2012 NFL Schedule Analysis

We have known the opponents for quite some time, but recently, NFL schedule maker Howard Katz put the finishing touches on the 2012 season by setting up each matchup across the 17 weeks of the regular season.  Talk about a tough job!  Obviously he cannot make every team happy, as he does have a tough gig – but let’s take a closer look first at SOS measured by my final power ratings for the 2011 regular season; then taking a look at SOS using initial 2012 figures including both my current power rankings for each team which is based on statistical performance, along with the second piece of my ratings that plays out the entire season based on the aforementioned power ratings which gives me another rating – blended those two make up each team’s power rating. 

We all have read, or can easily read, SOS #’s for next year’s schedule based on opponent winning % last year – that is all the media discusses.  I myself do not find a ton of value in that exercise, and frankly that is very straightforward and too heavy on last year’s record – not even true performance statistically which is a better true feel for how a team will play.  The main reason using last year’s records for current season SOS is not a good exercise is each season we can expect at least 8 & usually no more than 12 teams will shift their win total by four or more – hence, not a lot of promise in doing any SOS analysis based on last year’s records.  

	2012 Schedule Rank			2012 Schedule Rank
	Based on 2011			Based on End of Season			2012 Schedule Rank
	Statistical Performance (a)	RANKING		2011 Power Ratings (b)	RANKING		Blended 50/50	RANKING
NY GIANTS	191	1		355	1		2	1
DENVER	225	4		348	2		6	2
WASHINGTON	220	2		344	4		6	2
TAMPA BAY	228	5		346	3		8	4
CLEVELAND	224	3		341	9		12	5
BALTIMORE	231	6		343	7		13	6
PHILADELPHIA	234	7		341	9		16	7
CAROLINA	243	11		343	6		17	8
CINCINNATI	238	8		339	11		19	9
TENNESSEE	256	14		343	5		19	9
ARIZONA	254	13		342	8		21	11
DALLAS	240	9		337	13		22	12
ATLANTA	254	13		334	16		29	13
NEW ORLEANS	243	11		333	18		29	13
OAKLAND	266	18		339	12		30	15
NY JETS	283	21		334	15		36	16
KANSAS CITY	260	16		329	22		38	17
SAN DIEGO	265	17		330	21		38	17
INDIANAPOLIS	286	23		334	16		39	19
SEATTLE	276	19		332	20		39	19
ST LOUIS	288	25		335	14		39	19
PITTSBURGH	259	15		328	25		40	22
CHICAGO	284	22		328	24		46	23
JACKSONVILLE	278	20		325	28		48	24
DETROIT	292	26		329	23		49	25
SAN FRANCISCO	300	31		332	19		50	26
MIAMI	288	25		326	26		51	27
GREEN BAY	300	31		326	26		57	28
MINNESOTA	298	28		321	30		58	29
NEW ENGLAND	295	27		321	31		58	29
BUFFALO	300	31		324	29		60	31
HOUSTON	319	32		317	32		64	32
(a) Represents an aggregate of full season rankings based on statistical performance rank.  The lower a number is the tougher the schedule played.
(b) Represents an aggregate of full season rankings based on 2011 final power ratings.  The higher a number is the tougher the schedule played.

Above I outline SOS based on two factors – first column is based on where opponents slotted in my “statistical performance ratings” – as support for footnote (a), a lower raw figure represents a stronger schedule because the best statistical performing team from last year obviously gets a #1 rank; the second column is based on my 2011 end of season power ratings – as support for footnote (b), a higher raw figure represents a stronger schedule because the team with the best power rating would have the highest number.  The third column is an aggregation of the “rank” columns from the first two “rank” columns, and those are then ranked in the far right green column to give an overall blended SOS based on those two measurements. 

Based on this type of analysis, using a pair of 2011 systems to project 2012 SOS, NYG have the strongest schedule – which many would argue makes sense because after all, they are the defending Super Bowl Champions – but we all know it doesn’t work that way, it just so happens with the rotation of inter-conference play the Giants come in at the top.  DEN & WAS are tied for second, while TB & CLE round out the top 5. 

