Wednesday, February 20, 2013

NCAA Basketball 2012-2013: Power Poll February 18 & PODS Projection for Top Seeds

Two weeks since my last Power Poll was posted and wow, have we seen a lot of excitement and movement amongst the Poll entrants!  This time of year is so exciting as the college basketball season winds down, Spring Training commences, March Madness is around the corner, and The Masters is almost upon us.  But for now, let’s focus on the latest Power Poll – keep in mind you should use this information along with my Projected Field articles to get a solid foundation of how I see these teams, and the potential seeds we will see come Selection Sunday.
Here is the latest PP which includes all action through Sunday February 17 – once again it worked out to a dozen teams as there is a noticeable fall-off in my opinion after these 12:
Current Rank, Team, Record, Last edition’s Rank
#1 Indiana (23-3) [3]: hard to vote against the Hoosier’s at this point in time considering they are leading the country’s toughest conference at the moment.  I have no issues giving them the top spot in the poll as of now, but come early April I would be surprised if they hung onto it and won their first national title since that late 80s Bobby Knight squad led by Keith Smart.
#2 Florida (21-3) [2]: game after game, week after week, the Gators continue stacking up BIG wins.  Nobody in the SEC is even capable of giving them a game besides that one slip up in Fayetteville versus Arkansas.  I look for that to continue, UF locking down a #1 seed, and residing amongst the short list of favorites to cut down the nets.
#3 Michigan State (22-4) [9]: Tom Izzo continues to get more out of a mediocre roster than any coach in the game – and frankly it’s not close.  These Spartans beat you the same way some of Izzo’s best teams did – beat you up physically and mentally – which is why they enjoy so much success in the NCAA Tournament.  This may not be Izzo’s best team – but relatively speaking versus the landscape of college basketball in 2013, watch out as Izzo looks for his 2nd national title this season.
#4 Syracuse (21-4) [6]: the Orange suffered some recently with the loss of 6th man James Southerland, but he is back making this Orange team as dangerous as any in the country.  What they lack in experience they make up for with dynamic athletes, great size, and possibly the best PG in the country Michael Carter-Williams.  All of those attributes, combined with Boeheim’s zone make the Orange an extremely tough out come March.
#5 Michigan (22-4) [1]: UM has fallen 4 spots this week but this Poll is about talent, and how good I believe teams to truly be, along with taking into account performance to date (but to a lesser extent).  These Wolverines can win it all come April and it starts and ends with the best backcourt in the nation featuring PG Trey Burke & SG Tim Hardaway Jr.  With those two leading the way anything is possible because as the old adage goes, guard play wins titles – and nobody is better stacked there than Michigan.
#6 Miami, FL (21-3) [12]: the Canes only at #6, are you kidding me?  Like I mentioned above this Poll weights how talented and good a team I perceive you to be (~75%) with what you have accomplished to date (25%), and based on those factors Miami, FL sits at #6.  Their backcourt rivals Michigan for best in the country, but I have concerns about their coaching, and frontline play.  They can also struggle to score for long periods of time, see last game @ Clemson for an example.  I do not feel that Miami, FL will reach the Final Four although they are talented and have potential to do just that – hey, prove me wrong fellas!
#7 Louisville (21-5) [5]: the Cardinals went through their top spot of the season, losing 4 of 7 conference games – and granted they may not be out of that funk just yet as wins over St John’s and USF hardly bring cries of a national powerhouse back to Ville – but this is probably the best defensive team in the country, with a solid PG who seems to play better as the lights get brighter, and they have the experience of last year to draw upon.  Oh, and they also have Slick Rick Pitino on their sidelines.  The Cardinals will be heard from – and a nightmare matchup for many of the teams rated above them who do not play strong defense in the half court.
#8 Duke (22-3) [10]: Coach K’s boys are back in the top ten, but are a full 3.5 games behind ACC leader Miami in the conference standings.  Wow, soak that one in for a minute – Miami has a three and a half game lead on solo 2nd place Duke!  That is impressive – but a reason I have discounted that some for Miami is the weakness that is the bottom half of the ACC – and even the top teams are not as strong in my opinion as their rankings or name suggest.  The status of F Ryan Kelly will play a big role in how far Duke can advance this season – keep in mind the Blue Devils lost in their NCAAT opener last season to Lehigh.
#9 Georgetown (19-4) [NR]: there probably isn’t a team in the country that gets less press and fanfare that has a legitimate shot at cutting down the nets than GTown.  The Hoyas have been creeping along mostly under the radar for much of the season – they currently sit in 2nd place in the Big East – and they also have that OT loss to #1 Indiana on Nov. 20 in their memory bank.  With JT3’s disciplined style of play, star F Otto Porter, and an aggressive defense, I look for the Hoyas to at least return to the Sweet 16.
#10 Kansas (21-4) [4]: the Jayhawks drop 6 spots to #10 in 2 weeks following 3 straight losses in conference play – the first time they have done that in quite some time.  There is a lot to like about these Jayhawks, but there are also many red flags, especially the youth of their rotation.  G Ben McLemore is one of the best players in college basketball, some say a potential #1 pick in the NBA Draft, while C Jeff Withey is a dominant presence in the paint – a very solid duo, one that isn’t matched in college basketball.  With the right draw, and KU peaking at the right time, I see this edition of the Jayhawks as potential Elite 8 material, but no more.
#11 Arizona (21-4) [7]: UA may be the best team on the West Coast, but how good are they really?  Are they as good as they showed when they beat the Gators in Tucson earlier this year?  Or are they the team that routinely struggles in P12 play, especially on the road?  I feel they are somewhere in between – and are more likely to lose in Sweet 16 or earlier than reach the Final Four – even if they pulled the #1 seed out West.  But make no mistake about it, HC Sean Miller is building quite a program out there, reminiscent of Lute Olsen’s squads – and these Cats are not going away anytime soon.
#12 Gonzaga (25-2) [11]: if Arizona isn’t the best team out West the Zags certainly are.  Gonzaga has blown through WCC play undefeated to this point, but keep in mind both St. Mary’s & BYU are down a notch from where they were last season.  What really bolsters the Zaga profile is their success in OOC play vs. the Big 12 where they beat like half the conference (WVU, Oklahoma, Kansas State, Baylor & Oklahoma State) – and the last four are at worst bubble teams, at best dancing.  Their only losses on the year were at home to Illinois (how did that happen?), and @ Butler on a buzzer beater.  For some reason these Zags don’t seem to have the same national recognition as past editions, but those prior teams never reached this high in the polls.
Next Eight (in alphabetical order): Colorado State (21-4) [NR], Kansas State (16-4) [N8], Marquette (18-6) [NR], Memphis (22-3) [NR], New Mexico (22-4) [N8], Oklahoma State (19-5) [NR], Pittsburgh (20-6) [NR], UNLV (18-7) [N8]
Dropped out of Power Poll
#8 Ohio State


