonio
|
115.1
|
111.1
|
|
Toronto
|
114.0
|
110.0
|
|
Portland
|
114.2
|
110.2
|
|
Atlanta
|
109.7
|
105.7
|
|
Dallas
|
113.3
|
109.8
|
|
Washington
|
112.6
|
109.1
|
|
New
Orleans
|
111.1
|
107.6
|
|
Houston
|
111.8
|
108.8
|
|
Milwaukee
|
107.8
|
104.8
|
|
L.A.
Clippers
|
112.8
|
109.8
|
|
Phoenix
|
110.1
|
107.1
|
|
Cleveland
|
114.0
|
111.0
|
|
Denver
|
111.1
|
108.6
|
|
Sacramento
|
112.2
|
109.7
|
|
Miami
|
108.6
|
106.6
|
|
Indiana
|
108.9
|
106.9
|
|
Oklahoma
City
|
105.8
|
103.8
|
|
Brooklyn
|
106.5
|
104.5
|
|
Charlotte
|
107.9
|
105.9
|
|
Utah
|
110.1
|
108.1
|
|
Chicago
|
110.2
|
108.2
|
|
New
York
|
100.4
|
98.4
|
|
Minnesota
|
108.4
|
106.4
|
|
Orlando
|
105.7
|
103.7
|
|
Boston
|
108.6
|
106.6
|
|
Detroit
|
107.6
|
105.6
|
|
L.A.
Lakers
|
109.1
|
107.1
|
|
Philadelphia
|
98.2
|
96.2
|
These are actual Power Ratings that can be used when
handicapping nightly matchups.
Since it remains too early in the season to use performance
and its impact on Pythagorean record we will skip that portion until the
numbers settle in some & they can be used to better forecast. Instead let’s take a look at where each team
stands ATS wise thus far:
|
ATS RECORD
|
|||
|
Team
|
WIN
|
LOSS
|
%
|
|
Milwaukee
|
13
|
6
|
68.4%
|
|
Portland
|
11
|
6
|
64.7%
|
|
Golden
State
|
11
|
6
|
64.7%
|
|
Dallas
|
12
|
7
|
63.2%
|
|
Toronto
|
11
|
7
|
61.1%
|
|
Sacramento
|
11
|
7
|
61.1%
|
|
Indiana
|
10
|
7
|
58.8%
|
|
Memphis
|
10
|
7
|
58.8%
|
|
Phoenix
|
10
|
8
|
55.6%
|
|
Orlando
|
11
|
9
|
55.0%
|
|
L.A.
Lakers
|
9
|
8
|
52.9%
|
|
Oklahoma
City
|
9
|
8
|
52.9%
|
|
Houston
|
9
|
8
|
52.9%
|
|
Utah
|
9
|
9
|
50.0%
|
|
Miami
|
8
|
8
|
50.0%
|
|
New
Orleans
|
8
|
8
|
50.0%
|
|
Atlanta
|
8
|
8
|
50.0%
|
|
San
Antonio
|
8
|
9
|
47.1%
|
|
Philadelphia
|
8
|
9
|
47.1%
|
|
Denver
|
8
|
9
|
47.1%
|
|
Washington
|
7
|
9
|
43.8%
|
|
Cleveland
|
7
|
9
|
43.8%
|
|
Brooklyn
|
7
|
9
|
43.8%
|
|
L.A.
Clippers
|
7
|
10
|
41.2%
|
|
Minnesota
|
6
|
9
|
40.0%
|
|
Boston
|
6
|
9
|
40.0%
|
|
Chicago
|
7
|
11
|
38.9%
|
|
Charlotte
|
6
|
10
|
37.5%
|
|
Detroit
|
5
|
13
|
27.8%
|
|
New
York
|
5
|
14
|
26.3%
|
How good are bookmakers at setting odds? Ten of the thirty teams in the NBA are
currently playing to within one game of .500 in their ATS record & fifteen
(half the league) is within two games of .500.
Thanks for reading.
In the early part of the season I will only be publishing this article
approximately every 10-14 days; as the calendar turns to 2015 and football
winds down we will post this article more frequently.
Email me directly: boss@thesportsboss.com
Visit my website: www.thesportsboss.com
Follow me on Twitter: @SportsBoss
COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2014
No comments:
Post a Comment