This is our sixth installment of bracketology for the 2015
NCAA Tournament and comes as we finally turn the calendar to March! With that in mind we also give a breakdown of
each conference that is likely to receive just one bid, examining where, when,
and the format of their conference tournaments.
Remember, the format of some of these tournaments is massive & gives
huge edges to teams that finished higher in standings – become familiar with a
tournament’s layout before playing odds on a team to win their conference’s
automatic bid!
Below each conference is broken into THREE buckets:
1) Automatic Bid
2) Looking Good [teams highly
likely to play well enough in the regular season to earn a bid]
3) Need Wins [teams that are firmly
on the bubble and will need to play well to close their season]
**Teams are listed in
the s-curve order I see them now within conference with SBPI rank shown first
[pure stats based ranking which should be a better projection than RPI of
performance moving forward] and RPI rank shown second for each team**
**One bid conference
projected automatic bid winners are highest SBPI team remaining in tournament**
America East: Stony
Brook #170/#115
When:
March 8, 14
Where: Campus sites at highest seed
Teams
Remaining: #1 Albany, #2 Vermont, #3 Stony Brook, #4 New Hampshire
American Athletic:
SMU #51/#19
Need Wins: Cincinnati #77/#38, Temple
#56/#35, Tulsa #79/#47
Atlantic Ten: VCU
#11/#17
Looking Good: Dayton
#47/#28
Need Wins: Davidson
#74/#30, Rhode Island #66/#67
ACC: Duke #4/#5
Looking Good: Virginia #19/#3, North
Carolina #13/#12, Notre Dame #69/#24, Louisville #9/#21
Need Wins: NC State #27/#45, Miami
#53/#64, Pittsburgh #45/#59
Atlantic Sun: North
Florida #212/#177
When:
March 8
Where: Campus sites at highest seed
Teams
Remaining: #1 North Florida, #3 USC Upstate
Big 12: Kansas #10/#2
Looking Good: Oklahoma #15/#18,
Baylor #5/#10, Iowa State #16/#14, West Virginia #6/#23
Need Wins: Oklahoma State #26/#42, Texas
#25/#39
Big East: Villanova
#2/#4
Looking Good: Providence #14/#20,
Georgetown #22/#22, Butler #8/#26, St. John’s #55/#33
Need Wins: Xavier #17/#41
Big Sky: Northern
Arizona #176/#182
When:
March 12, 13, 14
Where:
Hosted by Regular Season champion
Format:
Eight teams in straight single elimination tournament (bottom 4 teams in
standings will not participate)
Big South: Charleston
Southern #150/#137
When:
March 6, 7, 8
Where:
HTC Center (Coastal Carolina)
Teams
Remaining: Top 7 seeds & #9 Longwood
Big Ten: Wisconsin
#7/#6
Looking Good: Maryland #58/#9,
Michigan St. #30/#29, Ohio St. #18/#32
Need Wins: Iowa #20/#36, Indiana
#48/#51, Illinois #33/#58, Purdue #44/#63
Big West: UCSB #83/#86
When:
March 12, 13, 14
Where:
Honda Center (Anaheim, California)
Format:
Eight teams in single elimination tournament (Cal State Fullerton is 9th
team in conference that finished in last place & will not
participate). Teams are re-seeded for
semifinals.
Colonial: UNC
Wilmington #138/#138
When:
March 6, 7, 8, 9
Where:
Royal Farms Arena (Baltimore, Maryland)
Format:
Bottom 4 teams play 1st round followed by Top 6 & 2 winners from
1st round playing in straight single elimination tournament going
forward
Conference USA: Old
Dominion #95/#46
When:
March 11, 12, 13, 14
Where:
Birmingham-Jefferson Convention Complex (Birmingham, Alabama)
Format:
Bottom 8 teams play 1st round (Southern Mississippi will not
participate due to self-imposed sanctions; Florida Atlantic, who finished in
last place, will also not participate) followed by Top 4 & 4 winners from 1st
round playing in straight single elimination tournament going forward
Horizon: Green Bay
#81/#60
When:
March 6, 7, 10
Where:
1st Round at campus site of higher seed; 2nd Round &
Semifinals at Valparaiso; Championship at campus site of higher seed
Format:
#6 seed vs. #3 (Oakland) & #5 seed vs. #4 (Cleveland State); those 2
winners move onto semifinals to face seeds #1 (Valparaiso) & #2 (Green Bay)
with winners of those games meeting in championship
Teams
Remaining: Top 6 seeds
Ivy: Yale #54/#69:
NO POSTSEASON TOURNAMENT
MAAC: Canisius #173/#168
When:
March 7, 8, 9
Where:
Times Union Center (Siena College)
Teams
Remaining: Top 5, #7 St. Peter’s, #8 Siena, #11 Marist
MAC: Buffalo #50/#37
When: March
9, 11, 12, 13, 14
Where:
1st Round at campus site of higher seed; remainder at Quicken Loans
Arena (Cleveland, Ohio)
Format:
Bottom 8 teams play 1st & 2nd Rounds until 2 teams
advance. Those 2 winners face seeds #3
& #4 in quarterfinals; those 2 winners then face seeds #1 & #2 in
semifinals (to confirm the top 2 seeds receive byes to semifinals)
MEAC: Norfolk
State #240/#159
When:
March 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14
Where:
Norfolk Scope (Norfolk State)
Format:
Bottom 8 teams play 1st round (Florida A&M will not participate
following finishing in last place) followed by Top 4 & 4 winners from 1st
round playing in straight single elimination tournament going forward
Missouri Valley: Wichita
State #23/#11
Looking Good: Northern Iowa #78/#15
Mountain West: San
Diego State #41/#25
Need Wins: Colorado State #84/#27,
Boise State #60/#40
Northeast: St.
