After three weeks of action only three teams remain unbeaten – HOU, ATL & ARI; while a pair are winless – NO & CLE. The Saints haven’t won a game yet? This is the NFL, a league that spreads the talent around to all 32 teams, and any given season literally any team can shock the world and play well, or vice versa like the Saints this season, any team can struggle. Sadly, instead of the attention going to how well HOU, ATL & ARI have played so far, the focus of most conversations related to the NFL this season is aimed at the poor job the replacement officials are doing. It’s hard to argue any differently to be frank. That is all I will say about it – now, we will jump right into the numbers, and actually discuss football and how teams are performing.
Performance Ratings (max grade is 160, 80 on offense and 80 on defense, calculated using 16 different stats with 5 points per stat being the best score = 16x5 = 80).
OFFENSE
|
DEFENSE
|
TOTAL TEAM
| |||||||
Wins
|
Rating
|
Rank
|
Rating
|
Rank
|
Rating
|
Rank
| |||
3
|
HOU
|
52.7
|
4
|
54.3
|
1
|
107.0
|
1
| ||
2
|
PHI
|
41.0
|
16
|
53.8
|
2
|
94.8
|
2
| ||
1
|
NE
|
52.8
|
2
|
37.3
|
16
|
90.2
|
3
| ||
3
|
ATL
|
52.3
|
5
|
37.7
|
15
|
90.0
|
4
| ||
2
|
NYG
|
49.0
|
7
|
40.7
|
12
|
89.7
|
5
| ||
2
|
SF
|
46.2
|
11
|
42.0
|
11
|
88.2
|
6
| ||
1
|
MIA
|
40.3
|
17
|
47.2
|
7
|
87.5
|
7
| ||
2
|
BUF
|
50.7
|
6
|
36.7
|
18
|
87.3
|
8
| ||
2
|
BAL
|
52.8
|
2
|
34.3
|
22
|
87.2
|
9
| ||
2
|
DAL
|
38.3
|
19
|
48.2
|
4
|
86.5
|
10
| ||
2
|
MIN
|
45.7
|
12
|
40.5
|
13
|
86.2
|
11
| ||
2
|
CHI
|
32.5
|
29
|
53.0
|
3
|
85.5
|
12
| ||
2
|
SD
|
42.0
|
15
|
43.5
|
10
|
85.5
|
12
| ||
1
|
GB
|
37.0
|
23
|
48.2
|
4
|
85.2
|
14
| ||
1
|
KC
|
47.0
|
8
|
36.5
|
19
|
83.5
|
15
| ||
2
|
SEA
|
36.2
|
25
|
47.0
|
8
|
83.2
|
16
| ||
1
|
DET
|
46.8
|
9
|
35.8
|
21
|
82.7
|
17
| ||
1
|
PIT
|
46.3
|
10
|
36.3
|
20
|
82.7
|
17
| ||
1
|
DEN
|
43.3
|
14
|
38.7
|
14
|
82.0
|
19
| ||
1
|
WAS
|
53.7
|
1
|
27.2
|
29
|
80.8
|
20
| ||
3
|
ARI
|
32.3
|
30
|
47.8
|
6
|
80.2
|
21
| ||
1
|
TB
|
28.5
|
32
|
45.0
|
9
|
73.5
|
22
| ||
1
|
STL
|
35.7
|
27
|
37.0
|
17
|
72.7
|
23
| ||
2
|
CIN
|
44.5
|
13
|
27.0
|
30
|
71.5
|
24
| ||
1
|
IND
|
37.5
|
21
|
33.3
|
23
|
70.8
|
25
| ||
2
|
NYJ
|
38.2
|
20
|
32.7
|
25
|
70.8
|
25
| ||
1
|
CAR
|
39.7
|
18
|
28.7
|
26
|
68.3
|
27
| ||
1
|
JAC
|
36.7
|
24
|
28.5
|
28
|
65.2
|
28
| ||
1
|
OAK
|
36.2
|
25
|
28.7
|
26
|
64.8
|
29
| ||
0
|
CLE
|
29.0
|
31
|
33.2
|
24
|
62.2
|
30
| ||
0
|
NO
|
37.3
|
22
|
22.5
|
31
|
59.8
|
31
| ||
1
|
TEN
|
32.8
|
28
|
16.8
|
32
|
49.7
|
32
| ||
Starting next week I will also include each team’s blended SOS ratings as they finally become relevant enough to discuss. As far as the performance ratings go, they too will start to be more static in the next 2-3 weeks where we will typically not see the type of huge jumps week to week that are still occurring – for example, NYG went from #18 last week to #5 this week, or CAR falling from #17 last week to #27 this week.
