Monday, May 4, 2015

NBA 2014-2015: FINAL Power Ratings [SBPI] for Regular Season



Here is our FINAL REGULAR SEASON installment of the NBA SBPI [SportsBoss Power Index] for the 2014-2015 season.  I did not share this model during the regular season as my selections are heavily dependent on these numbers & I finished the regular season #1 at my monitor with a record of 162-122 / 57.0%.

As a reminder this model uses the Four Factors analysis as a basis to measure team effectiveness & efficiency in key statistical areas.  New this season I have added in a solid metric for SOS, along with adjusting the ratings to better tie into my indices in other sports where higher marks are better scores (if you look back at last season I used the reverse for the NBA where lower grades were better).  Here is where each team stands:
POWER
HOME
ROAD
Team
RATING
RATING
RATING
Golden State
100.7
105.2
100.7
L.A. Clippers
97.5
101.0
97.5
San Antonio
95.1
99.1
95.1
Atlanta
95.0
99.0
95.0
Dallas
94.7
97.7
94.7
Memphis
93.7
97.2
93.7
Houston
92.9
96.4
92.9
Toronto
92.5
95.5
92.5
Milwaukee
91.9
94.4
91.9
Portland
91.9
95.4
91.9
Cleveland
91.7
95.2
91.7
Washington
91.6
95.1
91.6
Boston
91.0
93.5
91.0
Oklahoma City
90.8
94.3
90.8
Chicago
90.3
93.3
90.3
Phoenix
90.3
92.8
90.3
Detroit
90.2
92.2
90.2
New Orleans
90.1
93.1
90.1
Indiana
89.5
92.0
89.5
Utah
89.3
91.8
89.3
Charlotte
88.2
90.2
88.2
Denver
87.6
89.6
87.6
Miami
87.3
89.3
87.3
Brooklyn
87.1
89.1
87.1
Orlando
86.0
88.0
86.0
L.A. Lakers
84.8
86.8
84.8
Sacramento
83.1
85.1
83.1
Philadelphia
82.7
84.7
82.7
New York
81.6
83.6
81.6
Minnesota
80.8
82.8
80.8

Let’s take a closer look at the above ratings, and provide some color behind a few teams that “stand out” for seemingly rating higher or lower than expected.

Golden State Warriors: why are they colored yellow?  That is because they have the highest rating in my model of any team as far as I tested back which is the 2002-2003 season.  Here are the Top 5 teams using my model over these last 13 seasons with rating, actual record & season result:
1.       Golden State Warriors ’14-’15: 100.7 / 67-15 / unknown outcome but current favorites
2.       Boston Celtics ’07-’08: 100.0 / 66-16 / NBA Champions
3.       Cleveland Cavaliers ’08-’09: 99.6 / 66-16 / lost in Eastern Conference Finals
4.       San Antonio Spurs ’04-’05: 99.3 / 59-23 / NBA Champions
5.       Dallas Mavericks ’02-’03: 98.7 / 60-22 / lost in Western Conference Finals to eventual champions

How strong is this Warriors team?  My model would have them favored holding other variables constant against any other NBA team playing in any stadium besides at the Staples Center vs. the LA Clippers which I would have as a Pick.
Atlanta Hawks: the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference is the only team from that “weaker” conference to settle into the Top 7 of the NBA.  At home I would have them as a favorite against every other team in the NBA besides Golden State; in that matchup I would install the Warriors as a 1.5/2 point favorite.

Dallas Mavericks: the Mavs check in higher than everyone including myself would expect.  Most of their strength is driven by how well they take care of the basketball; that being said their shooting % on both ends of the floor was only better than the Grizzlies among Western Conference playoff teams hence their early dismissal at the hands of #7 Houston.

#2 LA Clippers vs. #3 San Antonio Spurs: as many of us thought when the brackets came out and through the series these teams should not have met in the 1st round according to talent & the old eye test.  However that is the way the bracket shook out and the Clippers wound up beating the Spurs in a classic Game 7 Saturday night.  If Chris Paul can get healthy LA could pose a threat to the Warriors – right now my model would set those lines at a Pick in LA & Golden State -7.5 at home.

Playoffs: the lowest ranked team to make the playoffs was Brooklyn who checked in at #24, sandwiched between #23 Miami & #25 Orlando.  The lowest ranked team to win their first round series was Chicago, who finished at #15.  Using the SBPI rankings here is what the 2nd round matchups look like:

#11 Cleveland vs. #15 Chicago
#4 Atlanta vs. #12 Washington
#2 LA Clippers vs. #7 Houston
#1 Golden State vs. #6 Memphis

Non-Playoff teams: here are the rankings of the teams who missed the playoffs:

#14 Oklahoma City
#16 Phoenix
#17 Detroit
#19 Indiana
#20 Utah
#21 Charlotte
#22 Denver
#23 Miami
#25 Orlando
#26 LA Lakers
#27 Sacramento
#28 Philadelphia
#29 New York
#30 Minnesota

No surprise the bottom 10 teams along with Detroit, Boston & Memphis had negative ratings according to my shooting categories.  Sacramento & Utah both were crushed by awful turnover margins (as was Chicago which could make them a very dangerous team in the playoffs if Rose can play starter’s minutes) – they would seemingly be in the market to grab a PG.  

Thanks for reading.  By next week I will post a playoff’s only power ratings that will isolate performance using my system in the small sample size that is the playoff’s to date.

Email me directly: boss@thesportsboss.com
Visit my website: www.thesportsboss.com
Follow me on Twitter: @SportsBoss


COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2015
Posted by The SportsBoss at 4:04 PM

No comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)