Now that we are at least 10 games into the season for each
team let’s take a first glance at the NBA SBPI [SportsBoss Power Index]. As a reminder this model uses the Four
Factors analysis as a basis to measure team effectiveness & efficiency in
key statistical areas. New this season I
have added in a solid metric for SOS, along with adjusting the ratings to
better tie into my indices in other sports where higher marks are better scores
(if you look back at last season I used the reverse for the NBA where lower
grades were better). Here is where each
team stands through last night’s action:
Let’s take a closer look at the above ratings, and provide
some color behind a few teams that “stand out” for seemingly rating higher or
lower than expected:
Memphis:
the Grizzlies have the best record in the NBA & also lead the SBPI by a
decent margin. Right now I would have
them as approximately 4pt favorites over the Rockets on a neutral floor – these
teams met in Memphis recently with game going off as Memphis -4.5; my model
would have set that # closer to -8.5 & the Grizzlies went on to paste the
Rockets by 20+. Their biggest weakness
at this point is EFG%, an area they figure to struggle in more times than not
because of the makeup of their roster.
That is the precise reason the Grizzlies are an annual tough out in the
playoffs but at the end of the day they fail to score enough to truly challenge
the elite in the Western Conference.
Toronto:
the Raptors are the only Eastern Conference team with 2 losses or fewer, and
they narrowly handled a depleted Grizzlies roster last night at home. With the injury losses Indiana has suffered,
the slow growth the Cavaliers figure to endure & the uncertain status of
Bulls PG Derrick Rose this season the Raptors may be very well positioned come
May to make a run at their first NBA Finals berth.
Western
Conference: of the top 15 teams in the above ratings 11 are from the
West, and that does not include Phoenix or Oklahoma City, a pair of teams that
clearly have designs on making a playoff run this season.
Minnesota:
the only sub .500 team in the Top 13 are the Wolves & they have been
steadily dropping in the ratings since PG Ricky Rubio went down early this
season. They must ratchet up their defense
a FEW levels to continue competing in the rugged Western Conference.
Oklahoma City, Philadelphia,
New York: the three teams with the worst record in the NBA check in as
the three worst in the SBPI as well. Now
we know OKC will be a threat very shortly once PG Russell Westbrook & F
Kevin Durant return from injury – but the other two figure to be among the
worst handful of teams all season long, with the Sixers in prime position to
secure the top pick in the 2015 NBA Draft.
Next let’s dive into the Power Ratings which use the
Performance Rankings as a base:
|
Team
|
Home PR
|
Away PR
|
|
Memphis
|
117.5
|
113.0
|
|
Toronto
|
113.2
|
109.2
|
|
Portland
|
112.9
|
108.9
|
|
Dallas
|
113.3
|
109.3
|
|
Golden
State
|
112.1
|
108.1
|
|
Atlanta
|
108.1
|
104.1
|
|
Washington
|
111.8
|
107.8
|
|
New
Orleans
|
110.5
|
106.5
|
|
Milwaukee
|
109.5
|
105.5
|
|
San
Antonio
|
112.1
|
108.6
|
|
Charlotte
|
109.2
|
106.2
|
|
Houston
|
112.0
|
109.0
|
|
Sacramento
|
111.6
|
108.6
|
|
Utah
|
110.2
|
107.2
|
|
L.A.
Clippers
|
111.6
|
109.1
|
|
Phoenix
|
106.7
|
104.2
|
|
Miami
|
107.9
|
105.4
|
|
Brooklyn
|
106.2
|
103.7
|
|
Minnesota
|
110.6
|
108.1
|
|
Indiana
|
108.7
|
106.7
|
|
Oklahoma
City
|
104.1
|
102.1
|
|
Chicago
|
109.4
|
107.4
|
|
Cleveland
|
110.3
|
108.3
|
|
Denver
|
106.1
|
104.1
|
|
Orlando
|
104.8
|
102.8
|
|
Boston
|
108.8
|
106.8
|
|
Detroit
|
106.4
|
104.4
|
|
New
York
|
102.1
|
100.1
|
|
L.A.
