Going into the 2011-2012 NBA campaign we all knew how tough the schedule was going to be on every team – cramming 66 games into some 120 days would make for quite a few nights for each and every team where there is just no gas left in the tank to compete at the level needed. But what many didn’t realize is how unfair the league’s schedule was for some teams, and how others “benefited.”
Heading into the season I came up with each teams SOS using my formula which entails placing 2 thru 10 games in their own buckets, testing how many night’s teams would typically play said amount of games during a regular NBA season vs. how many night’s teams were playing those same games this year, then taking the most “extreme” cases we see in this year’s schedule and aggregating. For example, we all know teams typically would not play back to back to back games during a standard NBA regular season – so for every instance I saw that for each team that counted as “1” – I did that exercise for every bucket 2 thru 10 games and counted each instance of a team being “stressed” as “1”.
Before the season here is what the SOS looked like, in rank order with top being toughest:
SOS
|
RANK
| |
CHA
|
86
|
1
|
MEM
|
73
|
2
|
ATL
|
68
|
3
|
SA
|
67
|
4
|
IND
|
64
|
5
|
DET
|
62
|
6
|
LAC
|
62
|
6
|
CHI
|
61
|
8
|
BOS
|
58
|
9
|
GS
|
54
|
10
|
TOR
|
54
|
10
|
CLE
|
53
|
12
|
DAL
|
51
|
13
|
MIA
|
49
|
14
|
PHO
|
49
|
14
|
WAS
|
45
|
16
|
POR
|
44
|
17
|
UTA
|
44
|
17
|
PHI
|
42
|
19
|
DEN
|
41
|
20
|
HOU
|
40
|
21
|
NJ
|
38
|
22
|
SAC
|
37
|
23
|
ORL
|
36
|
24
|
OKC
|
35
|
25
|
MIL
|
34
|
26
|
NY
|
34
|
26
|
MIN
|
33
|
28
|
LAL
|
32
|
29
|
NO
|
31
|
30
|
Now, let’s take a look at the SOS #s above broken out by what teams have played season to date, vs. what teams have remaining:
Wins
|
To Date
|
Rank
|
Remaining
|
Rank
| |||
CHI
|
40
|
55
|
1
|
6
|
23
| ||
OKC
|
37
|
30
|
15
|
5
|
26
| ||
MIA
|
35
|
26
|
23
|
23
|
9
| ||
SA
|
33
|
30
|
15
|
37
|
3
| ||
ORL
|
31
|
32
|
12
|
4
|
29
| ||
ATL
|
30
|
48
|
4
|
20
|
10
| ||
LAL
|
30
|
21
|
27
|
11
|
15
| ||
DAL
|
28
|
42
|
7
|
9
|
20
| ||
IND
|
28
|
29
|
18
|
35
|
5
| ||
LAC
|
27
|
52
|
3
|
10
|
17
| ||
PHI
|
27
|
32
|
12
|
10
|
17
| ||
BOS
|
26
|
17
|
29
|
41
|
2
| ||
DEN
|
26
|
36
|
9
|
5
|
26
| ||
HOU
|
26
|
27
|
21
|
13
|
12
| ||
MEM
|
26
|
30
|
15
|
43
|
1
| ||
UTA
|
26
|
32
|
12
|
12
|
14
| ||
PHO
|
25
|
38
|
8
|
11
|
15
| ||
MIN
|
24
|
27
|
21
|
6
|
23
| ||
NY
|
24
|
29
|
18
|
5
|
26
| ||
POR
|
23
|
36
|
9
|
8
|
22
| ||
MIL
|
22
|
24
|
24
|
10
|
17
| ||
GS
|
20
|
28
|
20
|
26
|
7
| ||
CLE
|
17
|
16
|
30
|
37
|
3
| ||
SAC
|
17
|
24
|
24
|
13
|
12
| ||
DET
|
16
|
46
|
6
|
16
|
11
| ||
NJ
|
16
|
35
|
11
|
3
|
30
| ||
TOR
|
16
|
48
|
4
|
6
|
23
| ||
NO
|
12
|
22
|
26
|
9
|
20
| ||
WAS
|
11
|
20
|
28
|
25
|
8
| ||
CHA
|
7
|
54
|
2
|
32
|
6
|
The above chart is sorted by wins thru Sunday March 25, with the middle box representing season to date SOS in left column and the rank of that SOS in the right column, and the right box representing the same data except it measures the remaining games of the season. The # in each SOS column represents the # of instances a team was “stressed” – with “stressed” representing team’s playing games in fewer nights than typical.
