NCAAB 2015: SBPI [SportsBoss Power Index] through Sunday February 8

Here is our third installment of the 2014-2015 College Basketball SBPI ratings covering action through Sunday February 8 (SUM is rating for team & can be compared to prior season’s in my Top 100 of last 12 year’s blog entry; RANK = rankings of each team’s SOS Adjusted performance; KP = Ken Pomeroy’s Rankings; BPI = ESPN’s Basketball Power Index Rankings; RPI = Ratings Power Index Rankings; SAG = Jeff Sagarin’s Rankings):

	ADJ RATINGS
Team	SUM	RANK		KP	BPI	RPI	SAG
Duke	412.5	1		8	7	4	4
Kentucky	408.1	2		1	1	2	1
Villanova	394.2	3		7	6	5	6
Arizona	392.5	4		3	5	7	7
Kansas	388.0	5		12	10	1	10
Louisville	385.1	6		11	8	12	9
Butler	382.9	7		18	19	17	18
Baylor	381.0	8		10	17	11	13
Wisconsin	371.5	9		6	4	6	3
Virginia	367.3	10		2	2	3	2
VCU	355.2	11		24	21	9	21
Utah	352.3	12		5	11	13	8
West Virginia	345.7	13		20	20	25	19
Florida	343.3	14		35	32
Wichita State	341.5	15		15	15	18	17
Oklahoma State	341.5	16		21	33	28	22
North Carolina	340.8	17		13	9	10	12
Providence	339.2	18				20	31
Georgetown	339.1	19		25	24	21	23
Xavier	336.7	20		26	23	34	26
Gonzaga	335.9	21		4	3	8	5
Oklahoma	334.1	22		9	13	15	11
UCLA	328.9	23
South Carolina	327.0	24
Iowa	325.7	25		27			27
Texas	324.7	26		22	29	31	20
Ohio State	323.5	27		14	12	33	15
Arkansas	318.8	28		30	25	24	28
Iowa State	314.9	29		19	18	14	16
Brigham Young	313.6	30			35
Georgia Tech	312.6	31
Seton Hall	310.6	32
Stanford	308.6	33		32	34		32
San Diego State	308.5	34		34		30	33
Yale	305.9	35
Arizona State	305.6	36

I have included the Top 36 teams in the SBPI this week & will continue that format going forward.  Why?  I figured there are 32 automatic bids & 36 at-large bids given out on Selection Sunday – so including my Top 36 here can give a good feel for if your team has what it takes to potentially earn an at-large come mid-March.

Here are additional teams of note that did not make the SBPI Top 36 but were ranked inside Top 36 by at least one of the other four sources:

#37 Michigan State (KP #28, BPI #26, SAG #25)

#40 Texas A&M (BPI #36, RPI #35)

#42 Purdue (SAG #35)

#45 Georgia (KP #33, BPI #22, RPI #22, SAG #34)

#47 Indiana (RPI #32, SAG #36)

#48 Maryland (BPI #31, RPI #16, SAG #29)

#49 Ole Miss (KP #29, BPI #30, RPI #36)

#57 Dayton (BPI #28)

#67 SMU (KP #23, BPI #27, RPI #22, SAG #30)

#72 Cincinnati (KP #31, RPI #29)

#78 Northern Iowa (KP #16, BPI #14, RPI #19, SAG #24)

#80 Colorado State (RPI #27)

#93 Notre Dame (KP #17, BPI #16, RPI #26, SAG #14)

#101 Stephen F. Austin (KP #36)

Next this week is the variance report that shows team’s movement over the last week.  Today we will show team’s that had a 40 spot or greater change in their ranking inclusive of all conferences:

Team	1-Feb	8-Feb	Change
North Carolina Central	145	202	(57)
Fresno State	137	178	(41)
Texas Christian	133	92	41

Next up let’s take a look where each of the current Top 36 in SBPI ranked in the past four week’s we have published:

Team	18-Jan	25-Jan	1-Feb	8-Feb
Duke	5	5	1	1
Kentucky	1	1	2	2
Villanova	3	4	3	3
Arizona	11	7	6	4
Kansas	2	2	5	5
Louisville	12	12	8	6
Butler	4	3	4	7
Baylor	9	6	7	8
Wisconsin	16	9	9	9
Virginia	10	14	13	10
VCU	6	8	10	11
Utah	14	11	12	12
West Virginia	15	15	18	13
Florida	19	16	15	14
Wichita State	7	10	11	15
Oklahoma State	13	17	22	16
North Carolina	17	18	16	17
Providence	20	20	21	18
Georgetown	36	25	23	19
Xavier	18	19	14	20
Gonzaga	8	13	20	21
Oklahoma	26	22	17	22
UCLA	34	28	24	23
South Carolina	32	24	19	24
Iowa	28	29	27	25
Texas	35	36	26	26
Ohio State	27	35	32	27
Arkansas	30	31	25	28
Iowa State	31	34	33	29
Brigham Young	21	23	31	30
Georgia Tech	40	38	35	31
Seton Hall	29	37	29	32
Stanford	33	30	30	33
San Diego State	22	21	34	34
Yale	24	39	37	35
Arizona State	50	33	38	36

