Two weeks of NFL action is in the books, and we now are starting to get a much better feel for each team as in one game pretty much anything can happen – but as we start getting 2/3/4 games into the season, the true value of teams begins arising, and we can perform much better analysis on true performance.
Performance Ratings (max grade is 160, 80 on offense and 80 on defense, calculated using 16 different stats with 5 points per stat being the best score = 16x5 = 80). Also of note, a few stats such as TOM & INT do not have ½ pt values, so a game may not sum to exactly 160.
OFFENSE
|
DEFENSE
|
TOTAL TEAM
| ||||||
Rating
|
Rank
|
Rating
|
Rank
|
Rating
|
Rank
| |||
HOU
|
50.5
|
5
|
59.8
|
1
|
110.3
|
1
| ||
PHI
|
49.5
|
6
|
59.0
|
2
|
108.5
|
2
| ||
NE
|
55.8
|
2
|
47.8
|
6
|
103.5
|
3
| ||
SD
|
48.5
|
8
|
53.0
|
3
|
101.5
|
4
| ||
SF
|
53.0
|
3
|
46.5
|
8
|
99.5
|
5
| ||
DEN
|
45.8
|
14
|
47.8
|
6
|
93.5
|
6
| ||
SEA
|
38.3
|
22
|
49.0
|
4
|
87.3
|
7
| ||
DAL
|
46.8
|
12
|
39.3
|
12
|
86.0
|
8
| ||
WAS
|
56.5
|
1
|
29.5
|
26
|
86.0
|
8
| ||
MIA
|
39.3
|
21
|
46.3
|
9
|
85.5
|
10
| ||
GB
|
37.0
|
24
|
48.3
|
5
|
85.3
|
11
| ||
BAL
|
48.5
|
8
|
34.3
|
18
|
82.8
|
12
| ||
ATL
|
48.8
|
7
|
33.8
|
20
|
82.5
|
13
| ||
MIN
|
43.8
|
15
|
38.0
|
16
|
81.8
|
14
| ||
BUF
|
52.8
|
4
|
27.0
|
28
|
79.8
|
15
| ||
CHI
|
33.5
|
26
|
46.3
|
9
|
79.8
|
15
| ||
CAR
|
47.0
|
11
|
32.3
|
22
|
79.3
|
17
| ||
NYG
|
42.0
|
17
|
36.5
|
17
|
78.5
|
18
| ||
PIT
|
39.8
|
19
|
38.8
|
14
|
78.5
|
18
| ||
STL
|
47.8
|
10
|
30.3
|
24
|
78.0
|
20
| ||
DET
|
37.5
|
23
|
38.8
|
14
|
76.3
|
21
| ||
TB
|
35.0
|
25
|
39.3
|
12
|
74.3
|
22
| ||
ARI
|
27.8
|
31
|
46.3
|
9
|
74.0
|
23
| ||
KC
|
46.8
|
12
|
27.0
|
28
|
73.8
|
24
| ||
NYJ
|
41.8
|
18
|
30.3
|
24
|
72.0
|
25
| ||
CLE
|
32.3
|
27
|
32.3
|
22
|
64.5
|
26
| ||
IND
|
31.8
|
28
|
32.8
|
21
|
64.5
|
26
| ||
OAK
|
29.3
|
30
|
34.0
|
19
|
63.3
|
28
| ||
CIN
|
39.5
|
20
|
23.3
|
30
|
62.8
|
29
| ||
NO
|
42.3
|
16
|
19.3
|
31
|
61.5
|
30
| ||
JAC
|
31.3
|
29
|
28.0
|
27
|
59.3
|
31
| ||
TEN
|
25.0
|
32
|
17.3
|
32
|
42.3
|
32
| ||
Thru two weeks the Texans are back where I expect them to be for most of the season, in the top spot. As mentioned in past editions, last season before the injury to QB Matt Schaub, HOU was playing the best ball LY of any team over the last five years since I started running this model – they still finished the season #1, and after a one week hiatus are back atop the ratings. PHI checks in at #2, a one spot decline from last week on the heels of another narrow 1 point win. Despite the Patriots losing at home to the Cardinals they rise up to #3, as their true performance in that game yielded a grade of 91.5 – easily outplaying the Cardinals, but losing the game nevertheless. The Patriots are the only team in the Top 5 that is not 2-0. SD & SF moved to 2-0 and sit at #4 & #5 respectively, while DAL & WAS both lost but remain in the top ten, tied for 8th. DEN is #6 as although they lost in ATL on MNF, my performance ratings showed a slight edge (81-79) to the Broncos statistically – but (4) TOM will almost certainly lead to a loss every time. Of note towards the bottom of the ratings, the Titans are bringing up the rear, as they are playing the worst football of any team right now BY A WIDE MARGIN trailing #31 JAC by 17 grade points per game. But as far as TEN goes, let’s also keep in mind they faced NE & SD thus far through two games. The aforementioned Jaguars are no shock sitting at #31, but #30 NO is definitely a surprise – I was not remotely bullish on the Saints heading into the season, but never imagined they would be performing as the 3rd worst team in the entire NFL thru 2 games against average competition (#8 WAS at home/#17 CAR on road). CIN sits at #29 as they seem to be struggling to find the juice they had LY when they reached the playoffs, as they were outplayed in Wk2 by CLE 89-71 in this analysis, yet picked up the win.