From this chart we can STILL see CHI has played the toughest schedule of any team in the NBA using my formula, playing in 55 of their 61 “stressed” incidents on the season. As mentioned last version, which has held true thus far, I would expect Chicago to hang onto the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference as they currently hold a 3.5 game lead on Miami, and have many less stressed games to close out their season. Of the Eastern Conference contending teams only Orlando has an easier schedule as far as days rest analysis goes with 4 stressed incidents remaining. In the Western Conference Oklahoma City has maintained their hold on the #1 seed as projected in our last version, and we see no reason that will not continue as they look to lock up home court.
Atlantic Division: currently Philadelphia is still holding the top spot as they have for most of the season, but Boston has made up ground – BOS has made up 3 games since our last edition as PHI has come back to earth a ton following their hot start. Both teams had one of the easier schedules over the last six weeks, but what is critical as mentioned again in last version is BOS has an extremely tough schedule to close the season, especially considering the make-up of their team – the Celtics have 41 instances of being stressed over the last 4.5 weeks of the regular season, which I believe will not bode well for them catching Philadelphia even with the recent Sixers slide. The only other team in the playoff mix from the Atlantic is New York, who has played well since HC Mike Dantoni resigned a few weeks ago. Coming into the season the Knicks had the 4th easiest schedule as far as this analysis goes; to date they have played the 18th toughest schedule; to close the season they have a big edge, only 5 instances of stressed situations – 4 back to back games, and one set of 5 games in 7 nights. That should allow the Knicks to secure a playoff berth, and potentially make a run on Philadelphia for the Atlantic Division crown if they can play well head to head, and within the Atlantic.
Central Division: Chicago will win this division, and most likely secure the #1 seed in the playoffs as we have maintained over the last 6 weeks – the Bulls only have 4 back to back sets, one 4 games in 5 nights, and one 5 games in 7 nights set. As far as the rest of the Central Division goes, Indiana is all but secured to taking part in the playoffs, currently slotted 6th with a 6.5 game lead on 9th seed Milwaukee. However, with 35 stressed incidents remaining, which ranks them with the 5th toughest schedule in the NBA, making a drastic jump and improving their seeding to a home-court advantage in the first round seems very unlikely. Because of that, as mentioned in the last edition, I still feel they will remain in the #5 or #6 spot. Milwaukee has played well since making a big trade at the deadline acquiring Monta Ellis, however, with NY having more raw talent, and a much easier schedule, it seems unlikely they wiggle their way into the last spot in the East.
Southeast Division: as mentioned last edition MIA will win that division regardless of any type of analysis that may show any obstacles they have to overcome. But, as discussed above, it does seem unlikely they will catch Chicago for the #1 seed, which could be important come May as the East clearly figures to come down to the Bulls and Heat. Orlando and Atlanta both will make the playoffs, with whoever finishes higher likely slotting into the #3 spot, while the loser will fall to whichever Indiana doesn’t grab – the #5 or #6. What could be the determining factor between these two teams (now that Orlando has kept Dwight Howard) is SOS – and as they have all season, ORL holds a big edge on ATL in that department. To date the two teams have played similar SOS with ATL checking in @ #4, and ORL @ #12 – but to close the season there is a big difference, and this will likely impact the final standings, with ORL sliding into the #3 seed. Only the NJ Nets have an easier closing schedule than the Magic, while the Hawks play the 10th toughest slate. Based on that point I look for ORL to finish in 2nd place in the SE, and ATL closing in 3rd place.
Projected Eastern Conference Playoff Seeds – as of 03/25:
- Chicago
- Miami
- Orlando
- Philadelphia
- Atlanta
- Indiana
- Boston
- New York
Northwest Division: OKC still maintains the best mark in the Western Conference, but was overtaken by Chicago for tops in the NBA since last edition – over the last 6 weeks CHI went 17-3, while OKC was 16-6. To date the Thunder have played exactly the middle mark in the NBA as far as this particular SOS goes, but to close the season they have the 3rd easiest schedule – which clearly will work to their advantage. If the Thunder locks up home-court in the West that could really give them an extra edge vs. their more experience Western Conference counterparts – OKC has one of the best home-courts edges in the NBA, similar in my opinion to the Sacramento Kings in the early 2000’s. Top to bottom this is the best division in the NBA, with the last place Portland Trailblazers only 3 games under .500, which sets them only 3 games behind the 7th seed, and only 4.5 games behind the 4th seed! Currently Utah and Denver are tied for 2nd place three games over .500, with Minnesota one win ahead of Portland for fourth. Using SOS as a gage for performance down the stretch there is not much difference between all four teams – there are only four teams in the entire NBA with easier schedules than DEN, MIN & POR; while UTA checks in #14 in the NBA, only ~ 6 more instances of being stressed than their competition. There is also not a ton of difference between what each team has faced thus far, but MIN has definitely played the easiest schedule of the four. Based on that fact, the injury to Ricky Rubio, and the overall lack of experience when compared to the other three teams, if forced to make a selection on what teams will make the playoffs, I would say Minnesota has the biggest uphill battle as they have played the easiest schedule thus far, and are still only ½ game up on POR for 4th place. DEN appears to be in the best position if they can get Gallinari back soon.
