Thursday, August 30, 2012

2012 Final Preseason College Football Power Poll & Other Predictions

Here it is, hot off the presses – or my desk since I am not a big media outlet.  This poll is meant to be what it’s entitled, a “Power Poll”, which means it is how I view the teams as far as how good and talented they are – it is not a poll in the sense I am ranking teams how I feel they will finish at the end of the season.  I have included my ranking, the preseason AP ranking, my pre-preseason ranking from a few weeks ago, and lastly each team’s projected record.  I will no doubt update this entry after each and every week of action, so check back to see where your team stacks up, and please comment here or hit me up via email or Twitter (@sportsboss).
#1 Florida State Seminoles: #7/#1, 11-1
#2 Georgia Bulldogs: #6/#2, 10-2
#3 USC Trojans: #1/#3, 10-2
#4 Alabama Crimson Tide: #2/#5, 10-2
#5 Oklahoma Sooners: #4/#8, 10-2
#6 Oregon Ducks: #5/#6, 11-1
#7 LSU Tigers: #3/#4, 9-3
#8 Clemson Tigers: #14/#7, 9-3
#9 South Carolina Gamecocks: #9/#12, 9-3
#10 * Ohio State Buckeyes: #18/NR, 10-2    
#11 West Virginia Mountaineers: #11/#11, 9-3
#12 Michigan Wolverines: #8/#10, 9-3
#13 Virginia Tech Hokies: #16/#15, 9-3
#14 Texas Longhorns: #15/#9, 8-4
#15 Michigan State Spartans: #13/#17, 9-3
#16 Kansas State Wildcats: #22/#13, 8-4
#17 Florida Gators: #23/#19, 7-5
#18 South Florida Bulls: #34/#21, 8-4
#19 Arkansas Razorbacks: #10/#14, 7-5
#20 Wisconsin Badgers: #12/#22, 7-5
#21 Notre Dame Fighting Irish: #26/#16, 8-4
#22 Auburn Tigers: #28/NR, 7-5
#23 Utah Utes: #30/NR, 9-3
#24 Tennessee Volunteers: #33/#23, 7-5
#25 North Carolina Tar Heels: #29/NR, 8-4
*I left OSU off initial rankings list because I wasn’t sure if AP would rank them this season.  It turns out they will be included, so I will also include them moving forward despite the fact they cannot play for a Big Ten title, or in a bowl game.
Next Five to keep eye on, in alphabetical order only
A)     Louisville Cardinals: #25/#20
B)      Missouri Tigers: #38/NR
C)      Nebraska Cornhuskers: #17/NR
D)     Texas A&M Aggies: #36/NR
E)      Washington Huskies: #27/#24

Teams the AP has ranked that did not make my Top 25 Power Poll:
  • Nebraska #17
  • Oklahoma State #19
  • TCU #20
  • Stanford #21
  • Boise State #24
  • Louisville #25

Teams the AP does not have ranked that are in my Top 25 Power Poll:
  • South Florida #18
  • Notre Dame #21
  • Auburn #22
  • Utah #23
  • Tennessee #24
  • North Carolina #25

Top 5 biggest variances between my Top 25 Power Poll and AP:
  • Ohio State: #10 vs. #18 = +8 spots
  • South Florida: #18 vs. #34 = +16 spots
  • Arkansas: #19 vs. #10 = (10) spots
  • Utah: #23 vs. #30 = (7) spots
  • Tennessee: #24 vs. #33 = (9) spots

Projected Conference & Division Winners (team’s in parenthesis would be winner but are ineligible):
SEC: Alabama                                    East: Georgia                     West: Alabama
Big Ten: Michigan                            Legends: Michigan          Leaders: Purdue (OSU)
Big 12: Oklahoma
Pac 12: USC                                          North: Oregon                  South: USC
ACC: FSU                                             Atlantic: FSU                      Coastal: VT (UNC)
Big East: South Florida
CUSA: SMU (UCF)                            East: East Carolina            West: SMU (UCF)
MAC: Ohio                                          East: Ohio                            West: CMU
MWC: Nevada
Sun Belt: FIU
WAC: La Tech

Projected BCS Bowls
Championship Game: Florida State Seminoles vs. USC Trojans – I believe Georgia will be ranked in the top 2 at end of regular season since they have a favorable SEC schedule, but will lose to Alabama in the title game and thus fall out of consideration.  Florida State will have the best record of any team by end of the season going 12-1 including an ACC Championship game win, and USC will avenge a regular season loss to Oregon, thus giving them the edge over Alabama for the second spot.
Rose Bowl: Oregon Ducks vs. Michigan Wolverines – Pac 12 runner up Oregon, who after winning at the Coliseum in early November, will lose the rematch in Autzen giving the Trojans a spot in the title game.  Michigan will win the Big Ten title, and this will be an excellent matchup in Denard Robinson’s final game as a Wolverine.
Sugar Bowl: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. West Virginia Mountaineers – Alabama will wind up being SEC champion, but will have multiple losses including one as a medium to large favorite and thus will not be impressive enough to appear in the championship game again.  West Virginia will be an at-large selection as the 2nd best Big 12 team.
Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma Sooners vs. Clemson Tigers – Oklahoma will win the Big 12 regular season through tiebreakers being that the conference will not have a championship game this season.  Clemson will be another at-large pick, the second ACC team, giving us an excellent matchup.
Orange Bowl: South Florida Bulls vs. Georgia Bulldogs – USF will win their first Big East championship, and get to play in their backyard in a BCS game.  Georgia will be coming off a loss in the SEC title game that could have secured them a spot in the national championship game.  The Orange Bowl will get first selection of at-large teams if they lose Florida State to the title game, which I expect, and hence will select SEC runner-up Georgia which should help the bowl at least sell a lot of tickets with both teams being in close proximity to the venue.

Ten best games of the season (in chronological order):
  • September 1: Michigan vs. Alabama
  • September 22: Clemson @ Florida State
  • October 6: Georgia @ South Carolina
  • November 3: Oregon @ USC
  • November 3: Alabama @ LSU
  • November 17: Oklahoma @ West Virginia
  • November 24: Florida @ Florida State
  • November 24: South Carolina @ Clemson
  • November 24: Michigan @ Ohio State
  • November 24: Notre Dame @ USC

Top Five Heisman contenders, in order:
  1. Matt Barkley – QB USC
  2. Aaron Murray – QB Georgia
  3. Marcus Mariota – QB Oregon
  4. Tajh Boyd – QB Clemson
  5. Marcus Lattimore – RB South Carolina

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