New to the column this week let’s examine a pair of teams that are performing worse than their record indicates – these two teams should be solid fade material in the next couple weeks:
- ATL (2-0, #13 PR) – the Falcons are 2-0, yet only ARI is behind them in the ratings amongst undefeated teams. Their opponents are a combined 1-3, they were outplayed in their last game vs. DEN at home, and are a cool +7 in TOM thru two. Specifically, keep an eye on their defense, that is currently rated #20 in my numbers including 31st vs. the run.
- ARI (2-0, #23 PR) – the Cardinals are definitely prime fade material in the next two weeks for multiple reasons. One, their performance statistically has not been as strong as their record indicates; two, they are coming off a massively emotional win, which took place just about as far as they possibly could travel from ARI; three, their two wins have come by an average of 3pts; and four, they may start getting too much respect from Vegas based on beating NE, and being 9-2 over their last 11 games dating back to LY.
Next up, here are my projected standings after Wk2. As a reminder, this process involves playing out the entire season based on my power ratings for each team. For more information on this topic and process, and to see how accurate this exercise has been in the past, please read this blog entry from July 31.
AFC East
|
Wins
|
Loss
|
NFC East
|
Wins
|
Loss
| |
NE
|
9.19
|
6.81
|
PHI
|
10.21
|
5.79
| |
NYJ
|
8.66
|
7.34
|
DAL
|
8.72
|
7.28
| |
MIA
|
7.82
|
8.18
|
WAS
|
7.95
|
8.05
| |
BUF
|
7.69
|
8.31
|
NYG
|
7.28
|
8.72
| |
AFC North
|
NFC North
| |||||
PIT
|
9.51
|
6.49
|
GB
|
9.58
|
6.42
| |
BAL
|
8.98
|
7.02
|
DET
|
8.51
|
7.49
| |
CIN
|
7.33
|
8.68
|
CHI
|
8.01
|
7.99
| |
CLE
|
4.67
|
11.33
|
MIN
|
6.55
|
9.45
| |
AFC South
|
NFC South
| |||||
HOU
|
12.65
|
3.35
|
ATL
|
9.51
|
6.49
| |
IND
|
6.06
|
9.94
|
CAR
|
8.46
|
7.54
| |
JAC
|
5.14
|
10.86
|
NO
|
6.74
|
9.26
| |
TEN
|
4.84
|
11.16
|
TB
|
6.42
|
9.58
| |
AFC West
|
NFC West
| |||||
SD
|
10.41
|
5.59
|
SF
|
11.55
|
4.45
| |
DEN
|
9.40
|
6.60
|
ARI
|
8.05
|
7.95
| |
KC
|
5.77
|
10.23
|
SEA
|
7.93
|
8.07
| |
OAK
|
5.73
|
10.28
|
STL
|
6.54
|
9.46
| |
Playoffs
|
Playoffs
| |||||
#6 BAL @ #3 PIT
|
#6 DET @ #3 GB
| |||||
#5 DEN @ #4 NE
|
#5 DAL @ #4 ATL
| |||||
#1 HOU
|
#1 SF
| |||||
#2 SD
|
#2 PHI
| |||||
Following Wk2 games I have adjusted the power ratings for 10 teams, 5 up and 5 down as I always keep the proper balance within my ratings. After updating for last week’s action, and the power rating changes just mentioned, there are nine teams that moved up or down 1 projected win:
- UP: SD +1.4, MIA +1.4, HOU +1.3, SF +1.2
- DOWN: TEN (1.7), OAK (1.3), NO (1.3), KC (1.1), DET (1.1)
As far as changes to my playoff projections, SD was the biggest mover in the AFC, as they were out of the playoff projection last week (just barely as I mentioned in the column), but now have slid up to the #2 seed based on a one level bump up in their power rating (+0.5 wins), along with PR adjustments to future opponents (+0.9 wins). There were also seeding changes in the AFC, but the only team that slid out of a spot based on SD sliding in was NYJ. All of my early projections have showed these two teams very close to one another as far as projected wins, and thus I expect their Wk16 SNF battle in NY to be critical to both teams as far as the playoffs go. In the NFC the only change to playoff projections was GB and DET switching spots (Division Winner/Wild Card respectively) based on last week’s results, while DAL slipped to #6 following their loss at SEA. Lastly, of note, TEN & CLE are currently ahead of the pack as far as who is likely to get the #1 pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. I currently project CLE to have the 12th toughest remaining schedule, while TEN is near the bottom @ #29 – it would seem CLE may have the edge in this “race”, especially with a rookie QB, but we will know more after about 5 weeks of action.
Last analysis for this week (I will post each week just like the standings above) is my power rankings. My rankings are comprised of a pair of numbers: one measures team performance in my performance ratings (discussed in the opener of this entry); two measures team performance vs. the spread. These two ratings are weighted and combined for my official power rankings. For my blog I will only provide the order of the teams, not the actual power ranking as that is for my eyes only because it is used in my weekly handicapping process:
1
|
HOU
|
2
|
SF
|
3
|
SD
|
3
|
PIT
|
5
|
NE
|
5
|
BAL
|
7
|
GB
|
8
|
DEN
|
9
|
PHI
|
10
|
ATL
|
11
|
NYJ
|
11
|
CAR
|
13
|
DAL
|
14
|
NO
|
15
|
WAS
|
15
|
SEA
|
15
|
DET
|
18
|
CHI
|
19
|
NYG
|
20
|
ARI
|
21
|
BUF
|
22
|
MIA
|
23
|
CIN
|
24
|
STL
|
25
|
OAK
|
25
|
MIN
|
27
|
KC
|
28
|
TB
|
29
|
IND
|
30
|
JAC
|
31
|
TEN
|
32
|
CLE
|
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