Today we are going to preview the Western Conference (WC) of the NHL following our entry last week that projected the Eastern. Personally I feel the WC has more parity within the divisions as I would say just one team in the entire conference (Columbus) does not have a legitimate chance to reach the playoffs; the Eastern Conference in comparison is perhaps not as deep 1-15, but I feel the top of the conference has better balanced, more well-rounded clubs. With that in mind let’s jump into the season forecast for the WC, keeping in mind there is probably more chances the order I project below could wind up with different results due to the parity, and depth within.
Western Conference
Central Division
- *Chicago Blackhawks: last season the Blackhawks definitely suffered from a Stanley Cup hangover. Of note however was an injury list that was seemingly ever-growing and full of impact players for much of the season. This year there has been no issues so far, as they currently sit at 10-0-2, leading the NHL in points & remain the last unbeaten squad in the league. One of the biggest keys to this season besides hopefully less games lost by their stars to injuries will be the goaltending duo of Crawford & Emery. Last season CHI was 13th in the WC allowing 238 goals (only EDM 239 & COLB 262 showing worse in that category). In the early portion of this season their GAA has improved dramatically, only yielding 25 goals thru 12 games (2.08 GAA), good for 2nd in the WC. I am extremely bullish on the Hawks this season, and anything less than a WC championship will be viewed by many including myself as underachieving – even with top notch WC clubs such as STL, VAN, SJ, LA.
- *St. Louis Blues: the Blues were perhaps the biggest surprise of the ’11-’12 season compiling 109 points, their best mark since the ’99-’00 season when they reached 114 points, securing the President’s Trophy. But like that season, when they lost in the opening round, the Blues were not able to advance to even the WC Finals, getting swept by the eventual Stanley Cup Champion LA Kings in the WC SF round. The Blues have not reached the Conference Finals since ’00-’01, which was their only appearance since ’86-’87. Taking that next step will be especially tough coming out of a Central Division that features 4 teams with a legitimate goal of winning the West – keep in mind that in the ’11-’12 season four teams finished with 102+ points (excluding COLB). What’s of concern record wise is their splits that include a 14-2-2 mark vs. the EC (remember no games this year will be played across conferences) – that was the top inter-conference record in the league; even bigger perhaps is their 10-9-5 record vs. fellow Central Division foes – those 25 points were only better than Columbus’ 12 points in divisional action. Besides improving their play vs. the division, another area of focus has to be scoring goals, as they were just 7th of the 8 WC playoff teams last year netting 210 goals on the season. Of their key transactions this offseason 7 of 9 signings/re-signings were offensive – a good start. We should expect their goaltending to come back to earth some this season, but hopefully the Blues can score goals a little more consistently, which could mean more success come April & May – and playing hockey then is no guarantee in this division.
- *Detroit Red Wings: another season is upon us and once again the Red Wings are in the mix for hoisting Lord Stanley’s Cup – let’s keep in mind they have now reached the playoffs in 21 straight seasons! DET has been an unreal model of consistency – they have NOT finished with less than 100 points in a regular season since the ’98-’99 season! That is TWELVE straight seasons posting 102+ points – amazingly, last year’s 102 points was tied for their worst mark over those dozen years! But the Wings goals are all about the playoffs & winning playoff series – last year’s first round exit to NASH was a big disappointment for this team & their fans. That first round exit was their first since ’05-’06, but what’s more concerning for them is the fact they have not won the Cup in four years, and have not won the WC in three. In order to take those steps this year their first order of business has to be better focus & performance on the road – last year they posted an under .500 mark, the only sub .500 team to reach the playoffs in the WC (FLO did so in the EC). If they could have simply reached .500 that would have improved their seed, and possibly the outcome in the playoffs. But when analyzing their season as a whole, setting aside the issues on the road, they played fabulous hockey and could have easily wound up winning the championship with a few more bounces going their way – their +45 goal differential was tied with STL for 2nd best in the WC (only trailing VAN who certainly got a boost in theirs based on their weaker division). This is a veteran team with a small infusion of youth in certain spots – the shortened, packed season could impact their regular season mark – but this team is all about June, and they will make noise come April & May this season.
