Well Hurricane Sandy messed up a lot of things here in the Northeast, more important things than my blog but I missed updating it last week because of that storm. We are back this week, and a lot has happened over the last two weeks impacting polls, conference championship races, and BCS bowl games. Let’s jump right into the current rankings:
Week Ten Power Poll (ranking, team, record, 2 wk’s ago PP ranking, next game vs. Power Poll team)
#1 Alabama Crimson Tide (9-0, #1): 11/10 VS #13 TEXAS A&M
#2 Oregon Ducks (9-0, #3): 11/17 VS #19 STANFORD
#3 Kansas State Wildcats (9-0, #2): 12/1 VS #16 TEXAS
#4 Georgia Bulldogs (8-1, #9): no regular season games remaining vs. current Power Poll teams
#5 LSU Tigers (7-2, #6): no regular season games remaining vs. current Power Poll teams
#6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-0, #8): 11/24 @ #25 USC
#7 Ohio State Buckeyes (10-0, #12): 11/24 VS #23 MICHIGAN
#8 Florida Gators (8-1, #4): 11/24 @ #11 FLORIDA STATE
#9 Oklahoma Sooners (6-2, #5): no regular season games remaining vs. current Power Poll teams
#10 South Carolina Gamecocks (7-2, #7): 11/24 @ #12 CLEMSON
#11 Florida State Seminoles (8-1, #11): 11/24 VS #8 FLORIDA
#12 Clemson Tigers (8-1, #13): 11/24 VS #10 SOUTH CAROLINA
#13 Texas A&M Aggies (7-2, NR): 11/10 @ #1 ALABAMA
#14 UCLA Bruins (7-2, N5): 11/17 VS #25 USC
#15 Oregon State Beavers (7-1, #10): 11/10 @ #19 STANFORD
#16 Texas Longhorns (7-2, #23): 12/1 @ #3 KANSAS STATE
#17 Louisville Cardinals (9-0, #15): 11/29 @ #20 RUTGERS
#18 Nebraska Cornhuskers (7-2, NR): no regular season games remaining vs. current Power Poll teams
#19 Stanford Cardinal (7-2, #20): 11/10 VS #15 OREGON STATE
#20 Rutgers Scarlet Knights (7-1, #18): 11/29 VS #17 LOUISVILLE
#21 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (8-1, N5): no regular season games remaining vs. current Power Poll teams
#22 Kent St. Golden Flashes (8-1, NR): no regular season games remaining vs. current Power Poll teams
#23 Michigan Wolverines (6-3, #19): 11/10 VS #24 NORTHWESTERN
#24 Northwestern Wildcats (7-2, NR): 11/10 @ #23 MICHIGAN
#25 USC Trojans (6-3, #14): 11/17 @ #14 UCLA
Dropped out of Power Poll:
#16 Texas Tech
#17 Mississippi State
#21 Cincinnati
#22 West Virginia
#24 Ohio
#25 Toledo
New addition to Power Poll:
#13 Texas A&M: NR
#14 UCLA: N5
#18 Nebraska: NR
#21 Louisiana Tech: N5
#22 Kent State: NR
#24 Northwestern: NR
Next Five to keep eye on, in alphabetical order only
A) Mississippi State (7-2): #17
B) Northern Illinois (9-1): NR
C) Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-3): #16
D) Tulsa Golden Hurricane (7-2): N5
E) Wisconsin Badgers (6-3): N5
By conference:
ACC: 2
Big 12: 3
Big 10: 4
Big East: 2
Independent: 1
MAC: 1
Pac 12: 5
SEC: 6
WAC: 1
CUSA & MWC & Sun Belt: 0
This week we have three ranked vs. ranked matchups:
#13 Texas A&M @ #1 Alabama
#15 Oregon State @ #19 Stanford
#24 Northwestern @ #23 Michigan
BCS Division & Conference Projections
ACC – no changes to projections from last version two weeks ago
Atlantic: like my last update the Seminoles are on their way to an Atlantic Division title, their second in the last three years, and third overall since this game was instituted in 2005. In order to secure their berth all they need is a win @ Maryland to close their season – and the Terps are down to their 4th string QB – so it doesn’t appear there will be any issues there.
Coastal: this side of the conference remains wide open with Miami, FL & North Carolina (the Tar Heels are ineligible for the ACC Championship Game this season due to NCAA sanctions) leading right now with 2 losses, while Duke & Georgia Tech trail closely behind with 3 losses. Last time around I projected Miami, FL to secure this berth, and nothing that has occurred over the last two weeks has me thinking about changing my mind. Miami, FL is essentially up 1.5 games on GT because they already won the head to head meeting, but they do finish the season @ Duke on November 24. If Duke picks up a win @ Georgia Tech next Saturday the game between them and Miami, FL will be for all the Coastal division marbles and a shot at revenge on the Noles for both schools.
