This is our first installment this year discussing my
performance ratings and additional metrics/statistics that help us form
opinions on each NFL team. Let’s jump
right into the #’s:
Performance Ratings (max grade is 160, 80 on offense and 80
on defense, calculated using 16 different stats with 5 points per stat being
the best score = 16x5 = 80).
|
OFFENSE
|
DEFENSE
|
TOTAL
TEAM
|
Blended
|
||||||||||
|
Wins
|
Rating
|
Rank
|
Rating
|
Rank
|
Rating
|
Rank
|
SOS
|
TOM
|
|||||
|
5
|
DEN
|
62.4
|
1
|
39.6
|
17
|
102.0
|
1
|
28
|
1
|
||||
|
4
|
IND
|
51.6
|
4
|
43.2
|
13
|
94.8
|
2
|
26
|
6
|
||||
|
5
|
KC
|
42.0
|
14
|
52.3
|
1
|
94.3
|
3
|
32
|
10
|
||||
|
2
|
HOU
|
42.4
|
13
|
49.9
|
3
|
92.3
|
4
|
8
|
(8)
|
||||
|
5
|
NO
|
48.5
|
5
|
43.5
|
12
|
92.0
|
5
|
30
|
6
|
||||
|
4
|
SEA
|
43.9
|
11
|
46.2
|
8
|
90.1
|
6
|
9
|
7
|
||||
|
1
|
CAR
|
43.9
|
12
|
45.1
|
11
|
89.0
|
7
|
14
|
0
|
||||
|
2
|
GB
|
52.6
|
3
|
35.1
|
22
|
87.8
|
8
|
5
|
(2)
|
||||
|
3
|
CIN
|
39.1
|
20
|
47.7
|
6
|
86.8
|
9
|
23
|
(2)
|
||||
|
3
|
NYJ
|
36.6
|
22
|
49.9
|
3
|
86.5
|
10
|
27
|
(9)
|
||||
|
3
|
SF
|
39.5
|
18
|
45.5
|
10
|
85.0
|
11
|
3
|
0
|
||||
|
3
|
DET
|
46.0
|
10
|
38.7
|
18
|
84.7
|
12
|
29
|
4
|
||||
|
2
|
PHI
|
53.6
|
2
|
29.4
|
29
|
83.0
|
13
|
19
|
2
|
||||
|
3
|
TEN
|
40.1
|
17
|
42.9
|
14
|
83.0
|
13
|
11
|
8
|
||||
|
4
|
NE
|
36.3
|
23
|
45.6
|
9
|
81.9
|
15
|
24
|
2
|
||||
|
2
|
DAL
|
46.9
|
6
|
34.8
|
23
|
81.7
|
16
|
22
|
3
|
||||
|
3
|
BAL
|
30.0
|
28
|
50.8
|
2
|
80.8
|
17
|
13
|
(4)
|
||||
|
2
|
BUF
|
37.1
|
21
|
42.6
|
15
|
79.7
|
18
|
12
|
3
|
||||
|
3
|
CHI
|
46.4
|
9
|
32.9
|
24
|
79.3
|
19
|
20
|
4
|
||||
|
3
|
CLE
|
29.3
|
29
|
49.6
|
5
|
78.9
|
20
|
25
|
1
|
||||
|
1
|
ATL
|
46.6
|
8
|
31.9
|
25
|
78.5
|
21
|
17
|
0
|
||||
|
2
|
SD
|
46.7
|
7
|
28.5
|
31
|
75.2
|
22
|
16
|
(8)
|
||||
|
2
|
OAK
|
39.3
|
19
|
35.2
|
21
|
74.5
|
23
|
21
|
3
|
||||
|
3
|
ARI
|
31.7
|
26
|
41.0
|
16
|
72.7
|
24
|
18
|
0
|
||||
|
1
|
WAS
|
41.5
|
16
|
30.5
|
27
|
72.0
|
25
|
6
|
(1)
|
||||
|
0
|
TB
|
23.6
|
31
|
46.8
|
7
|
70.4
|
26
|
1
|
0
|
||||
|
3
|
MIA
|
33.7
|
25
|
36.0
|
20
|
69.7
|
27
|
7
|
1
|
||||
|
1
|
MIN
|
41.6
|
15
|
27.1
|
32
|
68.8
|
28
|
15
|
2
|
||||
|
2
|
STL
|
35.6
|
24
|
31.8
|
26
|
67.4
|
29
|
31
|
2
|
||||
|
0
|
PIT
|
30.4
|
27
|
37.0
|
19
|
67.4
|
29
|
10
|
(11)
|
||||
|
0
|
NYG
|
25.7
|
30
|
29.3
|
30
|
55.0
|
31
|
2
|
(13)
|
||||
|
0
|
JAC
|
16.8
|
32
|
30.1
|
28
|
46.9
|
32
|
5
|
(7)
|
||||
Near the top we see some familiar teams from last season in
DEN, HOU & SEA, but also see some new teams busting into the best teams in
the NFL in IND, KC & NO. Let’s
discuss these six teams near the top of the performance ratings briefly this
week:
- DEN: playing at an extremely high level especially offensively as no team has averaged a grade of 60+ on either offense or defense over the course of an entire season. What is scary is they are only a +1 in TOM – their defense needs to force more turnovers, while their fumble recovery rate is 2nd worst in the NFL – two areas that may turn some in the Broncos favor especially when Von Miller and Champ Bailey return over the next two weeks.
