The SportsBoss

2012 NCAA Tournament- Projected Update thru 2/26

2012-02-28T12:33:00.000-08:00

2012 NCAA Tournament – Projected Field – UPDATED THRU 2/26 GAMES

I will breakdown each conference and the team’s who I viewas a “lock” right now, who are likely to dance, and who are still alive butneed to do some work (obviously any team that wins their conference tournamentgets a bid, but in this last bucket I am only including team’s whose record/RPIcould still get them an at-large bid if they play well down the stretch). Teams are also listed in the order I viewtheir seeding or chances of receiving a bid.

America East:Stony Brook

Thisonly auto-bid league will likely come down to Stony Brook vs. Vermont in theconference tournament. The teams splittheir regular season meetings with SB winning by 6 at home on Jan 2, butVermont crushing SB at home on Feb 12 by 19.

Atlantic Ten:Temple

Lookinggood: St. Louis, Xavier. TheBillikens are a LOCK to go dancing, while Xavier sits very well on the back ofa few quality OOC wins over Vanderbilt, Cincinnati and to a lesser extentPurdue and Butler. These two teams faceoff this week, a win by Xavier would seal their deal for earning a bid.

UMasswas removed from the “need wins” category after going 1-2 the last week and ahalf including a 33pt loss @ Dayton on Saturday. I have maintained thru all these editions theA10 seems like a 3 bid conference, and I still feel that way – perhaps evenmoreso in this edition as what also needs to be considered as I mention belowis there will be conference tournament upsets which will remove some of theprojected at-large bids we forecast here. While Joe Lunardi continues displaying outright “homerism” placing St.Joseph’s in his “last four out” bucket, I do not see any shot barring at leasta run to the A10 Conference Tournament final for them to receive a bid with anRPI in the mid 60’s, and 11 losses already. The typical absolute cut-off as far as RPI’s and at-large bids is 60,and with only one game remaining vs. mid 50s RPI St. Bonaventure, I personallydo not see it happening for the Hawks.

ACC: North Carolina

Lookinggood: Duke, Florida State, Virginia

Needwins: Miami (FL), NC State. With anRPI around #40 and key wins @ Duke and yesterday over Florida State, Miami (FL)is almost a lock to receive an at-large, barring a very early exit in the ACCTournament. NC State was sitting verynicely as far as at-large bids goes in the second half of a Feb. 16 game @ Duke– unfortunately for the Pack they blew a 20pt lead in that game, and have notrecovered since losing 4 straight and putting them at risk of missing thedance. They currently sit with an RPIaround the imaginary cut-off of #60, but they do host Miami (FL) on Wednesdayin an absolute must-win game. Inaddition they likely will need a pair of wins (at least) in the ACC Tournamentto receive legit consideration – their bracket will shape up something likefirst round match-up vs. BC/GT, second round vs. UVA/Miami, and potentialsemi-final vs. FSU/Duke or UNC loser from this week’s game.

Atlantic Sun:Belmont

Thisleague will likely be decided between Belmont and Mercer in the A-SunTourney. Belmont won the pair of regularseason match-ups between these schools, but only by a combined 5pts – and withthe understanding it is very tough to beat a team three times in one season,the potential conference tournament final could be a good one, and a legit spotwhere Mercer could steal this conference’s only bid.

Big 12: Kansas

Lookinggood: Missouri, Baylor, Iowa State

Needwins: Kansas State, Texas. Both ofthese teams sit very well in the at-large pecking order as far as RPI goes,hovering around the mid 20s currently. KST can lock up a bid this week if they can sweep their pair of games, @A&M and hosting OKST. The majorissue with the Wildcats is their conference record that currently sits at 8-8 –they at least obviously need 9-9 – if they can get there, and pick up a win ortwo in the conference tournament, they will earn a bid as they already havevictories over Alabama, Long Beach State, Missouri twice, and Baylor. Texas made their debut in this analysis lastedition, but went 1-2 in their last 3 – their only win an OT win @ a bad TexasTech team. The Horns lack a signaturewin, and also clearly need to go at least 9-9 in conference play (which wouldbe 1-1 to close) to have any shot – they have a chance to solve a lot of theirtroubles this Saturday if they could win @ Kansas. What may hold Texas back in their 2-7 markvs. the other 5 Big 12 teams listed here, only beating Iowa State and KansasState at home.

Big East: Syracuse

Lookinggood: Marquette, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, Cincinnati. The Bearcats move up a level to “lookinggood” in this edition as with 10+ conference wins, 20+ overall wins, and an RPIsub 40 I believe they will receive a bid come Selection Sunday.

