**This week I will
do my best updating daily**
***FEEL FREE TO DISCUSS, LEAVE
COMMENTS, I WILL RESPOND TO EVERY ONE***
Here are the 31 auto-bids by conference [bold represents
already won conference tournament, if championship game is known but not played
yet that is listed, rest are projected winners]:
America East: Stony Brook vs. Vermont on Saturday,
March 10 @ 11am
Atlantic Ten: Temple
ACC: North Carolina
Atlantic Sun:
Belmont
Big 12: Kansas
Big East: Syracuse
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South:
UNC-Asheville
Big Ten: Ohio State
Big West: Long Beach State
Colonial: Drexel vs. VCU on Monday, March 5 @ 7pm
Conference USA: Memphis
Horizon: Valparaiso vs. Detroit on Tuesday, March 6 @
9pm
Ivy: Harvard (potential one game playoff on Saturday
if Penn beat Princeton Tuesday night)
MAAC: Fairfield vs. Loyola Maryland on Monday, March
5 @ 7pm
MAC: Akron
MEAC: Norfolk State
Missouri Valley:
Creighton
Mountain West: UNLV
Northeast: Long Island Brooklyn vs. Robert Morris on Wednesday,
March 7 @ 7pm
Ohio Valley:
Murray State
Pac 12: Washington
Patriot: Bucknell vs. Lehigh on Wednesday, March 7 @
7pm
SEC: Kentucky
Southern: Davidson vs. Western Carolina on Monday,
March 5 @ 9pm
Southland: Texas Arlington
SWAC: Mississippi Valley State
Summit: Oral Roberts
Sun Belt: Denver
West Coast: St. Mary’s vs. Gonzaga on Monday, March 5
@ 9pm
WAC: New Mexico
Here are the 27 teams I view as “in the field” as at-large
teams by conference:
America East: -
Atlantic Ten: St. Louis, Xavier
ACC: Duke, Florida State, Virginia
Atlantic Sun: -
Big 12: Missouri, Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State
Big East: Marquette, Georgetown, Louisville,
Cincinnati, Notre Dame
Big Sky: -
Big South: -
Big Ten: Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana
Big West: if Long Beach State was to lose in their
conference tournament they would receive a bid, thus eliminating one at-large
spot.
Colonial: loser of VCU/Drexel
Conference USA: -
Horizon: -
Ivy: -
MAAC: -
MAC: -
MEAC: -
Missouri Valley: Wichita State
Mountain West: San Diego State, New Mexico
Northeast: -
Ohio Valley: -
Pac 12: California, Arizona
Patriot: -
SEC: Florida, Vanderbilt
Southern: -
Southland: -
SWAC: -
Summit: -
Sun Belt: -
West Coast: loser of St. Mary’s/Gonzaga
WAC: -
That is 58 of the 68 teams that will comprise the field.
Here are the “bubble” teams by conference, of which 10 will
currently receive bids – but in some conference tournaments we will see upsets that
will reduce the # of these teams receiving a bid from 10 to likely somewhere
closer to 6. I have listed here each
team that has even the smallest of chances at receiving an at-large selection
without winning their conference’s auto-bid just to be thorough – teams will be
weeded out as the week goes on and teams lose in their conference tournaments:
America East: -
Atlantic Ten: if St. Bonaventure, LaSalle, Dayton,
UMass or St. Joseph’s (PA) was to reach the A10 Final they may have a case for
being one of last four teams into the field, obviously dependent on how other
conference tournaments play out.
ACC: Miami (FL), NC State. Both are likely to receive invites at this
point. Either could seal the deal for
certain by advancing to the semifinal round of the ACC Tournament, while both
could be in danger of barely missing out should they lose in the first round of
the ACCT.
Atlantic Sun: -
Big 12: Texas.
The Horns are likely to receive a bid right now, and could seal the deal
by beating Iowa State in the quarterfinal round of the Big 12 Tournament
Thursday.
Big East: South Florida, West Virginia. Both teams are likely to receive bids
currently, and I feel both would lock up an at-large with a win in their first
game of the BET. If Seton Hall or UConn
was to advance to the semifinal round of the BET they too would move themselves
into the conversation, but right now with 8-10 conference records they are 100%
on the outside looking in.
