Those that follow my blog know I post my performance ratings
quite often during the NFL regular season – these ratings are comprised of 16
statistics I track on offense & defense game by game, rating each team’s
performance on a scale of 0 to 5 in each stat.
I update the “grading system” each year by adjusting performance buckets
for each statistic – a perfect game score on offense & defense is 80 –
leading to a perfect game score overall being 160 (no team has posted a perfect score
on offense, defense or overall in any 1 game).
With all that in mind this summer I have decided to look back at the
best & worst grades on offense, defense & total – for individual games
& seasons – it will include 2011, 2012 & 2013. I will also include both SU & ATS records
to track how my grading system correlates to records.
First up here are the best & worst full season offense
grades:
|
TOP
10 OFFENSES
|
||||
|
Rating
|
Team
|
Year
|
SU
Rec
|
ATS
Rec
|
|
57.41
|
NO
|
2011
|
13-3
|
12-4
|
|
55.41
|
NE
|
2012
|
12-4
|
9-6-1
|
|
55.13
|
DEN
|
2013
|
13-3
|
10-5-1
|
|
53.63
|
NE
|
2011
|
13-3
|
9-7
|
|
53.50
|
GB
|
2011
|
15-1
|
11-5
|
|
53.13
|
WAS
|
2012
|
10-6
|
11-5
|
|
52.22
|
DEN
|
2012
|
13-3
|
10-6
|
|
51.31
|
SD
|
2013
|
9-7
|
9-6-1
|
|
49.81
|
CHI
|
2013
|
8-8
|
4-11-1
|
|
49.16
|
CAR
|
2011
|
6-10
|
9-7
|
|
WORST
10 OFFENSES
|
||||
|
Rating
|
Team
|
Year
|
SU
Rec
|
ATS
Rec
|
|
24.50
|
ARI
|
2012
|
5-11
|
7-8-1
|
|
27.16
|
STL
|
2011
|
2-14
|
3-12-1
|
|
28.03
|
JAC
|
2013
|
4-12
|
5-10-1
|
|
29.31
|
IND
|
2011
|
2-14
|
6-10
|
|
29.41
|
JAC
|
2011
|
5-11
|
7-8-1
|
|
29.97
|
BAL
|
2013
|
8-8
|
7-9
|
|
30.38
|
JAC
|
2012
|
2-14
|
7-9
|
|
30.53
|
NYG
|
2013
|
7-9
|
7-9
|
|
31.03
|
CLE
|
2011
|
4-12
|
7-7-2
|
|
31.59
|
TB
|
2013
|
4-12
|
6-10
|
From the 20 grades listed above only 1 posted SU/ATS records
opposite of what we would expect: Chicago posted a 4-11-1 ATS mark in 2013
despite having the 9th best offensive season. The Bears last year had an ATS margin of 5 or
less in eight of eleven losses including five by 3 or less! As far as the bottom 10 offenses none were
profitable during their seasons of futility, nor did any post winning SU marks. One interesting discussion point regarding the
worst 10 offenses’ ATS records is eight of the ten won at least 6 games ATS
wise – hence why many suggest (including myself quite often) you must back the
poor teams quite often during a typical NFL season to have success – that ATS
record phenomenon is also seen in many of the matrices posted below.
Looking specifically at the top 10 offenses the top 5 &
6 of the top 7 come as no surprise being led by one of the widely regarded top
QBs Brees, Brady and P. Manning; however of #6-10 only Manning’s 2012 Broncos fall
in the same category; RG3’s Redskins check in at #6 during his rookie season of
2012, Rivers’ Chargers & Cutler’s Bears from last year are #8 & #9
while Cam Newton’s Panthers check in at #10 during his rookie season of 2011. Interesting a pair of the best team offensive
seasons over the last three years were led by rookie QBs – what does the future
have in store for those two? It would
seem to be very bright as Newton led his Panthers to the 2nd best
record in the NFC last season while RG3 was injured / recovering from his torn
ACL most of 2013 and should bounce back well come 2014 with the new coaching
staff in place.
