A piece I wrote two weeks ago, finally getting around to posting. And will be adding an updated version sometime within the next few days.
College Football Top 15 heading into Week 6 games
I usually like to post more often on college football,
prefer being able to give a new set of rankings each week, but time has eluded
me for completing this task thus far during the 2011 season. But as we head into conference play, with
most of the out-of-conference action behind us, here is how I see the Top 15 –
keep in mind my rankings are based on how good I think the teams are – not
where I think they should be ranked right now because of their record, and not
where I think they will finish the season.
Purely based on talent, and how well they have played thus far through 5
games:
1. Oklahoma [4-0]: really a toss-up
for top spot in my rankings between the Sooners and the LSU Tigers but since OU
has Landry Jones, and LSU is rolling with Jarrett Lee, we’ll give the edge to
the Sooners at this point in the season.
OU has looked excellent thus far through 4 games picking up a nice road
win in Tallahassee in Wk3, sandwiched between bombings of Tulsa & Ball State,
along with a decent but not overly convincing win in Norman over Missouri. This team is led by a lethal offense
spear-headed by Landry Jones passing, Ryan Broyles & Kenny Stills
receiving, and Dominique Whaley rushing.
Big Red River Rivalry matchup this week vs. an over-rated Texas squad
won’t tell us much, but a tough close to the season with 4 of last 5 vs.
currently ranked teams will be key – especially Nov 19 @ Baylor, and last game
of the season Dec. 3 @ Oklahoma State, a matchup that may have more than just a
Big 12 title on the line.
2. LSU [5-0]: hard to argue there
is any team in America that has more big wins early in the season than the LSU
Tigers, who have handled 3 ranked teams in their first 5 games, with none of
those games in the friendly confines of Tiger Stadium (neutral vs. Oregon, @
Mississippi State, @ West Virginia).
There was concern heading into the season at the QB spot, even before
Jordan Jefferson was suspended for multiple games after a bar fight before the
season started. Jarrett Lee stepped in
and performed as needed – take care of the football, make passing plays when in
a bind, and be a leader. At some point
however, you have to think Lee will need to make some big plays in the passing
game for the Bayou Tigers to get through this season unscathed – will he be
able to step up? But truth is the
defense, which I think is best in America (sorry Tide fans), has made key play
after key play, led by the dynamic playmaking ability of Sophomore CB Tyrann
Mathieu who has 36 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles and 1 interception in
2011. Their conference slate is
extremely manageable outside the Nov. 5 showdown in Tuscaloosa vs. the Crimson
Tide – but at least they have a week off before making this trip.
3. Alabama [5-0]: the Tide have
looked every bit as impressive as the top 2 teams in the rankings, with a 30pt
average margin of victory through 5 games including three easy wins vs. teams
ranked at time of game. Bama and LSU are
almost clones of each other with strong stifling defenses, strong running
games, and inexperienced and not overly talented QB’s. RB Trent Richardson is one of the early
favorites to win the Heisman Trophy rushing for 622 yards on 96 carries
(6.1/carry) and 10 TD’s. For good measure
he has also caught 11 passes for another 148 yards and a touchdown. His production will go a long way in determining
how successful Alabama will be this season, especially vs. LSU in early
November. The schedule sets up nicely,
like LSU, facing only one more ranked team sans LSU, @ Auburn to close the
season.
4. Wisconsin [5-0]: the Badgers
have looked strong in all facets of the game, led by a bruising running game,
and transfer QB Russell Wilson. Wisky
checks in 10th in the country with 243 yards rushing per game, led
by the one-two punch of Montee Ball and James White. The early Christmas present of Russell Wilson
landing in Madison has produced a potent passing attack, something the Badgers
are usually lacking to be a true national title contender. The defense has also played well through the
first 5 games checking in at #2 in the country in points allowed @ 10.2, only
trailing Alabama. Two small concerns
about how “in the mix” they will be for a national title are the fact they
haven’t left Madison yet, and they have only played one ranked team, Nebraska,
who is over-rated in the polls but is still a decent squad. Their remaining schedule is also very
manageable, facing only one currently ranked team #19 Illinois (on the road). The other three road games are Michigan
State, Ohio State and Minnesota. They
also avoid Michigan and Iowa from the Legends division, at least during the
regular season. They may have what it
takes to make it through the regular season undefeated, but they then would
have to play in the inaugural Big Ten Championship Game, and also hope no other
non-SEC teams go undefeated or they may be on the outside looking in on the
National Championship Game.