Lakers
|
109.0
|
107.0
|
|
Philadelphia
|
102.2
|
100.2
|
These are actual Power Ratings that can be used when
handicapping nightly matchups. Using
those ratings as a base let’s look closer at Thursday night’s slate:
LA Clippers -3.5 at Miami: my numbers above set this line at
LAC -1 so there is a bit of value on the #.
It may be a tough spot for the Clippers coming across the country last
night to face Orlando, and coming back the next night to face the Heat.
Chicago at Sacramento -1.5: my numbers above set this line
at SAC -4 so there is again a bit of value on the #. I typically target more than 1 possession of
variance to feel very solid about getting “value” on a number. But this is also a similar spot to above
where my numbers favor the home team some, and their opponent is in the midst
of an opposite coast trip.
Since it’s far too early in the season to use performance
and its impact on Pythagorean record we will skip that portion until the
numbers settle in some & they can be used to better forecast. Instead let’s take a look at where each team
stands ATS wise thus far:
|
ATS RECORD
|
|||
|
Team
|
WIN
|
LOSS
|
%
|
|
Dallas
|
9
|
3
|
75.0%
|
|
Milwaukee
|
9
|
3
|
75.0%
|
|
Portland
|
8
|
3
|
72.7%
|
|
Golden
State
|
7
|
3
|
70.0%
|
|
Indiana
|
7
|
4
|
63.6%
|
|
Toronto
|
7
|
4
|
63.6%
|
|
Sacramento
|
7
|
4
|
63.6%
|
|
Orlando
|
8
|
5
|
61.5%
|
|
Utah
|
7
|
5
|
58.3%
|
|
Miami
|
6
|
5
|
54.5%
|
|
L.A.
Lakers
|
6
|
5
|
54.5%
|
|
Oklahoma
City
|
6
|
6
|
50.0%
|
|
Houston
|
6
|
6
|
50.0%
|
|
Memphis
|
6
|
6
|
50.0%
|
|
Minnesota
|
5
|
5
|
50.0%
|
|
New
Orleans
|
5
|
5
|
50.0%
|
|
Boston
|
5
|
5
|
50.0%
|
|
San
Antonio
|
5
|
6
|
45.5%
|
|
Chicago
|
5
|
6
|
45.5%
|
|
Phoenix
|
5
|
6
|
45.5%
|
|
Charlotte
|
5
|
6
|
45.5%
|
|
Atlanta
|
4
|
6
|
40.0%
|
|
Washington
|
4
|
6
|
40.0%
|
|
Cleveland
|
4
|
6
|
40.0%
|
|
Brooklyn
|
4
|
7
|
36.4%
|
|
Philadelphia
|
4
|
7
|
36.4%
|
|
Detroit
|
4
|
8
|
33.3%
|
|
Denver
|
3
|
7
|
30.0%
|
|
New
York
|
3
|
10
|
23.1%
|
|
L.A.
Clippers
|
2
|
8
|
20.0%
|
How good are bookmakers at setting odds? Twelve of the thirty teams in the NBA are
currently playing to within one game of .500 in their ATS record. There are three ways I find this information
useful:
- Finding teams that are skewed drastically in one direction & play for them to come back towards .500. Of course you need to find great “spots” to execute that strategy, however, I do feel passing on say a team facing the Knicks is smarter than playing against the Knicks at this point. Many will disagree with that strategy but remember, its ALWAYS OK to pass on a game.
- Finding teams whose ATS record does not match up with the SBPI ratings above. A good example of this would be Milwaukee, who is playing as the 20th best team according to my ratings yet sits at 9-3 ATS. Their lines may become inflated by the slightest of margins so their ATS record comes back towards the median, however, there are truly not playing as well as the public most likely perceives because of that ATS record.
- Locating teams whose home/road game skews are big at this early point in the season. As we get deeper into a season we get a better feel for every team because they will have significant sample sizes in both home & road games; right now however teams like Toronto & Portland have played 8 home games while San Antonio has played just 4.
Thanks for reading.
In the early part of the season I will only be publishing this article
approximately every 10-14 days; as the calendar turns to 2015 and football
winds down we will post this article more frequently.
Email me directly: boss@thesportsboss.com
Visit my website: www.thesportsboss.com
Follow me on Twitter: @SportsBoss
COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2014
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