After ten weeks of action we still have the Denver Broncos
leading the performance ratings, but have three teams just behind them followed
by a huge drop-off to the 5th rated team Cincinnati. Eight of the top twelve teams reside in the
NFC including three of the top four.
Performance Ratings (max grade is 160, 80 on offense and 80
on defense, calculated using 16 different stats with 5 points per stat being
the best score = 16x5 = 80).
|
OFFENSE
|
DEFENSE
|
TOTAL
TEAM
|
Blended
|
||||||||||
|
Wins
|
Rating
|
Rank
|
Rating
|
Rank
|
Rating
|
Rank
|
SOS
|
TOM
|
|||||
|
8
|
DEN
|
56.1
|
1
|
41.9
|
12
|
97.9
|
1
|
29
|
(2)
|
||||
|
7
|
NO
|
50.2
|
3
|
45.4
|
7
|
95.6
|
2
|
28
|
5
|
||||
|
6
|
CAR
|
46.2
|
10
|
49.0
|
1
|
95.2
|
3
|
31
|
8
|
||||
|
9
|
SEA
|
48.1
|
7
|
46.7
|
4
|
94.8
|
4
|
25
|
7
|
||||
|
6
|
CIN
|
42.0
|
13
|
47.3
|
3
|
89.3
|
5
|
22
|
(4)
|
||||
|
6
|
DET
|
48.9
|
5
|
40.1
|
19
|
89.0
|
6
|
18
|
1
|
||||
|
9
|
KC
|
39.8
|
16
|
48.4
|
2
|
88.2
|
7
|
32
|
15
|
||||
|
5
|
GB
|
51.1
|
2
|
36.9
|
24
|
87.9
|
8
|
11
|
(4)
|
||||
|
2
|
HOU
|
42.0
|
13
|
44.9
|
8
|
86.9
|
9
|
7
|
(9)
|
||||
|
6
|
SF
|
42.2
|
12
|
43.8
|
9
|
86.0
|
10
|
14
|
4
|
||||
|
3
|
WAS
|
48.7
|
6
|
33.1
|
26
|
81.8
|
11
|
6
|
(1)
|
||||
|
5
|
PHI
|
46.8
|
9
|
34.6
|
25
|
81.4
|
12
|
30
|
2
|
||||
|
5
|
NYJ
|
34.1
|
27
|
46.6
|
5
|
80.7
|
13
|
26
|
(10)
|
||||
|
6
|
IND
|
42.4
|
11
|
37.8
|
21
|
80.2
|
14
|
13
|
3
|
||||
|
4
|
SD
|
49.2
|
4
|
31.0
|
29
|
80.2
|
14
|
23
|
(6)
|
||||
|
5
|
CHI
|
48.0
|
8
|
31.6
|
27
|
79.6
|
16
|
10
|
8
|
||||
|
7
|
NE
|
38.6
|
17
|
40.8
|
13
|
79.4
|
17
|
27
|
7
|
||||
|
4
|
TEN
|
37.4
|
21
|
40.7
|
15
|
78.1
|
18
|
3
|
4
|
||||
|
5
|
ARI
|
35.0
|
23
|
42.3
|
11
|
77.3
|
19
|
5
|
(1)
|
||||
|
3
|
PIT
|
36.3
|
22
|
40.4
|
17
|
76.8
|
20
|
20
|
(11)
|
||||
|
4
|
BAL
|
30.3
|
30
|
45.9
|
6
|
76.2
|
21
|
19
|
(3)
|
||||
|
3
|
BUF
|
34.9
|
24
|
40.8
|
14
|
75.7
|
22
|
8
|
(1)
|
||||
|
4
|
STL
|
38.2
|
20
|
37.5
|
22
|
75.6
|
23
|
24
|
5
|
||||
|
4
|
CLE
|
32.3
|
29
|
42.4
|
10
|
74.8
|
24
|
21
|
(1)
|
||||
|
4
|
MIA
|
34.2
|
26
|
40.4
|
17
|
74.7
|
25
|
16
|
0
|
||||
|
3
|
OAK
|
34.8
|
25
|
39.6
|
20
|
74.3
|
26
|
9
|
(1)
|
||||
|
5
|
DAL
|
39.8
|
15
|
31.6
|
28
|
71.4
|
27
|
18
|
11
|
||||
|
3
|
NYG
|
29.7
|
31
|
40.7
|
15
|
70.3
|
28
|
5
|
(13)
|
||||
|
1
|
TB
|
33.3
|
28
|
36.9
|
23
|
70.2
|
29
|
2
|
2
|
||||
|
2
|
ATL
|
38.5
|
18
|
30.4
|
30
|
68.9
|
30
|
12
|
(6)
|
||||
|
2
|
MIN
|
38.4
|
19
|
28.2
|
31
|
66.7
|
31
|
15
|
(4)
|
||||
|
1
|
JAC
|
23.5
|
32
|
26.4
|
32
|
49.9
|
32
|
1
|
(5)
|
||||
This week let’s examine some of the biggest outliers when it
comes to record versus performance.