The list of the worst 10 offenses in this time span are
filled with the usual suspects excluding last year’s Ravens & Giants. Baltimore was coming off an improbable Super
Bowl win in February 2014 but really struggled last season for two major
reasons: first was their inability to run the ball effectively as they ranked
32nd (last in NFL) in overall rushing according to my model (while
facing a relatively easy 23rd toughest schedule of rush defenses);
second was their passing game & miscellaneous offense categories
(miscellaneous statistics are those that cannot be directly tied to either
rushing or passing such as first downs, time of possessions, conversions, etc…)
really struggled checking in at #29 & #28 respectively – but some of those
struggles were impacted by facing tough top 8 defenses in both categories,
unlike their rushing game which simply struggled due to their own faults
including the apparent decline of one strong RB Ray Rice. Overall Baltimore was #31 offensively in my
models last year (only JAC was worse) but they did face a tough opponent
defense schedule of #7. On the flip side
are the NY Giants who were one spot better in performance at #30 but their
offense could be more worrisome for their fans since they accomplished that by
facing just the 27th ranked schedule of opponent defenses! So not only did the Giants offense struggle
mightily they did so versus a very easy schedule of opponent defenses – not
good obviously. The five teams that
faced easier schedules of opponent defenses than the Giants last year all
placed inside the top half of offensive production, the worst being the
Redskins checking in at #16 – but keep in mind RG3 missed 3 games last year
which impacted their offensive production!
Next up let’s examine the best & worst full season
defense scores:
|
TOP
10 DEFENSES
|
||||
|
Rating
|
Team
|
Year
|
SU
Rec
|
ATS
Rec
|
|
50.41
|
DEN
|
2012
|
13-3
|
10-6
|
|
50.16
|
BAL
|
2011
|
12-4
|
8-7-1
|
|
49.94
|
SEA
|
2013
|
13-3
|
11-5
|
|
49.59
|
HOU
|
2011
|
10-6
|
10-5-1
|
|
48.88
|
PIT
|
2011
|
12-4
|
7-9
|
|
48.59
|
SF
|
2011
|
13-3
|
12-3-1
|
|
47.91
|
CIN
|
2013
|
11-5
|
10-5-1
|
|
47.50
|
NYJ
|
2011
|
8-8
|
6-10
|
|
47.31
|
PIT
|
2012
|
8-8
|
6-9-1
|
|
45.75
|
CHI
|
2012
|
10-6
|
8-7-1
|
|
WORST
10 DEFENSES
|
||||
|
Rating
|
Team
|
Year
|
SU
Rec
|
ATS
Rec
|
|
27.53
|
NO
|
2012
|
7-9
|
8-8
|
|
28.28
|
TB
|
2011
|
4-12
|
4-12
|
|
29.13
|
IND
|
2011
|
2-14
|
6-10
|
|
29.91
|
ATL
|
2013
|
4-12
|
7-9
|
|
30.41
|
CHI
|
2013
|
8-8
|
4-11-1
|
|
30.41
|
DAL
|
2013
|
8-8
|
9-7
|
|
31.06
|
JAC
|
2013
|
4-12
|
5-10-1
|
|
31.19
|
BUF
|
2011
|
6-10
|
6-9-1
|
|
31.47
|
MIN
|
2013
|
5-11
|
9-7
|
|
31.94
|
JAC
|
2012
|
2-14
|
7-9
|
|
31.94
|
TEN
|
2012
|
6-10
|
6-10
|
There is little doubt in today’s NFL offense is the biggest
contributor to success, and we can really see that come alive with these
figures. Although none of the top
defensive teams posted a record below .500 SU however three did as measured by ATS
records (however all 3 won at least six).
Of the bottom ten defenses none posted records above .500 SU while two
were above .500 ATS wise, both checking in at 9-7. Not much of a conclusion can be reached
measuring team defense as it relates to winning SU or ATS – in today’s NFL it’s
all about offense, and the numbers & records above support that reasoning. But the one premise I touched on above
regarding poor teams holds true here as well because we see again eight of the
eleven worst defenses won at least 6 games ATS.