Big Sky: -
Big South: -
Big Ten: Purdue, Northwestern. The Boilers are likely in as an at-large, but
picking up only one win vs. the other 5 Big Ten teams that are likely to
receive invites has me placing them on bubble looking in. A win over Nebraska in the opening round of
BTT would be solid, and a good showing vs. Ohio State would lock them into a
spot. A loss to Nebraska and they will
need some help. If Northwestern was to
advance to the BTT semifinals they may receive consideration; if they beat
Michigan then Ohio State to reach the final they may have a case as being one
of the last four invites.
Big West: -
Colonial: -
Conference USA: Southern Mississippi. USM likely needs to advance to the CUSA Final
to receive consideration, and based on their small margin for error playing a
lot of close games during the season I do not see that happening.
Horizon: -
Ivy: if Harvard was to play in and lose a one game
playoff vs. Penn on Saturday they may still receive an at-large bid, but I do
not expect them to lose and not receive the auto-bid.
MAAC: Iona.
With the Gaels losing in the semifinals of their conference tournament I
do not think that will be enough for them to receive an at-large bid, but I
will still include the on the absolute fringe of the bubble – they will need A
LOT of help to grab a spot come Sunday.
MAC: -
MEAC: -
Missouri Valley: -
Mountain West: Colorado State. The Rams probably need to win the MWCT to
receive a bid, or at the very least reach the final for any hopes
whatsoever. Both scenarios unlikely in
my opinion – and even if they happened there appears to be too many teams in
between them and a bid to have a legit shot.
Northeast: -
Ohio Valley: -
Pac 12: Oregon, Stanford, UCLA, Colorado. All four of these teams at a minimum must
advance to the semifinal round of the P12T.
This is likely a four bid conference, with an outside chance at five –
but I feel that is unlikely with the upsets we will see this week. I have listed the teams in the order I
believe they are stacked in right now.
Stanford, UCLA, and Colorado most likely need to win the auto-bid; while
Oregon may sneak in if they reach the semifinals and show well in that spot.
Patriot: -
SEC: Alabama, Tennessee, Mississippi State. Alabama sits on a level above UT & MSU
and could have locked up a bid with a win over Ole Miss this past weekend, but
now must beat South Carolina in the first round of the SECT to remain
alive. Tennessee is the #2 seed and
receives a bye, which oddly enough may hurt them not picking up the extra
win. They at least need to win their
first game, facing either Ole Miss or Auburn.
Miss State has the most work to do and at least needs to win two games
including beating Vanderbilt to get firmly on the bubble.
Southern: if Davidson was to lose tonight they would
be on the bubble, but most likely would not receive an invite come Sunday.
Southland: -
SWAC: -
Summit: -
Sun Belt: with Middle Tennessee State losing in the
QF round of the SBT they are unlikely to receive an at-large bid on
Sunday. Had they advanced to the Final
and lost they would have been on the bubble.
West Coast: BYU.
The Cougars did themselves no help getting blown out by 20 to Gonzaga in
the semifinals. They still have a solid
RPI, but with two teams locked into bids from the WCC they may need too much
help come Sunday.
WAC: if New Mexico State loses in the final of the
WACT they may still be alive to receive an at-large, but would likely wind up
on the outside looking in.
Here is the order of at-large selections as we stand right
now. Just to reiterate, there are ten
open spots today – but that # will be reduced due to conference tournament
upsets – I currently project 6 of these teams will wind up making the dance,
with #7-10 being the dreaded “last four out”:
- Purdue
- Miami (FL)
- Texas
- South Florida
- Alabama
- West Virginia
- NC State
- Oregon
- BYU
- Tennessee
Multiple Bid Conferences (48 bids here from 11
conferences + 20 additional auto-bids = 68 teams)
BE: 8 ACC:
6 B10: 6 B12: 6 SEC: 5 P12: 4
A10: 3 MWC:
3 WCC: 3 COL: 2 MVC: 2
Team by Team variance vs. Lunardi @ espn.com
UConn: me
OUT, him IN
Seton Hall:
me OUT, him IN
Miami (FL):
me IN, him OUT
NC State:
me IN, him OUT
Northwestern:
me OUT, him IN
Tennessee:
me IN, him OUT
Mississippi State:
me OUT, him IN
VCU: me
IN, him OUT
Colorado State:
me OUT, him IN
Arizona:
me IN, him OUT
Oregon: me
IN, him OUT
Southern Mississippi:
me OUT, him IN
Today’s differences vs. Lunardi, and comments on past
version differences to see which direction either of us has gone:
Comparing each of
our 2/16 versions:
Illiniois:
I had them OUT, Lunardi had them IN – now both of us have them OUT. Check mark for me.
