NFL 2012 Season in Review: Profitable ATS Trends

In this article I will discuss some of the more profitable ATS trends some find useful as part of their handicapping exercise.  I particularly do not hold a lot of value in using these trends, but no question they can add value as a small piece of the handicapping puzzle – in particular, looking for team’s that have not had a lot of personnel turnover, especially focusing on coaching staff’s and QB’s.  Overall, I consider 4 years to be the absolute max trends such as this do stay somewhat relevant, but that estimation is flexible depending on many factors.

Legend: home favorites (HF), home underdogs (HD), road favorites (RF), road underdogs (RD)

		4 YEARS : ''08-'11					2012
			ATS				ATS
TEAM		TREND	W/L	WIN %	NOTES		W/L	WIN %	NOTES
NE	*	RD	6-2	75%			1-0	100%
NYJ	*	HF	11-16	41%			2-3	40%
NYJ	*	HD	4-1	80%	W 4 of 5 SU		1-2	33%	W 0 of 3 SU
PIT	*	RF	8-12	40%			1-4	20%
PIT	*	HD	2-0	100%	W 2 of 2 SU		-	-
PIT	*	RD	7-4	64%			2-1	67%	W 2 of 3 SU
BAL	*	HF	17-10	63%	W 25 of 27 SU		2-4	33%	W 5 of 6 SU
BAL	*	RD	10-7	59%			1-3	25%	W 0 of 4 SU
NYG	*	HF	12-16	43%			4-4	50%	W 6 of 8 SU
NYG	*	Road	18-13	58%			4-4	50%	W 3 of 8 SU
DAL	*	HF	12-17	41%			0-6	0%	W 3 of 6 SU
DAL	*	RF	6-10	38%			2-1	67%	W 2 of 3 SU
DAL	*	Favorite	18-27	40%			2-7	22%	W 5 of 9 SU
GB	*	HF	17-11	61%			5-3	63%	W 7 of 8 SU
GB	*	RF	12-9	57%			3-3	50%
GB	*	Favorite	29-20	59%			8-6	57%
GB	*	HD	3-0	100%			-	-
GB	*	RD	7-5	58%			1-1	50%
GB	*	Underdog	10-5	67%			1-1	50%
GB	*	Road	19-14	58%			4-4	50%
GB	*	Home	20-11	65%			5-3	63%
ATL	*	HF	19-8	70%			4-4	50%	W 7 of 8 SU
ATL	*	RF	9-5	64%			3-2	60%	W 4 of 5 SU
ATL	*	Favorite	28-13	68%			7-6	54%	W 11 of 13 SU
SD	*	RF	6-15	29%			1-1	50%
SD	*	RD	8-3	73%	W 6 of 11 SU		4-2	67%	W 3 of 6 SU
PHI	*	RD	6-3	67%	W 5 of 9 SU		3-3	50%	W 1 of 6 SU
CHI		RF	5-2	71%			3-2	60%	W 4 of 5 SU
CHI		RD	8-14	36%			1-2	33%	W 1 of 3 SU
NO	*	HF	19-9	68%	W 24 of 28 SU		2-3	40%	W 2 of 5 SU
NO	*	Favorite	30-18	63%			4-4	50%	W 4 of 8 SU
MIA		HF	7-12	37%			2-2	50%
MIA		HD	4-8	33%			2-1	67%
MIA		Home	11-20	35%			4-3	57%
MIA		RD	19-7	73%	W 13 of 26 SU		2-5	29%	W 2 of 7 SU
BUF		HF	6-10	38%			4-2	67%
CIN		HF	5-11	31%			2-3	40%	W 3 of 5 SU
CLE		HF	3-7	30%			1-1	50%
IND		RF	11-5	69%			2-0	100%
JAC		HF	6-11	35%			0-1	0%
JAC		HD	6-9	40%			2-5	29%	W 1 of 7 SU
JAC		Home	12-20	38%			2-6	25%
JAC		RD	11-16	41%			5-3	63%	W 1 of 8 SU
JAC		Underdog	17-25	40%			7-8	47%
DEN		HF	2-15	12%			5-2	71%	W 7 of 7 SU
KC		HF	3-10	23%			0-1	0%
KC		RF	1-2	33%			-	-
KC		Favorite	4-12	25%			0-1	0%
KC		RD	18-11	62%			2-6	25%
KC		HD	11-8	58%			3-4	43%
KC		Underdog	29-19	60%			5-10	33%
WAS		HF	2-8	20%			3-2	60%	W 3 of 5 SU
MIN		RD	9-13	41%			3-3	50%	W 3 of 6 SU
TB		HD	2-12	14%	W 2 of 14 SU		1-1	50%
TB		RD	16-12	57%			6-1	86%	W 3 of 7 SU
CAR		RF	5-0	100%			1-2	33%	W 1 of 3 SU
CAR		Favorite	17-9	65%			2-4	33%	W 1 of 3 SU
CAR		HD	3-7	30%			2-3	40%	W 2 of 5 SU
CAR		RD	10-17	37%			5-0	100%	W 3 of 5 SU
CAR		Underdog	13-24	35%	W 9 of 37 SU		7-3	70%	W 5 of 10 SU
SF		HF	15-6	71%	W 17 of 21 SU		3-5	38%	W 6 of 8 SU
SF		RD	12-8	60%			2-1	67%	W 2 of 3 SU
SEA		RD	9-19	32%			3-1	75%	W 2 of 4 SU
STL		HD	11-15	42%			4-2	67%	W 4 of 6 SU
STL		RD	12-18	40%			7-1	88%	W 3 of 8 SU
STL		Underdog	23-33	41%	W 9 of 56 SU		11-3	79%	W 7 of 14 SU