Adding to my Power Poll this week let’s examine the sites for this season’s NCAA Tournament games, and breakdown which teams are targeting certain cities for their first & second round games (I know it’s technically second & third round games but calling those four play-in games the first round is silly).  Remember, the first four seeds in each region are eligible to be placed in a “pod” that is closest to their campus, but no teams can play on their true home-court.
Auburn Hills, MI: Indiana & Michigan State
Lexington, KY: Louisville & Florida
Salt Lake City, UT: Gonzaga & New Mexico
San Jose, CA: Arizona & UNLV
Dayton, OH: Pittsburgh & Georgetown
Austin, TX: Oklahoma State & Miami, FL
Kansas City, MO: Kansas & Kansas State
Philadelphia, PA: Duke & Syracuse

Those are just estimates at this point in time, but that can certainly give you a good feel for which teams are in line to be seeded close to home, and which cities some of the higher rated teams may play in come March 21-24.  There are still 3 weeks of regular season plus conference tournament week to play out before any seeds are set in stone – hence, these can & will change – but can be used as a guide for now.  There are some situations where mileage wise teams are closer to one site but were moved because the difference wasn’t huge, and it enabled another team to play closer to home (such as moving Indiana to Auburn Hills instead of the closer city Lexington, which in turn enables Louisville & Florida to play closer to home).  Another issue arises with Miami, FL because there is no site close to their campus – the closest is Lexington but I feel Florida for certain, and either Louisville or Indiana will take those two spots before Miami, FL does – which means Miami, FL will likely play in Austin or possibly Philadelphia.  Lastly, there are a few teams such as UNLV & Kansas State that may not get consideration to play in a pod close to their campus, but to fill spots at this point in time I have them in as a place-holder.  In the KC pod its likely a second Big 12 team would fill that spot, while the San Jose & Salt Lake City pods are very much undecided although Arizona & Gonzaga will wind up in either city, with the other two spots likely filled by the MWC champion and possibly a team travelling from the East such as Miami, FL or potentially even a Big East team.


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