For my last installment of my summer NFL series which I hope everyone enjoyed, I am aggregating all the data I have previously presented, applying it to each team, including every team’s separate SOS, and finalizing the projected standings come Sunday, December 30th at about 8pm EDT. The wins presented below will sum to 256, which is the number of wins an NFL season will have, barring any ties. I have also provided a reason for each team’s move, if there was one, in instances where a specific stat or metric I presented earlier this summer had a direct impact on a team’s projected wins and losses. Remember, especially when attempting to project each team’s actual wins and losses for a season, it is not an exact science – it is more an art, where you try and apply ideas, assumptions, premises and statistical analysis to each team, and use each as its own separate piece in an attempt to try and solve the puzzle, which is the entire NFL. What also makes this kind of exercise extremely tough is the fact there will be injuries, perhaps critical ones at say the QB position, which will throw any projection right out the window immediately – as we saw LY when Matt Schaub went down for the Texans when they were 8-3 – they wound up only 10-6. So please keep that in mind, as because so many things can change during the course of a season, I never recommend playing any wager on team total wins. There are just too many variables, and the duration of the wager is simply too long to really find any true value.
As a separate note, related to this article, I will continue to update this projected standings analysis and post what the standings look like after each week’s games. A lot of people were interested in that projection as last year went on, and if you go back and take a look, you will see just how accurate this model is as far as projecting who the playoff teams will be, very early in the season even as at this time last year I was correct on 5 of the 8 division winners, and was on top of all the possible playoff teams by Wk8. The difference between this version and that one is the prior was strictly using isolated current power ratings to play the season out, where this one is calibrated and takes into account key metrics and their impact on the standings – the prior was more of a science, whereas this one is more of an art.
Before jumping into the numbers, here is a legend to use for the “reasoning” column listed to the far right. .
TOM #1: Turnover Margin Analysis, Part I
LI PD, LI YPP, LI FD/GM: Leading Indicators: Points Differential, Yards per Play, First Downs per Game
PTS SD: Points Scored Standard Deviation
Let’s start with the AFC, as for aesthetic reasons it’s much simpler to break the two conferences up separately:
AFC East
|
Wins
|
Loss
|
2011 W/L
|
Reasoning
|
NE
|
12
|
4
|
13-3
|
TOM #1
|
NYJ
|
9
|
7
|
8-8
| |
BUF
|
7
|
9
|
6-10
| |
MIA
|
6
|
10
|
6-10
|
TOM #1, LI PD
|
AFC North
| ||||
PIT
|
11
|
5
|
12-4
|
LI PD
|
BAL
|
9
|
7
|
12-4
|
LI YPP
|
CIN
|
8
|
8
|
9-7
| |
CLE
|
3
|
13
|
4-12
| |
AFC South
| ||||
HOU
|
14
|
2
|
10-6
|
+/- 4GMS
|
TEN
|
8
|
8
|
9-7
| |
IND
|
6
|
10
|
2-14
|
TOM #1, +/- 4GMS, PTS SD
|
JAC
|
6
|
10
|
5-11
|
PTS SD
|
AFC West
| ||||
DEN
|
10
|
6
|
8-8
| |
SD
|
10
|
6
|
8-8
|
TOM #1
|
KC
|
6
|
10
|
7-9
|
TOM #1, LI PD
|
OAK
|
4
|
12
|
8-8
|
TOM #1, LI PD, +/- 4GMS
|
Playoffs
| ||||
#6 NYJ @ #3 PIT
| ||||
#5 SD @ #4 DEN
| ||||
#1 HOU
| ||||
#2 NE
| ||||
This projection includes a pair of new playoff teams from 2011, with the Chargers and Jets grabbing the Wild Cards, which means the Ravens and Bengals are out. Also, I project the Steelers to win the AFC North, a year after falling just short to the Ravens. I give the tie-breaker to the Jets over the Ravens for the final wild card, as the two teams do not play each other this season, but I feel the Jets will have a better AFC record mostly because they face the AFC South where the Ravens face the AFC West; and the Jets face PIT & SD in their other 2 AFC games, where BAL will play NE & HOU.