Needwins: South Florida, Seton Hall, UConn, West Virginia. Things have cleared themselves up a littlemore as far as Big East bids goes, but there is still a lot of work that needsto be done for these four teams to receive an at-large invite. We did see some sliding amongst these teamsas far as who I see as the most likely to receive a bid as WVU was the “mostlikely” in last edition, now they are the “least likely” in my opinion – othershave shifted as well. The first pointthat can be made is both West Virginia and UConn will need to win BOTH theirremaining regular season games to have any shot – that would move each to 9-9in conference play. That feat seems morelikely to be completed by UConn as the Huskies travel to Providence, and hostPittsburgh – while WVU hosts DePaul but then travels to South Florida in whatwill be a massive game for at-large positioning next weekend. Seton Hall only has one regular season gameremaining @ DePaul, a game they also must win to move to 9-9 in conferenceplay. USF is one of the most interestingteams I have come across in recent memory as far as this exercise goes – on onehand they are 11-5 in Big East play – no team has ever not made the dance withthat kind of mark – yet their RPI sits around #70 which would make them one ofthe worst teams of all time to receive a bid as far as RPI goes. The Bulls could NO DOUBT seal their fate toreceiving a bid if they can close 2-0 @ Louisville and hosting West Virginia;1-1 I still think they are positioned nicely; 0-2 may mean some trouble. If the teams on this list can reach .500 inconference play maybe the safest bet to make would be whichever team goes thefurthest in the Big East Tournament will receive a bid. Right now, barring small conferencetournament upsets, the BE seems like a 8 to 9 bid league – which means 2 to 3of these teams will make it. Two is probablythe most likely scenario when taking into consideration the likely hood we willsee 3-5 upsets.

Big Sky: WeberState

The BigSky will likely come down to a battle between Weber State and Montana. On Jan 14^th WST took down MONrather easily which is why they hold the current bid in this edition, but thereturn game is on Feb 28^th@ Montana, with a probable 3^rdmeeting in the conference tournament final to determine the automatic bid.

Big South:UNC-Asheville

UNCA has a 4 game lead in theirconference, so any other team winning this conference tournament wouldcertainly be an upset but would not steal an at-large bid as the Big South isdefinitely a one bid conference.

Big Ten: OhioState

Lookinggood: Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana

Needwins: Purdue. The Boilers check inthis week at 19-10/9-7, high 20s RPI – all decent numbers that have beenimproving over the last few weeks. Purduealso picked up a signature win on Saturday, beating Michigan on the road – theyare still only 1-6 vs. ranked teams, but do have decent wins over Temple, Ionaand Miami (FL) earlier in the season. Withgames remaining vs. Penn State and @ Indiana, a 2-0 sweep would have themsitting almost as a lock barring a first round Big Ten Tournament exit – thekey this week has to be at least getting one win moving them to a > .500conference record. The BT Tourneybracket for Purdue will shape up something like first round vs. PennState/Nebraska, second round vs. Ohio State/Michigan – in almost every scenarioI can imagine they would have to certainly avoid a loss to PSU/Nebraska in thatfirst round.

Big West: LongBeach State

If LBSTdoes not win their conference tournament they would still receive a bid, thus taking one away from the currentat-large pool. The Beach is 14-0 inconference play, easily plowing through the competition this season – but wehave seen this before, recently from LBST, only to have them lose in theconference tournament. As talked aboutoften in this article, it is tough sledding trying to beat teams for the thirdtime in one season – which they will have to do multiple times to earn theirconference’s auto-bid.

Colonial: Drexel

Lookinggood: VCU. The Rams have beenupgraded to this category as they are currently sitting in high 40s RPI wise,relatively comfortable position for a team with a 25-6 record in one of the topmid-major conferences around. So long asthey at least reach the conference tournament final I feel they have a verystrong chance at receiving an at-large bid, especially considering they havewon 14 of their last 15 games, and their 3 conference losses have come by acombined 9 points. George Mason hasbeen removed from the “need wins” category following a pair of losses in theirlast two outings. But, that being said,Mason is still a very legit contender for winning the conference tournament –and if they did so, it would be very interesting to see if the selection committeedoes indeed give the Colonial three bids.

Conference USA:Memphis

Needwins: Southern Mississippi, UCF. SMISSwas downgraded this week from “looking good” to “need wins” after dropping twoof their last 3 to Houston and UTEP. With an RPI in the mid 60s the Golden Eagles will need to win their lasttwo vs. SMU and @ Marshall, along with making a run to at least the CUSATournament semi-finals to receive legitimate consideration. The Golden Knights are basically on the samepredicament, but a little worse – their RPI is hovering around #80, so I figurethey need to at least beat Memphis again on the road this week, close theregular season with a win over UAB, and go on a similar run in the conferencetournament. Just a few weeks ago thislooked like a possible 3 bid conference, now it’s looking like 1 is more likelyunless either of these teams gets real hot real fast.