5. Stanford [4-0]: the Cardinal
have steamrolled the competition through four weeks, seemingly not missing a
beat since losing HC Jim Harbaugh to the NFL.
Andrew Luck continues improving his stock, if that is even possible,
leading his team to a 34.3 average margin of victory thus far by featuring a
balanced attack ranking #32 in passing yards, and #31 in rushing yards through
4 games. Stanford only has 3 road games
left, having already throttled Duke and Arizona in Durham and Tucson,
respectively – and although they will be favored in all 3, Washington State and
USC will not be easy wins – or at least as easy as they handled Duke and
Zona. But they do still have 3
non-cupcake home games, facing Washington (who has already beat Cal at home and
beat Utah on road), Oregon (likely to decide the Pac 12 North winner), and Notre
Dame (last game of season, a BCS bid could be on the line for both
schools). Even with Luck and how well
they have looked so far it may be asking too much for the Cardinal to win out,
but another BCS appearance, maybe even a Rose Bowl bid is within reach – most
of which will ride on the Oregon game Nov. 12.
6. Clemson [5-0]: yes, the Clemson
Tigers ranked #6 so far – who would have thunk it!?! Give Dabo and Co. credit for the start to
their season in what many expected to be a rebuilding season of sorts. Sophomore QB Tajh Boyd has stepped in for the
much maligned Kyle Parker and played incredibly well for a first time starter,
completing 61.3% of his passes for 1459 yards, 14 TD’s/2 INT’s and a QB Rating
of 159.4. After Clemson started the
season struggling to put away a pair of lesser talented teams including FCS foe
Wofford, I do not think many if anyone was thinking this team would follow that
winning 3 straight over the defending National Champs Auburn, Florida State who
started the season in most people’s top 5, and perennial ACC Coastal Champ
Virginia Tech. Now Clemson is sitting at
5-0, atop the Atlantic Division, and looking for its first ACC Championship in
some 20 years. There are still many
landmines on the Orange Tigers schedule, including two big time road tilts @
Georgia Tech on Oct. 29, and @ South Carolina on Nov. 26. In past years it was also the games they
should have won that wound up costing them, so we still cannot dismiss games @
Maryland and vs. North Carolina either.
Even with all the success so far I cannot see this team winning out, but
a birth in the ACC Championship Game is certainly within reach, and probably
likely at this point considering the win over Florida State, who seems to be
the only real threat in the division. If
so, a rematch with either Georgia Tech or Virginia Tech would seem to be on the
horizon, with a BCS birth to likely the Orange Bowl on the line. Either way, this team looks like it has
finally found its man on the sidelines, and an exciting QB under center who is
only a Soph. – they will be a force to be reckoned with the next 2 seasons.
7. Georgia Tech [5-0]: this is
where the rankings take a step down, as the top 6 have been clearly the best in
college football thus far through 5 weeks – and these next few teams starting
with GT are a notch below. The Ramblin'
Wreck has been an offensive juggernaut so far as Paul Johnson and crew have the
triple option running on all cylinders, and a defense that is doing just enough
so far to win games. Tech leads the
country in rushing amassing 378.2 yards per game so far – yes that figure
includes games vs. Western Carolina and Middle Tennessee State, but MTS game
was on road, and they have also faced 3 BCS conference teams including one on
road – so that schedule, while certainly
not a death march, hasn’t been cupcake city either. The big question, as is always the case in
Atlanta, will be can GT pass the ball effectively enough when it has to –
because make no mistake, although the ground game has been incredible thus far,
there will be times when it will not be working at this high a level – there is
a reason they are the only BCS conference team that runs the triple option
currently – and how will Tevin Washington respond? So far so good: 31/54 57.4% 10TD/1INT Rating
260.7. But with only 54 attempts through
5 games, you have to believe at some point, in some game, the Jackets will be
down due to their mediocre defense, and be forced to pass the ball a little
more than they are comfortable with. The
schedule is brutal for ACC standards to close the season still having to play @
Miami, host Clemson and Virginia Tech, and the annual meeting with Georgia at
home to close the season. Hey, at least
three of those four are at the friendly confines of Bobby Dodd stadium, but not
sure GT is consistent enough on either side of the ball to win 10 regular
season games before the potential ACC Championship Game.