AFC East (combined up 1 win from LY): I project NE to win this division once again as no team improved enough in the offseason to catch them, and the Pats will be extra hungry following another Super Bowl loss to NYG. Metrics wise, NE will likely not enjoy such a favorable impact from TOM compared to 2011 when they finished #3. I bumped the NYJ up one win based on the fact I feel they underachieved some LY, but they still do not have the look of a 10 win team, especially with their own underwhelming QB play and an improving division. Speaking of that improvement, BUF also bumped up 1 win from LY, as I like many of their moves this offseason – and, I really like the way their schedule is laid out, in particular the final seven weeks of the season. MIA once again is projected in last place however there are many statistical angles that support an improvement in their record – TOM #1, similar to the NE discussion above, and their points differential from LY. That being said, what I am not 100% positive on is how those stats impact a team that endured so many drastic changes, such as a new head coach and a rookie starting QB – that will be something to keep an eye on. Overall, the last few seasons, MIA has played better than their record indicates, and sooner than many expect they could enjoy a jump in wins similar to 2007-2008 when they went +10 (1 to 11 wins).
AFC North (combined down 6 wins from LY): BAL & PIT have enjoyed dominance over this division for nearly the last decade, and I feel for the most part that will continue this year as well, although CIN is starting to put some nice young pieces together and could challenge, even more so than LY, in the very near future. Both of the heavyweights in this division have indicators that suggest a drop off in wins from LY, and that is exactly what I have projected – PIT to fall one win to 11, and BAL to fall 3 wins to 9. Both teams will be at worst on the fringe of playoff contention. CIN may have been the surprise team of 2011 in the entire NFL, at least on the eastern side of the Mississippi, and while I expect them to continue to be a solid club, a small dip of one win is what I envision for 2012. The Bengals will not sneak up on anyone this season, have to play the NFC East compared to the NFC West LY, and still went 0-4 vs. PIT & BAL LY. CLE I also feel will drop a win from LY due to a tougher schedule, and the fact they will be starting a rookie QB – although they too are starting to get a few nice pieces in place, especially offensively, and could start mounting more of a challenge in the next 1-3 years. Overall I have all four teams in this division at least dropping one game from LY, with BAL dropping 3.
AFC South (combined plus 8 wins from LY including IND & HOU whom I project to win 4 more games): while they remain either the worst or 2nd worst division in football top to bottom (hello NFC West), there is also certainly no arguing it is rapidly, and I do stress rapidly improving. Let’s start with HOU, whom I have as the best team in the NFL heading into this season. As I have mentioned in past articles such as this one, the Texans were playing the best football of any team any season (since I started it 5 years ago) according to my NFL Model – yes, that good. They were able to go 10-6 LY despite the fact their starting QB was out for the last 6 games and the playoffs, a stretch where they went 3-3 to close the regular season, and 1-1 in playoffs including a narrow defeat in BAL with TJ Yates under center during the Divisional Round. They were not greatly assisted by any metrics or stats LY – combine that with the high ratings in my model – and there is no reason they shouldn’t absolutely tear through the regular season in 2012. I slotted TEN in 2nd place this year, but think Hasselbeck would be the better QB to win this season compared to Locker – realizing Locker is obviously the better long term answer, but is he going to wind up being “the” answer? The bottom two teams were awful LY, but should improve some in the coming season(s). IND I have projected to win 4 more games than LY as newly minted starting QB Andrew Luck will be the answer under center; JAC is starting over after getting rid of Jack Del Rio as HC (thanks a lot Jaguars as I absolutely loved the hiring my Broncos made snagging him as their DC), and although MJD held out, he is now in camp, and their offense should improve some with Gabbert having a year under his belt, and the addition of top ten pick WR Justin Blackmon. Both of those squads expected increase in wins are aided by the standard deviation of their points scored LY, while IND should also enjoy a favorable impact from TOM, an area that crushed them in 2011.