Horizon: Valparaiso

TheHorizon is traditionally a one bid conference and there isn’t any reason tothink that will change this year. Thisleague is extremely competitive with not much difference between the top 8teams – so the tournament is sure to be exciting – and would not surprise meone bit if Valpo or even Cleveland State did not cut the nets down. I have placed action on Wisconsin-Green Bayto win the Horizon tournament at 50/1 odds.

Ivy: Harvard

If HARdoes not win their conference during the regular season (remember the IvyLeague does not have a conference tournament) they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus addingto the pool of current at-large teams. HAR has gone 3-2 in their last 5 league games, which places them in atie in the loss column for the top spot with Penn. Those two teams do not play again this yearafter splitting the regular season pair of contests – a playoff, similar towhat we saw last season, could be in the cards again for the Ivy auto-bid.

MAAC: Iona

If IONAdoes not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool ofcurrent at-large teams. The Gaels are avery dangerous team, make no mistake about it. On the season they are 24-6, and 5 of their 6 losses were by singledigits (including a 1pt loss to Purdue in their opener). Of the teams right behind them in theconference standings they did lose once to Loyola Maryland (#2 seed), andManhattan (#3 seed) – oddly that may bode well for them during ChampionshipWeek.

MAC: Akron

IfAKRON does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thusadding to the pool of current at-large teams. Akron maintains a 2gm lead with 2 to play, and they reside in thetougher East division of the MAC that has 5 of 6 teams above .500 in leagueplay. Although Akron will be thefavorite to win the conference tournament, I feel four teams have a legit shotat cutting the nets down (Akron, Ohio, Buffalo, Kent State) – so the auto-bidfor this league is not a certainty at this point.

MEAC: NorfolkState

AlthoughSavannah State has overtaken Norfolk State in the standings currently, and hasa better RPI, I am going to leave NS as my projected auto-bid winner based ontheir win over SS earlier in the season in the team’s only meeting.

Missouri Valley:Wichita State

Lookinggood: Creighton. The Blue Jays areback on the “looking good” line after closing the season with four straightwins including the big bracket-busters victory over Long Beach State. With an RPI in the high 30s, as long asCreighton picks up a couple of wins in the MVC Tournament they will solidifytheir spot amongst the Field of 68.

Mountain West:UNLV

Lookinggood: New Mexico, San Diego State

Needwins: Colorado State. Wyoming hasbeen removed from this list following their loss to Colorado State last weekwhich moved them to losing 4 of 5, and a below .500 in MWC play which certainlydoesn’t bode well for receiving an at-large. Then when you consider there are 3 teams that are close to locks to makethe field, getting four teams for this conference may be a stretch let alonefive. For now we will leave CSU but theyare on the brink of elimination, and must beat UNLV & Air Force to closetheir regular season at the very least to remain in the next edition beforeChampionship Week.

Northeast: LIUBrooklyn

LIUBhas grabbed my projected auto-bid from the NE based on their overtaking ofWagner in the standings, and the fact Long Island already beat Wagner twicethis season. Similar other examplesdiscussed above, the potential third meeting could have a bid on the line – andit is tough to beat a team three times in one season.

Ohio Valley:Murray State

If MSUdoes not win their conference tournament they would still receive a bid, thus taking one away from the currentat-large pool. Murray State has beenplaying very well since seeing their bid for an undefeated season come to anend 2.5 weeks ago – 5 straight wins and covers. Win or lose in the OVC Tourney they will be dancing, and they hope to atleast make the second weekend of action – and are a real threat to do so,especially with a favorable draw or an upset or two in their bracket.

Pac 12: California

Looking good: Arizona,Washington. Not much has occurred toseparate these teams since the last edition, but these three teams will be inthe field. California appears to be thebest team using the eye test, and some of the #’s as their RPI has beenclimbing steadily in recent weeks settling in the mid 20s today. Arizona and Washington will both also bedancing, probably being first round favorites seed wise come Selection Sunday.