- *Nashville Predators: last year the Preds posted their 3rd consecutive season of 99+ points, and for the 2nd year in a row won their opening round series, but fell in the SF round. That loss to PHO last year stung more than the 2011 loss to WC favorite VAN – it was really all there for the taking, a WC Finals appearance with a trip to the Stanley Cup Final on the line. But these Predators are chalking it up to a learning experience, something they can build upon during the 2013 campaign. They could enjoy a boost in 2013 regular season performance considering they posted the 2nd best mark vs. the WC: their 85 intra-division points trailed only VAN (88) in the West & NYR (87) in the East. Especially of note was their 16-5-3 record vs. their division rivals; those 35 points’ only trailed BOS (39) & VAN (37) in divisional performance. Based on that information they may enjoy a bump in points compared to their competition, especially within the division if they can continue performing at such a high level in their most important games (so far this season however they are just 1-2-2 vs. the Central, one of the bigger reasons they currently reside in 3rd place). Their PP unit was strong last year scoring 54 goals, only bettered by VAN, SJ, PHI & PIT. This offseason the Preds lost their top defenseman Ryan Suter who signed with MIN; he will be replaced by the very talented 22 year old Roman Josi, whom NASH has high hopes for. So long as G Pekka Rinne is between the pipes for NASH they should remain in the mix – but they will need some of their younger players to step up & make an impact if they are going to take that next step and reach the WC Finals this season.
- Columbus Blue Jackets: poor Columbus. They are stuck in one of the toughest and deepest divisions in hockey which has led to a 4th or 5th place finish in 10 of their 11 seasons (that one other season they finished 3rd). They have only reached the playoffs once, in ’08-’09, and were promptly swept by division foe DET. Besides that season where they posted 92 points they have not finished with 82+ points in any season – and last year’s 65 points was their worst since the season before the lock-out. With all that in mind what direction can COLB move in to improve their team, franchise, and chances at success? This offseason they made a big move by trading LW Rick Nash to the NY Rangers in exchange for C Brandon Dubinsky, C Artem Anisimov, D Tim Erixon & a 1st round draft pick – a solid haul for their best player. The players they received back for their franchise player are solid, young guys who can certainly play in the NHL, and add depth to their roster. There flat out weren’t many things that went well for the Jackets last season as they posted the lowest points total in the NHL by NINE POINTS, and had a miserable goal differential of (60), also dead last in the league. Obviously based on that their goals scored & against won’t be good – last season only 2 WC teams scored less than the 202 goals COLB posted (MIN 177 & LA 194); defensively they yielded a whopping 262, which were 23 more than the 2nd worst WC team EDM. It’s going to be a long, uphill battle for the Blue Jackets to get back to respectability – hopefully the trade of Nash and the assets acquired can help this team improve its on ice play.
Northwest Division
- *Vancouver Canucks: the Canucks have won the President’s Cup in each of the last two seasons, posting 117 points two years ago & 111 points last season. However, they have not hoisted the Stanley Cup in either season – matter of fact, VAN is still looking to win its first Stanley Cup since their inaugural ’70-’71 season. The franchise has reached the Finals three times – their first was in 1982 vs. the Islanders dynasty (lost 4-0), the second & third times they lost in a grueling 7 game series. What really doesn’t sit well with this team heading into the 2013 campaign is the 4-1 opening round loss to eventual Stanley Cup LA last season – that was their first opening round loss since the lockout of ’04-’05. Coming off four straight Northwest Division crowns the Canucks only have one goal this season – to finally win the Stanley Cup, and they will no question be heavily involved in that process. What really helps them off the bat versus their main top flight WC competition is their division – the NW is EASILY the weakest in the WC, and rivals the SE as the worst in hockey – that will allow them to boost their point totals – see the last two seasons winning the President’s Cup. The biggest, consistent concern with the Canucks recently remains goaltending, which will once again either make or break their season come playoff time. Roberto Luongo he consistently been one of the better regular season goaltenders in all of hockey – but when the calendar flips to April/May/June he no question struggles, especially considering that playoff hockey typically has LESS scoring. Last year he posted a 2.41GAA in RS, while in playoffs he had a 3.59GAA; ’10-’11 2.11/2.56; ’09-’10 2.57/3.23; ’08-’09 2.34/2.52; ’07-’08 he missed postseason. The numbers are right there, showing his performance in the playoffs does not equal that of a Stanley Cup winning goalie. The Canucks will always have the offense to do big things – can the defense and goaltending match that level is what will determine when they are ready to take that next step and hoist the Cup – it could be this year, next year, or perhaps not at all with Luongo between the pipes, the NHL is fickle like that.