Francis NY #207/#164
When:
March 7, 10
Where:
Campus sites at highest seed
Teams
Remaining: #1 St. Francis (NY), #2 Robert Morris, #3 Bryant, #5 St. Francis
(PA)
Ohio Valley: Morehead
State #109/#210
When:
March 6, 7
Where:
Nashville Municipal Auditorium
Teams
Remaining: #1 Murray State, #2 Eastern Kentucky, #3 Belmont, #5 Morehead State
Pac 12: Arizona #3/#7
Looking Good: Utah #12/#13, Oregon
#71/#31
Need Wins: UCLA #34/#52, Stanford #32/#65
Patriot: American
#184/#144
When:
March 8, 11
Where:
Campus sites at highest seed
Teams
Remaining: #1 Bucknell, #2 Colgate, #4 Lafayette, #6 American
SEC: Kentucky #1/#1
Looking Good: Arkansas #24/#16
Need Wins: Georgia #38/#34, Ole Miss
#43/#43, Texas A&M #39/#48, LSU #72/#53
Southern: Wofford
#132/#49
When:
March 6, 7, 8, 9
Where:
U.S. Cellular Center (Asheville, North Carolina)
Format:
Bottom 4 teams play 1st round followed by Top 6 & 2 winners from
1st round playing in straight single elimination tournament going
forward
Southland: Stephen
F. Austin #112/#55
When:
March 11, 12, 13, 14
Where:
Merrell Center (Katy, Texas)
Format:
Bottom 4 teams play 1st Round (Incarnate Word, Lamar, Houston
Baptist, Abilene Christian & Central Arkansas all ineligible); those 2
winners face seeds #3 & #4 in quarterfinals; those 2 winners then face
seeds #1 & #2 in semifinals (to confirm the top 2 seeds receive byes to
semifinals)
SWAC: Texas
Southern #283/#141
When:
March 10, 11, 12, 13, 14
Where:
Toyota Center (Houston, Texas)
Format:
Bottom 2 teams play in 1st Round (Alabama State & Southern are
ineligible) with that winner joining the Top 7 seeds in quarterfinals playing
in straight single elimination tournament going forward
Summit: Oral
Roberts #134/#157
When: March
7, 8, 9, 10
Where: Premier
Center (Sioux Falls, South Dakota)
Format:
Eight teams in single elimination tournament (Western Illinois is 9th
team in conference that finished in last place & will not participate)
Sun Belt: UL-Lafayette
#139/#162
When:
March 12, 13, 14, 15
Where:
Lakefront Arena (New Orleans, Louisiana)
Format:
Bottom 4 teams play 1st Round (Appalachian State is ineligible; one
more school will also not participate); those 2 winners face seeds #3 & #4
in quarterfinals; those 2 winners then face seeds #1 & #2 in semifinals (to
confirm the top 2 seeds receive byes to semifinals)
West Coast: Gonzaga
#29/#8
Need Wins: BYU #31/#44
WAC: New Mexico
State #158/#114
When:
March 12, 13, 14
Where:
Orleans Arena (Las Vegas, Nevada)
Format:
Seven teams take part (Grand Canyon will not participate) with bottom 6
matching up in quarterfinals (#1 seed New Mexico State has bye till semifinals)
followed by straight single elimination tournament going forward
FIELD: 68
AUTOMATIC BIDS: 32
LOOKING GOOD: 20
Currently I project 52
of the 68 bids are
earned.
NEED WINS: 24
As of this moment we have 24 teams battling for those last
16 bids that remain “open”
Keep in mind however that DOES NOT include the upsets we will see during Conference
Tournament week where teams that are LOCKS
from smaller conferences lose a game in their conference tournament and hence use
an at-large bid on themselves.
