**This week I will
do my best updating daily**
***FEEL FREE TO DISCUSS, LEAVE
COMMENTS, I WILL RESPOND TO EVERY ONE***
Here are the 31 auto-bids by conference [bold represents
already won conference tournament, if championship game is known but not played
yet that is listed, rest are projected winners]:
America East: Stony Brook vs. Vermont on Saturday,
March 10 @ 11am
Atlantic Ten: Temple
ACC: North Carolina
Atlantic Sun:
Belmont
Big 12: Kansas
Big East: Syracuse
Big Sky:
Montana
Big South:
UNC-Asheville
Big Ten: Ohio State
Big West: Long Beach State
Colonial: VCU
Conference USA: Memphis
Horizon: Detroit
Ivy: Harvard
MAAC: Loyola
Maryland
MAC: Akron
MEAC: Norfolk State
Missouri Valley:
Creighton
Mountain West: UNLV
Northeast:
Long Island Brooklyn
Ohio Valley:
Murray State
Pac 12: Washington
Patriot: Lehigh
SEC: Kentucky
Southern:
Davidson
Southland: Texas Arlington
SWAC: Mississippi Valley State
Summit: South
Dakota State
Sun Belt: Western
Kentucky
West Coast:
St. Mary’s
WAC: New Mexico State
Here are the 28 teams I view as “in the field” as at-large
teams by conference:
**ADDED TEAMS SINCE LAST EDITION
– South Florida moves up to “in the field” from bubble with win Wednesday night
over Villanova.
America East: -
Atlantic Ten: St. Louis, Xavier
ACC: Duke, Florida State, Virginia
Atlantic Sun: -
Big 12: Missouri, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State
Big East: Marquette, Georgetown, Louisville,
Cincinnati, Notre Dame, South Florida
Big Sky: -
Big South: -
Big Ten: Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana
Big West: if Long Beach State was to lose in their
conference tournament they would receive a bid, thus eliminating one at-large
spot.
Colonial: Drexel
Conference USA: -
Horizon: -
Ivy: -
MAAC: -
MAC: -
MEAC: -
Missouri Valley: Wichita State
Mountain West: San Diego State, New Mexico
Northeast: -
Ohio Valley: -
Pac 12: California, Arizona
Patriot: -
SEC: Florida, Vanderbilt
Southern: -
Southland: -
SWAC: -
Summit: -
Sun Belt: -
West Coast: Gonzaga
WAC: -
That is 59 of the 68 teams that will comprise the field.
Here are the EIGHTEEN true “bubble” teams by conference, of
which NINE will currently receive bids – but in some conference tournaments we
will see upsets that will reduce the # of these teams receiving a bid from NINE
to likely somewhere closer to FIVE OR SIX.
I have also listed here each team that has even the smallest of chances
at receiving an at-large selection without winning their conference’s auto-bid
just to be thorough (for example, the A10 teams, as I feel none are truly on
the “bubble” but if the teams listed reached their tournament final they may
have a case) – teams will be weeded out as the week goes on and teams lose in
their conference tournaments:
**CHANGES FROM LAST PUBLISHED
VERSION: South Florida moves up to “in the field”. UConn slides onto the bubble, and Seton Hall
is removed from consideration.
America East: -
Atlantic Ten: None truly on bubble BUT if St.
Bonaventure, LaSalle, Dayton, UMass or St. Joseph’s (PA) was to reach the A10
Final they may have a case for being one of last four teams into the field,
obviously dependent on how other conference tournaments play out.
ACC: Miami (FL), NC State. Both are likely to receive invites at this
point. Either could seal the deal for
certain by advancing to the semifinal round of the ACC Tournament, while both
could be in danger of barely missing out should they lose in the first round of
the ACCT.
Atlantic Sun: -
Big 12: Texas. The Horns are likely to receive a bid right
now, and could seal the deal by beating Iowa State in the quarterfinal round of
the Big 12 Tournament Thursday.
Big East: West Virginia, UConn. Tough loss for the Mountaineers yesterday
blowing a nice size lead late puts them firmly on the bubble with 13 losses and
an RPI in the low 40s. I feel by Sunday
they are likely to be one of the last few teams cut from the brackets, but will
still leave them here for at least another day or two as we see how other power
conference tournaments play out. UConn
advancing to the QF round puts them at 10-10 in conference play. Prior to the BET I felt they needed to
advance to the final, however with the way the matchups have played out a win
today vs. Syracuse likely gets them a bid.
Seton Hall was removed as I do not feel they have done enough to warrant
a selection.
Big Sky: -
Big South: -
Big Ten: Purdue, Northwestern. The Boilers are likely in as an at-large, but
picking up only one win vs. the other 5 Big Ten teams that are likely to
receive invites has me placing them on bubble looking in. A win over Nebraska in the opening round of
BTT would be solid, and a good showing vs. Ohio State would lock them into a
spot. A loss to Nebraska and they will
need some help. If Northwestern was to
advance to the BTT semifinals they may receive consideration; if they beat
Michigan then Ohio State to reach the final they may have a case as being one
of the last four invites.
Big West: -
Colonial: -
Conference USA: Southern Mississippi. USM likely needs to advance to the CUSA Final
to receive consideration, and based on their small margin for error playing a
lot of close games during the season I do not see that happening.
