The MLB All Star break is upon us meaning we are now 3 full
weeks into our “official” MLB selections implementing the trio of models
mentioned on our website:
- Efficiency measured in runs scored & runs allowed
- Monte Carlo simulation
- Pitching performance
We posted MLB selections very successfully via Twitter
during the months of April & May (56-42 57.1% +$1,383 on all $100 wagers) –
which prompted to apply these models as the basis for selections over the last
3 weeks of action – the only selections we are recording official records for
despite posting big profits on plays posted to Twitter earlier in the year.
One of the new analyses we use measures each teams actual
runs scored & allowed versus what we expect each team to post in those
categories based on statistical performance (essentially measuring how
efficient each team is during critical game spots). Based on that run margin we use a Pythagorean
Theorem for MLB to project what each team’s record would be if they were all
working at maximum efficiency – this is exactly the same type of analysis we
used in a recently posted article about the NFL where we valued TOM for each
team, removed that impact on their points margin, and slid each team into a new
fully efficient record based on true statistical performance.
Here is what the standings & playoff seeding would look
like for each division, starting first with the American League:
P WINS
|
P LOSSES
|
+ / -
|
||
TBR
|
52
|
45
|
(8)
|
|
BAL
|
49
|
45
|
3
|
|
TOR
|
50
|
46
|
(1)
|
|
NYY
|
44
|
50
|
3
|
|
BOS
|
44
|
51
|
(1)
|
|
DET
|
53
|
38
|
0
|
|
CHW
|
48
|
48
|
(3)
|
|
CLE
|
46
|
48
|
1
|
|
KCR
|
46
|
48
|
2
|
|
MIN
|
43
|
51
|
1
|
|
OAK
|
61
|
34
|
(2)
|
|
LAA
|
60
|
34
|
(3)
|
|
SEA
|
54
|
41
|
(3)
|
|
HOU
|
41
|
55
|
(1)
|
|
TEX
|
36
|
59
|
2
|
|
CURRENT PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS
|
|||
#1 SEED
|
OAK
|
||
#2 SEED
|
DET
|
||
#3 SEED
|
TBR
|
||
WC #1
|
LAA
|
||
WC #2
|
SEA
|
||
Clearly there are a few discussion points but perhaps not as
many as expected. Right off the bat we
can mention the AL West projected standings are in the precise order the actual
standings are INCLUDING both Wild Card teams being LAA & SEA in all
scenarios. In the AL Central the first
place Tigers are at top, 3rd place Indians & the last place
Twins are static in both scenarios; the only variance comes from the White Sox
& Royals who have flip flopped in my model – but in the actual standings
there is just a 3 win difference between the two teams, while in my model it’s
down to a 2 win variance – nothing significant & it could “fix” itself as
early as this weekend’s series’. The AL
East has the most surprising breakdown without question: last place BOS is the same
in both scenarios, and the order of BAL, TOR, and NYY are also identical – but the
biggest standout in the AL comes from the Rays who jump from 4th in
actual standings to projected tops in the division using my model. TB has the biggest win variance of any team
in MLB as they currently have won 8 less games than I project, even including
their recent 13-5 run to close before the ASB.
Why do the Rays have such a huge variance? Most of their inefficiency comes from their
offense which has scored approximately 35 less runs this season than their
statistics suggest they should have (that mark is 3rd worst in
MLB). If the Rays can find timelier
hitting come the last two plus months of the season they could certainly find
themselves in the mix for an AL East title, especially considering this is the
weakest division in the American League this season.
Next up let’s take the same look at the National League:
P WINS
|
P LOSSES
|
+ / -
|
||
WSN
|
52
|
41
|
(1)
|
|
ATL
|
50
|
45
|
2
|
|
NYM
|
47
|
48
|
(2)
|
|
MIA
|
44
|
50
|
0
|
|
PHI
|
42
|
53
|
0
|
|
STL
|
53
|
43
|
(1)
|
|
PIT
|
51
|
44
|
(2)
|
|
CIN
|
51
|
44
|
0
|
|
MIL
|
51
|
45
|
2
|
|
CHC
|
47
|
47
|
(7)
|
|
LAD
|
56
|
41
|
(2)
|
|
SFG
|
51
|
45
|
1
|
|
COL
|
47
|
49
|
(7)
|
|
ARI
|
42
|
54
|
(2)
|
|
SDP
|
39
|
56
|
2
|
|
CURRENT PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS
|
|||
#1 SEED
|
LAD
|
||
#2 SEED
|
WSN
|
||
#3 SEED
|
STL
|
||
WC #1
|
PIT
|
||
WC #2
|
CIN
|
||
The NL East is the same as the AL West in that my model
projects all teams in their same spot as actual standings. My model has the top two teams in the NL West
identical to actual standings, while the bottom three are in a slightly
different order with COL being the big standout – the Rockies have won 7 less
games than expected this season! Similar
to TB but not exactly the same they lead MLB in offensive inefficiency scoring
a whopping 38 runs less than their statistics suggest, a tough pill to swallow
for a Rockies team that must excel offensively due to a weak pitching staff
& their home park. Amazingly COL has
allowed the exact # of runs their statistics suggest which is worst in MLB on
an actual basis & 2nd to TEX on an adjusted efficiency
basis. The NL Central is very strong in
actuality & my model – of the five teams in the division my model has 4
projected as above .500 teams currently & the fifth, CHC, projected to be
exactly .500 – very strong top to bottom, which may wind up working against the
possibility both NL Wild Card teams could come from that division. The Cubs match the Rockies as far as
inefficiency goes as they have won 7 less games than their statistics suggest –
but unlike the other two big variance teams TB & COL the Cubs inefficiency
has come in their runs allowed, yielding 28 more runs which is 2nd
in MLB to LAA. With recent moves made by
GM Theo Epstein & a better than many believe performance so far this season
the Cubs could be priming themselves to get back in the mix here in a year or
two, despite this division being one of the toughest if not the toughest in all
of baseball. One interesting team is
MIL, who have cut their projected wins variance down to 2 recently after
reaching 6 games above earlier this month, which was the highest of any team
since the early stages of this season.
On July 3rd I tweeted the Brewers were due for a big time
correction as their actual record was far greater than their statistics
suggested – since that day they went 2-8, closing with a big win over STL to
avoid the sweep Sunday at home. Those
Brewers, Reds, Cardinals & Pirates seem to be heading towards a September
to remember with two and possibly three playoff spots up for grabs.
Thanks for taking in one of my few MLB articles posted
here. Looking forward to a very strong
next 6 weeks of baseball action leading us into football season! Stop by, grab a package & build that
bankroll for the Fall!
Email me directly: boss@thesportsboss.com
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