- HOU: despite the doom and gloom in the media about the Texans I am not jumping ship just yet. Fact is the Texans have played an extremely tough schedule to date, and have posted a (8) TOM which is tied for 4th worst in the NFL. On the good side HOU’s performance is still rated #4 in the NFL supported by a defense that has been stellar at #3. Do not sleep on Houston, remember, when most are zigging you should be zagging to be successful in sports handicapping, especially football.
- SEA: the Seahawks check in at #6 but are not playing as well as last year according to my #’s. Now that has to be adjusted some for the fact they have faced the 9th toughest schedule to date, including facing their two toughest non-divisional road games (HOU, IND) already. The Seahawks remaining schedule I rate 31st according to their opponents performance rankings and 17th according to opponents wins – so they should start piling up even more wins. Currently Russell Wilson’s offense is ranked 11th including just 16th passing, while their vaunted defense ranks 8th including just 14th versus the pass – so we can see teams that can effectively pass the ball and defend the pass may have the best chance at defeated the Seahawks.
- IND: the Colts were perhaps my biggest bearish team heading into the season as they had a lot of indicators pointing towards a downward move in their record – so far that theory has been incorrect, but there is still a lot of games to be played. Their offense is ranked #4 in the NFL, defense #13 and they have enjoyed a +6 TOM – all solid figures. One big metric that could point towards a downward adjustment to their wins going forward is a schedule that is ranked 5th toughest measured by opponents performance rating, and 7th using opponents wins (compared to 27th & 17th respectively season to date). Rushing defense is one area that really stands out as a negative performance issue as they check in at #28 – something to keep an eye on especially with 2 of their next 3 opponents checking in with top 9 rushing offenses.
- KC: the Chiefs have certainly been the top surprise team this season as they rate #3 in my performance ratings and they are one of three undefeated teams remaining in the NFL. However, looking into their numbers directly may provide enough warning signs that a drop should be imminent: their blended SOS to date is #32 which is a combination of #31 using opponents performance ratings and #32 using opponents wins; lead the NFL in TOM at #10 and rates just #14 in total offense. Checking into their remaining SOS shows some warning signs in particular an overall remaining SOS of #7 using opponents performance ratings & #13 using opponents wins – a big step up compared to what they have faced to date: only one opponent (TEN) above .500 and the Titans lost their QB the week before their matchup. But get this – over their remaining 11 games of the season they only face one team that has a record worse than 2-3 (WAS – and we know the Skins should continue improving as the year goes on, and that game in in DC), and they have 4 games versus teams above .500 (although 3 of those 4 are at Arrowhead).