Needwins: Oregon, Colorado, Stanford. Oregonhas clearly taken a step above Colorado and Stanford in the past three games,going 2-1 in road games including a win over Stanford. With the Ducks closing with a pair of homegames vs. Colorado and Utah, they appear to be in solid shape to be dancing asthe 4^th Pac 12 team. Coloradoand Stanford both have work to do – I like the Buffs resume more thanStanford’s, even considering Stanford does have a pair of nice OOC wins – butthe Cardinal win over Colorado last week may be the final nail in the Coloradocoffin. Both these teams have anopportunity to improve their positioning this week as Colorado faces bothOregon schools on the road, while Stanford hosts Cal to close the season. Both teams need to win those games to remainin the next edition – they are teetering right now on the brink of eliminationbarring a run in the Pac 12 Tourney. COLO figures to be the #5 seed which would set up a bracket facing USCin first round, then a big QF match-up with likely Oregon or possiblyArizona. Stanford on the other handfigures to likely fall to the #7 seed (assumes a loss to Cal in season finale)which would have them likely facing Arizona State in first round, then Cal orWashington in second. I think a safeassumption for both teams is win out, and must win AT LEAST TWO in Pac 12tournament to keep their hopes alive.

Patriot: Bucknell

SEC: Kentucky

Lookinggood: Florida, Vanderbilt, Alabama

Needwins: Mississippi State. Alabama hasjumped from the “need wins” group up to “looking good” based on going 3-0 overthe last week and a half, 6-2 in their last 8, an RPI in the low 20s, and OOCwins over Wichita State, Purdue and VCU. The Tide still has work to do, a 2-0 close to the regular season withwins over Auburn and Ole Miss would nearly lock them into a spot. Both Ole Miss and Arkansas were removed fromthis edition as we kind of forecasted happening last time we published, whileMississippi State has fallen from “looking good” to “need wins” based on losing5 straight, a sub .500 conference record, double digit losses, and an RPI thatcontinues to plummet now sitting in the low 80s. Not only do they need wins, but they need ‘emfast and furious to keep their faint hopes alive. At the very least the Bulldogs need to closethe year with wins @ South Carolina and home vs. Arkansas, and pick up one andmost likely two conference tourney wins – they will likely faceARK/MISS/AUB/UGA in first round, then either Florida or Kentucky in Rd2.

Southern: Davidson

If DAVdoes not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool ofcurrent at-large teams. Davidson couldhave helped themselves out huge had they beat Wichita State at home duringbracket-busters, but with that loss it is unlikely they would receive a bidshould they lose in their conference tournament.

Southland: Texas-Arlington

Similarto Long Beach State UTA has not lost a conference game this season – and thatmay NOT bode well come conference tournament time – we shall see.

SWAC: MississippiValley State

Similarto Long Beach State and UTA, MSVS has not lost a conference game this season –and that may NOT bode well come conference tournament time – we shall see.

Summit: OralRoberts

OR hasplowed thru the Summit League during the regular season only losing one game,but they may be in for a battle should they face South Dakota State in theconference tourney, whom they lost to by 15 earlier in the season.

Sun Belt: MiddleTennessee State

If MTSUdoes not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool ofcurrent at-large teams.

West Coast: St.Mary’s

Lookinggood: Gonzaga

Thosetwo teams are near locks tobe in the field, so if anyone else was to win the conference tournament thatwould likely take away a bid from the current at-large pool.

Needwins: BYU. The Cougars were swept bySt. Mary’s this year, but they did pick up a home win over Gonzaga which willhelp their case. BYU is positionedpretty strongly with a top 40 RPI, but an early exit from the WCC Tournamentcould be fatal.

WAC: Nevada

If NEVdoes not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool ofcurrent at-large teams.

FIELD: 68

AUTOMATIC BIDS: 31

LOOKING GOOD: 27

Currently I project 58of the 68 bids areearned.

NEED WINS: 17TEAMS I LISTED FOR 10 REMAINING SPOTS

If there are upsets inthe a handful of conference tournaments the at-large spots will be reduced – sothe ten “open” spots I listed here are likely to be less, almost a 100%certainty. So this time around I havelisted these teams in order, keeping in mind the most likely scenario onlysends the top 6 or 7 from this list because small conference tournament upsetswill steal auto-bids for some teams, and hence they will be forced into theat-large pool:

Kansas State
Miami (FL)
Purdue
BYU
South Florida
Texas
Oregon
SetonHall
UConn
Southern Mississippi

MULTIPLE BID CONFERENCES

Big East: 9 ACC: 5 Big Ten: 6 SEC: 4 A10: 3 Big12: 6

Colonial: 2 MWC: 3 Pac 12: 4 WCC: 3 MVC: 2 CUSA: 2

Differences from my bracket vs. the bracketologist himself,Mr. Joe Lunardi @ espn.com:

My latestprojection: Bracketologist:

West Virginia – OUT WestVirginia – IN (#12 seed)

South Florida – IN SouthFlorida – first four OUT

Northwestern – OUT Northwestern– IN (#13 seed)

Mississippi State – OUT MississippiState – IN (#12 seed)

VCU – IN VCU– first four OUT

Oregon – IN Oregon– next four OUT

Let’s first revisit the biggest differences from the 2/16edition to see where we both stand on the pair I pointed out from this blog 10days ago:

Illinois: Lunardi had the Illini inthe field 10 days ago, I did not. TodayLunardi does not have them included, and I still do not. Looks like a check mark for me.