8. Oklahoma State [4-0]: the Pokes
have been superb on the offensive side of the ball, as was expected heading
into the 2011 campaign. Brandon Weeden
leads a passing game that checks in #1 in the country tallying 416 yards per
game, and Justin Blackmon has been as good as advertised with 38 receptions for
450 yards and 4 TD’s. Weeden at this
point is in the mix for Heisman consideration, while Blackmon was among the
favorites heading into the season but likely has to pick up the “big play” pace
if he hopes to attend the NY ceremony in December. Mike Gundy has done a heck of a job in
Stillwater, but is often overshadowed by Bob Stoops’ Sooners just down the road
– there will be no better way to steal some of the thunder than Gundy leading
his Cowboys to a win over OU in Stillwater on Dec. 3. State will clearly need some improved play
from their defense if they have any hopes of winning the Big 12, and potentially
playing in the National Championship Game as allowing 34 to Louisiana Lafayette
and 33 to Tulsa are just not numbers you see from the elite national title
contenders. As usual the Big 12 is deep,
with a handful of teams ranked in the top 15 range, and OSU has 4 games
remaining vs. currently ranked teams, but only one of those is on the road @
Texas Oct. 15. But road trips to
Columbia vs. Missouri, Lubbock vs. Texas Tech and even Ames vs. Iowa State will
be no walks in the park. The Pokes
control their own destiny for a Big 12 Title if they win out (they are likely
to be favored in all games outside Oklahoma), including beating the
aforementioned Sooners last game of the season.
Possible, but unlikely as their defense will not hold up against the
better offenses, and the offense themselves seems to make too many mistakes
against better defenses.
9. Oregon [4-1]: after a
disappointing effort to start the season vs. LSU in Jerry’s World, the Ducks
have been back to their usual selves amassing points and yardage in tons and
hammering opponents into misery. In the
last four games they have scored an average of 56ppg while allowing 18.3ppg,
and nice cool winning margin of 37.7ppg.
Granted, three of those games were in Autzen, and none of these games
were against any teams likely to accomplish much of anything this season, but
it showed they still have the juice and confidence to get the job done. Oregon checks in #2 rushing thus far amassing
312.6 yards per game, only trailing the run happy Yellow Jackets mentioned
above. Speaking of that ground game,
LaMichael James has returned for his junior year in Eugene and after a slow
start has picked it up eclipsing 200 yards rushing in each of his last 3 games,
two of which were against fellow Pac 12 members. For good balance, QB Darron Thomas has done a
good job passing the rock and seems to be improving by the week. On the season his rating is 159.4, and he has
thrown 10TD vs. 2INT – which is exactly what HC Chip Kelly wants from his man
under center – manage the game, hand the ball off to the punishing ground game,
and pass when needed without making mistakes – for good measure Thomas has
rushed for another 191 yards and 4 TD. Defensively
the Ducks are breaking in a lot of new inexperienced players, but they are talented
and improving each quarter learning on the job.
The Ducks have two games remaining vs. currently ranked teams, but the
real question is will anyone outside Stanford be able to score enough points to
take Oregon down? Seems unlikely from my
vantage point – the 3 toughest games remaining in my opinion come in a 3 week
stretch towards end of season: @ Washington Nov. 5, @ Stanford Nov. 12, and
hosting USC Nov. 19. Outside the
Stanford game Oregon will be favored in all their remaining games, likely
laying double digits. The Stanford
matchup will determine the Pac 12 North winner, who will likely host the South
winner in the inaugural Pac 12 title game in December with the winner either
going to the National Title game, or the Rose Bowl. The loser of the Oregon/Stanford game could
still potentially receive an at-large BCS bowl bid, especially with the non-AQ
schools that typically try and invade the party not looking quite as strong as
usual (though Boise State is likely a lock for one bid). Either way, Nov. 12 is the day of reckoning,
and ultimately will decide how successful this season will be for Oregon.
10. Michigan [5-0]: the Wolverines
have been impressive thus far under the new coaching staff led by HC Hoke, OC
Borges and DC Mattison. Yes, it’s true
they have only played one strong team in Notre Dame, and it took a comeback of
epic proportions to win that game; and yes its true they have not left the
friendly confines of the Big House as of yet – but it’s hard to argue the
improvements that have been made defensively allowing less points in 5gms so
far than they allowed vs. Mississippi State in a bowl game to close last
season. Denard Robinson continues
playing at an extremely high level and is in the mix to win the Heisman Trophy
as he has adapted ok to the new pro-style offense run by Borges, passing for
793 yards with a rating of 144.0 thru the air, and feasting once again via his
legs for another 603 yards. The defense
will be tested more as the season progresses, heading into conference play,
especially on the road. But if the
offense can continue playing at a high level, they just may be able to outscore
their remaining opponents and win the Legends division. The schedule certainly picks up from here on
out with road games @ Northwestern, Michigan State, Iowa and Illinois, along
with home tilts of note vs. Nebraska and Ohio State. But they will likely be favored in all but
one remaining game, so a birth in the inaugural Big Ten Championship game could
be in the cards, especially if they can split with Michigan State and Iowa on
the road.