*indicates teams I identified before last season where I felt these ATS trends would be of the highest relevance.

Review & Analysis of 2012 Regular Season results

This analysis once again proved to be profitable and spot on for the most part, adding to our successful preview articles we published before last season. 

In the matrix above I have split the teams in three buckets:

• the first bucket (NE, NYJ, PIT, BAL, NYG, DAL, GB, ATL) were teams I identified where these ATS trends were reliable, and these teams did not suffer any last second changes to their status before the 2012 regular season began
• the second bucket (SD, PHI, CHI, NO) consists of three teams I identified as having reliable ATS trends going into the 2012 season, but they had either a significant event occur last season or this past offseason which shifts them down a notch from the first bucket teams
• the third bucket is the remaining NFL teams and they all have not had enough consistency in key areas of their franchise to make these ATS trends too reliable when using them in a vacuum

When examining the first bucket teams, which are the teams these trends hold the highest significance with, the results were extremely favorable if you had strictly bet in the situations mentioned.  Overall this group had 11 winning trends vs. 4 losing trends, a solid, profitable performance (when calculating the 11-4 mark I have removed all trends where there were no instances in 2012 such as PIT as a home underdog, and also removed all situations where a team went exactly .500 during the 2012 regular season in a specific trend – for example NYG went 4-4 as home favorites & in road games).  Of the 8 teams listed in the first bucket, NE & PIT & GB & ATL all did not have a losing record in any one trend I identified, while the NYG went .500 in both so they were a wash; on the flip side Super Bowl Champion BAL posted a losing ATS record in both trends I identified for them, while NYJ & DAL each posted one losing trend mark (both of which were just one game under .500).  In summary of the first bucket teams we can see there are clear indicators of success or failure when simply breaking their ATS records into four high level categories (HF, HD, RF, RD) – which intuitively makes sense because these are some of the more stable, successful franchises in the NFL and their performance in certain spots over the years is more consistent than some may think.

Moving down to the second bucket teams, which is the last bucket we would suggest using trends such as these, there was more success as this group posted a mark of 3 winning trends vs. 1 losing trend.  CHI posted a perfect 2-0 mark as they performed well as a road favorite (a spot they have been solid in over 2008 to 2011 going 5-2 ATS), and they also performed subpar as a road underdog (a spot they have been losing in over 2008 to 2011 going just 8-14 ATS); SD continued playing well as a RD moving to 12-5 ATS over the last 5 full regular seasons; and NO was the lone losing proposition in this bucket as they posted just a 2-3 mark as a HF, an area they typically excelled posting a 19-9 mark from 2008 to 2011.  One key point in this grouping is all these teams either suffered a change of status before last season started (after I posted this article last summer), or over this most recent offseason:

• SD: fired HC Norv Turner, new HC is former DEN OC Mike McCoy
• PHI: fired HC Andy Reid, new HC is former Oregon HC Chip Kelly
• CHI: fired HC Lovie Smith, new HC is former CFL HC & NFL OC Marc Trestman
• NO: lost HC Sean Payton for the 2012 regular season due to suspension; he returns in 2013

The third bucket, which includes the remaining 20 NFL teams has not had enough consistency in key areas across the team and organization for these types of trends to hold a lot of relevance.  However, teams can slide up or down going into any season – more on this when we post our 2013 ATS Trends article, which will be coming out shortly.

Here we reviewed another preview article we posted heading into the 2012 regular season, and once again we hit a HOME RUN by identifying key & profitable ATS trends, properly grouping teams where they were relevant, leading to more winnings for our followers.  Of the 5 losing trends we identified from teams in bucket’s 1&2, three were just one game below .500, and the other pair were just two games below .500 – extremely close to being winners as well!

Check back next week when we continue our review of 2012 preview articles, and of course continue adding 2013 preview articles where we identify key areas/metrics to focus on when it’s time to handicap the games for this upcoming season.

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