Dallas is easily the team that stands out the most as they rate just 27th
but have posted a 5-5 mark to date. We
can see right off the bat their +11 TOM has been a critical driver to their
success – they are 1-3 when they are even or negative in TOM compared to 4-2
when positive. In addition they are 0-4
versus teams rated in the top 10 of the performance ratings compared to 5-1
facing teams sub top ten. More
specifically when examining their performance they are 0-4 when facing one of
the top six pass offenses in the NFL. It
may remain an uphill battle for the Cowboys this season as their remaining
schedule is ranked 6th overall including 7th versus
passing offenses and 5th versus total offense. Right behind the Cowboys in the overachieving
column are the New England Patriots who check in at 17th in the
ratings versus the 6th easiest schedule – but they have posted a 7-2
mark to date. The Patriots offense rates
just 17th in the NFL, behind the likes of Kansas City, Houston, San
Francisco and Carolina to name a few.
That is not a good sign in today’s offense happy NFL, but even more so
because the Patriots will face the toughest schedule of opponent defense over
the final 7 weeks of the regular season – including the toughest schedule
versus opponent pass defense, rush defense and miscellaneous defense! To date they have faced the 12th
toughest schedule of opponent defense, so expecting their offensive numbers to
improve dramatically even after the demolition they put on the Steelers in
their last outing may prove incorrect unless they continue to post a strong
TOM. On the flip side a team that may be
undervalued some is Washington as they check in at #11 in the ratings, but
because of an SOS rated #6, and a negative TOM they have just 3 wins on the
season. With the health of Griffin III
improving by the week the offense has posted the 6th best rating to
date; the defense has been the issue checking in at #26. But there is reason for optimism, not only
because the NFC East is not any good, but because to date they have faced the
toughest schedule of opponent offenses; over their final 7 weeks of the season
that number dramatically shifts to the 26th rated schedule of
opponent offenses! In addition to that
note on SOS they also will face the easiest closing schedule in the NFL
including 4 divisional contests and four home games. Washington is 2-0 on the season when holding
opponents to 26pts or less – which is a very modest point total – so keep an
eye on the Skins as they attempt to defend their NFC East title. The last potentially bullish teams I will examine
here are the three 6 win teams that check in at #3, 5, and 6 in this week’s
performance ratings. The Panthers have
been ranked in my top 3 teams the last four weeks, and been inside the top 8
the last seven weeks, but until last week’s win at SF they were not receiving
much recognition. Carolina was one of my
top sleeper picks this summer, and has been even better than I expected posting
a 6-3 mark along with the #1 defense in the NFL. Over their final 7 games Carolina will face
just the 23rd toughest schedule of opponent offenses, which should
further solidify their spot near the top of the NFL as measured by total
defense; on the flip side although they will face a tougher schedule of
defenses they do face the easiest schedule of opponent rush defense to close –
which should also lock up their playoff spot being such a strong rushing
team. Expect Carolina to at best win the
NFC South; at worst secure a Wild Card berth.
Cincinnati checks in at #5 despite back to back tough losses in OT. Cincinnati has 4 losses on the season, three
of which came by 3pts or less – so many in the media discounting their record
and efforts over the last two weeks appear misguided. TOM has proved a critical metric for their
success as they are 0-3 when posting a negative margin versus 6-1 when even or
positive. Andy Dalton has a ratio of 4/9
in their 4 losses, clearly a spot he must improve upon if the Bengals are to
finally make some noise come January.
Cincinnati will face a remaining schedule similar to what they have thus
far – if they can take care of the football, and win more of those close games,
expect them to win the NFC North.
Detroit has taken over sole possession of the lead in the NFC North, and
checks in at #6 in my performance ratings, buoyed by an offense that rates #5
in the NFL. Passing is the name of the
game in today’s NFL and Matthew Stafford is playing better than any current NFC
North QB, hence why the Lions find themselves at the top of their
division. And only better times may be
ahead for these Lions as their closing schedule ranks amongst the easiest in
the entire NFL at #29 including #28 versus opponent offenses and #30 versus
opponent defenses. What’s more they also
face the 31st rated schedule of opponent pass defense! I projected the Lions to also be one of my
top sleeper teams this summer, and they have not disappointed to date; I also
have projected them to reach the playoffs following each of the last 7 weeks
including 4 times to win the NFC North.
Next let’s examine conference and divisional breakdowns to
see where the strengths and weaknesses are across the NFL landscape:
|
Rating
|
NFL
|
|
|
AW
|
48
|
1
|
|
NW
|
56
|
2
|
|
NN
|
61
|
3
|
|
NS
|
64
|
4
|
|
AN
|
70
|
5
|
|
AS
|
73
|
6
|
|
AE
|
77
|
7
|
|
NE
|
78
|
8
|
This analysis has not changed much during the entire season
as the AFC West remains the top division which should come as no surprise since
KC remains undefeated and Denver continues to lead the performance ratings. The NFC owns the next 3 spots in the
divisional rankings with the NFC East being the lone outlier – and they
continue to battle the AFC East for the worst division in football.
