San Francisco Forty-Niners: last year’s surprise team, seemingly coming out of nowhere to host the NFC Championship game, looks to build off that success and not go backwards as team’s typically do when the schedule strength increases, and they turn more from the hunter to the hunted. SF currently sits with a middle of the pack schedule using both 2011 & 2012 numbers, but a lot of that is driven by the weakness that is their division. This year the schedule is clearly back-weighted, with all 6 divisional contests coming Wk7 or later (6 of their final 10 games are in the NFC West), with the other four games vs. CHI, @ NO, MIA, @ NE. The NFC West is improving – it is still the worst division in the NFC, with only perhaps the AFC South worse in all of football – but this is still a division where SF is the 2012 kingpin. Even if the Niners blow thru the NFC West at 5-1 this year, they still have more than a few formidable opponents in their remaining games to make it unlikely they reach 13 wins, like they did in 2011. The Niners will only face one team off a bye, STL at home in Wk10 – a game which both teams will be coming off a week of rest. They do have a three game home stand early in the season, Wks 5-7 vs. BUF, NYG, SEA, which is offset by a pair of back to back road games, one early in the season (Wks 3-4), and one later in the year (Wks15-16). There will also be a lot of travel, and different start times to their games this season as they will have 5 primetime games (pair of SNF & MNF, one TNF), three 1pm starts, two trips to the northeast, three trips to central time zone, and one trip to the mountain time zone. That kind of inconsistency can really throw a wrench into a team’s week and especially their gameday preparation, and can often lead to issues as the season wears on. Drilling down on their primetime action in a more detailed fashion, neither of their four SNF or MNF games should be too much of an issue, but their TNF game could be placed a little better as it comes in Wk7 hosting SEA, which is off a visit from the Giants in an NFC Championship rematch. The Niners will no doubt be looking for big time revenge vs. the G-Men, which could make it extremely tough to raise those emotions back up to the level needed just 4 days later vs. SEA. To be frank the talent gap that SF owns on the rest of the NFC West is still large; however, the coaching situation in the division is extremely close as STL hired Jeff Fisher whom I view as one of the best leaders in the NFL; Pete Carroll is leading an improving SEA club and looks to be a much better coach than his first go around in the NFL back in the 1990s; while Ken Whisenhunt has done an excellent job at ARI including a Super Bowl appearance. Look for SF to win the NFC West once again, but not quite reach 13 wins or earn a bye in the playoffs this year.
St. Louis Rams: the 2012 Rams are looking to get back to what they were in 2010, just like the Tampa Bay Bucs. Both teams tripped up last season amid rare, modest expectations, but with coaching changes at both spots, improvements on the field appear to be on the horizon. I absolutely love what the Rams did bringing in Jeff Fisher, who for my money is one of the best in the business at maximizing the talent on a roster. As far as this year’s schedule goes, STL is towards the bottom when using my 2011 rankings; using 2012 ratings they are more towards the middle of the pack, right around the rest of their divisional mates sans ARI, who is ranked as having the toughest schedule in the division. STL plays two sets of back to back division games, including Wks 4-5 where they host SEA & ARI. Overall five of their first eight are at home, and after their Wk9 bye the opposite is true including 3 of their last 4 on the road. They could potentially be impacted by bad weather games as well, namely @ BUF Wk 14, and @ SEA to close the regular season. Their two matchups with SF come in a 4 week span from Wk10-13, with the first meeting featuring both teams off their bye week in SF. Like many other team’s that struggled in 2011, STL will only have one night game, a TNF matchup hosting ARI in Wk5 – which comes off another home divisional game vs. SEA. I do not expect STL to challenge for a playoff spot just yet, but with this schedule being middle of the pack, even with a few tough potential breaks late with weather, aiming for .500 would be a solid goal to reach and use to build upon as they head into 2013. Jeff Fisher is the right man for the sidelines, Sam Bradford is a solid choice @ QB as well – give it a couple years and the Rams will be back challenging for playoff berths, and perhaps more.
Seattle Seahawks: Pete Carroll’s team right off the bat features a scheduling oddity no other team has this season – they play their first three divisional contests on the road, and their last three come at home – with the last three being played over the final four weeks of the season, with a game @ BUF sprinkled in. That is very interesting and could work to their advantage should they somehow be within striking distance of SF as the last quarter of the season hits us. The Hawks face one team off a bye week, when they host the Jets in Wk10, which comes immediately before their own bye week. Three back to back home sets are offset by three back to back road sets, in another oddity for the Seahawks in 2012. SEA has a pair of night games, hosting GB in Wk3 on MNF which is followed by a late Sunday start @ STL; TNF @ SF in Wk7, which backs up a home tilt with the Patriots. Unfortunately, although they will clearly spend a lot of travel time in all seasons because they are tucked away in the Pacific Northwest, this season they have quite a few long road trips including MIA, BUF & CAR, along with DET, CHI & STL. That becomes very taxing on a team as the season wears on. SEA will be a very interesting team to follow this year as they clearly have some nice pieces, especially on defense, and their new QB Matt Flynn will be under center come the September 9th opener in ARI. This is a team that figures to improve as the season goes on – so as mentioned before, if they can simply stay within striking distance of a playoff berth during the first half of the season, the second half slate may be just enough to get them into one of the WC spots.
Arizona Cardinals: the Cardinals are one of only five teams this season that have the advantage of not playing back to back divisional games at any point during the season – the other four are NO, SD, BAL and HOU. However, according to most of my numbers, the Cardinals will face the toughest NFC West schedule this year – yes, even tougher than what SF is slated to face as far as my power ratings stack team strength currently. The Cards open with 3 of 4 at home, and close with 2 of 3 at home – which mean Wks5-14 is weighted heavily towards road games. Speaking of those road games, ARI plays two sets of back to back – one is GB & ATL sandwiched around a bye Wk9-11; the other comes later in the year when they visit the Jets, then division rival Seahawks in Wks 13-14. Like SEA, ARI only plays a pair of night contests – both are vs. division rivals as they travel to STL in Wk5 for a TNF, which comes on the heels of hosting MIA; the second and final night game comes in Wk8 when they host defending NFC West champ SF on MNF. It’s hard to get a grasp on just how good the Cardinals can be this year – on one hand they finished last year very strong, but on the other hand they started off so slow and dug such a deep hole they could not recover – which team will show up in 2013?
That is the last installment, look back at past entries to locate your team.
Next up will be Part II of my Turnover Analysis, which will be posted next week.
COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2012
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