Thursday, January 21, 2016

NBA 2015-2016: SportsBoss Power Index [SBPI] thru January 20th

Here is second initial installment of the NBA SBPI [SportsBoss Power Index] for the 2015-2016 season.  As a reminder this model first uses the Four Factors analysis as a basis to measure team effectiveness & efficiency in key statistical areas followed by filtering that data into a regression formula that properly weights the impact of each statistic before being finalized by an SOS adjustment.  Here is where each team stands through Wednesday January 20th:

HOME
ROAD
Projected Record
Playoff Seeds
Team
RATING
RATING
Wins
Losses
West
East
San Antonio
107.6
103.1
73
9
1
Golden State
105.2
100.7
72
10
2
Okla City
100.5
96.5
59
23
3
L.A. Clippers
98.7
95.7
55
27
4
Cleveland
99.0
95.0
57
25
1
Boston
97.0
94.5
47
35
5
Detroit
97.0
94.0
48
34
4
Atlanta
96.1
93.1
49
33
3
Toronto
96.0
93.0
51
31
2
Indiana
95.9
92.9
47
35
6
Orlando
93.3
90.8
42
40
8
Memphis
93.7
90.7
44
38
5
Charlotte
93.6
90.6
40
42
Washington
92.5
90.5
41
41
Miami
93.2
90.2
43
39
7
Dallas
93.0
90.0
44
38
Utah
92.1
89.6
37
45
7
Sacramento
90.2
88.2
36
46
8
Houston
90.5
88.0
38
44
6
Portland
90.4
87.9
35
47
Chicago
90.5
87.5
41
41
Milwaukee
90.1
87.1
34
48
New York
90.0
87.0
37
45
New Orleans
88.7
86.2
29
53
Denver
88.0
86.0
31
51
Minnesota
87.6
85.6
26
56
Phoenix
87.1
85.1
26
56
Brooklyn
85.6
83.6
22
60
Philadelphia
82.6
80.6
13
69
L.A. Lakers
82.0
80.0
15
67

These are the actual power ratings I would use when setting lines on a daily basis. 

The San Antonio Spurs maintain the top spot in the ratings but the East continues to strengthen it’s depth as seen by the playoff seedings & each team’s corresponding rating.

The “Projected Record” column is calculated by:
1.     Taking a teams current record
2.     Adding wins over remainder of the season based on their regression analysis of strength

For example, walking through the San Antonio Spurs calculation:
                  They are currently 36-6 & are projected to play .934 ball for the remainder of the season.  Taking that .934 times their 40 remaining games yields 37.4 more wins; add the 36 & 37.4 and you get 73.4 wins, which is shown in the projected wins column.

Now remember there are obviously additional variables that could be in play when projecting a team’s final record such as sitting players, home/road splits – but this formula is at worst a good proxy for projecting playoff seeds.


Email me directly: boss@thesportsboss.com
Visit my website: www.thesportsboss.com
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COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2016
Posted by The SportsBoss at 1:48 PM 0 comments

Wednesday, January 13, 2016

NCAA FOOTBALL 2015: FINAL REPORT According to SBPI [SportsBoss Power Index]

Here is the FINAL CFB SBPI installment of the 2015 season – and once again the SBPI was right on target having Alabama win the National Championship (ranked #1); in addition the National Championship Game itself featured #1 vs. #2 in SBPI.  This year’s champ Alabama’s 298.6 grade checks in as the 4th best mark over the last 7 seasons.  To read more about how I calculate my ratings look back at this entry that also has links to other entries surrounding this topic.