Next up, here are my projected standings after Wk10. As a reminder, this process involves playing
out the entire season based on my power ratings for each team. For more information on this topic and
process, and to see how accurate this exercise has been in the past, please read
this blog entry from July 31, 2012.
|
AFC East
|
Wins
|
Loss
|
NFC East
|
Wins
|
Loss
|
|
|
NE
|
10.39
|
5.61
|
PHI
|
8.05
|
7.95
|
|
|
NYJ
|
8.59
|
7.41
|
DAL
|
7.56
|
8.44
|
|
|
MIA
|
7.15
|
8.85
|
WAS
|
6.94
|
9.06
|
|
|
BUF
|
6.10
|
9.90
|
NYG
|
6.15
|
9.85
|
|
|
AFC North
|
NFC North
|
|||||
|
CIN
|
9.88
|
6.12
|
DET
|
10.44
|
5.56
|
|
|
CLE
|
7.33
|
8.67
|
CHI
|
8.76
|
7.24
|
|
|
BAL
|
7.11
|
8.89
|
GB
|
8.74
|
7.26
|
|
|
PIT
|
6.33
|
9.67
|
MIN
|
4.31
|
11.69
|
|
|
AFC South
|
NFC South
|
|||||
|
IND
|
9.81
|
6.19
|
NO
|
11.32
|
4.68
|
|
|
TEN
|
7.18
|
8.82
|
CAR
|
10.72
|
5.28
|
|
|
HOU
|
6.28
|
9.72
|
ATL
|
4.67
|
11.34
|
|
|
JAC
|
2.15
|
13.85
|
TB
|
3.57
|
12.43
|
|
|
AFC West
|
NFC West
|
|||||
|
DEN
|
13.32
|
2.68
|
SEA
|
13.14
|
2.87
|
|
|
KC
|
12.39
|
3.61
|
SF
|
10.00
|
6.00
|
|
|
SD
|
7.15
|
8.85
|
ARI
|
8.56
|
7.44
|
|
|
OAK
|
5.78
|
10.23
|
STL
|
6.14
|
9.86
|
|
|
Playoffs
|
Playoffs
|
|||||
|
#6 NYJ @ #3 CIN
|
#6 SF @ #3 DET
|
|||||
|
#5 KC @ #4 IND
|
#5 CAR @ #4 PHI
|
|||||
|
#1 DEN
|
#1 SEA
|
|||||
|
#2 NE
|
#2 NO
|
|||||
As far as playoff projections go things are starting to
really solidify themselves in many spots.
In the AFC we know the next three week’s will tell the story as to whom
will earn home field advantage, and the #2 seed as Denver plays KC, @NE,
@KC. We also know there will only be one
additional WC berth available (as the AFC West loser will earn the #5 seed) and
that battle will likely come down to the final two weeks between a number of
teams. The NFC may be even more
clear-cut especially following last week’s win by Carolina at SF. The pair of WC teams seem to be known with
the NFC South loser (between NO & CAR) and the NFC West loser (between SEA
& SF) earning those spots and likely travelling to the NFC East & North
division winners on Wild Card weekend.
Seattle appears to be a lock to win the NFC West, while the Saints are
also in good shape to win the NFC South – those two teams will likely wind up
with the bye weeks in the NFC. This
weekend’s NFC East matchup between Washington and Philadelphia is a big one as
I believe the Redskins are playing better than many believe, and need that win
badly; the NFC North could come down to how quickly Aaron Rodgers returns to
the Packers lineup.
Last analysis for this week (I will post each week just like
the standings above) is my power rankings.
My rankings are comprised of a pair of numbers: one measures team
performance in my performance ratings (discussed in the opener of this entry);
two measures team performance vs. the spread.
These two ratings are weighted and combined for my official power
rankings. For my blog I will only
provide the order of the teams, not the actual power ranking as that is for my
eyes only because it is used in my weekly handicapping process as potential
model plays:
|
1
|
DEN
|
|
2
|
SEA
|
|
3
|
NO
|
|
3
|
CAR
|
|
5
|
SF
|
|
6
|
KC
|
|
7
|
CIN
|
|
8
|
DET
|
|
9
|
NE
|
|
10
|
WAS
|
|
11
|
IND
|
|
11
|
HOU
|
|
13
|
GB
|
|
14
|
SD
|
|
15
|
CHI
|
|
16
|
ARI
|
|
17
|
NYJ
|
|
18
|
PHI
|
|
19
|
TEN
|
|
19
|
NYG
|
|
28
|
OAK
|
|
21
|
DAL
|
|
22
|
STL
|
|
22
|
MIA
|
|
24
|
BAL
|
|
25
|
PIT
|
|
25
|
CLE
|
|
27
|
BUF
|
|
29
|
TB
|
|
30
|
ATL
|
|
31
|
MIN
|
|
32
|
JAC
|
Thanks again for reading, please feel free to:
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