Looking at where the ratings stack up following Wk3 the top 3 remained the same – yes, even PHI remains in the #2 spot as they are truly playing well, except TOM is absolutely killing them (PHI is (6) which ranks them #30 in the NFL) – right there shows just how important turnovers are for any team. The Eagles are currently being buoyed by a strong defense that checks in @ #2 in the NFL (#7 vs. rush, #6 vs. pass, #1 vs. miscellaneous), but in order to make some noise in the coming weeks and stay alive in the NFC East their offense will need to improve statistically, and in holding on to the football. MIA and BUF are two more surprise top ten teams, checking in at #7 & #8 respectively. Those two are doing it differently with MIA holding a #17/#7 split between offense and defense rating, while BUF is almost the mirror image at #6/#18. Keep an eye on these two in the next few weeks: MIA has a pair of road games @ ARI and CIN, while BUF has a tough trio coming up hosting NE, then a pair of road games @ SF and ARI. We will know a lot more about both of these teams come Wk7. MIN is the top ranked NFC North team, using a nice balance between offense and defense to post a 2-1 record following last week’s impressive win over SF. Christian Ponder is having a fabulous season thus far leading the 6th ranked passing offense including ranking #2 in completion %, #2 in INT, and #4 in QBR. GB continues to struggle offensively posting the 23rd ranked offense through 3 games, as their rushing offense sits at #24, while passing wise they are just #22. We should see their rating jump in the next two weeks, especially offensively, after they host NO and visit IND. DEN has fallen from #6 last week to #19 this week driven by a poor defensive performance vs. HOU at home Sunday. One thing to keep an eye on with DEN is the fact they have faced a very tough schedule thus far, as included in their three games are two of the three undefeated teams (ATL, HOU). I expect DEN to improve in the coming weeks as their team gels behind new QB Peyton Manning, and the schedule eases some – currently I have DEN as facing the 2nd toughest schedule to date, but with the 29th toughest slate remaining. Undefeated ARI only moved up 2 spots to #21 as their offense remains ranked poorly at #30. As mentioned last week this is a team to keep an eye on as fade material in the coming weeks as they are not playing as well as their record, and the media indicates. TEN remains the worst team in the NFL, and didn’t pick up much ground despite their exciting OT win over DET.
With ATL & NYG climbing up the ratings to #4 & #5 respectively, the NFC now has 4 of the top 6 teams in football. What’s more, 7 of the bottom 9 reside in the AFC, with the only NFC representatives being #31 NO and #27 CAR – a pair of NFC South teams. As far as strength of division goes, the NFC North has the highest ranked “worst” team with DET checking in at T17; the NFC East has 2 of the top 5, 3 of the top 10, and their last team WAS is a respectable #20. The NFC shows clear domination through the early part of the season, which ties into their big edge in head to head meetings with the AFC. Of note with the AFC, the East also has strength at the top with 3 of their 4 teams ranking in the top 8.
Next up, here are my projected standings after Wk3. As a reminder, this process involves playing out the entire season based on my power ratings for each team. For more information on this topic and process, and to see how accurate this exercise has been in the past, please read this blog entry from July 31.