- NO: although the Saints weren’t a highly rated team in 2012 (dropped all the way to #26), they were almost always one of the better teams in the league since Brees and Payton hooked up. In the 3 years before 2012 the Saints ranked 2nd (2011), 7th (2010), and 4th (2009) in my performance ratings those seasons. The Saints currently check in at #5 in the NFL, a familiar neighborhood, supported by an offense that rates #5 and a defense checking in at #12. Their remaining opponents are average at best checking in at 12th toughest in performance ratings and 23rd in wins – that should favorably play into their chances at sealing home field advantage in the NFC playoffs. A few potential warning signs are a TOM that ranks 4th in the NFL, they are #1 in total plays and time of possession, 2nd in net plays, and top 14 in both offensive and defensive yards per point.
For this season I am adding a new analysis based on the
performance ratings which I will call red flag/green light. Here I will ONLY use my performance ratings and
give teams that could be undervalued (green light) by Vegas and are performing
better than many believe versus red flag teams that have an inflated record and
reputation in Vegas compared to their true on the field performance.
- Red Flag: STL, MIA, ARI, OAK, SD, CLE (without Hoyer)
- Green Light: DEN, HOU, CAR, GB
Next let’s examine conference and divisional breakdowns to
see where the strengths and weaknesses are across the NFL landscape. The top four teams in the ratings are from
the AFC (next four are from NFC) & six of the top ten are AFC squads. In addition six of the bottom nine teams are
from the NFC, so it would seem the AFC is superior to the NFC to date – and the
records of head to head matchups back that theory. Here are the figures – I simply take each
team’s performance rating ranking from first matrix, sum up each division’s
four teams and rank with the lowest rating being the toughest (because #1 is
the best / #32 the worst):
|
Rating
|
NFL
|
|
|
AW
|
49
|
1
|
|
AS
|
51
|
2
|
|
NS
|
59
|
3
|
|
NN
|
67
|
4
|
|
AE
|
70
|
6
|
|
NW
|
70
|
6
|
|
AN
|
75
|
7
|
|
NE
|
85
|
8
|
Next up, here are my projected standings after Wk5. As a reminder, this process involves playing
out the entire season based on my power ratings for each team. For more information on this topic and
process, and to see how accurate this exercise has been in the past, please read
this blog entry from July 31, 2012.
|
AFC East
|
Wins
|
Loss
|
NFC East
|
Wins
|
Loss
|
|
|
NE
|
9.82
|
6.19
|
DAL
|
7.80
|
8.20
|
|
|
NYJ
|
8.39
|
7.61
|
PHI
|
7.22
|
8.79
|
|
|
MIA
|
8.33
|
7.67
|
WAS
|
6.39
|
9.62
|
|
|
BUF
|
7.33
|
8.67
|
NYG
|
5.23
|
10.77
|
|
|
AFC North
|
NFC North
|
|||||
|
CIN
|
8.88
|
7.12
|
DET
|
9.32
|
6.68
|
|
|
CLE
|
8.18
|
7.82
|
GB
|
9.27
|
6.73
|
|
|
BAL
|
8.09
|
7.92
|
CHI
|
8.59
|
7.41
|
|
|
PIT
|
5.65
|
10.35
|
MIN
|
6.22
|
9.78
|
|
|
AFC South
|
NFC South
|
|||||
|
HOU
|
9.97
|
6.04
|
NO
|
11.17
|
4.83
|
|
|
IND
|
9.53
|
6.47
|
CAR
|
7.47
|
8.53
|
|
|
TEN
|
7.98
|
8.02
|
ATL
|
6.23
|
9.77
|
|
|
JAC
|
2.02
|
13.98
|
TB
|
4.57
|
11.43
|
|
|
AFC West
|
NFC West
|
|||||
|
DEN
|
13.44
|
2.56
|
SEA
|
11.63
|
4.37
|
|
|
KC
|
10.55
|
5.45
|
SF
|
9.70
|
6.30
|
|
|
SD
|
7.22
|
8.78
|
ARI
|
7.89
|
8.11
|
|
|
OAK
|
5.56
|
10.44
|
STL
|
6.39
|
9.61
|
|
|
Playoffs
|
Playoffs
|
|||||
|
#6 IND @ #3 NE
|
#6 GB @ #3 DET
|
|||||
|
#5 KC @ #4 CIN
|
#5 SF @ #4 DAL
|
|||||
|
#1 DEN
|
#1 SEA
|
|||||
|
#2 HOU
|
#2 NO
|
|||||
Here are the current playoff projections where I use my power
ratings to play out the entire season.