Without further ado here are the Top 25 rankings through action the National Championship Game.  The columns OFF/DEF/TOTAL represent where each team statistically ranks across 128 teams in the FBS; we also included Sagarin’s rankings which can be used as a solid comparison tool followed by each team’s SOS adjusted RATING and RANK:

RECORD
UNIT RANKS RAW
RANKS
SOS ADJ #'s
WINS
LOSS
Team
OFF
DEF
TOTAL
SAG
RATING
RANK
14
1
Alabama
24
2
2
1
298.6
1
12
2
Stanford
5
48
11
5
289.9
2
14
1
Clemson
8
8
1
2
283.2
3
11
2
Oklahoma
3
23
6
4
263.2
4
12
1
Ohio State
31
7
7
3
245.1
5
10
3
Michigan
53
6
9
9
239.4
6
11
2
TCU
5
46
10
7
236.8
7
10
3
Mississippi
16
42
13
6
236.4
8
8
5
Arkansas
1
78
21
15
232.0
9
9
4
Tennessee
35
21
14

10

227.9
10
9
4
Boise State
23
5
4
37
227.1
11
12
2
Iowa
40
15
12
22
226.4
12
9
3
LSU
40
36
31
13
225.4
13
10
3
Notre Dame
22
52
32
11
219.6
14
7
6
Washington
61
15
32
25
215.7
15
10
3
Baylor
5
61
18
8
214.8
16
13
1
Houston
12
28
8
21
214.6
17
10
3
Georgia
58
12
20
23
214.6
18
8
6
USC
21
74
43
14
214.3
19
12
2
Michigan State
46
31
34
17
213.6
20
8
5
West Virginia
38
36
30
27
213.5
21
10
3
Wisconsin
88
2
14
19
212.9
22
10
3
Florida State
48
23
25
12
212.7
23
9
4
Mississippi State
29
51
37
18
212.7
24
11
3
North Carolina
10
63
23

16

211.9
25
10
3
Utah
55
23
35
24
211.5
26
11
3
San Diego State
35
4
5
44
210.2
27
8
5
Louisville
71
17
37
34
207.5
28
8
5
South Florida
27
29
14
56
207.3
29
9
4
BYU
63
14
25
38
206.1
30
11
2
Appalachian State
10
9
3
59
204.8
31
9
4
Memphis
8
69
25
47
203.4
32
10
4
Florida
100
12
50
28
200.4
33
8
5
Pittsburgh
48
50
48
39
198.4
34
7
6
North Carolina St
46
39
35
49
197.6
35
10
4
Temple
68
10
23
51
195.3
36
8
5
Texas A&M
72
33
55
33
194.6
37
6
7
Arizona State
38
69
57
40
194.3
38
10
4
Bowling Green
12
60
21
52
193.2
39
10
2
Toledo
27
36
18
36
192.3
40
8
5
UCLA
44
57
53
30
191.9
41
8
5
California
19
99
64
32
189.7
42
9
4
Oregon
15
108
62
20
189.4
43
10
3
Oklahoma State
33
78
60
26
188.0
44
8
6
Air Force
29
42
29
72
187.7
45
3
9
Boston College
118
1
51
82
187.1
46
6
7
Nebraska
50
55
57
41
186.3
47
12
2
Western Kentucky
3
74
25
35
181.9
48
10
3
Northwestern
112
10
65
43
181.3
49
7
6
Virginia Tech
63
45
60
45
181.3
50
3
9
Georgia Tech
72
52
69
53
179.7
51
8
5
Western Michigan
2
92
42
62
178.7
52
11
2
Navy
20
77
43
31
178.0
53
9
5
S Mississippi
17
42
14
69
177.9
54
7
6
Penn State
104
20
66
50
176.8
55
7
6
Texas Tech
14
116
70
46
174.1
56
6
7
Indiana
17
103
66
68
173.9
57
9
4
Washington State
51
82
68
42
172.6
58
6
7
Utah State
88
26
57
73
171.6
59
7
6
Central Michigan
54
40
46
83
170.7
60
7
6
Cincinnati
31
87
62
74
167.7
61
5
7
Illinois
102
31
70
70
167.6
62
8
5
Miami (Florida)
72
61
73
48
167.2
63
7
6
Auburn
85
64
80
29
165.4
64
4
8
Vanderbilt
117
17
77
78
165.0
65
7
6
Middle Tennessee
26
64
45
84
164.1
66
7
6
Colorado State
40
54
47
88
163.7
67
9
4
Louisiana Tech
24
55
37
67
163.7
68
5
7
San Jose State
44
57
53
89
163.4
69
8
5
Ohio
52
48
48
90
160.2
70
9
4
Arkansas State
40
46
40
75
159.9
71
6
7
Minnesota
107
41
80
63
155.9
72
9
4
Georgia Southern
72
33
55
60
154.9
73
10
3
Marshall
57
26
41
65
152.5
74
8
5
Duke
58
78
75
57
152.2
75
8
5
Akron
85
22
52
93
151.3
76
4
9
Colorado
85
71
83
85
150.2
77
7
6
Arizona
35
113
83
54
149.6
78
5
7
East Carolina
72
71
76
79
147.9
79
8
6
Northern Illinois
66
64
72
80
142.1
80
6
7
Connecticut
113
30
82
86
141.6
81
5
7
Missouri
126
19
88
61
140.8
82
4
8
Virginia
82
98
95
71
138.2
83
5
7
Texas
91
96
98
55
137.4
84
4
8
Rutgers
63
108
91
92
136.3
85
5
7
Kentucky
106
64
94
77
131.7
86
3
9
South Carolina
94
96
101
64
131.1
87
7
6
Nevada
58
86
77
94
131.1
88
3
9
UNLV
68
88
86
101
131.0
89
3
9
Iowa State
80
114
104
66
128.6
90
3
9
Maryland
109
83
103
81
128.2
91
6
7
Georgia State
61
74
73
99
128.2
92
2
10
Army
66
85
79
111
127.9
93
6
7
Tulsa
34
121
89
91
124.2
94
5
7
Buffalo
91
64
85
100
121.2
95
4
8
Syracuse
97
102
104
76
120.6
96
7
6
New Mexico
78
91
87
97
119.4
97
3
9
Wake Forest
120
57
106
87
119.4
98
3
9
Kent State
123
33
91
118
118.4
99
4
8
Troy
94
83
89
98
116.5
100
3
9
Florida Atlantic
105
78
97
103
106.5
101
6
7
Kansas State
108
103
115
58
106.4
102
5
7
Flor International
82
95
93
105
105.5
103
2
10
SMU
82
119
113
104
104.5
104
5
7
Rice
56
114
95
110
104.1
105
3
9
UTSA
97
92
100
114
103.6
106
4
8
Idaho
68
117
106
112
98.7
107
4
8
LouisianaLafayette
90
103
101
108
97.7
108
2
10
Wyoming
78
120
112
115
97.7
109
2
10
Purdue
110
111
118
95
96.8
110
5
7
UTEP
99
89
99
120
96.1
111
3
9
Massachusetts
102
103
109
109
93.3
112
3
9
Miami (Ohio)
122
71
110
119
92.0
113
5
7
South Alabama
113
92
114
107
90.2
114
3
9
New Mexico State
72
121
110
124
90.1
115
5
7
Old Dominion
100
103
108
121
88.2
116
3
9
Ball State
91
125
119
106
83.9
117
3
9
Tulane
118
99
121