While there is some value at using 2011 figures in an SOS analysis, let’s move forward some and focus on using my initial 2012 ratings for SOS.  Keep in mind however tweaks will still be needed before the season starts, but as of now I have made adjustments to include injuries, FA moves, key draft picks, coaching changes, etc.

	SOS Rank based on Initial			SOS Rank based on 2011
	2012 Power Ratings			50/50 blend (from above)
	Raw Score	RANK		RANK		Variance (a)
NY GIANTS	349	1		1		0
TAMPA BAY	348	2		4		(2)
CLEVELAND	344	3		5		(2)
ARIZONA	344	4		11		(7)
NEW ORLEANS	343	5		13		(8)
BALTIMORE	342	6		6		0
DALLAS	341	7		12		(5)
DENVER	341	8		2		6
PHILADELPHIA	340	9		7		2
WASHINGTON	340	9		2		7
SEATTLE	339	11		19		(8)
CAROLINA	339	12		8		4
ATLANTA	339	12		13		(1)
TENNESSEE	337	14		9		5
ST LOUIS	336	15		19		(4)
CHICAGO	335	16		23		(7)
CINCINNATI	334	17		9		8
SAN FRANCISCO	334	18		26		(8)
DETROIT	333	19		25		(6)
KANSAS CITY	333	20		17		3
MIAMI	332	21		27		(6)
JACKSONVILLE	332	22		24		(2)
PITTSBURGH	332	23		22		1
MINNESOTA	332	24		29		(5)
SAN DIEGO	331	25		17		8
NY JETS	331	26		16		10
OAKLAND	330	27		15		12
GREEN BAY	330	28		28		0
INDIANAPOLIS	328	29		19		10
NEW ENGLAND	328	29		29		0
BUFFALO	325	31		31		0
HOUSTON	318	32		32		0
(a) Represents the difference between SOS using 2012 Initial Power Ratings vs. using blended 2011 Ratings from above (far right column)

What does this all mean?  A LOT!  The numbers in this matrix are sorted based on 2012 rating projected strength.  We can see there was limited movement at the top of the ratings as the NYG remain as the #1 toughest schedule, while TB & CLE stay amongst the top 5.  ARI & NO did take pretty significant jumps, sliding up into the top 5, while DEN & WAS dropped some but remained in the top ten.  One key item that really stands out is towards the bottom where we see HOU as having the easiest schedule, with NE, GB, NYJ, SD & PIT amongst the bottom ten.  All those teams have designs on at least reaching the playoffs, with quite a few having Super Bowl dreams – and it appears at this stage their schedule will assist them in reaching some of those goals.

There is my initial SOS analysis for the 2012 season – I did not want to spend a ton of time discussing the #s at this point as they will still move a bunch before the season starts – so we can come back to this exercise in late August and measure the impact of changes to power ratings before the season starts. 

There is so much more to come!  Here is a brief look at some of the entries I am already working on – the plan is to post at least one, and possibly two per week in the near future, at least through May.

1. Key Trends over last four seasons breakdown by team
2. Updated Turnover Analysis
3. Detailed team by team schedule capsules examining actual layout of games, the impact divisional games have, the start times, etc….I will likely break this down into 8 entries to the blog, one division per entry, two entries per week
4. Updated Leading Indicators Analysis
5. Statistical Influence on games – which have the greatest, and show examples from last year
6. Projected Standings using my initial power ratings to play the entire season out
7. The +/- 4 games analysis – each season we see approximately 25% of teams increase of decrease their win total from the prior year by 4+.  We will examine who has done this over the last few years, and try to identify prime candidates to pull it off in 2012

That only mentions a few of the great NFL things I am working on for the coming season.  Be sure to continue checking back here for more information, and as always, if you have any questions or comments do not hesitate to email me directly at boss@thesportsboss.com, or leave comment here on the blog for everyone to use as a discussion.

COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2012