Each team’s power rating, which can change week to week based on my
performance ratings, provides a projected spread on each game (including a home
field advantage/road disadvantage variable) which then correlates to a % chance
at winning each game. I simply add up
the sums for each team, adjust for actual results once those games are played,
and it all comes to my projected standings listed above. One aspect of this analysis to note is the
teams will be slightly more “bunched” compared to what team’s actual records
will finish at – meaning, using this analysis to project order of finish, playoff
berths and seeds is very accurate, but using it to project actual wins and losses
will not be as accurate since teams on the outer edges of wins (very high or
very low) will typically win more/less than projected. Here is a matrix that shows what the playoffs
projection looked like after each week’s action:
|
NFC
|
AFC
|
|||||||||||
|
Wk1
|
Wk2
|
Wk3
|
Wk4
|
Wk5
|
Wk1
|
Wk2
|
Wk3
|
Wk4
|
Wk5
|
|||
|
ARI
|
|
|
|
|
|
BAL
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ATL
|
BUF
|
|||||||||||
|
CAR
|
|
|
|
|
|
CIN
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
|
|
CHI
|
6
|
6
|
3
|
3
|
CLE
|
|||||||
|
DAL
|
|
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
DEN
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
|
|
DET
|
6
|
3
|
HOU
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
||||
|
GB
|
2
|
2
|
5
|
|
6
|
IND
|
6
|
|
|
|
6
|
|
|
MIN
|
JAC
|
|||||||||||
|
NO
|
3
|
3
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
KC
|
|
|
6
|
5
|
5
|
|
|
NYG
|
MIA
|
5
|
5
|
5
|
6
|
|||||||
|
PHI
|
4
|
4
|
|
|
|
NE
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
3
|
|
|
SEA
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
NYJ
|
||||||
|
SF
|
5
|
5
|
6
|
5
|
5
|
OAK
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
STL
|
PIT
|
|||||||||||
|
TB
|
|
|
|
|
|
SD
|
|
6
|
|
|
|
|
|
WAS
|
TEN
|
|||||||||||
Last analysis for this week (I will post each week just like
the standings above) is my power rankings.
My rankings are comprised of a pair of numbers: one measures team
performance in my performance ratings (discussed in the opener of this entry);
two measures team performance vs. the spread.
These two ratings are weighted and combined for my official power rankings. For my blog I will only provide the order of
the teams, not the actual power ranking as that is for my eyes only because it
is used in my weekly handicapping process as potential model plays:
|
1
|
DEN
|
|
2
|
SEA
|
|
3
|
HOU
|
|
4
|
NO
|
|
5
|
SF
|
|
5
|
GB
|
|
7
|
NE
|
|
8
|
IND
|
|
9
|
DET
|
|
9
|
CAR
|
|
11
|
KC
|
|
12
|
CIN
|
|
13
|
DAL
|
|
14
|
CHI
|
|
15
|
ATL
|
|
16
|
MIA
|
|
17
|
WAS
|
|
18
|
CLE
|
|
18
|
ARI
|
|
20
|
TEN
|
|
20
|
BAL
|
|
20
|
NYJ
|
|
23
|
MIN
|
|
23
|
BUF
|
|
25
|
PIT
|
|
26
|
STL
|
|
26
|
PHI
|
|
28
|
SD
|
|
29
|
OAK
|
|
30
|
TB
|
|
30
|
NYG
|
|
32
|
JAC
|
Thanks again for reading, please feel free to:
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