Lastly here are the best & worst overall full season
grades:
|
TOP
10 OVERALL
|
||||
|
Rating
|
Team
|
Year
|
SU
Rec
|
ATS
Rec
|
|
102.63
|
DEN
|
2012
|
13-3
|
10-6
|
|
97.44
|
HOU
|
2011
|
10-6
|
10-5-1
|
|
95.94
|
DEN
|
2013
|
13-3
|
10-5-1
|
|
95.25
|
SF
|
2012
|
11-5
|
8-8
|
|
95.06
|
SEA
|
2013
|
13-3
|
11-5
|
|
94.94
|
NO
|
2011
|
13-3
|
12-4
|
|
94.41
|
PIT
|
2011
|
12-4
|
7-9
|
|
93.34
|
SEA
|
2012
|
11-5
|
11-5
|
|
92.00
|
NO
|
2013
|
11-5
|
8-8
|
|
91.88
|
CIN
|
2013
|
11-5
|
10-5-1
|
|
WORST
10 OVERALL
|
||||
|
Rating
|
Team
|
Year
|
SU
Rec
|
ATS
Rec
|
|
58.44
|
IND
|
2011
|
2-14
|
6-10
|
|
59.09
|
JAC
|
2013
|
4-12
|
5-10-1
|
|
62.31
|
JAC
|
2012
|
2-14
|
7-9
|
|
63.22
|
TB
|
2011
|
4-12
|
4-12
|
|
63.91
|
STL
|
2011
|
2-14
|
3-12-1
|
|
66.22
|
TEN
|
2012
|
6-10
|
6-10
|
|
67.41
|
TB
|
2013
|
4-12
|
6-10
|
|
67.53
|
ARI
|
2012
|
5-11
|
7-8-1
|
|
69.00
|
CLE
|
2012
|
5-11
|
8-7-1
|
|
69.56
|
OAK
|
2013
|
4-12
|
7-8-1
|
|
69.56
|
CLE
|
2011
|
4-12
|
7-7-2
|
Of the top 10 overall teams each won at least 10 games SU
(nine of the ten won 11+ games) while just 1 posted an under .500 ATS mark:
Pittsburgh was 7-9 ATS in 2011 which was
greatly impacted by a (13) TOM, 4th worst in the NFL that
season. We also again see eight of the
eleven worst overall teams posted at least 6 ATS wins but just one was able to
break the elusive .500 barrier (2012 Cleveland going 8-7-1).
In addition to those full season figures I have also dug a
little deeper to identify the top 10 offense, defense & overall single
game performances from the last 3 seasons.
|
BEST
10 OFFENSIVE GAMES
|
||||||
|
Rating
|
Team
|
Opp
|
Week
|
Year
|
Score
|
Cover?
|
|
78.00
|
SF
|
BUF
|
5
|
2012
|
45-3
|
Y
|
|
77.00
|
NO
|
IND
|
7
|
2011
|
62-7
|
Y
|
|
76.50
|
NO
|
CAR
|
17
|
2011
|
45-17
|
Y
|
|
75.50
|
HOU
|
@TEN
|
7
|
2011
|
41-7
|
Y
|
|
74.50
|
NO
|
DAL
|
10
|
2013
|
49-17
|
Y
|
|
74.00
|
DAL
|
BUF
|
10
|
2011
|
44-7
|
Y
|
|
73.50
|
CHI
|
DAL
|
14
|
2013
|
45-28
|
Y
|
|
73.00
|
SEA
|
@ATL
|
10
|
2013
|
33-10
|
Y
|
|
73.00
|
DEN
|
NO
|
8
|
2012
|
34-14
|
Y
|
|
73.00
|
NO
|
NYG
|
12
|
2011
|
49-24
|
Y
|
*NOTE: the worst defensive games over same time period are
the reciprocals of the above list (defensive grade would be 80 minus rating
listed above while defensive team that “earned” that rating would be the “Opp”
column). For example BUF posted the
worst defensive grade, a “2.0” when they travelled to SF and got beat down 45-3
Week Five of 2012. Their only points on
the grading scale that day were from posting a (1) TOM!
|
WORST
10 OFFENSIVE GAMES
|
||||||
|
Rating
|
Team
|
Opp
|
Week
|
Year
|
Score
|
Cover?