Pacific Division: on 2/12 when we last published this analysis the LA Clippers had the lead in the Pacific Division, but with recent struggles, their tougher schedule, and the Lakers picking up their pace, LAL now hold a 2.5 game lead – and the two teams have nearly identical closing schedules. Here is the exact kind of spot where we can really see this analysis have an impact on games, and standings:
thru 2/12
|
2/13-3/25
|
Season thru 3/25
| ||||||
Record
|
SOS
|
Record
|
SOS
|
Record
|
SOS
| |||
LAC
|
17-8
|
14
|
10-13
|
38
|
27-21
|
52
| ||
LAL
|
16-12
|
14
|
14-7
|
7
|
30-19
|
21
| ||
SOS # represents instances of stress. We can see thru 2/12 both teams had essentially played the same SOS as far as this analysis goes, and the LAC held a 2.5 game edge on the LAL. Over the next 6 weeks the Clippers schedule ramped up a lot to say the least as those 38 instances ranked them with the toughest slate of games over that time period, while the Lakers only had 7 instances which ranked them #25 in the NBA. Not coincidentally, the Lakers picked up 5 games in the Clippers, flip flopping a 2.5 game deficit into a 2.5 game lead. Considering similar closing schedules it appears the Lakers will win this division, with the Clippers likely coming in 2nd and still securing a playoff spot.
Southwest Division: one through four this is likely the toughest division in the NBA (but with the Hornets taking up the 5th spot I give the edge to the Northwest Division overall as the toughest), as currently all four hold a playoff spot. The Spurs, who had the best record in the Western Conference last regular season, have extended their lead which now sits at 6.5 games over 2nd place Dallas – that essentially locks up the division with only about 20 more games remaining. SA hopes to have better success in the playoffs this year after having the #1 seed last year before losing to MEM in the first round. Although they are likely to win the division, hanging onto the #2 seed over the Lakers could be a challenge as historically rest has been key to the Spurs success – and to close this year they will face the 3rd most stressed incidents, 37 of them. Popovich loves resting his players, like NHL teams give goalies a night off after playing a couple in a row – so that will be something to monitor even more than usual from an ATS perspective over the last 4.5 weeks. The defending champ Mavericks have played the tougher portion of their schedule already, with only 9 instances of stress remaining which ranks them #20 in the NBA. I look for Dallas to add an additional layer of focus here over the final 20 games of the regular season, and bring some momentum with them into the playoffs. MEM, currently with a 1 game edge on HOU, faces the toughest schedule to close the regular season with a massive 43 more instances of stress – that will be tough to overcome, and considering HOU only has 13 remaining could boost the Rockets over the Grizzlies come the final standings. Because of that schedule it appears currently MEM could be in a tangle with UTA and DEN for the final two spots in the Western Conference playoffs.
Projected Western Conference Playoff Seeds – as of 03/25:
- Oklahoma City
- San Antonio
- LA Lakers
- Dallas
- LA Clippers
- Houston
- Denver
- Memphis
Quick take on some of my projected first round matchups, here are the top 3:
WC #1 Oklahoma City vs. #8 Memphis: I really doubt this is who the Thunder wants to see in the first round given last season’s great WC semifinal between the clubs. But the schedule makers did Memphis no favors this season as going into the year they had the second least amount of days rest for their games – and will close the season bearing the brunt of that. The Grizzlies are starting to get healthy and would be a tough out, especially in an opening round series for the #1 seed.
EC #1 Chicago vs. #8 New York: this potential series still holds from my last projection, and it would be fun just because it’s Bulls vs. Knicks. But make no mistake, this isn’t the 90s – but the Windy City still holds a big edge over their cronies from the Big City.
EC #2 Miami vs. #7 Boston: just recently this was the be all end all series in the Eastern Conference, now with the Celtics aging some this could potentially be a first round matchup. I highly doubt Miami wants to see the C’s in the opening round, especially considering other potential matchups with Indiana, New York, Atlanta or Philadelphia could be had. From day one I have said and still maintain Miami is winning it all this year, but this would make for an interesting first round series – one that MAY go 6, but likely to go 5, but with some bad blood and close games.
COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2012
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