ROUNDED
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AFC East
|
Wins
|
Loss
|
NFC East
|
Wins
|
Loss
| |
NE
|
10.6
|
5.4
|
PHI
|
9.2
|
6.8
| |
BUF
|
9.3
|
6.8
|
NYG
|
8.6
|
7.4
| |
NYJ
|
9.2
|
6.8
|
DAL
|
8.6
|
7.4
| |
MIA
|
3.4
|
12.6
|
WAS
|
7.1
|
8.9
| |
AFC North
|
NFC North
| |||||
PIT
|
11.7
|
4.3
|
GB
|
13.5
|
2.5
| |
BAL
|
10.4
|
5.6
|
DET
|
9.6
|
6.4
| |
CIN
|
9.1
|
6.9
|
CHI
|
8.1
|
7.9
| |
CLE
|
6.4
|
9.6
|
MIN
|
5.4
|
10.6
| |
AFC South
|
NFC South
| |||||
HOU
|
10.9
|
5.1
|
NO
|
10.7
|
5.3
| |
TEN
|
7.6
|
8.4
|
ATL
|
8.6
|
7.4
| |
JAC
|
5.7
|
10.3
|
TB
|
7.7
|
8.3
| |
IND
|
2.3
|
13.7
|
CAR
|
5.6
|
10.4
| |
AFC West
|
NFC West
| |||||
SD
|
9.9
|
6.1
|
SF
|
10.9
|
5.1
| |
KC
|
7.9
|
8.1
|
SEA
|
5.9
|
10.1
| |
OAK
|
7.0
|
9.0
|
STL
|
4.4
|
11.6
| |
DEN
|
6.3
|
9.7
|
ARI
|
4.4
|
11.6
| |
Playoffs
|
Playoffs
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#6 BUF @ #3 NE
|
#6 ATL@ #3 NO
| |||||
#5 BAL @ #4 SD
|
#5 DET @ #4 PHI
| |||||
#1 PIT
|
#1 GB
| |||||
#2 HOU
|
#2 SF
| |||||
Last few weeks most of the seeds for playoffs have not changed until this week we had some moves like PHI now winning East up to 4 seed, SF jumped up to #2 seed, NO down to #3 seed in NFC. AFC BUF jumped over NYJ for the final playoff spot, HOU jumped up to #2 seed flip flopping with NE, and SD feel to #4. Also of note ATL has a .05 wins edge on NYG and .053 wins edge on DAL for the final playoff spot currently.
This week brings a couple very key games for potential playoff positioning:
MIA@KC: even though in my projections KC is 2 projected wins behind SD the fact is currently they are tied with the Chargers & Raiders in the AFC West following their thrilling MNF victory. KC cannot afford a stumble here vs. the winless Dolphins.
ATL@IND: similar to the MIA/KC matchup, ATL is projected to barely win the final WC spot as things currently stand. A loss to the winless Colts will dramatically impact their ability to reach the playoffs, while a Colts win would bring MIA (with a loss) and possibly a few others teams back into the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.
TB@NO: Bucs already handled NO earlier this season in Tampa, now the rematch in NO on Sunday. Saints will be ultra focused following their baffling loss at Rams last week, and also because they already lost to TB. Not a massive game for TB here as in a must win, but currently they are projected about 1 to 1.5 games out of the final WC spot, so all games are key.
NYJ@BUF: huge game here, maybe the biggest of the week as BUF overtook the NYJ for the final playoff spot in this week’s projection following the NYJ bye week so both teams now on even footing having already had their bye. This is the first of two meetings in four weeks between the AFC East rivals.
SEA@DAL: Dallas can ill afford a stumble this week hosting the Seahawks after that debacle on SNF in Philadelphia. SEA already pulled off one road stunner this year taking out the Giants in Wk5.
CLE@HOU: HOU figures to battle it out for the #2 seed with New England and the AFC North winner currently. So with that in mind a home loss to CLE would be a killer and greatly impact the chances of achieving that goal.
SF@WAS: the Niners almost certainly will win the NFC West and are really are only playing for seeding in January. WAS has really struggled following a 3-1 start losing 3 straight, and have a very tumultuous QB spot. This is a must win for WAS to have any chance at making a second half run, and that probably means they need Rex Grossman under center.
CIN@TEN: very key under the radar game in Nashville on Sunday as the upstart Bengals face the Titans. CIN finds itself in the AFC North which doesn’t do them any help, but considering they still have 5 of their 6 division games remaining on their schedule (including 4 straight starting next week) they will control their own destiny. If TEN takes a home loss here their chances will be slim to none at playing in January – and those chances are already remote.
DEN@OAK: OAK finds itself in a tie at the top of the AFC West standings, whereas DEN is already looking towards next season. These two teams opened the season on MNF and the Raiders came out on top in Denver, there is no reason to believe this game will be any different.
NYG@NE: outside the NYJ@BUF & BAL@PIT matchups this game probably has the most playoff implications as we currently stand. The NYG are in a battle for the NFC East title and currently hold a 2gm lead in the loss column over the other trio of teams in the division. NE will be looking to bounce back off last week’s loss in Pittsburgh, and will still have some revenge on their minds following the Super Bowl of a few years ago. Bigger game for NE.
GB@SD: the Packers remain the only undefeated team in the league, whereas SD continues to play uninspiring football thus far in 2011. GB figures to have a lot of success through the air on a Chargers secondary that gave up quite a few big pass plays on MNF vs. Kansas City. GB is almost a cinch as the #1 seed in the NFC, whereas SD is in a battle to win their division and a likely 4 seed.
BAL@PIT: rematch of an opening weekend battle won big by BAL, driven a lot by the +7 TO margin in that game that BAL enjoyed. This time BAL is coming in struggling some, losing at JAC on MNF two weeks ago and completing a major comeback over ARI at home last week to win that game by 3 at the horn. PIT is coming in off a massive win over long time nemesis NE. This game will go a long way to determining the AFC North winner.
CHI@PHI: with CHI in the AFC North they are essentially playing for a WC, and really have to deal with a tough divisional schedule featuring GB and DET – whom they are 0-2 vs. this year already. Their schedule does lighten up some over the 2nd half of the season, especially their road games, so this would really be a huge win for the Bears if they could pull it out. PHI is trying to climb out of their 1-4 start and has won 2 straight including a very impressive win over DAL last week.
As far as my performance ratings go and the current projected playoff teams, here is what that looks like:
AFC (seed, team, performance rating thus far)
1 PIT #4
2 HOU #1
3 NE #13 (tied with CIN)
4 SD #7
5 BAL #16
6 BUF #9
NFC (seed, team, performance rating thus far)
1 GB #3
2 SF #6
3 NO #5
4 PHI #2
5 DET #8
6 ATL #18
Also of note, right now IND is grabbing #1 pick, and they have some cushion for sure as next up is MIA at 3.4 wins, 1.1 wins in this model behind IND but as I have mentioned its not really calibrated to actual wins and losses (but does become more and more calibrated as the season plays out) so that number is really between 1.5 and 2 projected wins difference – it will take a miracle for IND to not grab that pick, which will bring up a very interesting decision for them – trade pick, stick with Manning and grab a stud OL; draft Luck and keep Peyton; or draft Luck and let Peyton go. ©The SportsBoss 2011
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