MNF Preview

Here is a preview of Monday Night Football I wrote, which will be posted later today on ESPN.com.

Line opened at NYJ -9.5, I opened this at NYJ -6.38. Vegas definitely made an adjustment based on the Moore for Henne QB move, which likely dropped Miami down one level (worth 1.5-2pts), hence explaining the variance. Game has been bet down to NYJ -6.5, strong move passing the key # of 7. Typically we do not see that kind of move.

I didn't injury adjust anything as far as either team is concerned because my analysis has MIA with the #31 passing game in the NFL (only STL worse) vs. the 7th toughest schedule vs. passing defenses. If there is one area the NYJ have showed up this season it is pass defense, checking in at #2 (only HOU better) - but keep in mind the Jets have put those numbers up vs. the 7th easiest schedule vs passing offenses, something that shouldn't change tonight.

Overall thru 5 weeks NYJ are rated #21 performance wise (#25 offense, #5 defense), vs. the 6th toughest schedule. MIA checks in at #28 performance wise (#28 offense, #31 defense) vs. the toughest schedule in the NFL. MIA has faced the 2nd toughest schedule vs. passing offenses and rushing offenses (meaning only one team has played a tougher schedule vs. good rushing teams [BUF] and one other has played a tougher schedule vs. good passing teams [CHI]); the only area they have faced some weaker competition is vs. rushing defenses where they check in vs #22 rush defenses. The only key area that stands out with the Jets is they have faced the #2 schedule vs rushing defenses, explaining some of the frustration they and their fans have endured as far as rushing performance.

In my rankings model I have a medium to large edge to the Jets, exclusively driven by the strength of their defense vs Miami's offense. In my averages model I have a small edge to the Jets mostly driven by both teams passing games. In my regression analysis I have the Jets with a medium to large edge, mostly driven by Miami's weak passing defense. Lastly in my home/away model the Jets have a medium edge, a lot of which was driven by the Jets pounding of the Jags earlier in the season.

The Jets come in being outplayed in 4 of 5 games in my numbers, only posting a winning performance in Wk2 vs Jacksonville. MIA comes in outplaying their opponent in only one game, Wk3 @ Cleveland, but is well rested off a bye. Also a key ATS trend is MIA is 15-6 ATS as a road dog the last 3+ years, and have won 12 of the 21 SU - both strong numbers for road teams.

At home, on Monday night, I expect a massive effort from the Jets vs. their rival. Their defense has not played well so far on the season, and there is no better way to get back on track than vs. Miami and their new QB, Matt Moore. I see the Green Wave pummeling the Fish defensively, NYJ finally get their running game going behind Shonn Greene, and Mark Sanchez makes a few plays down the field for a comfortable Jets win. Monday night will be a struggle for Miami.© 2011 The SportsBoss