AFC West (combined down 1 win from LY): in 2011 the difference between first place and last place was 1 lousy game, with a trio of teams tying at the top sporting 8-8 marks, and KC just one game back at 7-9. Obviously, as far as LY was concerned, there was not a big difference between these four teams – and AFC West fans would have it no other way as this division is home to some of the nastiest rivalries and home field advantages in the game. Using that statement as a base, it seems obvious that with the addition of Peyton Manning DEN now appears to be the top dog in the division so I project they will once again take home the AFC West title. SD was negatively impacted by TOM LY, so a reversion is expected this season which often leads to more wins – check the TOM #1 article link above for further details. The TOM also will impact KC & OAK, but unlike SD, those teams will likely face negative TOM repercussions in 2012, dropping their wins total. KC is a very trendy pick this season to make some noise, and while it is true they suffered many key injuries LY, and they will have a new head coach this season, I just do not see much improvement from KC, and decided to stick with the metrics and project they drop to 6-10. OAK is very much in the same boat as rival KC on many levels, but I project them to take a big time drop to 4 wins in 2012, based on the TOM, the points differential, and the big increase in SOS as the AFC West will face perhaps the two toughest divisions in football from top to bottom in the NFC South and AFC North. This is DEN’s division to lose, but I expect SD to give them a run for their money and also reach the playoffs – perhaps winding up with the two facing off for a third time in January.
Playoff Projections (2 new teams, here are the differences from LY: PIT in for BAL as AFC North champs, SD in for PIT as WC #1 [net BAL out of playoffs], NYJ in for CIN as WC #2): my projections have a pair of very entertaining and headline worthy WC matchups as the Jets and Steelers would lock horns in Pittsburgh for the third playoff meeting in the last eight years (PIT won both prior meetings 24-19 in ’10 & 20-17 in ’04), while the Chargers and Broncos would play for a third time, and for the first time this rivalry would be featured in the playoffs. The Patriots and Texans would earn byes and await the winners. I project the Broncos beat the Chargers at home and would move on the face the Texans, while the Steelers dispatch the Jets again and face NE one more time (would be the 5th playoff meeting since ’96, but first since the AFC Championship in ’04). In the Divisional round Denver will pull the upset and beat the Texans as Peyton Manning will continue to terrorize the Texans, while the Patriots take care of business vs. PIT. After those games play out we would be left with an AFC Championship of DEN @ NE, which would be packed with storylines obviously – Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady, and a rematch of a 2011 Divisional round game that the Patriots won easily. NE will win this matchup again, and move on to the Super Bowl.
Now that the AFC is out of the way, let’s look closer at the NFC predictions:
NFC East
|
Wins
|
Loss
|
2011 W/L
|
Reasoning
|
PHI
|
12
|
4
|
8-8
|
TOM #1, TOM #2, LI PD, +/- 4GMS
|
DAL
|
9
|
7
|
8-8
| |
WAS
|
7
|
9
|
5-11
|
TOM #1
|
NYG
|
5
|
11
|
9-7
|
TOM #1, TOM #2, +/- 4GMS
|
NFC North
| ||||
GB
|
11
|
5
|
15-1
|
TOM #1, TOM #2, PTS SD, +/- 4GMS
|
CHI
|
10
|
6
|
8-8
| |
DET
|
6
|
10
|
10-6
|
+/- 4GMS
|
MIN
|
4
|
12
|
3-13
|
TOM #1
|
NFC South
| ||||
NO
|
11
|
5
|
13-3
| |
CAR
|
10
|
6
|
6-10
|
LI YPP, LI FD/GM, +/- 4GMS
|
ATL
|
10
|
6
|
10-6
| |
TB
|
3
|
13
|
4-12
|
LI PD
|
NFC West
| ||||
SF
|
9
|
7
|
13-3
|
TOM #1, TOM #2, LI YPP, LI FD/GM, +/- 4GMS
|
ARI
|
7
|
9
|
8-8
| |
STL
|
7
|
9
|
2-14
|
+/- 4GMS
|
SEA
|
6
|
10
|
7-9
| |
Playoffs
| ||||
#6 CAR @ #3 NO
| ||||
#5 CHI @ #4 SF
| ||||
#1 PHI
| ||||
#2 GB
| ||||
I project the NFC to have 3 new playoff teams compared to 2011: PHI will overtake NYG in the NFC East, and secure home field advantage in the NFC playoffs after not even reaching the dance LY; CHI & CAR will grab the WC spots, which means DET & ATL will miss the playoffs in 2012. There are tie-breakers in the NFC I had to decide upon just like the AFC, and I have the Panthers earning the final playoff spot over ATL based on schedule layout, and the fact its flat out been proven over the last 15+ years we see 5+ new playoff teams each season, and CAR is new whereas ATL is not.