VCU: I had
them IN, Lunardi had them OUT and not even in his first 8 teams OUT. I still have them IN and feel very confident
as they have reached the Colonial Final, while Lunardi has them in his “first
four OUT” bucket currently. Still
undecided, but at the very least Lunardi has raised VCU a lot in his version.
Comparing each of
our 2/23 versions, disregarding two teams mentioned above:
Big East:
I had 9 teams receiving a bid, with the qualifier I expected it to wind up being
8 after a few conference tournament upsets.
I currently have 8 and believe all 8 will wind up receiving a bid – I
mentioned in last edition I barely had UConn in the field, but didn’t expect
them to hang onto a spot – and since the Huskies have a 8-10 conference record
they need to play deep into the BET as mentioned above to receive any
consideration. Lunardi had UConn in the
field back on 2/23, and still currently has them in on the 10 line. As mentioned in last edition I do not
understand that. USF I have had in my
bracket “pretty comfortably” as I quoted last edition, while Lunardi had them
as his “first four out” and has upgraded them now to receiving a bid. Lastly, Lunardi has Seton Hall in his field,
while I do not even list them as a true bubble team. Still a while to go but thus far it looks
like another check mark for me.
Northwestern &
Mississippi State: on 2/23 I had neither in the dance, and still do not
while Lunardi had both in the dance two weeks ago, and still has both. He has Northwestern in a play-in game for a
13 seed, while Miss St is “comfortably” in as an 11. To me, like UConn (who he also has in),
Northwestern going under .500 in league play has me keeping them out pretty
firmly – and that is unlikely to change unless either makes their conference
tournament final as mentioned above.
Mississippi State going only .500 in a poor SEC, along with a no-so-hot
RPI has me keeping them out too – but they are on my “bubble” as mentioned
above. It is still too early to
determine who is correct here.
Oregon: I
still have the Ducks technically in the tournament as of today, but after a few
conference upsets they are likely to be on the outside looking in without a few
wins of their own. Lunardi has upgraded
them from “next four out” to “first four out”, so he is moving more towards my
stance on the Ducks. Check mark for me.
Comparing current
versions, disregarding any teams mentioned above – quick comment on the
differences and reasons I am opposite his selection:
UConn:
8-10 conference record means OUT for me, despite strong RPI
Seton Hall:
8-10 conference record, huge loss @ DePaul to close regular season means OUT
for me
Miami (FL):
over .500 in conference, wins over Duke and Florida State means IN for me
NC State:
over .500 in conference has them IN right now, but when everything shakes out
they will likely barely miss receiving an invite
Northwestern:
8-10 conference record means OUT for me
Tennessee:
10-6 conference record, winning 8 of last 9, beat Florida twice has them IN for
me currently but they will likely miss out when it all shakes out
Mississippi State:
.500 in one of weaker power conferences, losing 5 of last 7 means OUT
for me currently – but they have a chance to improve their chances with solid
performance in SECT.
VCU: 27
wins in one of better mid-major conferences, avoided early round upset in
conference tourney, solid enough RPI has them IN for me
Colorado State:
8-6 record in mid-major conference, 10 losses, no key OOC wins, 4th
place in their conference has them OUT for me right now. On a good note they did manage to beat each
of the teams above them who are likely to dance, they just lost too many games
vs. teams below them for my liking. Strong
performance in MWCT will help boost their resume as their RPI is in line with
an at-large.
Arizona:
12-6 in conference play, 21 wins in power conference, won 7 of last 9 has them
IN for me but make no mistake they did not pick up any nice OOC wins, and with
a first game loss in Pac Ten tourney they could be in some trouble.
Oregon: 22
wins overall, 13-5 record in conference play, won 6 of last 7 has them picking
up one of last few spots right now, but that will probably mean no bid after a
few conference tourney upsets this week especially with a weaker than typical
RPI for an at-large, and no big OOC wins.
Southern
Mississippi: played their best ball earlier in the season as they lost
3 of 5 to close year. Weaker than
typical RPI for at-large team, few nice OOC wins, beat Memphis has them on my
bubble but well behind a few teams.
COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2012
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