With the World Cup just about one month away let’s take a
look at each group, examining past success of each team and what they can
expect in this year’s tournament.
Before jumping into a group by group analysis let’s first
take a look at how each confederation has performed in the last 5 World Cup’s
to get a feel for approximate success rate of reaching the knockout stage &
deeper into the tournament:
|
L5 CUPS
|
16
|
QF
|
SF
|
FINAL
|
WINNER
|
|
CONCACAF
|
8
|
1
|
|
|
|
|
CONMEBOL
|
15
|
10
|
4
|
3
|
2
|
|
UEFA
|
46
|
26
|
15
|
7
|
3
|
|
AFC
|
5
|
1
|
|
|
|
|
CAF
|
5
|
2
|
1
|
|
|
|
OFC
|
1
|
|
|
|
|
This matrix probably comes as no surprise to many soccer
fans, but perhaps the domination of the UEFA region is – they have placed the
following %’s of teams in each round:
·
Round of 16: 57.5%
·
Quarterfinals: 65.0%
·
Semifinals: 75.0%
·
Final: 70.0%
·
Champion: 60%
That is pure & utter domination folks – take a look at
the semifinal round for example: 20 teams have reached that stage over the last
5 World Cups and 15 of those teams were from UEFA! There also has been only one team that has
reached the semifinal round from outside CONMEBOL or UEFA during that time
period – that was 2002 South Korea, who reached that round playing nearly home
games in Japan. Otherwise it has been
domination of CONMEBOL & UEFA – and with this year’s tournament taking
place in Brazil I look for similar splits when all is said & done. To give even more of a feel for how strong
the UEFA confederation is here are the Top 50 teams in the FIFA World Rankings
that are NOT playing in the 2014 World Cup:
|
COUNTRY
|
REGION
|
RANK
|
|
UKRAINE
|
UEFA
|
17
|
|
SCOTLAND
|
UEFA
|
22
|
|
DENMARK
|
UEFA
|
23
|
|
EGYPT
|
CAF
|
24
|
|
SWEDEN
|
UEFA
|
25
|
|
SLOVENIA
|
UEFA
|
29
|
|
SERBIA
|
UEFA
|
30
|
|
ROMANIA
|
UEFA
|
32
|
|
ARMENIA
|
UEFA
|
33
|
|
PANAMA
|
CONCACAF
|
35
|
|
CZECH REPUBLIC
|
UEFA
|
36
|
|
TURKEY
|
UEFA
|
39
|
|
AUSTRIA
|
UEFA
|
40
|
|
VENEZUELA
|
CONMEBOL
|
41
|
|
PERU
|
CONMEBOL
|
42
|
|
CAPE VERDE ISLES
|
CAF
|
42
|
|
HUNGARY
|
UEFA
|
45
|
|
SLOVAKIA
|
UEFA
|
46
|
|
WALES
|
UEFA
|
47
|
|
TUNISIA
|
CAF
|
49
|
We can see from this list how dominant the UEFA
confederation is as 13 of the 32 entrants in the 2014 World Cup come from UEFA,
while 14 teams currently ranked inside the Top 50 World Rankings come from UEFA
as well.
Keeping with this theme let’s now take a look at year by
year results by confederation – the sum of these five breakdowns will equal the
splits in the green matrix above:
|
2010
|
16
|
QF
|
SF
|
FINAL
|
WINNER
|
|
CONCACAF
|
2
|
||||
|
CONMEBOL
|
5
|
4
|
1
|
||
|
UEFA
|
6
|
3
|
3
|
2
|
1
|
|
AFC
|
2
|
||||
|
CAF
|
1
|
1
|
|||
|
OFC
|
|||||
|
2006
|
16
|
QF
|
SF
|
FINAL
|
WINNER
|
|
CONCACAF
|
1
|
||||
|
CONMEBOL
|
3
|
2
|
|||
|
UEFA
|
10
|
6
|
4
|
2
|
1
|
|
AFC
|
|||||
|
CAF
|
1
|
||||
|
OFC
|
1
|
||||
|
2002
|
16
|
QF
|
SF
|
FINAL
|
WINNER
|
|
CONCACAF
|
2
|
1
|
|||
|
CONMEBOL
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
|
UEFA
|
9
|
4
|
2
|
1
|
|
|
AFC
|
2
|
1
|
|||
|
CAF
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
||
|
OFC
|
|
1998
|
16
|
QF
|
SF
|
FINAL
|
WINNER
|
|
CONCACAF
|
1
|
||||
|
CONMEBOL
|
3
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
|
|
UEFA
|
11
|
6
|
3
|
1
|
1
|
|
AFC
|
|||||
|
CAF
|
1
|
||||
|
OFC
|
|||||
|
1994
|
16
|
QF
|
SF
|
FINAL
|
WINNER
|
|
CONCACAF
|
2
|
||||
|
CONMEBOL
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
|
UEFA
|
10
|
7
|
3
|
1
|
|
|
AFC
|
1
|
||||
|
CAF
|
1
|
||||
|
OFC
|
Going back to 1994 & 1998 is almost certainly too far
back to have an impact on this year’s tournament, as is perhaps 2002, but it still
can provide a feel for the type of breakdown we can expect when filling out
your bracket.
In case you are not familiar with the confederations I have
laid out above here is a breakdown showing which teams will represent them in this year’s
tournament:
|
AFC
|
CAF
|
CONCACAF
|
CONMEBOL
|
UEFA
|
|
Australia
|
Algeria
|
Costa Rica
|
Argentina
|
Belgium
|
|
Iran
|
Cameroon
|
Honduras
|
Brazil
|
Bos & Herz
|
|
Japan
|
Ghana
|
Mexico
|
Chile
|
Croatia
|
|
South Korea
|
Ivory Coast
|
United States
|
Colombia
|
England
|
|
Nigeria
|
Ecuador
|
France
|
||
|
Uruguay
|
Germany
|
|||
|
Greece
|
||||
|
Italy
|
||||
|
Netherlands
|
||||
|
Portugal
|
||||
|
Russia
|
||||
|
Spain
|
||||
|
Switzerland
|
*No teams qualified for the 2014 World Cup from OFC
Now that we have laid out which teams are in this year’s
competition & broken down which confederations have the most success let’s jump into
group analysis. Check back tomorrow for an analysis of Groups A, B, C, D.
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