11. South Carolina [4-1]: Spurrier
seemed to finally have all the stars aligned for the 2011 season with South
Carolina, but is has started somewhat rocky, including a home loss to Auburn in
Wk5. Signs of danger were already
present before that loss, maybe even before the season with Stephen Garcia, his
much maligned QB, continuing to find trouble off the field. Then the season started with Connor Shaw
under center, only to be pulled when the Cocks went down big to East Carolina
in their opener – Garcia led the comeback, but the team continued struggling in
the next 3 games with a pair of 3pt wins, and an uninspiring 21-3 win vs. Navy
at home. The one good thing is the SEC
East is still down and open for the taking, and maybe just maybe the Auburn
loss woke up SC for bigger things down the road. There is no arguing the talent on this team,
especially defensively led by the best defensive line in the nation – but can
the passing game compliment Mr. All Everything Marcus Lattimore to reach the
lofty goals set upon this team entering the season? The schedule is manageable to close the
season, with games vs. 3 teams that are currently ranked - @ Arkansas Nov. 5,
hosting Florida Nov. 12, and closing the season hosting Clemson Nov. 26. If they win out, which could happen being
that they will be favored in every game but maybe @ Arkansas, and win the SEC
Title game over Alabama or LSU, they still have a shot at playing in the National
Title game – but those are all big “if’s.”
I think right now Gamecock fans would settle for just winning the SEC
East for only the 2nd time in their history.
12. Auburn [4-1]: yes, the defending
National champs are checking in at #12 right now in this poll. Sure, they struggled in an opening week win
over Utah State on the Plains, yes it took a goal line tackle in Wk2 to beat
Mississippi State at home, yes they lost by double digits @ Clemson, and yes
they struggled some to put away a weak Florida Atlantic team – but they won 3
of those 4 games which is all that matters, and followed that up with a big win
@ South Carolina in Wk5. It was going to
take some time for Gene Chizik and his team to get up to speed this season
following the loss of a ton of key players from last year’s championship team,
but they are getting better by the week, and will be a force to be reckon with
as the season progresses. Michael Dyer
and Onterio McCalebb lead a dual headed rushing attack behind an offensive line
that is improving, and the defense has improved in every week allowing less
points then the week before. Yes, QB
Barrett Trotter will need to play better, especially throwing fewer
interceptions and the schedule will toughen up some – but this is Auburn, the
defending national champs – the talent is in the cupboard, it just needs to
come out and get some reps. The Tigers
face a BRUTAL schedule to close the season facing 4 ranked teams, 3 in the
current top ten. Last week at South
Carolina started a four week gauntlet of @ SCAR, @ ARK, FLA, @ LSU…yikes,
welcome to the SEC. They also still must
travel to Athens to face the Bulldogs, and close the season hosting a revenge
minded Alabama Crimson Tide. It’s hard
to envision a scenario where AU wins the West, but they should remain
competitive in most games, with the dividends to this season paying off next
year.
13. Florida State [2-2]: a two loss
team ranked #13, ahead of an undefeated Boise State and Texas? The answer is yes, as this poll is about
talent and where teams DESERVED to be ranked right now, not looking at 2 losses
and automatically pushing their rating lower than their true talent. FSU has lost a pair of games, to #1 Oklahoma
and #6 Clemson – both games where their QB EJ Manuel didn’t finish or play at
all, and the latter on the road. If
Manuel doesn’t go down in the OU game do they have a chance? Do they win the Clemson game in Death
Valley? We will never know, but we do
know they are stacked with talent on both sides of the ball, and when everyone
is healthy they are a team that clearly will be in the ACC mix. The Noles are not back to their old selves,
the 1990’s flashy overly talented teams – but they are attempting to regain
that swagger under 2nd year coach Jimbo Fisher – who is bringing in
a ton of talent since taking over for legend Bobby Bowden. The key to FSU having a successful close to
their season will be the health of Manuel, along with improving a running game
that is struggling so far because of poor blocking, and under production from
their backs. The defense is stout, and
is full of playmakers – but the offense needs to pull its own weight because
the defensive unit isn’t quite to the level of an LSU or Alabama. It’s going to be tough for the Seminoles to
get back to the ACC title game as they trail Clemson by 1.5 games already
having lost to the Tigers, but they definitely have a more favorable remaining
conference slate than Clemson – then they have the big time in-state rivalry
game with the Gators in the Swamp to close the season. It is not out of the realm of possibility,
matter of fact I think it is likely that FSU wins their remaining ACC games and
closes their conference season at 7-1, but it will still take two losses from
Clemson to win the Atlantic. More likely
is their game with Florida decides their fate as an at-large BCS team – a win
there and a season record of 10-2 with losses to Clemson and Oklahoma may get
them that coveted at large BCS bid.