Horizon: -
Ivy: -
MAAC: Iona.
With the Gaels losing in the semifinals of their conference tournament I
do not think that will be enough for them to receive an at-large bid, but I
will still include the on the absolute fringe of the bubble – they will need A
LOT of help to grab a spot come Sunday.
MAC: -
MEAC: -
Missouri Valley: -
Mountain West: Colorado State. The Rams probably need to win the MWCT to
receive a bid, or at the very least reach the final for any hopes
whatsoever. Both scenarios unlikely in
my opinion – and even if they happened there appears to be too many teams in
between them and a bid to have a legit shot.
Northeast: -
Ohio Valley: -
Pac 12: Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, Colorado. All four of these teams at a minimum must
advance to the semifinal round of the P12T.
This is likely a four bid conference, with an outside chance at five –
but I feel that is unlikely with the upsets we will see this week. I have listed the teams in the order I
believe they are stacked in right now.
Stanford, UCLA, and Colorado most likely need to win the auto-bid; while
Oregon may sneak in if they reach the semifinals and show well in that spot.
Patriot: -
SEC: Alabama, Tennessee, Mississippi State. Alabama sits on a level above UT & MSU
and could have locked up a bid with a win over Ole Miss this past weekend, but
now must beat South Carolina in the first round of the SECT to remain
alive. Tennessee is the #2 seed and
receives a bye, which oddly enough may hurt them not picking up the extra
win. They at least need to win their
first game, facing either Ole Miss or Auburn.
Miss State has the most work to do and at least needs to win two games
including beating Vanderbilt to get firmly on the bubble.
Southern: -
Southland: -
SWAC: -
Summit: -
Sun Belt: with Middle Tennessee State losing in the
QF round of the SBT they are unlikely to receive an at-large bid on
Sunday. Had they advanced to the Final
and lost they would have been on the bubble.
West Coast: BYU.
The Cougars did themselves no help getting blown out by 20 to Gonzaga in
the semifinals. They still have a solid
RPI, but with two teams locked into bids from the WCC they may need too much
help come Sunday.
WAC: if New Mexico State loses in the final of the
WACT they may still be alive to receive an at-large, but would likely wind up
on the outside looking in.
Here is the order of at-large selections as we stand right
now. Just to reiterate, there are NINE
open spots today – but that # will be reduced due to conference tournament
upsets – I currently project 6 of these teams will wind up making the dance,
with #7-10 being the dreaded “last four out”:
- Purdue
- Miami (FL)
- Texas
- Alabama
- NC State
- Oregon
- BYU
- Tennessee
- West Virginia
Today’s key games:
Noon: UConn vs. Syracuse –UConn must win this game to
receive an invite.
1pm: Southern Mississippi vs. East Carolina – USM is barely
hanging onto the bubble, a bad loss to ECU here would remove them.
330pm: Alabama vs. South Carolina – Alabama is positioned
well currently, but a bad loss to the Gamecocks here could be fatal.
530pm: UCLA vs. Arizona – Arizona likely will be dancing but
a win wouldn’t hurt, while UCLA likely needs to win the P12 title to receive a
bid.
530pm: Colorado State vs. TCU – the Rams are barely hanging
onto the bubble and at the very least need a win here.
530pm: Northwestern vs. Minnesota – NW’s conference record
puts them out of the dance from my perspective, but a couple wins in the B10
tournament could change my opinion.
530pm: New Mexico State vs. Fresno State – NMST has to
advance to at least the final to have any hopes of receiving an at-large.
8pm: Purdue vs. Nebraska – Purdue is in with a win
here. A loss and they may be sweating it
out come Selection Sunday.
9pm: Stanford vs. California – Cal is likely dancing, but
Stanford needs a win here.
9pm: Long Beach State vs. UC-Davis – LBST is also likely
dancing, but an early round loss in the BW tournament could put their bid in
jeopardy.
9pm: Miami (FL) vs. Georgia Tech – Miami is in with a win
here. A loss and it will be close, and
most likely dependent on how other conference tourney’s go.
9pm: Nevada vs. San Jose State – like NMST, Nevada needs to
reach the conference final to have any hopes of receiving at-large
consideration.
930pm: Texas vs. Iowa State – Texas would really help
themselves out with a win over the Cyclones tonight.
10pm: Mississippi State vs. Georgia – MSU finished the
season poorly and needs a win here to get back in the discussion.
1130pm: Colorado vs. Oregon – the last game of the day is
perhaps the biggest as both teams flat out need to win this game to keep hopes
alive.
Multiple Bid Conferences (48 bids here from 11
conferences + 20 additional auto-bids = 68 teams)
BE: 8 ACC:
6 B10: 6 B12: 6 SEC: 5 P12: 4
A10: 3 MWC:
3 WCC: 3 COL: 2 MVC: 2
Team by Team variance vs. Lunardi @ espn.com
UConn: me
OUT, him IN
Seton Hall:
me OUT, him IN
Miami (FL):
me IN, him OUT
NC State:
me IN, him OUT
Northwestern:
me OUT, him IN
Tennessee:
me IN, him OUT
Mississippi State:
me OUT, him IN
Colorado State:
me OUT, him IN
Arizona:
me IN, him OUT
Oregon: me
IN, him OUT
Southern
Mississippi: me OUT, him IN
COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2012
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