AFC East
|
Wins
|
Loss
|
NFC East
|
Wins
|
Loss
| |
NYJ
|
9.14
|
6.86
|
PHI
|
9.67
|
6.33
| |
NE
|
8.72
|
7.28
|
DAL
|
8.87
|
7.13
| |
BUF
|
8.07
|
7.93
|
NYG
|
8.39
|
7.61
| |
MIA
|
7.22
|
8.78
|
WAS
|
6.76
|
9.24
| |
AFC North
|
NFC North
| |||||
BAL
|
9.58
|
6.42
|
GB
|
8.88
|
7.12
| |
PIT
|
8.49
|
7.52
|
CHI
|
8.30
|
7.70
| |
CIN
|
8.08
|
7.92
|
MIN
|
7.86
|
8.14
| |
CLE
|
4.35
|
11.65
|
DET
|
7.84
|
8.16
| |
AFC South
|
NFC South
| |||||
HOU
|
13.08
|
2.92
|
ATL
|
10.85
|
5.15
| |
JAC
|
5.66
|
10.34
|
CAR
|
7.24
|
8.76
| |
IND
|
5.54
|
10.46
|
TB
|
6.22
|
9.78
| |
TEN
|
5.43
|
10.57
|
NO
|
6.00
|
10.00
| |
AFC West
|
NFC West
| |||||
SD
|
9.23
|
6.77
|
SF
|
10.74
|
5.26
| |
DEN
|
9.05
|
6.95
|
ARI
|
9.13
|
6.87
| |
KC
|
6.68
|
9.32
|
SEA
|
8.39
|
7.61
| |
OAK
|
6.40
|
9.61
|
STL
|
6.14
|
9.86
| |
Playoffs
|
Playoffs
| |||||
#6 NE @ #3 SD
|
#6 DAL @ #3 PHI
| |||||
#5 DEN @ #4 NYJ
|
#5 ARI @ #4 GB
| |||||
#1 HOU
|
#1 ATL
| |||||
#2 BAL
|
#2 SF
| |||||
Following Wk3 games I have adjusted the power ratings for 8 teams, 4 up and 4 down as I always keep the proper balance within my ratings. After updating for last week’s action, and the power rating changes just mentioned, there are eight teams that moved up or down 1 projected win:
- UP: ATL 1.3, MIN 1.3, NYG 1.1, ARI 1.1
- DOWN: CAR (1.2), WAS (1.2), SD (1.2), PIT 1.0
As far as changes to my playoff projections, the AFC has one new playoff team, the NYJ, following their win in MIA while PIT is no longer projected to reach the playoffs after falling to 1-2 following a loss to OAK. Seeding wise HOU remains the #1 seed, and as I projected heading into the season, I will be shocked if they are not the AFC’s #1 seed come January – barring catastrophic injury of course. In the AFC, I look for DEN to make a move and likely win the AFC West because as mentioned they have a remaining schedule that is ranked near the easiest in the NFL, while the Jets could be in trouble as they easily have the toughest remaining schedule of potential AFC playoff teams as things stand now. In the NFC we also only saw one playoff team change with ARI joining, and DET dropping. SOS will be a critical factor down the stretch for all these teams, and that is something again we will know more about in the next few weeks, but as things currently stand DET has the #2 remaining SOS, while ARI is #3 – that could work out to be a major disadvantage as the season plays out.
In the race for the 1st pick in the 2013 NFL draft the Browns have pulled ahead of the Titans because of the aforementioned TEN win. Currently, CLE has about a 1.5-2 calibrated game edge on the 3 AFC South teams (not including HOU obviously) who are their closest chasers.
Last analysis for this week (I will post each week just like the standings above) is my power rankings. My rankings are comprised of a pair of numbers: one measures team performance in my performance ratings (discussed in the opener of this entry); two measures team performance vs. the spread. These two ratings are weighted and combined for my official power rankings. For my blog I will only provide the order of the teams, not the actual power ranking as that is for my eyes only because it is used in my weekly handicapping process as potential model plays, which are currently 2-0 on season in games I released, and 7-0 overall including games I left off early in season although they fit the criteria:
1
|
HOU
|
2
|
SF
|
3
|
ATL
|
4
|
NE
|
4
|
BAL
|
6
|
GB
|
7
|
DEN
|
8
|
PHI
|
9
|
PIT
|
10
|
SD
|
10
|
NYJ
|
12
|
DAL
|
13
|
NYG
|
14
|
NO
|
15
|
ARI
|
16
|
CHI
|
16
|
SEA
|
18
|
CAR
|
18
|
DET
|
20
|
BUF
|
21
|
WAS
|
22
|
MIA
|
22
|
MIN
|
24
|
CIN
|
25
|
STL
|
25
|
OAK
|
27
|
KC
|
28
|
TB
|
29
|
JAC
|
30
|
TEN
|
30
|
IND
|
32
|
CLE
|
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