NFL 2012 Season in Review: Profitable ATS Trends

In this article I will discuss some of the more profitable ATS trends some find useful as part of their handicapping exercise.  I particularly do not hold a lot of value in using these trends, but no question they can add value as a small piece of the handicapping puzzle – in particular, looking for team’s that have not had a lot of personnel turnover, especially focusing on coaching staff’s and QB’s.  Overall, I consider 4 years to be the absolute max trends such as this do stay somewhat relevant, but that estimation is flexible depending on many factors.

Legend: home favorites (HF), home underdogs (HD), road favorites (RF), road underdogs (RD)

		4 YEARS : ''08-'11					2012
			ATS				ATS
TEAM		TREND	W/L	WIN %	NOTES		W/L	WIN %	NOTES
NE	*	RD	6-2	75%			1-0	100%
NYJ	*	HF	11-16	41%			2-3	40%
NYJ	*	HD	4-1	80%	W 4 of 5 SU		1-2	33%	W 0 of 3 SU
PIT	*	RF	8-12	40%			1-4	20%
PIT	*	HD	2-0	100%	W 2 of 2 SU		-	-
PIT	*	RD	7-4	64%			2-1	67%	W 2 of 3 SU
BAL	*	HF	17-10	63%	W 25 of 27 SU		2-4	33%	W 5 of 6 SU
BAL	*	RD	10-7	59%			1-3	25%	W 0 of 4 SU
NYG	*	HF	12-16	43%			4-4	50%	W 6 of 8 SU
NYG	*	Road	18-13	58%			4-4	50%	W 3 of 8 SU
DAL	*	HF	12-17	41%			0-6	0%	W 3 of 6 SU
DAL	*	RF	6-10	38%			2-1	67%	W 2 of 3 SU
DAL	*	Favorite	18-27	40%			2-7	22%	W 5 of 9 SU
GB	*	HF	17-11	61%			5-3	63%	W 7 of 8 SU
GB	*	RF	12-9	57%			3-3	50%
GB	*	Favorite	29-20	59%			8-6	57%
GB	*	HD	3-0	100%			-	-
GB	*	RD	7-5	58%			1-1	50%
GB	*	Underdog	10-5	67%			1-1	50%
GB	*	Road	19-14	58%			4-4	50%
GB	*	Home	20-11	65%			5-3	63%
ATL	*	HF	19-8	70%			4-4	50%	W 7 of 8 SU
ATL	*	RF	9-5	64%			3-2	60%	W 4 of 5 SU
ATL	*	Favorite	28-13	68%			7-6	54%	W 11 of 13 SU
SD	*	RF	6-15	29%			1-1	50%
SD	*	RD	8-3	73%	W 6 of 11 SU		4-2	67%	W 3 of 6 SU
PHI	*	RD	6-3	67%	W 5 of 9 SU		3-3	50%	W 1 of 6 SU
CHI		RF	5-2	71%			3-2	60%	W 4 of 5 SU
CHI		RD	8-14	36%			1-2	33%	W 1 of 3 SU
NO	*	HF	19-9	68%	W 24 of 28 SU		2-3	40%	W 2 of 5 SU
NO	*	Favorite	30-18	63%			4-4	50%	W 4 of 8 SU
MIA		HF	7-12	37%			2-2	50%
MIA		HD	4-8	33%			2-1	67%
MIA		Home	11-20	35%			4-3	57%
MIA		RD	19-7	73%	W 13 of 26 SU		2-5	29%	W 2 of 7 SU
BUF		HF	6-10	38%			4-2	67%
CIN		HF	5-11	31%			2-3	40%	W 3 of 5 SU
CLE		HF	3-7	30%			1-1	50%
IND		RF	11-5	69%			2-0	100%
JAC		HF	6-11	35%			0-1	0%
JAC		HD	6-9	40%			2-5	29%	W 1 of 7 SU
JAC		Home	12-20	38%			2-6	25%
JAC		RD	11-16	41%			5-3	63%	W 1 of 8 SU
JAC		Underdog	17-25	40%			7-8	47%
DEN		HF	2-15	12%			5-2	71%	W 7 of 7 SU
KC		HF	3-10	23%			0-1	0%
KC		RF	1-2	33%			-	-
KC		Favorite	4-12	25%			0-1	0%
KC		RD	18-11	62%			2-6	25%
KC		HD	11-8	58%			3-4	43%
KC		Underdog	29-19	60%			5-10	33%
WAS		HF	2-8	20%			3-2	60%	W 3 of 5 SU
MIN		RD	9-13	41%			3-3	50%	W 3 of 6 SU
TB		HD	2-12	14%	W 2 of 14 SU		1-1	50%
TB		RD	16-12	57%			6-1	86%	W 3 of 7 SU
CAR		RF	5-0	100%			1-2	33%	W 1 of 3 SU
CAR		Favorite	17-9	65%			2-4	33%	W 1 of 3 SU
CAR		HD	3-7	30%			2-3	40%	W 2 of 5 SU
CAR		RD	10-17	37%			5-0	100%	W 3 of 5 SU
CAR		Underdog	13-24	35%	W 9 of 37 SU		7-3	70%	W 5 of 10 SU
SF		HF	15-6	71%	W 17 of 21 SU		3-5	38%	W 6 of 8 SU
SF		RD	12-8	60%			2-1	67%	W 2 of 3 SU
SEA		RD	9-19	32%			3-1	75%	W 2 of 4 SU
STL		HD	11-15	42%			4-2	67%	W 4 of 6 SU
STL		RD	12-18	40%			7-1	88%	W 3 of 8 SU
STL		Underdog	23-33	41%	W 9 of 56 SU		11-3	79%	W 7 of 14 SU