Strength of conference & breakdown of Top 36 by conference:

RANK	CONFERENCE	AVG RATING	TOP 36
1	B12	317.5	7
2	BE	312.7	6
3	ACC	289.5	5
4	SEC	284.9	4
5	B10	284.1	3
6	P12	275.6	5
7	WCC	251.1	2
8	A10	244.1	1
9	MVC	227.7	1
10	HORIZON	218.8
11	AAC	216.2
12	MAC	215.9
13	MWC	208.6	1
14	BIG WEST	207.7
15	IVY	200.4	1
16	CUSA	189.2
17	OVC	180.9
18	CAA	177.2
19	SUMMIT	175.0
20	SUN BELT	173.9
21	SOCON	173.2
22	BIG SOUTH	171.6
23	PATRIOT	166.5
24	MAAC	164.8
25	SOUTHLAND	164.7
26	BIG SKY	163.4
27	NEC	152.3
28	AMER EAST	151.4
29	INDEPENDENT	150.0
30	WAC	147.4
31	ASUN	145.9
32	MEAC	138.9
33	SWAC	122.3

The Big 12 has taken over the top conference rank from the Big East with an average rating of 317.5 for the 10 teams in their conference.  By looking at the first matrix in this article we can see that 317.5 average rating would fall between the 28^th best team in country Arkansas & the 29^th best team in the country Iowa State.  

Next up let’s look at the Top 20 non-Power 6 (ACC, B12, B10, BE, P12, SEC) conference teams:

	ADJ RATINGS
Team	SUM	RANK		KP	BPI	RPI	SAG
VCU	355.2	11		24	21	9	21
Wichita State	341.5	15		15	15	18	17
Gonzaga	335.9	21		4	3	8	5
Brigham Young	313.6	30			35
San Diego State	308.5	34		34		30	33
Yale	305.9	35
Illinois State	290.4	41
Boise State	276.9	52
Richmond	272.3	55
Dayton	271.4	57			28
George Washington	270.0	60
Temple	269.0	61
Portland	267.4	62
Tulsa	266.9	63
La Salle	265.4	65
Buffalo	264.3	66
Southern Methodist	261.5	67		23	27	22	30
Saint Mary's	261.2	69
Harvard	260.0	71
Cincinnati	259.4	72		31		29

Examining this group closer as far as NCAA Tournament at-large bids go it’s unlikely any teams outside the Top 3 (VCU, Wichita State, and Gonzaga) would earn an at-large bid should they lose in their conference tournament – especially if that loss came before the championship game.  San Diego State, ranked 4^th in this matrix, still has a shot at earning that at-large should they lose in the MWC Tournament, but this is not a vintage Aztecs club of recent memory.  

Lastly here are the Bottom 10 teams according to College Basketball SBPI:

	ADJ RATINGS
Team	SUM	RANK
Maine	102.6	342
Liberty	102.4	343
UMBC	96.2	344
Stetson	93.1	345
Kennesaw State	91.3	346
Mississippi Valley State	86.4	347
Grambling State	84.2	348
Central Connecticut State	79.8	349
Central Arkansas	67.7	350
Florida A&M	63.5	351

Thanks again for reading, please feel free to:

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COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2015

2015 NCAA Tournament Bracketology – Projected Field thru action on 02/05/15

This is our third installment of bracketology for the 2015 NCAA Tournament and comes as we wrap up the first weekend of February.  

Last week my bracket only had one difference from ESPN's Joe Lunardi where I had in NC State in the field vs. him having two CUSA teams making the cut: Old Dominion as an at-large (I had ODU as CUSA automatic bid) and Western Kentucky as earning the CUSA automatic berth (I did not have Western Kentucky in mix for an at-large).

Now that we briefly looked back at last week’s difference (which we will do every week) let’s jump into the latest 2015 projection!  Below we breakdown each conference into three buckets initially (with a fourth bucket “life support” coming in our next installment along with a more detailed breakdown – see last year’s Bracketology entries to get a feel for next week’s template): 

1) Automatic Bid

2) Looking Good [teams highly likely to play well enough in the regular season to earn a bid]

3) Need Wins [teams that are firmly on the bubble and will need to play well to close their season]

**Teams are listed in the s-curve order I see them now within conference**

**To add some color to each team I will include their SBPI ranking through action on Thursday January 29.  For one bid leagues I will also show the SBPI ranking of the best team in the conference that was not selected as my automatic bid entrant to give a feel for their competition**

**Last key to remember when looking this over – I always lean towards INCLUDING teams in my breakdown that have any shot at earning a bid; some listed are extreme longshots but I would prefer including any potential candidates vs. adding them later out of blue.  Leveraging that idea further I will lean towards keeping teams in say “Need Wins” versus moving them up to “Looking Good” till I feel certain they are a lock to earn a bid – do not want to slide teams down levels, only up.  Many teams are closer to being left off completely versus moving up a level at this point in the season**

America East: Albany #212 (Stony Brook #115)