- Colorado Avalanche: after moving from Quebec following the ’94-’95 season, the new team in the WC made a lot of noise up until the lock-out of 2004-2005. They reached the playoffs in all 9 seasons, only lost in the first round twice, and won the Stanley Cup twice in 1996 & 2001. Following the lock-out however has been a much different story for this once proud franchise – the Avs have only reached the playoffs in 3 of 7 seasons, have won their first round series on two of those three occasions, but has not even won a game in the SF round since the spring of 2004! More recently the Avs have missed the playoffs in 3 of 4 seasons, and have not won a playoff series since 2008 – how are they planning on changing that come 2013? Better play in their division is a must coming off an 8-14-2 mark vs. the NW – only COLB won less than 8 games vs. their division in the NHL last year. Overall COLO must improve vs. their WC opponents – last year they were a solid 13-4-1 vs. the East – games that will not be on the schedule this season making their battle all the tougher in 2013. As far as their roster is concerned they certainly have a lot of interesting, young pieces – but it seems they have been waiting for years to see these guys blossom, and it just is not happening to this point. This offseason they added or resigned many pieces including RW Hejduk, C Duchene, RW Parenteau, C Mitchell and LW McGinn – those players represent many of the top scorers to this point in the season for the Avs. The biggest key in 2013 will be the play of G Semyon Varlamov, the young Russian net minder. His statistics were not overly impressive last year, but the hope is he can continue improving since he is only 24 years old. Simply put COLO has some very nice pieces on the front line, but still has issues along the blue line and in net. Because of those two concerns it’s hard to envision them making a significant jump up in the WC – but in this division anything is possible, especially in a shortened season where the Avs may enjoy a slight advantage with all their youth.
- Minnesota Wild: no team made a bigger splash this offseason than the Wild, headlined by the signings of LW Zach Parise from the Devils & D Ryan Suter from the Predators, both agreeing to terms on 13yr/$98M deals. The Wild badly needed to make some moves & spend some money – they have not reached the playoffs since the ’07-’08 season, and they have not won a series since advancing to the WC Finals in 2003. In their 11 seasons since inception of the franchise they have only won the division once, and finished 2nd once – in the current weakened state of the NW Division now is the time to try and make a move – and I believe they have done so, but well behind the leader VAN. Of late their biggest issue has been scoring goals – last year they only netted 177 (barely over 2 per game), and were one of just two teams that didn’t reach the 200 goal mark (LA 194). In an attempt to patch that up they brought in Parise, but not much else was done personnel wise – the hopes are some of the younger guys such as Koivu, Heatley, Granlund, Cullen & a fully healthy Bouchard continue their upward trajectory. Their PP unit didn’t contribute much to the cause last season finishing with just 39 PP goals, 3rd worst in the NHL. It will be a slow process for the Wild to creep back towards a playoff berth, but there are some nice pieces that could get the job done sooner than later.
- Calgary Flames: the Flames finished in 2nd place last season and should have playoff goals in mind heading into 2013, something they have not accomplished in each of the last three seasons. Matter of fact, since advancing to the SC Finals in 2004 (losing in 7 games to TB) CAL has not won a playoff series, losing four times in the opening round followed by a season of not earning a spot. What’s amazing for Calgary is they have only won a playoff series TWICE since ’88-’89 – that year they won the Cup, and then in 2004 they lost the Cup – every other season between & since they did not even win one playoff series! They should enjoy a contract season performance from C Jarome Iginla, one of the better players in the WC, and are now being led by new HC Bob Hartley. Hartley has not been a head man in the NHL since 2008, which was his fifth and final season with ATL. Prior to that stop he had a lot of success in five years leading the Avalanche including winning the Cup in 2001, and finishing in first place in this very division each season. Last year the Flames enjoyed a very strong record vs. the NW, which should only be strengthened with the addition of Hartley. Goaltending will be the biggest issue facing the Flames this season, and a big reason why I have them finishing fourth in the division.