14. Boise State [4-0]: let’s be
honest here, this is not the BSU team that we have seen the last few
seasons. I know they opened the season
with a nice win over Georgia in the Georgia Dome, essentially a road game for
the orange and blue – but how good is Georgia – UGA looks like a 7-5 maybe 8-4
type team. And that game was played very
close statistically – stats and margin of victory are very important to a Boise
State club as those are the metrics many use to attempt to gauge how good the
team is since they are not facing top level competition really at all during
regular season. The three games
following the UGA matchup have been less than inspiring victories over the
likes of Toledo, Tulsa and Nevada.
Kellen Moore is clearly the real deal – he is a lock to be invited to NY
for the Heisman ceremony, and a likely first round draft pick – but his numbers
haven’t been as good since losing star wideouts Titus Young and Austin
Pettis. The defense has yielded ~ 15ppg
the last 3 outings, nothing to sneeze at, but last year they would have allowed
15 points total over that same span vs. that competition. And the worst part for Boise is they will not
face anyone that is highly regarded for the rest of the season, even with the
jump to the MWC. TCU this year is not
TCU from the last few years, San Diego State is not the same team with Brady
Hoke roaming the Michigan sidelines, and while Air Force is a decent squad, it
is not exactly resume bolstering material.
I see Boise State running the table this year but once again, not being
invited to the big game. Only way an
undefeated Boise State would have a shot in my opinion (also assuming the SEC
winner gets one invite to the Championship Game) is if multiple BCS conference
teams like Oklahoma and Wisconsin lost twice – one loss BCS conference teams
will get the edge over Boise when it comes down to it at season end. And after this year Kellen Moore will leave,
and Boise you would figure would take at least one step back towards their
goals of winning a national championship.
15. Florida [4-1]: how about this
for a trifecta – host #3 Alabama, travel to Baton Rouge to face LSU the following
week, then for good measure round that out with a trip to the defending
national champs Auburn. Then, for fun, let’s
play @ South Carolina, and close the season vs. Florida State. That is what the Gators face under first year
coach Will Muschamp – welcome back to the SEC Will! The Gators brought in a new coaching staff
for the 2011 season, headlined by previously mentioned HC Muschamp, and OC
Charlie Weis. The problem for the
offense though has been the play at QB – John Brantley, now a Sr. never morphed
into the player the recruiting services and Florida thought he would become
when he signed. Now he is banged up with
an ankle sprain and true Fr. Jeff Driskel or Jacoby Brissett will take the
reins when the Gators travel to LSU – welcome to the SEC Freshmen. At least the offense has a great one-two
punch at RB in Jeff Demps and Chris Rainey who are both explosive game-changers. The defense has a lot of fresh faces as well,
and has played well thus far in the early part of the season – but really only
faced two solid QB’s and teams in Tennessee and Alabama – played well against
Tennessee, not so hot vs. Alabama – and keep in mind both of those games were
in the Swamp. It’s a brutal schedule as
mentioned for the Gators this season, and clearly their end of season record
will not truly represent the kind of talent and team they have – they are
definitely a notch below the ultra talented teams of the mid to late 00’s, but
we believe they are on the fast track to reaching that status sooner than later.
Expect a 7-5 to 8-4 finish and
borderline top 25 ranking at season’s end – but better get the Gators now
because in a year or two, it won’t be happening.
©
The SportsBoss 2011
On
the outside looking in:
16. Arkansas
[4-1]
17. Texas
[4-0]
18. West
Virginia [4-1]
19. Kansas
State [4-0]
20. Baylor
[3-1]
