Interesting, another week of action, and my preface to last week’s column still remains accurate: After four weeks of action only three teams remain unbeaten – HOU, ATL & ARI; while a pair are winless – NO & CLE. Yes, in Wk4, the unbeaten squads won again, two in dramatic fashion, while the winless squads both lost again – and both of those were one score games as well. What is new, and a positive, is the officials signed an agreement to get back on the field, which took place this past weekend – that is surely a ton of good news. Let’s jump right into the numbers…..
Performance Ratings (max grade is 160, 80 on offense and 80 on defense, calculated using 16 different stats with 5 points per stat being the best score = 16x5 = 80).
OFFENSE
|
DEFENSE
|
TOTAL TEAM
|
Blended
| ||||||||
Wins
|
Rating
|
Rank
|
Rating
|
Rank
|
Rating
|
Rank
|
SOS
| ||||
4
|
HOU
|
52.4
|
4
|
50.1
|
2
|
102.5
|
1
|
21
| |||
3
|
SF
|
47.9
|
7
|
49.0
|
5
|
96.9
|
2
|
17
| |||
3
|
PHI
|
45.0
|
12
|
51.0
|
1
|
96.0
|
3
|
23
| |||
2
|
DEN
|
50.5
|
5
|
45.1
|
8
|
95.6
|
4
|
9
| |||
2
|
NE
|
57.5
|
1
|
37.6
|
17
|
95.1
|
5
|
24
| |||
1
|
MIA
|
39.6
|
20
|
50.0
|
3
|
89.6
|
6
|
25
| |||
3
|
BAL
|
49.8
|
6
|
39.6
|
13
|
89.4
|
7
|
11
| |||
4
|
ATL
|
52.9
|
3
|
34.1
|
22
|
87.0
|
8
|
15
| |||
3
|
CHI
|
37.5
|
22
|
49.5
|
4
|
87.0
|
8
|
26
| |||
2
|
GB
|
42.4
|
16
|
44.4
|
9
|
86.8
|
10
|
10
| |||
3
|
MIN
|
42.3
|
17
|
43.6
|
11
|
85.9
|
11
|
27
| |||
2
|
WAS
|
55.3
|
2
|
29.6
|
27
|
84.9
|
12
|
32
| |||
3
|
SD
|
42.8
|
15
|
41.6
|
12
|
84.4
|
13
|
31
| |||
2
|
SEA
|
35.9
|
24
|
48.5
|
6
|
84.4
|
13
|
19
| |||
1
|
PIT
|
46.3
|
9
|
36.3
|
20
|
82.7
|
15
|
12
| |||
2
|
NYG
|
45.8
|
10
|
36.6
|
19
|
82.4
|
16
|
22
| |||
1
|
KC
|
44.9
|
13
|
37.4
|
18
|
82.3
|
17
|
20
| |||
2
|
DAL
|
37.8
|
21
|
44.1
|
10
|
81.9
|
18
|
14
| |||
1
|
DET
|
41.4
|
18
|
39.1
|
14
|
80.5
|
19
|
13
| |||
3
|
CIN
|
45.6
|
11
|
33.5
|
23
|
79.1
|
20
|
28
| |||
2
|
BUF
|
47.0
|
8
|
30.8
|
26
|
77.8
|
21
|
30
| |||
4
|
ARI
|
30.4
|
30
|
45.9
|
7
|
76.3
|
22
|
4
| |||
2
|
STL
|
34.1
|
26
|
38.0
|
16
|
72.1
|
23
|
8
| |||
1
|
CAR
|
43.9
|
14
|
27.9
|
29
|
71.8
|
24
|
29
| |||
1
|
IND
|
37.5
|
22
|
33.3
|
24
|
70.8
|
25
|
2
| |||
1
|
TB
|
31.6
|
28
|
39.0
|
15
|
70.6
|
26
|
19
| |||
1
|
JAC
|
34.4
|
25
|
29.3
|
28
|
63.6
|
27
|
7
| |||
0
|
CLE
|
27.3
|
32
|
35.4
|
21
|
62.6
|
28
|
4
| |||
2
|
NYJ
|
29.8
|
31
|
32.3
|
25
|
62.0
|
29
|
7
| |||
0
|
NO
|
40.3
|
19
|
21.5
|
31
|
61.8
|
30
|
16
| |||
1
|
TEN
|
34.1
|
26
|
21.1
|
32
|
55.3
|
31
|
1
| |||
1
|
OAK
|
31.4
|
29
|
23.0
|
30
|
54.4
|
32
|
5
| |||
As promised last week we are now showing our “blended SOS” rating for each team, which is a weighted average of opponent’s performance ratings and opponent’s record. Using that piece of information along with where team’s actually stack up in the ratings can assist in determining true performance – if we look at DEN, they check in #4 in the performance ratings this week, only trailing NE by 0.4 rating points per game; if we then adjust for SOS, where DEN is #9 while NE is #23, thru the first four weeks of the season DEN has actually performed better than NE has. I continue to work on a formula where that information can be used to show an SOS adjusted performance rating.