American Athletic: Cincinnati #57

                Looking Good: SMU #73

                Need Wins: Tulsa #63, Temple #59, Memphis #100, UConn #92

Atlantic Ten: VCU #11

                Need Wins: Dayton #69, George Washington #62, Davidson #61, Rhode Island #87, UMass #95

ACC: Duke #1

                Looking Good: Virginia #10, North Carolina #19, Louisville #8, Notre Dame #107

                Need Wins: Miami #52, NC State #35, Clemson #76, Pittsburgh #54

Atlantic Sun: North Florida #168 (Florida Gulf Coast #200)

Big 12: Kansas #4

                Looking Good: Iowa State #29, West Virginia #14, Oklahoma #18, Baylor #7

                Need Wins: Oklahoma State #17, Texas #28

Big East: Villanova #3

                Looking Good: Butler #5, Providence #21, Georgetown #24

                Need Wins: Seton Hall #31, Xavier #15, St. John’s #51

Big Sky: Eastern Washington #211 (Northern Arizona #164)

Big South: High Point #138 (Gardner-Webb #135)

Big Ten: Wisconsin #9

                Looking Good: Maryland #60, Indiana #45

                Need Wins: Michigan State #33, Iowa #25, Ohio State #27, Illinois #41, Purdue #48, Michigan #46, Nebraska #102, Minnesota #43

Big West: Long Beach State #82 (Cal Poly #75)

Colonial: William & Mary #106 (Northeastern #173)

Conference USA: Western Kentucky #96 (Old Dominion #80)

Horizon: Cleveland State #74 (Green Bay #83)

Ivy: Yale #36 (Harvard #81)

MAAC: Iona #166 (Canisius #185)

MAC: Buffalo #71 (Toledo #84)

MEAC: North Carolina Central #193 (Norfolk State #238)

Missouri Valley: Wichita State #13

                If WICHITA STATE does not win their conference tournament they would still RECEIVE a bid, thus taking a spot away from the at-large field.  The Shockers are currently 7-2 vs. RPI Top 100 teams.

                Need Wins: Northern Iowa #68

Mountain West: San Diego State #38

                If SAN DIEGO STATE does not win their conference tournament they would still RECEIVE a bid, thus taking a spot away from the at-large field.  The Aztecs are currently 5-4 vs. RPI Top 100 teams including a signature win over RPI #11 Utah earlier in the season.

                Need Wins: Colorado State #79, Boise State #56, Wyoming #195

Northeast: St. Francis NY #199 (St. Francis PA #205)

Ohio Valley: Murray State #131 (Eastern Kentucky #85)

Pac 12: Arizona #6

                Looking Good: Utah #12

                Need Wins: UCLA #20, Stanford #34, Oregon #90, Washington #121, Oregon State #113

Patriot: Bucknell #191 (Holy Cross #198)

SEC: Kentucky #2

                Looking Good: Arkansas #26, Georgia #42

                Need Wins: LSU #94, Texas A&M #40, Ole Miss #44, Tennessee #89, Alabama #47, Florida #16

Southern: Wofford #109 (Chattanooga #159)

Southland: Stephen F. Austin #98 (Sam Houston State #126)

SWAC: Texas Southern #236 (Southern #230)

Summit: Oral Roberts #98 (South Dakota State #158)

Sun Belt: Georgia Southern #149 (Georgia State #130)

West Coast: Gonzaga #23

                If GONZAGA does not win their conference tournament they would still RECEIVE a bid, thus taking one away from the current at-large pool. 

                Need Wins: St Mary’s #58, BYU #30

WAC: New Mexico State #141 (Chicago State #234)

FIELD: 68

AUTOMATIC BIDS: 32

LOOKING GOOD: 17 (unchanged)

Currently I project 49 of the 68 bids are earned. 

NEED WINS: 43 (unchanged)

That leaves 43 teams that are in the mix for 19 open bids. 

Keep in mind however that DOES NOT include the upsets we will see during Conference Tournament week where teams that are LOCKS from smaller conferences lose a game in their conference tournament and hence use an at-large bid on themselves.

For the remaining 19 open bids this is the way I see it currently, which will obviously be very fluid (listed in conference alphabetical order applying s-curve within conference): 

Tulsa (LAST FIVE IN)

Dayton

Miami, Fla

NC State (LAST FIVE IN)

Oklahoma State

Texas

Seton Hall

Xavier

St. Johns (LAST FIVE IN)

Michigan State

Iowa

Ohio State

Northern Iowa

Colorado State

UCLA

Stanford

LSU

Texas A&M (LAST FIVE IN)

Ole Miss (LAST FIVE IN)

FIRST FIVE OUT – alphabetical order by conference:

Temple

George Washington

Illinois

Purdue

Oregon

Multiple bid conferences (total of 46 bids in 10 conferences; 22 single bid conferences = 68 bids):

B12 (7)

BE (7): added St. John’s

ACC (7): lost Syracuse (self-imposed sanction)

B10 (6)

SEC (6)

P12 (4): added UCLA

AAC (3): added Tulsa & lost Temple

A10 (2): lost Davidson

MWC (2)

MVC (2)

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