Championship Game: Florida State vs. Miami, FL (FSU won 1st meeting this year 33-20)
Champion: Florida State
BIG 12 – no change to projection from last version two weeks ago
With no championship game to speak of this year due to team defections the regular season will determine this year’s Big 12 BCS entrant. Currently, Kansas State sits atop the conference at 6-0, Oklahoma is 1 game back (really they are 1.5 games back due to K-State’s head to head win over the Sooners earlier this season), while Texas & Oklahoma State have just 2 losses. It seems highly unlikely K-State is caught by any team behind them as they would have to lose two of their final three games for anyone else to have a shot – and if that somehow did happen that also includes the fact Oklahoma, Texas and/or Oklahoma State would have to run the table to be alive. Kansas State has more in mind than simply winning the Big 12 – they are currently ranked #2 in the BCS Standings, and have high hopes of playing for a national title come January. Two of their remaining three games are on the road, but neither is against a ranked team, or a team above .500 in Big 12 play. Their finale against Texas in Manhattan could be huge for many reasons.
Champion: Kansas State
BIG EAST – no change to projection from last version two weeks ago
Conference play is finally in full swing, and two undefeated teams remain in Louisville & Rutgers, both sitting at 4-0. Cincinnati appears to be the only other school with any sort of chance of a Big East crown – they are 2-1, still have four conference games to play, but they have already lost at Louisville by just 3pts in OT. It seems clear that ‘Ville and RU are the class of the Big East, and just like my projection last time here, Thursday November 29th, 730pm, Louisville at Rutgers will likely decide this conference’s BCS berth.
Champion: Louisville
BIG TEN – change to one division winner and Big Ten champion
Legends: with back to back big wins over Michigan and Michigan State the Cornhuskers are now in the driver’s seat to take home the Legends division crown and play in the Big Ten title game. Their two closest pursuers are Michigan with one loss and Northwestern with two losses – those two clash this weekend in Ann Arbor in essentially an elimination game with the loser not having a shot at the division title. If Michigan was to win they would remain tied with NU with one loss, but one half game behind due to the head to head loss – which means UM has to outplay NU in the W/L column by one game to close. Michigan still has their finale @ Ohio State – and if that was a loss, even if the Wolverines took care of business in their other two games, they would have to hope NU goes 1-2 to close on a schedule of home games vs. PSU & MIN, and finale on road at Iowa. I previously had Michigan winning this division, but now believe Nebraska will get it done.
Leaders: this division is much more cut and dry – with Ohio State and Penn State both ineligible (and currently atop the standings) it will come down to 3-2 Wisconsin and 2-3 Indiana. Yeah, Indiana has a realistic shot at winning this division. The two teams meet this Saturday in Bloomington, and if IU found a way to pull off the victory they would have a one half game lead on the Badgers with 2 games remaining for both: Wisky has OSU at home & @ PSU to close, while Indy has @ PSU & @ PUR. Advantage there would be Indiana, whom could pull off a stunning division crown. But, I am going to stick with Wisconsin, even though I believe tomorrow’s game will be closer than the experts think and wouldn’t be shocked if the Hoosiers pulled it off.
Championship Game: Nebraska vs. Wisconsin (NU won first meeting 30-27 in Lincoln)
Champion: Nebraska
PAC 12 – change to one division winner
North: technically this remains a three school race although Oregon looks head and shoulders better than everyone else in the division, and possibly even the country. But, it does remain a relatively wide open race in the sense the three top teams are all within one game and all have yet to play each other to this point. Once the round robin is played out I would be very surprised if it’s anyone other than Oregon at the top – though the closing Civil War vs. rival Oregon State should be a very entertaining game.
South: with the Trojans completely falling apart, dropping from the #1 ranking in the country to a team that has 3 conference losses, this race is without question wide open – just like last season. UCLA is currently in the driver’s seat with only 2 losses, but USC and Arizona State are right behind them with just 3. I personally believe UCLA is the best team, with USC second – and those two meet in the Rose Bowl next weekend in what could be the Pac 12 South championship game. However, the Bruins still have to play a road game at Washington State, and host Stanford to close their year; USC will face Arizona State at home this weekend in an elimination game, and only has the aforementioned UCLA game remaining in Pac 12 play. USC controls its own destiny – win both and they will take the Pac 12 South and get a rematch with the Ducks. I do not see it happening, and I am switching my projection to UCLA.
Championship Game: Oregon vs. UCLA (rematch of LY’s inaugural Pac 12 Championship, teams do not play during regular season this year)
Champion: Oregon
SEC – no changes to projections from last version two weeks ago
East: all season I have been high on Georgia, and it looks like I will nail them winning the SEC East and playing in the SEC Championship Game. With a win this weekend at Auburn they seal the division crown; a loss would give it to Florida. Auburn has not played a good game all season, so there is no reason to believe tomorrow will be that day.
West: with Alabama’s win at LSU last weekend they have essentially sealed up the West division championship once again. Since the preseason I have had a Georgia vs. Alabama SEC Championship game, and it looks like that is what we will get come early December.
Championship Game: Georgia vs. Alabama
Champion: Georgia
BCS Bowl Projections (new teams put in bold)
BCS National Championship Game: Georgia vs. Kansas State
Rose Bowl: Nebraska vs. Oregon
Sugar Bowl: Alabama (at-large) vs. Notre Dame
Fiesta Bowl: UCLA (at-large) vs. Oklahoma (at-large)
Orange Bowl: Florida State vs. Louisville
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