Green Bay Packers: as far as division games go, this could potentially be the toughest layout in the NFL this coming season as after hosting CHI in Wk2, GB does not play another NFC North team until immediately following their bye week, in WK11, which starts a run of four divisional games in 5 weeks, and 5 over the last 7. Obviously what can also be inferred from that point is they do not play DET until Wk11 (then play them twice in 4 games), and do not face MIN till Wk13 (then face them twice in 5 games). That kind of bunching of divisional contests can be extremely taxing on any team, even one as good as GB. What’s more, I never like grouping divisional contests vs. the same team so close to one another as injuries could play such a massive factor when doing that, and it just doesn’t disperse risk to each team evenly. What if Rodgers suffers a concussion in the first half of the Wk11 game vs. DET and misses the next 3 games? It is much more fair if the opponents any team plays twice are more spread out; so as to lessen the possibility an injury or two could greatly impact both games in a series. Overall GB once again doesn’t appear it will face a tough schedule – only 3 games next year will be against teams that finished in my top 10 of statistical performance last year. Compare that to the Giants who will face 10, and that is a potentially critical advantage for the Packers this year. Over last three seasons GB has consistently played one of weaker schedules, especially amongst contending teams. Last year I had their schedule #27, 2010 #14, 2009 #31 – most of that is pure luck based on the rotation of opponents, some of it is driven by a weaker but improving NFC North. This year GB plays a trio of SNF games, along with one MNF & TNF. They host CHI in Wk2 for their lone TNF contest, which comes off a big opening week matchup vs. SF @ 4pm – the national game on Fox. Following that, in Wk3, they travel to SEA for their lone MNF game, which is also their road opener. Their three SNF games consist of a pair of road games @ HOU in Wk6 which follows a trip to IND, Wk12 visiting the defending champs who are coming off a bye, and Wk14 when they host DET. Overall, their night games are not bunched tough, outside perhaps the Wk2 game vs. chief rival CHI. Last note, GB does face one three game road trip, also four roadies in five games early in the season – but only one of those is against a likely playoff team. Once again, GB appears to have a schedule set to do some damage during the regular season, and position themselves nicely come NFC playoff time.
Chicago Bears: CHI will face an interesting schedule this season, as on one hand using my 2011 rankings their schedule checks in @ #9; but using my adjusted power ratings for 2012 it slides down a significant amount to #19 – which will be closer to their true SOS when 2012 plays out will be one of the keys in determining their fate as they seem to be a trendy pick of sorts this offseason. Before their bye in Wk6, the Bears face three of the NFL’s worst teams in IND, STL, JAC, with the first two coming at home. Sandwiched between those games are trips to DAL and GB, which both will be critical for earning a potential playoff berth down the line. CHI closes with 4 of 6 vs. NFC North teams, including playing MIN twice in 3 weeks (Wk12 @ home, Wk14 on road) – once again, MIN playing the same opponent too close together. The second meeting between the teams in Wk14 is the only time CHI will face a team coming off a bye week all season. The Bears have 3 of their last 4 games on the road, including closing @ ARI & @ DET – both of which could have serious playoff implications. Their likely toughest two games of the year come back to back, right in middle of the season, when they face HOU at home then travel to SF in Wks 10&11. The Bears will play three MNF games, along with one SNF & TNF contest. Two of the three MNF games are on road; all three vs. teams who have designs on making playoffs come January. Their lone TNF game comes in Wk2 @ GB, and with them coming off a home game vs. IND in Wk1, it could not be placed any better at all. In Wks 4-11 they will have the rest of their night games – since their bye is included as well, that will make it 4 night games, one 4pm kick, and two 1pm starts. Their lone home MNF game comes off their bye vs. DET, while the aforementioned HOU game on SNF takes place in Wk10, sandwiched around a trip to TEN and SF. Like NFC East teams, the NFC North also appears to be very back heavy as far as divisional games go – and late in the season is when the Bears fate will likely be determined – just like Goodell and schedule maker Howard Katz want it to be.
Minnesota Vikings: like GB above, MIN will also play 5 of their last 7 games within the division, getting three of those at home including the last two in Wks 14&17 vs. CHI & GB respectively. Overall however, MIN will face road games in 4 of their last 6. The schedule really couldn’t start much easier with games hosting JAC and @ IND, and 7 of their first 9 are vs. teams that finished ranked #20 or worse in my performance statistics last season. Their SOS is #23 using 2012 initial ratings, which places them only above GB in their division as far as strength – however, their home slate is #27, with road checking in at #14 – which isn’t likely to help things too much. The Vikes only have one night game, a TNF matchup hosting TB in Wk8, which comes off hosting ARI in an early Sunday start. Overall, a decent start record wise is possible, especially if Adrian Peterson can get on the field in Wk1 and be 100% - but over the long haul, this roster just has too many question marks to challenge in a vastly improving NFC North where all teams outside themselves have legitimate playoff hopes heading into the 2012 campaign.
Detroit Lions: after missing the playoffs for 11 straight seasons, DET finally crashed the party in 2011, although they were unable to secure their first playoff win since 1991. A solid nucleus remains intact – but what was their reward for a strong season? According to my initial 2012 power ratings, they will face the #1 schedule this year in all of the NFL, including the toughest road slate. That cannot be good. What is good is a very slow start to that schedule – before their Wk5 bye, DET will face STL, TEN, MIN – all three of which rated #25 or worse in statistical performance last year. In addition, their divisional contests are more spread out compared to the rest of the NFC North – they only face one instance of back to back divisional games, and only play two in the final six weeks of the season. That alone should help them get a leg up on the rest of the division. What is very interesting regarding their home/road layout is big streaks: during one stretch they play 2 of 3, 4 of 6, 6 of 8 games on the road (all from Wk 2 to Wk10); but with that also comes nice bunches of home games in which they will play 3 straight Wks 11-13, and 5 of 7 to close the season. At least that oddity has worked out in the sense they will face the road tests early in the season, and have a chance to close the season strong with a majority of their home games coming down the stretch. On a bad note, they do face two teams coming off a bye week, Wk7 @ CHI & Wk 11 vs. GB – which is tied for 3rd most in the NFL this year. That is more of a negative than the team’s that also have a pair of those games because DET’s come against divisional rivals – having two weeks to prepare for those games, especially considering its CHI & GB and not MIN, really puts DET behind the 8 ball. Because of last year’s success, DET has a bunch of primetime games in 2012: a pair of SNF & TNF, along with one MNF. Following their home opener vs. STL they travel to SF for their first of five night games – and since that is a long trip, looking at week ahead can add value, and in Wk3 they travel to TEN to face the Titans which comes before a home divisional games vs. MIN – possible fade spot there for DET. Off their bye in Wk5 they go to PHI, followed by @ CHI for their lone MNF game – very tough duo there. The rest of their night games come last in season, and the close to their season, even packed with home games, will be very tough: Wk10 @ MIN, Wk11 vs. GB (Packers off their bye), Wk12 hosting HOU on TNF (short week off possible NFC favorite and divisional rival GB to face possible AFC favorite HOU), Wk13 IND, Wk14 @ GB on SNF, Wk15 @ ARI late kick, Wk16 hosting ATL on TNF (very tough short week there coming back from late kick out West), Wk17 hosting CHI. Ouch! I look for DET to start strong before their bye, but face a lot of adversity towards the end of the season with the brutal slate laid out above. They should be in the mix for earning back to back playoff berths for the first time since ’94-’95.
Thanks again for reading. Check back later this week or early next week for the NFC South, and NFC West - both will be posted by the latest Friday July 20.
COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2012
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