NFC East (combined +3 games compared to 2011): perhaps the division that is home to my biggest surprise projections, I have PHI bouncing back from a massively disappointing 2011 to take home not only the division, but also home field advantage come January. What’s more, I project the NYG to finish in last place, with a 5-11 mark – and WAS to improve 2 games to 7-9, finishing 2 games ahead of NYG. As you can see from the reasoning column next to PHI, TOM should revert back a lot in favor of them, which should directly lead to wins. Remember, per the TOM Part I article, the Eagles LY statistically played like a 12-4 team, but the negative impact their TOM had on them was essentially worth 4 losses – the biggest reason they underachieved and missed the playoffs. That will not happen again this season, and it could be a special year for the Birds in 2012. I gave DAL a one game bump in wins as I feel they are a strong team, but are still lacking “something” to put them over the top. They will be in the playoff mix, but I feel will fall just short once again. WAS, like PHI, suffered through a negative impact from TOM in 2011, which should revert some in 2012 – but again, similar to the Dolphins discussed above, starting a rookie QB is typically not a strong variable to have at the most critical position on the field, especially as they relate to turnovers – so it remains to be seen if their TOM will start reverting upwards this year, or if it may take a couple years for the correction to occur. I do think RG3 will be the real deal, just like Andrew Luck, and the Skins will rely on their strong defense and the offensive mind of Mike Shanahan to outplay what most people believe will occur. Lastly, the defending champ NYG I project at 5-11….5-11 you say? Seems crazy, I know. But that is almost the point – if it’s too obvious and too many people agree it is unlikely to happen. Let’s be realistic about NYG LY – while they certainly played great in the playoffs, and earned their 2nd SB in 4 seasons, they still narrowly snuck into said playoffs in the first place. They enjoyed extreme success in both of my TOM metrics, only played to the #15 rating in my performance metrics, and lastly will play an extremely tough schedule this season – a schedule I have rated #2 based on my initial power ratings including the #1 road schedule in the entire NFL. It all adds up to an off year for the GMen, as they will struggle and seemingly never find their groove in 2012.
NFC North (combined drop of 5 wins from LY): another strong NFC division, the North houses perhaps the best team in football, GB. The Packers went 15-1 LY during the regular season, but were bounced in their playoff opener, at Lambeau, for the 2nd time in 4 years, vs. the eventual champ NYG. LY’s Packers weren’t quite the statistical juggernaut they had been in the last 3 seasons, only finishing #9 in my ratings (including a defense that was rated #27), following back to back seasons of top 5 finishes (#5 in 2010, #1 in 2009). So even with the impressive record LY I feel that was more driven by a weak schedule, and timely play vs. say HOU who were putting up impressive numbers all around and were truly “earning” their record. This year they are likely to suffer from a negative TOM impact, along with a reversion/decline in their points scored. I expect GB to remain one of the best teams, but their record will dip some, even perhaps below a team or two in the NFC. I expect CHI & DET to flip flop, with the Bears getting back to the playoffs, while the Lions fall back. CHI is +2 in wins this year in my projection, but that isn’t supported by one stat – it’s all about the acquisitions over the summer, the health of Jay Cutler, and a hungry team with an easier schedule compared to GB & DET. CHI is getting an awful lot of press as a potential sleeper team which doesn’t make me feel great about it, but I believe with a few breaks and Cutler under center for an entire season hooking up with Brandon Marshall will mean good things for Da Bears in 2012. DET will be in free-fall this season, sorry my Lions fan buddies (MK). They too were not greatly impacted by any stats LY that artificially bloated their record, but 10-6 for this roster just doesn’t feel right to me. I did have DET as #11 in my PR LY, which is solid, and they certainly will not be crushed by a schedule that includes the AFC South and NFC West, but they were fortunate with injuries LY and getting quite a few breaks, which won’t happen again. Lastly is MIN, who I gave +1 win this season because of TOM. In reality, they are the worst team in the NFC North by a clear margin, and are still searching for answers at almost every position, even RB as the 100% healthy return of AP could be the difference between winning my projected 4 games, and having the #1 pick in the 2013 draft.