- Edmonton Oilers: the last three seasons have been among the worst stretch in Oilers history. A once proud, leader of the NHL has fallen on tough times for the better part of the last two decades. Of course there was the run to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2006 (which was one of the most exciting runs by any team in recent memory if you recall many of those games), but that ended in heartbreak losing to the Hurricanes in 7. But outside that, since the ’92-’93 season, the Oilers have missed the playoffs 12 times (including the last 6 since the Finals appearance), were beat in the opening round 4 times, were beat in the SF round twice, and lost in the Finals. Nineteen seasons and only one appearance in the WC or SC Finals. Last season the Oilers were the 2nd worst in hockey (thanks COLB), accumulating just 74 points, and finishing last in the NW for the 3rd straight season. How can EDM turn this around? Well a new HC was appointed in late June, Ralph Krueger – his promotion with the Oilers comes with ZERO playing or coaching experience in the NHL besides his Associate Head Coach role here since 2010. I am not a huge fan of this hire, but hopefully those closest to the situation like GM Steve Tambellini made the right decision. His first order of business has to be defense & goaltending – last year his new team yielded 239 goals, which was 2nd worst in the WC. To help secure the blue line they signed 3 defensemen, the biggest of which was Justin Schultz who was one of the top D in the AHL last season and will be slid right into the top pairing. They have some depth on the backline, but still may be lacking that star power to really lock up their opponents. The goaltending situation was not addressed in the offseason, leaving the job to young Devan Dubnyk. Dubnyk struggled last season but has started the 2013 campaign decent posting a 2.45GAA in his 11 games. As mentioned above outside VAN this division is wide open and any of the other four teams could finish in 2nd place – right now I feel the Oilers are the worst of the four teams, but there will not be a big point differential between 2nd and 5th.
Pacific Division
- *San Jose Sharks: this division is very top heavy, with SJ, ANA & LA all with a legitimate opportunity to win it, and advance deep into the playoffs. I am going with the Sharks to win it as I feel they have the best combination of hunger & talent amongst the three clubs. Last year was a “down” season for the Sharks, posting “just” 96 points – that was their lowest point total since the pre lock-out ’02-’03 season. It was also just the second time since missing the playoffs in 2003 they lost their opening round series – last time that occurred was 2009, and the following season they advanced to the WC Finals before losing to eventual SC Champion CHI (SJ has advanced to the WC Finals in 2 of the last 3 seasons losing both times; they are still seeking their first SC Finals appearance as a franchise that dates back to the ’91-’92 season). SJ last year finished just 1pt behind division winner PHO, and also just 1pt ahead of 3rd place LA – and that was driven by them only accumulating 25pts in divisional play, while PHO had 31 and LA 33. Divisional play will be ultra-important in 2013, especially also considering SJ posted a 12-5-1 record vs. the EC, which will not be involved this season. An area of focus heading into this season needs to be their PK unit, which cost them dearly not only in the regular season, but also in the playoffs. SJ only killed off 76.9% of their opponents man advantages, which ranked 2nd to last in the NHL only behind COLB. It’s a shame too because their PP unit scored on 21.1% of their advantages, which ranked 2nd in the NHL only behind NASH. To try and solve some of their PK woes they brought in a pair of associate coaches known for their acumen in that area: Larry Robinson & Jim Johnson. The Sharks suffered from some key injuries last season, and if they can have a relatively healthy season, with the additions on the coaching staff, and the return of D Brad Stuart, there is no reason at all that SJ shouldn’t set their only goal to winning the Cup at last.
- *Anaheim Ducks: since the Ducks peaked in the summer of 2007 winning the Stanley Cup they have been relatively uninspiring, not winning any divisional crowns & only winning one playoff series. Last year they bottomed out literally, finishing in last place for the first time since 2002. What has changed this season for the Ducks to compete in a top heavy Pacific? First off they will have a full season of HC Bruce Boudreau as their leader. Second, two of their key pieces Corey Perry & Ryan Getzlaf will be free agents this summer, and typically that means great play as they will try to impress all the GM’s around the league. Defensively, in addition to adding a few pieces via free agency like Sheldon Souray, two of their better defensemen Lydman & Beauchemin are 100% after being injured for most of last season. They also need improved performance between the pipes and will look to Viktor Fasth to provide such play. All said, the personnel is in place, the head coaching will be a constant for the entire season, and the desperation is certainly on the minds of these Ducks – it should all equal a solid season and a playoff berth come April.