*indicates teams I identified before last season where I felt these ATS trends would be of the highest relevance.

Review & Analysis of 2012 Regular Season results

This analysis once again proved to be profitable and spot on for the most part, adding to our successful preview articles we published before last season. 

In the matrix above I have split the teams in three buckets:

• the first bucket (NE, NYJ, PIT, BAL, NYG, DAL, GB, ATL) were teams I identified where these ATS trends were reliable, and these teams did not suffer any last second changes to their status before the 2012 regular season began
• the second bucket (SD, PHI, CHI, NO) consists of three teams I identified as having reliable ATS trends going into the 2012 season, but they had either a significant event occur last season or this past offseason which shifts them down a notch from the first bucket teams
• the third bucket is the remaining NFL teams and they all have not had enough consistency in key areas of their franchise to make these ATS trends too reliable when using them in a vacuum

When examining the first bucket teams, which are the teams these trends hold the highest significance with, the results were extremely favorable if you had strictly bet in the situations mentioned.  Overall this group had 11 winning trends vs. 4 losing trends, a solid, profitable performance (when calculating the 11-4 mark I have removed all trends where there were no instances in 2012 such as PIT as a home underdog, and also removed all situations where a team went exactly .500 during the 2012 regular season in a specific trend – for example NYG went 4-4 as home favorites & in road games).  Of the 8 teams listed in the first bucket, NE & PIT & GB & ATL all did not have a losing record in any one trend I identified, while the NYG went .500 in both so they were a wash; on the flip side Super Bowl Champion BAL posted a losing ATS record in both trends I identified for them, while NYJ & DAL each posted one losing trend mark (both of which were just one game under .500).  In summary of the first bucket teams we can see there are clear indicators of success or failure when simply breaking their ATS records into four high level categories (HF, HD, RF, RD) – which intuitively makes sense because these are some of the more stable, successful franchises in the NFL and their performance in certain spots over the years is more consistent than some may think.

Moving down to the second bucket teams, which is the last bucket we would suggest using trends such as these, there was more success as this group posted a mark of 3 winning trends vs. 1 losing trend.  CHI posted a perfect 2-0 mark as they performed well as a road favorite (a spot they have been solid in over 2008 to 2011 going 5-2 ATS), and they also performed subpar as a road underdog (a spot they have been losing in over 2008 to 2011 going just 8-14 ATS); SD continued playing well as a RD moving to 12-5 ATS over the last 5 full regular seasons; and NO was the lone losing proposition in this bucket as they posted just a 2-3 mark as a HF, an area they typically excelled posting a 19-9 mark from 2008 to 2011.  One key point in this grouping is all these teams either suffered a change of status before last season started (after I posted this article last summer), or over this most recent offseason:

• SD: fired HC Norv Turner, new HC is former DEN OC Mike McCoy
• PHI: fired HC Andy Reid, new HC is former Oregon HC Chip Kelly
• CHI: fired HC Lovie Smith, new HC is former CFL HC & NFL OC Marc Trestman
• NO: lost HC Sean Payton for the 2012 regular season due to suspension; he returns in 2013

The third bucket, which includes the remaining 20 NFL teams has not had enough consistency in key areas across the team and organization for these types of trends to hold a lot of relevance.  However, teams can slide up or down going into any season – more on this when we post our 2013 ATS Trends article, which will be coming out shortly.

Here we reviewed another preview article we posted heading into the 2012 regular season, and once again we hit a HOME RUN by identifying key & profitable ATS trends, properly grouping teams where they were relevant, leading to more winnings for our followers.  Of the 5 losing trends we identified from teams in bucket’s 1&2, three were just one game below .500, and the other pair were just two games below .500 – extremely close to being winners as well!

Check back next week when we continue our review of 2012 preview articles, and of course continue adding 2013 preview articles where we identify key areas/metrics to focus on when it’s time to handicap the games for this upcoming season.

COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2013

NFL 2013 Leading Indicators

Each offseason leading up to a new season I complete an analysis of 4 key statistics – called my “Leading Indicators” – I feel are critical to team success.  Those four stats are point differential (which is simply points scored minus points allowed), yards per play, first downs per game, and turnover margin – those four by themselves are very highly correlated with win/loss performance year after year.  Besides setting up this analysis for the upcoming season below, I have posted my review of the NFL 2012 Leading Indicators article that was very successful projecting which way team’s records would slide

Without further discussion let’s break down 3 of the 4 stats I mentioned above leaving out turnovers for now – they are perhaps the most critical, but I will be performing a more detailed analysis on that stat down the line – which will be featured in its own blog entries – so today I will not spend any time on it.  In a change from last year’s format, since we have already posted an in depth review of last season’s projections which is linked above, here is what stands out for the upcoming 2013 NFL Regular Season:

1.      Points Differential: simple calculation by taking the average points scored per game minus the average points allowed per game which yields a points differential per game.  There is a pretty standard matrix across the industry that has been put together studying just this figure over the last 30 or so years, which allows you to slot teams into a specific projected record based on this number (some refer to this analysis as the Pythagorean Theorem Analysis).  Once you do that the value in this analysis is added by comparing the actual record of a team vs. the record their points differential suggest it should have led to – and based on that you can green or red flag specific teams for the upcoming season.

o       Last year we nailed 4 of 5 projections

·        Based on 2012 figures, for the 2013 season we expect to see:

o       DET & NE & NYG & SEA to increase their wins this year.  Those four teams are what the numbers suggest – meaning, each of those four teams had a points differential that suggested they should have posted a better record than they actually did (and it just so happens this year that all four of those teams should have each won 2 additional games).  But by taking a closer look, and being familiar with the general slides we see year to year with NFL teams, I am hard pressed to agree with NE moving up from their 12 wins last year, along with SEA increasing their win total from the 11 they posted last season.  However, I do expect both DET & NYG to increase their win totals – especially DET which has a lot of supporting indicators that you will read about in this blog as we review last season.

o       IND & TEN to decrease this year.  Unlike the team’s projected to enjoy additional wins in the coming season, I do agree with the assessment that both of these AFC South teams will drop in wins from the 2012 season.  Like the Lions who are supported by many data points for an increase in their win total, the Colts on the flip side somehow won 11 games last season with not many indicators suggesting they should have even been close to that level – thanks Andrew Luck.  Expect the Colts to miss the playoffs in 2013, while the Titans should wind up with at worst a Top 5 selection in the 2014 NFL Draft.

2.      Yards per Play: the calculation is straight forward, and the idea here is to take this number for each team, sort from best to worst, and identify outliers – where teams that are near the top of this metric had a poor record, or vice versa.

o       Last year we were correct on 4 of 4 projections

·         Based upon 2012 figures, for the 2013 season we expect to see:

o       IND & CHI & CIN to have a worse record compared to 2012.  As mentioned above and in other articles we are extremely bearish on the Colts as 2013 approaches.  CHI, led by a Top 5 defense, has changed HC and resides in the tough, deep NFC North – so I will concur with the premise suggested here that CHI will win 9 or fewer games in 2013.  Lastly, the Bengals have enjoyed a playoff berth in each of the last two seasons, both times falling to the Texans in the Wild Card round…..this year I do not expect them to be as successful, as they will fail to reach double digit wins.

o       NO & CAR & TB & DAL & DET will have a better record.  Although the numbers suggest this, it’s hard to envision a scenario where 3 of the 4 NFC South teams enjoy an increase in their win totals from 2012 – hence, we will back the first two NO & CAR, leaving TB off the official projection list.  The Saints are a team to be bullish on because the impact HC Sean Payton’s suspension had on this team was visible – just like the favorable impact he will have this season.  CAR suffered through multiple close losses early last season, and although QB Cam Newton struggled some in his 2^nd season, I look for him to use that as a launching pad onto bigger and brighter things in 2013.  DAL was once again stuck at 8 wins, although their yards per play metric ranked 9^th in the NFL, suggesting a potential double digit win team.  With the heat turned way up on HC Jason Garrett & newly minted QB Tony Romo, I do finally expect DAL to contend for a playoff berth in 2013, breaking through the .500 mark.  DET shows up once again in one of our leading indicators as a team who should enjoy more success in 2013, and we completely back that projection here.

3.      First Downs per Game: another straight forward calculation or stat you can pull from just about any website, this gives a good idea of the consistency and success teams have a moving the ball, and hence scoring points.  While the big play isn’t captured in this metric, they are few and far between – and a much more favorable way to measure the consistency of an offense is by their success picking up first downs. 

o       Last year we were correct on 3 of 3 projections

·          Based upon 2012 figures, for the 2013 season we expect to see:

o       CIN & CHI to have a worse record

o       DET & NO to have a better record

As mentioned in the beginning of this post, Turnover Margin is the other leading indicator I use, but it will not be discussed here today.  I will feature an entire blog entry on this topic in the coming weeks, and trust me when I tell you that is a must read for any football handicapper.

COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2013