NFC South (combined +1 wins from LY): is this the best division in football? It is certainly in the conversation, and this year there are 3 teams who have legitimate plans on reaching the playoffs and making some noise. The offseason was dominated by talk of the Saints bounty program, which led to multiple suspensions of players, and even HC Sean Payton, who will miss the entire 2012 season. That loss cannot be discounted at all, as if you recall following Payton’s freak broken leg suffered on the sidelines the team struggled offensively, as the level of comfort Brees enjoyed with Payton was impacted when another play caller took over. To me, all those suspensions are worth 2 games, as I have NO safely in the playoffs at 11-5, but like GB, not quite the same juggernaut as 2011. Cam Newton’s Panthers will break through this season, and make their first, of what is likely to be many playoff appearances behind the stud 2nd year QB. CAR’s offense performed at a high level LY, checking in @ #4 in the NFL, which only figures to improve with many of the younger Panthers now with a year of experience – and if you refer to the Leading Indicators article, two key metrics support an improvement in their record this season. They key to CAR truly making some January noise could be a defense that was crushed with lost injury games in 2011 – they attempted to bolster a defense that ranked #28 LY via the draft by grabbing LB Luke Kuechly in the first round. I think CAR could be the SF of this season, embarking on a very successful journey that will likely be the first of many in Charlotte. ATL will finish 3rd, and it’s not that I don’t like this squad – it’s just they don’t overly impress me, and didn’t do much in the offseason to bolster a squad that consistently falls woefully short in the playoffs. Rounding out the division once again will be TB, who cleaned house this offseason in hopes to get back closer to their 2010 performance. There are a few nice pieces to work with, but one key metric is going against them, along with the fact they reside in the NFC South.
NFC West (combined down 1 win from LY): SF was the toast of the NFL last season, hosting the NFC Championship game and coming so close to reaching their first Super Bowl since the mid 90s. What will they do for an encore? I am projecting a major dip, one of 4 games that will keep SF atop the NFC West, but nowhere close to having home field advantage come January. Why you may ask? It starts with +28 – that was their TOM LY. Do you know how much TOM reverts backwards when you lead the league, and post a # that high? Read my TOM articles linked above for the answer, but let’s just say it’s seriously not good. If you remove the impact of TOM LY for SF, they played like a 10-6 team – bump that schedule up a touch as it will be in 2012, improve their division modestly, and you have a 9-7 team. The Niners will remain the class of the NFC West, but the gap is closing. Who is closing the fastest? My vote goes to the Rams, who I project will have the biggest win increase from LY going from 2-14 to 7-9 under new HC Jeff Fisher. I have mentioned it before, but I will again – cannot stress enough how much I like this hire for STL. They are still missing quite a few pieces, especially along that OL that almost got Sam Bradford killed LY, but they are on the right path and will be challenging for a playoff spot within 2-3 years. ARI & SEA will both remain within one game of LY’s mark, as ARI still has issues at QB, while SEA may have found theirs but he is a rookie and will take time to break in. This division really is improving on the sidelines (Harbaugh, Whisenhunt, Fisher all very solid coaches), and on the field – it shouldn’t be the NFL kicking bag for too much longer.
Playoff Projections (3 new teams, here are the changes from LY: PHI will win the NFC East, securing the #1 seed, and forcing the NYG out of the playoffs all together; CAR will step in for DET, while CHI will replace ATL): my WC weekend of NFC games shapes up with a divisional matchup like the AFC with CAR travelling to NO, and secondly CHI going to SF in a throw-back playoff matchup. I will take CAR to upset NO in the Dome, and CHI to take care of business in SF as both road teams will pick up wins. That would leave us with Divisional round matchups between CAR@PHI & CHI@GB. Those would be rematches of regular season contests, as CAR and PHI play in PHI on MNF mid-season, while obviously CHI & GB will play twice during regular season – and the two just played in the playoffs a couple years ago. I will take the Eagles and Packers to advance, setting up an NFC Title game in PHI between GB and PHI. Sadly for PHI fans I think GB will be very focused come playoff time, be the better club, and will sneak out a win in a very tight game.
Super Bowl Projection: New England over Green Bay. Quite simply, its New England’s year, they are overdue for another title, and Tom Brady will take home the MVP.
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