|
|
3.50
|
MIA
|
@BUF
|
16
|
2013
|
0-19
|
N
|
|
4.00
|
JAC
|
IND
|
4
|
2013
|
3-37
|
N
|
|
4.50
|
NYJ
|
SF
|
4
|
2012
|
0-34
|
N
|
|
5.00
|
BUF
|
@TB
|
14
|
2013
|
6-27
|
N
|
|
5.00
|
NYG
|
SEA
|
15
|
2013
|
0-23
|
N
|
|
5.50
|
WAS
|
@BUF
|
8
|
2011
|
0-23
|
N
|
|
6.00
|
CHI
|
KC
|
13
|
2011
|
3-10
|
N
|
|
6.50
|
JAC
|
KC
|
1
|
2013
|
2-28
|
N
|
|
6.50
|
GB
|
@DET
|
13
|
2013
|
10-40
|
N
|
|
6.50
|
MIA
|
@BUF
|
11
|
2012
|
14-19
|
N
|
|
6.50
|
KC
|
@OAK
|
15
|
2012
|
0-15
|
N
|
|
6.50
|
STL
|
@SF
|
13
|
2011
|
0-26
|
N
|
*NOTE: the best defensive games are the reciprocals of the
above list (see explanation above). In a
strange ironic twist, BUF also posted the best one game defensive grade when
they reached “76.5” in that Week Sixteen meeting with the Dolphins in Buffalo
during the 2013 season. The Dolphins
avoided the goose egg on my grading scale that day by earning points in three
categories: 1st downs rushing as a % of total carries, INT thrown
and TOM.
|
TOP
10 OVERALL GAME GRADES
|
||||||
|
Rating
|
Team
|
Opp
|
Week
|
Year
|
Score
|
Cover?
|
|
143.50
|
DET
|
GB
|
13
|
2013
|
40-10
|
Y
|
|
143.50
|
HOU
|
@TEN
|
7
|
2011
|
41-7
|
Y
|
|
137.00
|
DEN
|
KC
|
17
|
2012
|
38-3
|
Y
|
|
136.50
|
DEN
|
OAK
|
4
|
2012
|
37-6
|
Y
|
|
135.50
|
CHI
|
@JAC
|
5
|
2012
|
41-3
|
Y
|
|
134.50
|
DEN
|
NO
|
8
|
2012
|
34-14
|
Y
|
|
134.00
|
IND
|
@JAC
|
4
|
2013
|
37-3
|
Y
|
|
133.50
|
SF
|
BUF
|
5
|
2012
|
45-3
|
Y
|
|
132.50
|
GB
|
TEN
|
16
|
2012
|
55-7
|
Y
|
|
131.50
|
NO
|
DAL
|
10
|
2013
|
49-17
|
Y
|
|
131.50
|
SEA
|
ARI
|
14
|
2012
|
58-0
|
Y
|
*NOTE: the worst overall game grade was a tie between the
Packers & Titans who each posted a “16.5”. The Packers posted theirs in a 40-10 loss at
Detroit in Week 13 last year. In that
game, led by backup QB Matt Flynn, the Packers posted a 6.5 grade on offense
& 10.0 defensively. Tennessee posted
theirs in a 41-7 home loss to the Texans in 2011, receiving grades of 8.5 on both
offense & defense.
One last interesting note (which you would obviously figure
to be the case but should be pointed out none the less) is of the 33 single
game performances identified above the team who “won” the grading scale
those games also covered the spread everytime. My models, which I run before games with
various sensitivities based on each team’s past performances overall and using
splits (I run 6 models for each NFL game each week using various splits such as
home/road for example), cashes approximately 75% - meaning, the team who scores
higher in the model covers the spread ~75% of the time over the last 6 seasons
I have been running it (again that makes intuitive sense since a team that wins
my grading system is performing better than their opponent in key stats which
in turn increases the chances they win the game & thus cover the spread). The trick is continuing to tweak my process
& its inputs as the more accurate I am with those the better the end
product of predicting winners comes every Sunday!
Hopefully for NFL fans & specifically fans of the teams
discussed here that can stir some positive memories & get you even more pumped
for the upcoming season; for those on the wrong side of pieces of this analysis
remember, there is only one way to go & that’s up – so you too can be
excited for the 2014 season!
Thanks for reading again!
We have just a few weeks till preseason football gets going, check back
every couple days for additional articles here.
Email me directly: boss@thesportsboss.com
Visit my website: www.thesportsboss.com
Follow me on Twitter: @SportsBoss
Follow me on Facebook: The SportsBoss
Leave comments here on the blog
COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2014
No comments:
Post a Comment