There has not been a blog posting here since December 11 due to multiple reasons. One, it was the holiday season and like many of you I was busy with family activities, travelling, and also handicapping games which is most important because after all, that is what my clients pay for. This blog is here to share my thoughts, and hopefully educate everyone some in the art/science of handicapping - but it is only posted to when I have time allowing me to do so. Two, I was ill in early January, literally out of commission for close to 10 days. I am nearly back to 100% now, and with football season winding down, I will be posting more and more to my blog.
In the coming weeks and months I will be posting numerous NFL related articles - that is where most of my readers interest lies. I will be looking BACK at my articles from last Spring & Summer where I did many projections using various statistical angles; I will also look FORWARD with at least the same articles as last year - updated for the new numbers provided by the 2012 regular season. In addition to all my NFL work the following will also be posted:
Weekly NCAA Basketball Power Poll Top 15 (posted on Fridays)
NHL Season Preview (during the last week of January)
NBA New Power Rating System (multiple entries in the coming weeks)
NBA Days Rest Analysis (multiple entries probably commencing around the ASB)
MLB Season Preview (March)
NCAA Football 2013 Team by Team previews (starting in early Spring like last year)
PGA Tour Season Preview (mid February)
Please continue stopping by - there will be at least weekly entries moving forward. I also welcome any and all comments, criticism or praise - please email or leave comments here. Do not be concerned about emailing me - I NEVER use email addresses for marketing purposes unless I am specifically asked to do so. I also NEVER sell or trade email addresses to other services. Keep in mind, I have been known to give out free selections or even free packages in all sports based on comments I receive about my articles - if you spend the time to formulate a response to me and its valid and a good discussion point you may wind up earning yourself a free night, few days, or even a free week of selections!
With all that behind us, let's jump into the first article of 2013!
Last offseason in early summer I posted an article here on my blog entitled “NFL 2012 Leading Indicators” which examined three stats I felt were strong predictors of the success or failure of team’s in the upcoming season. Now that we have the 2012 regular season in the books we can go back, examine my projections, and see how each played out.
- Points Differential: simple calculation by taking the average points scored per game minus the average points allowed per game which yields a points differential per game. There is a pretty standard matrix across the industry that has been put together studying just this figure over the last 30 or so years, which allows you to slot teams into a specific projected record based on this number. Once you do that the value to this analysis is added by comparing the actual record of a team vs. the record their points differential suggests it should have led to – and based on that you can green light or red flag specific teams for the upcoming season.
· Below are the teams I projected to move up or down as far as record went in 2012.
o MIA & PHI were the two teams this metric projected would increase their wins in 2012 when comparing to 2011. MIA did indeed improve year over year (YOY) going from 6 to 7 wins. Unfortunately PHI did not move the way this metric projected, falling from 8 to 4 wins. One potential driver of this drop was the QB position, namely, the injury to Michael Vick. The embattled Vick only started and finished 9 games during the 2012 season, with the remaining 7 games started by rookie QB Nick Foles. The Eagles were just 3-6 in Vick’s games so in order to at least reach last season’s 8 wins they would have needed to go 5-2 in the other 7 games – unlikely it seems. PHI is the only team over the last 3 seasons (at least, that is how far I have gone back using this specific stat) that moved the opposite way the stat projected. There is a lot more Eagles analysis to come as they were the lone outlier on quite a few statistical projections this season, the biggest of which was turnovers & turnover margin.
o DEN, KC, OAK, PIT, TB were the teams this metric projected to decrease in 2012. Although the points differential did suggest a drop from 8 wins for DEN I did mention how I would eliminate them from this analysis because of the addition of QB Peyton Manning. KC was one of my most likely teams to fall from their 7 wins in 2011, and they wound up backing me up after finishing at 2-14, the worst record in the NFL. OAK was right behind KC in my most likely to falter teams and they did not disappoint as the Raiders only won 4 games this past season, which was 4 less than 2011. PIT was next up on the list and due to this metric, along with an improving AFC North I felt their win total would drop in 2012 – and it did, falling from 12 to 8 wins. Last up is TB, and in my initial article I mentioned how it would be tough for them to drop from their 4 wins in 2011 – and it turned out they indeed did not drop, instead improving to 7 wins. To summarize these five teams, I removed DEN from the analysis initially which left four; I also mentioned TB would be hard pressed to drop from their 4 wins in 2011 which left three; KC, OAK & PIT all saw their win total drop YOY.
- Yards per Play: the calculation is straight forward, and the idea here is to take this number for each team, sort from best to worst, and identify outliers – where teams that are near the top of this metric had a poor record, or vice versa.
· When projecting the 2012 season this summer, here were some of the outliers I isolated as teams that had either a green light or red flag heading into the season:
o SF & BAL were projected by this metric to have a worse record YOY. SF fell from 13 to 11 wins, a check mark for this metric. Likewise BAL went from 12 to 10 wins, another correct projection. Ironically these are the two teams that will be playing in the Super Bowl next week!
o CAR will have a better record, while BUF is on the fringe. CAR did improve from 6 to 7 wins, while I called BUF to be on the fringe – and there is no better way to define fringe in this spot than a team that won 6 games in both 2011 & 2012 for net no change.
- First Downs per Game: another straight forward calculation or stat you can pull from just about any website, this is a strong indicator of the consistency and success teams have offensively, and hence scoring points. While the big play isn’t captured in this metric in its totality, a solid way to measure success of an offense is by their first down frequency.
· When projecting the 2012 season this past summer here were some of the outliers that could be isolated as teams that had either a green light or red flag heading into the season:
o SF to have a worse record. Similar to the Yards per Play metric above SF did in fact move the way this metric projected, dropping 2 wins YOY.
o CAR to have a better record, while BUF again is on the fringe. These are the same two teams mentioned in point #2, and both teams moved the way this metric projected.
Looking at the Leading Indicators projections as a whole, I projected a dozen teams to either improve or worsen in record based solely on the three stats mentioned above: Points Differential, Yards per Play & First Downs per Game. Of those 12 teams only the Philadelphia Eagles, one of the two teams projected to improve based on Points Differential (point #1) moved the opposite way as projected. The remaining 11 teams in this analysis moved just as my indicators projected!
Analysis like this can be used in the offseason, and applied once the season commences. The key to being a solid NFL handicapper is completing all your legwork & backward looking analyses by the early summer, and then following that up by working on specific angles and areas for the upcoming season such as schedule situations, coaching trees, etc. Setting your foundation by examining in great detail the happenings of the prior season can really assist you once the new season gets underway!
Check back in the coming months as I will post the 2013 Leading Indicators article as I once again isolate teams that will either improve or falter as the new season begins! Enjoy the offseason everyone – but remember, if you want to be a successful NFL handicapper there truly is no offseason!
Thanks again for reading, please feel free to:
Follow me on Twitter: @SportsBoss
Follow me on Facebook: The SportsBoss
Leave comments here on the blog
COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2013
No comments:
Post a Comment