For the remaining 16 open bids this is the way I see it
currently (listed in conference alphabetical order applying s-curve within
conference; teams highlighted in yellow are LAST FIVE IN):
|
TEAM
|
REC
|
C REC
|
1-25
|
26-50
|
51-100
|
ROAD
|
NEU
|
SOS
|
NC SOS
|
BEST WIN
|
TOP NC WIN
|
|
CINCINNATI
|
21-9
|
12-5
|
3-1
|
3-3
|
1-2
|
6-5
|
1-1
|
57
|
29
|
2X 19 SMU
|
25 SDST
|
|
TEMPLE
|
21-9
|
12-5
|
1-4
|
1-3
|
3-1
|
7-5
|
1-2
|
72
|
55
|
2 KAN
|
2 KAN
|
|
DAVIDSON
|
21-6
|
13-4
|
1-3
|
1-0
|
5-1
|
8-4
|
0-1
|
121
|
243
|
17 VCU
|
138 UNCW
|
|
NC STATE
|
18-12
|
9-8
|
3-5
|
1-2
|
5-3
|
5-5
|
0-1
|
6
|
25
|
5 DUKE
|
40 BOISE
|
|
OKLAHOMA ST
|
17-11
|
8-9
|
3-7
|
3-0
|
2-1
|
3-7
|
3-0
|
22
|
157
|
2 KAN
|
47 TUL
|
|
XAVIER
|
18-12
|
8-9
|
3-3
|
2-3
|
4-2
|
4-7
|
1-2
|
15
|
50
|
20 PROV
|
@ 38 CIN
|
|
IOWA
|
20-10
|
11-6
|
2-4
|
2-2
|
4-3
|
7-3
|
0-3
|
25
|
111
|
9 MARY
|
@12 UNC
|
|
INDIANA
|
19-11
|
9-8
|
2-4
|
2-3
|
4-3
|
3-6
|
1-2
|
31
|
113
|
9 MARY
|
19 SMU
|
|
ILLINOIS
|
19-11
|
9-8
|
2-2
|
1-4
|
2-4
|
2-7
|
3-2
|
62
|
160
|
9 MARY
|
10 BAY
|
|
COLORADO ST.
|
24-5
|
12-5
|
1-1
|
1-1
|
4-2
|
7-4
|
3-0
|
129
|
89
|
25 SDST
|
72 UTEP
|
|
BOISE STATE
|
21-7
|
13-4
|
2-1
|
1-2
|
3-1
|
8-5
|
3-1
|
126
|
174
|
2X 25 SDST
|
@61 STM
|
|
GEORGIA
|
19-10
|
10-7
|
0-4
|
3-0
|
5-2
|
7-4
|
0-2
|
27
|
78
|
2X 43 O MISS
|
77 FLA
|
|
OLE MISS
|
20-10
|
11-6
|
1-2
|
3-3
|
4-2
|
8-4
|
3-0
|
37
|
71
|
@16 ARK
|
@31 OREG
|
|
TEXAS A&M
|
20-9
|
11-6
|
0-3
|
0-3
|
6-3
|
5-5
|
2-2
|
89
|
135
|
2X 53 LSU
|
87 ASU
|
|
LSU
|
21-9
|
10-7
|
1-1
|
3-3
|
6-2
|
7-3
|
1-2
|
94
|
169
|
@23 WVU
|
@23 WVU
|
|
BYU
|
21-8
|
13-5
|
1-3
|
0-0
|
3-2
|
8-3
|
1-2
|
80
|
21
|
@8 GONZ
|
65 STAN
|
FIRST FIVE OUT –
alphabetical order by conference:
Miami, FL
Pittsburgh
Texas
Purdue
UCLA
Multiple bid conferences
(total of 47 bids in 11 conferences; 21 single bid conferences = 68 bids):
B10 (7)
ACC (6)
BE (6)
SEC (6)
B12 (6)
P12 (3)
AAC (3)
A10 (3)
MWC (3)
MVC (2)
WCC (2)
KEY GAMES TO CLOSE
REGULAR SEASON:
March 7:
Miami, Fla at Virginia Tech: Miami needs a win
Pittsburgh at Florida State: Pittsburgh needs a win
Oklahoma State at West Virginia: Cowboys need a win
Kansas State at Texas: Longhorns need a win
Xavier at Creighton: Xavier needs a win
Michigan State at Indiana: Hoosiers need a win
Illinois at Purdue: probably biggest game of weekend, both
teams need a win
Colorado State at Utah State: Rams need a win
Stanford at Arizona: Stanford needs a win to get back into
the mix
Georgia at Auburn: Bulldogs need a win
Alabama at Texas A&M: Aggies need a win
LSU at Arkansas: LSU needs a win
March 8:
Tulsa at SMU: Tulsa needs a win to stay in the mix
Thanks again for reading, please feel free to:
Email me directly: boss@thesportsboss.com
Visit my website: www.thesportsboss.com
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COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2015
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