- *Los Angeles Kings: the defending Cup champions came out of nowhere, literally, to secure the franchise’s first championship since its inception in the late 60’s. Going into last season LA had missed the playoffs in 6 of the last 8 seasons (made it the last two), and had not even won a single playoff series since the Wayne Gretzky led Kings lost in the SC Finals to the Canadiens in 1993! Talk about a surge out of nowhere! The Kings were the #8 seed last season and blew through all their WC opponents only losing 2 games in 3 series, including beating the #1, #2 & #3 seeds in the process before dispatching the Devils in 6 games. Statistically speaking the Kings were not much to write home about prior to their playoff run: they only scored 194 goals which was 2nd worst in the conference, but defense was their calling card and 179 goals allowed was 2nd best in the conference. The key to their late surge and locking up the #8 and final seed was a strong record vs. Pacific Division opponents: 13-4-7. Another key was the HC change made in December, bringing in Darryl Sutter to lead the team – the Kings clearly responded to his presence. Last big point was G Jonathan Quick, who was the playoffs MVP – there is no reason to believe he will not continue to improve, which is a scary thought for the rest of the NHL. So with all those positives why do I have the Kings only finishing in 3rd place, again barely sneaking into the playoffs? Well, although they are the defending champs you must examine the entire body of work – and it wasn’t all that great to be frank. Credit them for getting hot at the right time, blowing through the playoffs at 16-4 and hoisting their first Stanley Cup – but now that only revives the hopes of their California brethren SJ & ANA. It will be tough for the Kings to bottle that magic this regular season, getting everyone’s best shot – I see them playing well enough to join the brackets once again come April, and at that point anything is possible – but I feel especially SJ is better positioned to make some noise this year.
- Phoenix Coyotes: last year’s division winner falling to fourth place? As mentioned above the line was fine between first and fourth, and the Coyotes are the least talented of the foursome in my opinion, hence a fourth place projected finish. Last year was the first playoff series wins for the franchise that moved in ’96-’97 from Winnipeg. It was also their first division title, so the question is how will PHO handle their newfound success? Last year their 7-1-2 finish over their last ten games helped secure the #3 seed and divisional crown – but going into that stretch run they were very much “in the pack” with the teams listed above them for the title. G Mike Smith was a big part of that late season & playoff run, playing the best hockey of his career – how will that carry over to the 2013 campaign for a soon to be 31 year old goalie that was released just before last season began? Defensively the team is relatively strong, but scoring goals was a weakness last season and could be worse this year after losing their top forward Ray Whitney to Dallas. There was also a significant amount of turnover via the free agency route, especially for a team that was coming off a division title: there are 5 new faces on offense and 2 on defense, while the team lost 6 offensive players including 4 C’s and 2 defensemen. Taking that all into consideration I feel although PHO will be involved in the playoff chase till late, unlike last season they will fall off at the wrong time and wind up missing out.
- Dallas Stars: it’s been a rough patch of late for DAL as they have now missed the playoffs in 4 straight seasons after making it 10 of the prior 11 seasons, and 12 of 14 since moving to Dallas. Last year it was a very narrow divide between division winner PHO at 97pts & 4th place DAL at 89pts – especially considering an 82 game season, a few bounces of the puck here and there we could be discussing DAL as the defending Pacific Division champs. But we aren’t so let’s examine areas they struggled in, and what they did to improve this offseason. Nothing stands out in their record splits, as there is a pretty solid distribution vs. all divisions, conferences, and even home/away. But statistically one area stands out like a big, huge, sore thumb and that was their PP – the unit only cashed on 13.5% of their chances, only 33 goals, both of which were the lowest marks in the NHL. They did add C Jaromir Jagr in hopes he could add some juice to the PP unit – but JJ is now over 40 years old, which seems to be an issue with the Stars – many of their key players are over the hill so to say, which is not a good recipe when veteran teams are struggling to reach the playoffs. Truthfully there is not a whole lot to get excited about for DAL either today or the near future – it’s kind of an aging roster that has been struggling to win games. They need to start infusing some youth into the lineup, let them take their lumps for a year or two, and hope they come out the better for it down the line. It’s tough for me to see this Stars team, in this division, competing for a playoff spot.
Playoff Seed Projections
#1 Vancouver Canucks
#2 Chicago Blackhawks
#3 San Jose Sharks
#4 St. Louis Blues
#5 Detroit Red Wings
#6 Anaheim Ducks
#7 Los Angeles Kings
#8 Nashville Predators
Semifinal Round
#1 Vancouver Canucks vs. #5 Detroit Red Wings
#2 Chicago Blackhawks vs. #3 San Jose Sharks
Western Conference Final
#1 Vancouver Canucks vs. #3 San Jose Sharks
Western Conference Champion: Vancouver Canucks (Stanley Cup Champions)
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