Here is my second article where I actually project the FIELD OF 68 using my weekly report of each conference that gets posted here. As the days turn into weeks, the ability to accurately project the field becomes increasingly easier as many teams play themselves right out of the discussion – which we have seen a lot recently. So, without any further delay, here is how I see the current field shaping up:
AUTOMATIC BIDS (31)
Stony Brook
St. Louis [replaces Butler from last version]
Miami, Fla
Florida Gulf Coast
Kansas
Louisville
Montana
Charleston Southern [replaces UNC-Asheville from last version]
Indiana
Long Beach State
Northeastern
Memphis
Valparaiso
Harvard
Canisius
Akron
Savannah State [replaces North Carolina Central from last version]
Creighton
New Mexico
Bryant
Belmont
Arizona
Bucknell
Florida
Davidson
Stephen F. Austin
Southern
South Dakota State
Middle Tennessee State
Gonzaga
Louisiana Tech
NEAR LOCKS FOR AT-LARGE BIDS (22) – some are a LOCK to be dancing, and the remaining are close to LOCK status – but its 2/27, meaning there are still 1.5 weeks of regular season action, so teams need to continue winning games – no reason to think they will not hence why they show up in this category. Number in brackets is change from last version published on 2/11, and also as far as seeding goes – teams are listed within their conference in the order we envision their seeds to be (meaning we currently project Butler to have a higher seed than VCU, etc…).
A10: Butler, VCU [+1]
ACC: Duke, North Carolina, NC State [+1]
B12: Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma [+1]
BE: Syracuse, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh [-1]
B10: Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Minnesota [+1]
MVC: Wichita State [-]
MWC: UNLV, Colorado State [-]
SEC: Missouri [-1]
BUBBLE TEAMS THAT RIGHT NOW ARE IN THE FIELD (15) – most of these teams will wind up in the NCAA Tournament come Selection Sunday, but none of them have signed, sealed & delivered their spot as of yet. As the days & weeks continue to pass expect many of these teams to move up to the next category as they continue bolstering their resumes; while others will fall off & miss the dance.
A10: Temple, LaSalle
B12: Iowa State
BE: Cincinnati, Villanova
B10: Illinois
CUSA: Southern Mississippi
MWC: San Diego State, Boise State
P12: UCLA, Oregon, California, Colorado
SEC: Kentucky
WCC: St. Mary’s
CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN # OF TEAMS IN THE FIELD (only showing multiple bid conferences)
A10: 5
ACC: 4
B12: 5
BE: 8
B10: 7
CUSA: 2
MVC: 2
MWC: 5
P12: 5
SEC: 3
WCC: 2
LAST EIGHT IN THE FIELD – my last six bids were tough to decide on so that is why I chose six. Shown in order below, the last team listed earned the final bid as of today
68. Southern Mississippi
67. Boise State
66. LaSalle
65. St. Mary’s
64. Kentucky
63. Colorado
62. California
61. Temple
FIRST EIGHT OUT OF THE FIELD – all teams are listed in order with #69 being the “next up” should a team above them falter. #69-#72 is the “First Four Out” & #73-#76 is the “Next Four Out” in regards to many analyses you will read on other sites forecasting the tournament.
# Team Record vs. Top 25/50/100 RPI Road/Neutral Best RPI Win BPI
69. Virginia [#69] 3-2/3-2/6-2 3-7 21 NORTH CAROLINA #43
70. Tennessee [#52] 1-2/3-4/8-9 5-7 FLORIDA #55
71. Maryland [#67] 2-3/2-4/3-7 3-6 1DUKE #49
72. Baylor [#64] 0-5/2-7/4-9 5-7 29 OKLAHOMA STATE #46
73. Ole Miss [#58] 0-1/1-4/4-6 6-6 41 MISSOURI #42
74. Indiana State [#59] 1-1/3-5/6-5 6-9 2 MIAMI #77
75. Alabama [#63] 0-0/1-3/7-5 6-6 46 KENTUCKY #66
76. Charlotte [#57] 0-1/2-5/6-7 7-6 31 BUTLER #95
As things currently stand I feel Virginia is the team “next up” to earn a bid if any of the above, namely Southern Mississippi first, should falter. Even though at the moment these 8 teams are listed as the first ones missing the tournament we will see “bid stealing” situations where teams that were not going to receive an at-large bid win their conference’s postseason tournament, and force the regular season champion into the at-large field – this can happen at both the major and low to mid-major conference levels. At the major conferences, for example, if Iowa was to win the Big Ten Tournament, they would steal a bid from the at-large pool since they are not under consideration – which would mean, as we currently see things, Southern Mississippi would be left out of the tournament if that was to happen. We can also see that at the low to mid-major level, although there are fewer teams at that level who have a strong enough resume to earn an at-large should they falter in their conference’s postseason tournament. But one example of this could be if Santa Clara was to win the WCC Tournament – the Broncos were not under consideration from an at-large perspective, and thus their win would push Gonzaga into the at-large pool, forcing a team out that would have previously earned a bid. What it all means is the last four teams listed as currently “in”, #65-#68 above, could miss out on receiving a bid because it’s likely we will see somewhere in the range of 3-5 “bid stealers” once Championship Week begins. All teams listed numerically really need to continue winning games and bolstering their resume for Selection Sunday!
It will be a lot of fun down the stretch as it always is – and hopefully your favorite team can either sneak in the field via the at-large route if they currently are not under consideration, or can hang on to their spot in the dance if they are currently on the proverbial “bubble”.
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