Biggest movers from last week (+/- 4 or more spots):
- Risers: DEN +15 (#19 to #4), WAS +8 (#20 to #12), SF/CHI/GB/CIN +4
- Decliners: BUF -13 (#8 to #21), NYG -11 (#5 to #16), DAL -8 (#10 to #18), ATL/TB/NYJ -4
DEN played the best game of the season thus far, posting a 137 score in their 37-6 rout of rival OAK. The Broncos are definitely a team to keep an eye on because as mentioned last week, their two losses came to a pair of the undefeated squads, and they have now outplayed 3 of 4 opponents including Wk2’s loss to ATL. HOU remained at the top of the ratings, the only team to average triple digits per game on the season. With the SOS remaining for the Texans (#21 opponents record, #24 opponents performance ratings) they certainly appear to be a very likely candidate to finish at the top of the ratings come the end of the season. At #2 is SF, giving us a 1-2 punch of HOU-SF, which makes sense as most people believe those two are the cream of the NFL crop at this point. PHI remains in the Top 3 buoyed by a strong defense that is rated #1 in the NFL. A pair of surprise teams at #11/#12 in MIN/WAS continue playing well – but keep an eye on their SOS as it currently sits among the easiest of the teams rated around and above them, and both teams are well within the top ten of remaining SOS in both opponents record and opponents performance ratings – we could see a correction coming very soon. ARI, easily the lowest rated of the trio of undefeated teams, actually slipped a spot to #22 after being badly outplayed vs. MIA on Sunday to the tune of 96-65; it led to their first ATS loss of the season, even with the line dropping some 2.5-3 points during the week – more could be right around the corner, especially considering their remaining SOS is rated #2 based on opponents record, and #6 based on opponents performance ratings. CAR slid up from #27 to #24 after a gut wrenching loss to ATL on Sunday, but a closer look at their performance ratings tells a story of concern – their season to date SOS of #29 is easily the most favorable schedule of the bottom 11 teams in the ratings. Coming into the season I talked about being bullish on the Panthers this season, believing their offense would remain among the best in the league, and their defense would improve because of less injuries – their defense has not performed well at all, rating #29 in the league so far, including #31 vs. the rush. Lastly, we have a new team bringing up the rear, OAK. As mentioned above they were hammered in Denver Sunday, leaving them alone at the bottom with an average performance rating of just 54.4/gm. Things are not going well in OAK, which has really been the story for the better part of the last decade.
As far as conference and divisional breakdowns, while last week the NFC had 4 of the top 6 spots, now the AFC holds down 5 of the top 7, following the drop backs of ATL and NYG. On the flip side 6 of the bottom 8 teams are also from the AFC – which means there are some very good teams, but also some very bad ones in the AFC – and we can see that as the playoff picture continues to shape up (discussed below). The NFC East has the highest rated worst team with DAL checking in at #18, while the NFC North is just behind with DET at #19.
Next up, here are my projected standings after Wk4. As a reminder, this process involves playing out the entire season based on my power ratings for each team. For more information on this topic and process, and to see how accurate this exercise has been in the past, please read this blog entry from July 31.