113

83.2
118
1
11
Eastern Michigan
94
117
116
127
81.6
119
3
9
Fresno State
116
108
122
102
81.3
120
2
10
Charlotte
120
89
117
128
78.1
121
3
9
Texas State
80
128
119
117
76.2
122
2
10
Oregon State
113
124
124
96
74.9
123
2
11
Louisiana-Monroe
124
101
123
125
65.9
124
1
11
North Texas
110
127
125
126
60.6
125
3
10
Hawai'i
127
112
126
122
57.1
126
0
12
Kansas
125
123
127
116
51.4
127
0
12
UCF
128
126
128
123
32.1
128

Currently there is 87% correlation between SBPI ranking & wins & that correlation has increased each week

The 2015 UCF squad graded out as the absolute worst team since I have developed the SBPI ratings system

Here is the way the conferences broke down by order of strength:

SEC
P12
IND
ACC
B10
B12
AAC
MWC
MAC
CUSA
SUN

Breakdown of Top 25 by conference:

AAC
1
ACC
3
B10
5
B12
4
CUSA
0
IND
1
MAC
0
MWC
1
P12
3
SEC
7
SUN
0




Thanks again for reading, please feel free to:
Email me directly: boss@thesportsboss.com
Visit my website: www.thesportsboss.com
Follow me on Twitter: @SportsBoss



COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2016
Posted by The SportsBoss at 1:39 PM 0 comments
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