AFC East
|
Wins
|
Loss
|
NFC East
|
Wins
|
Loss
| |
NE
|
9.11
|
6.89
|
PHI
|
10.05
|
5.96
| |
NYJ
|
7.95
|
8.05
|
DAL
|
8.24
|
7.76
| |
BUF
|
7.45
|
8.55
|
NYG
|
8.13
|
7.87
| |
MIA
|
7.35
|
8.65
|
WAS
|
7.26
|
8.74
| |
AFC North
|
NFC North
| |||||
BAL
|
9.81
|
6.19
|
GB
|
9.18
|
6.82
| |
CIN
|
8.62
|
7.38
|
CHI
|
8.91
|
7.09
| |
PIT
|
8.49
|
7.52
|
MIN
|
8.46
|
7.55
| |
CLE
|
4.16
|
11.84
|
DET
|
7.11
|
8.89
| |
AFC South
|
NFC South
| |||||
HOU
|
13.06
|
2.94
|
ATL
|
11.28
|
4.72
| |
IND
|
6.45
|
9.56
|
CAR
|
7.08
|
8.92
| |
JAC
|
5.28
|
10.72
|
TB
|
5.81
|
10.19
| |
TEN
|
5.22
|
10.78
|
NO
|
5.23
|
10.77
| |
AFC West
|
NFC West
| |||||
SD
|
9.81
|
6.19
|
SF
|
11.16
|
4.85
| |
DEN
|
9.40
|
6.60
|
ARI
|
9.50
|
6.50
| |
KC
|
6.23
|
9.77
|
SEA
|
8.41
|
7.59
| |
OAK
|
5.25
|
10.75
|
STL
|
6.57
|
9.43
| |
Playoffs
|
Playoffs
| |||||
#6 CIN @ #3 SD
|
#6 CHI @ #3 PHI
| |||||
#5 DEN @ #4 NE
|
#5 ARI @ #4 GB
| |||||
#1 HOU
|
#1 ATL
| |||||
#2 BAL
|
#2 SF
| |||||
Following Wk4 games I have adjusted the power ratings for 6 teams, 3 up and 3 down as I always keep the proper balance within my ratings. After updating for last week’s action, and the power rating changes just mentioned, there are just two teams that moved up or down 1 projected win:
- DOWN: NYJ (1.2), OAK (1.2)
As far as changes to my playoff projections, the AFC has one new playoff team, CIN, whom replaced the NYJ, whom just got in last week. Most of the seeds also stayed static – the only differences were related to the change of teams in prior point. As we can see however, the AFC playoff picture appears to be taking shape, even this early in the season. It looks like there are 7 teams that will be in the mix for 6 spots – remember how accurate this exercise has been over the years, very few times are there big time surprises, especially once we get about half way into the season. In the NFC we also only saw one team change, and it was directly driven by the result of MNF with CHI dispatching DAL and sliding up into the #6 and final spot. The NFC certainly has a little more flexibility, and teams that will battle it out for a playoff spot as the season continues – but one thing is for sure, the NFC South, a division many looked at as the best in football heading into the season, really has its work cut out for it outside ATL if they want to make a run to the playoffs.
In the race for the 1st pick in the 2013 NFL draft the Browns remained ahead of the Titans & Jaguars – as it currently stands, CLE has about a 1.5-1.75 calibrated games edge on their closest chasers.
Last analysis for this week (I will post each week just like the standings above) is my power rankings. My rankings are comprised of a pair of numbers: one measures team performance in my performance ratings (discussed in the opener of this entry); two measures team performance vs. the spread. These two ratings are weighted and combined for my official power rankings. For my blog I will only provide the order of the teams, not the actual power ranking as that is for my eyes only because it is used in my weekly handicapping process as potential model plays, which are currently 2-0 on season in games I released, and 7-0 overall including games I left off early in season although they fit the criteria (there has not been a model play in either Wk3 or Wk4):
1
|
HOU
|
2
|
SF
|
3
|
NE
|
4
|
ATL
|
5
|
DEN
|
6
|
BAL
|
7
|
GB
|
8
|
PHI
|
9
|
SD
|
10
|
PIT
|
11
|
SEA
|
12
|
NYG
|
13
|
DAL
|
14
|
CHI
|
15
|
ARI
|
16
|
CAR
|
17
|
NYJ
|
18
|
DET
|
18
|
MIA
|
20
|
NO
|
21
|
MIN
|
22
|
WAS
|
23
|
CIN
|
24
|
BUF
|
25
|
STL
|
26
|
IND
|
27
|
TB
|
27
|
KC
|
29
|
OAK
|
30
|
TEN
|
30
|
JAC
|
32
|
CLE
|
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