VCU:Lunardi did not even list VCU in his first 8 teams out 10 days ago, I had theRams in. Today Lunardi has the Rams asfirst four out, while I still have them in the field. Looks like another check mark for me.

I guess at this point I should be asking why this guy has ajob, right? J

Now let’s examine the biggest differences between the two ofus where things stand today:

Big East:Lunardi has WVU solidly in his bracket, not even amongst the last four in whileI have WVU as the clear-cut 10^th best team in the Big East and hencenot making the dance. Even though Icurrently list 9 teams from the Big East receiving bids, I think that # windsup being 8 as UConn will be pushed out after conference tournament upsets nextweek; Lunardi currently has UConn as comfortably in his bracket as a 10 seed –I just do not understand that, I know they have a great RPI but they are 7-9 inconference play and if they do not AT LEAST win both their last two contests ofthe regular season they are more than likely OUT – so to have them in socomfortably is mind boggling. Lastly,USF, I have them in the field right now pretty comfortably, while Lunardi hasthem just missing – and again, to stress the point, his “first four out” ismore likely the “4^th to 8^th teams out” because as team’slose in conference tournaments his “first four out” bucket will only slidefurther down the list when team’s he currently projects as in lose. USF is a bit of a conundrum as they do have aterrible RPI for a team with their record playing in a power conference, but atthe end of the day if they go 12-6 or better in the Big East, unbalancedschedule or not, they will get a bid in my opinion.

Northwestern &Mississippi State: I have neither coming close to making the dance atthis point, and to be fair he has both barely sneaking in playing those“play-in” games on Tuesday night. At theend of the day team’s he has listed in those games almost certainly will slideoff the bracket after upsets, so we most likely will wind up agreeing thatthese two teams will miss out – but nevertheless, for now we both are assumingthere are no upsets, and he still lists both while I list neither.

VCU: asdiscussed above, I still list them as in the Field of 68, while Lunardi has atleast upgraded the Rams to his “first four out” bucket. Time will tell, but a conference like theColonial with three very solid clubs in my opinion deserves and will get twobids – keep in mind Mason is still alive in the sense they have a legit shot atwinning the conference tourney. If thatwas to happen I would give the other to either Drexel or VCU if they played inthe Final vs. Mason, if neither made it I would give it to Drexel. If neither makes the semifinals of theconference tourney I may adjust and not give out two bids to this conference.

Oregon: Ifeel pretty good about Oregon; they pass my eye test for sure as I have watchedquite a few of their games recently including last night @ Oregon State. 20 wins, 11 in Pac 12 – yeah they could use aboost to an RPI that sits around #70, but let’s see how rest of season andtourney plays out. Lunardi has thempretty safely OUT of the tournament right now as they reside in his “next fourout” bucket that at the end of the day is probably a 2 seed in the NIT – thathow far off they will be from making the cut.

COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2012

WGC: Accenture Match-Play Bracket

2012-02-22T11:58:00.001-08:00

Something that may not be known as far as my clients and my website goes is I am a MASSIVE GOLF FAN - golf is actually my favorite sport, right along with college football. But since it is such a tough sport to handicap, I do not post plays for golf - but with this tourney being bracket format, and since I do a few pools with friends, here are my picks - sorry being posted a little late, but this is what I had this morning:

Bobby Jones
First round winners (seeds listed): 1, 9, 13, 12, 2, 7, 3, 6
Sweet 16: 1 Donald, 13 Stanley, 2 Scott, 3 Johnson
Elite 8: 13 Stanley, 2 Scott
Final Four: 13 Stanley

Ben Hogan
First round winners: 1, 8, 4, 12, 2, 10, 14, 11
Sweet 16: 8 Toms, 4 Kuchar, 10 Baddeley, 14 Yang
Elite 8: 8 Toms, 14 Yang
Final Four: 8 Toms

Gary Player
First round winners: 1, 8, 4, 12, 2, 10, 3, 6
Sweet 16: 1 McIlroy, 12 Ogilvy, 10 Senden, 3 Schwartzel
Elite 8: 1 McIlroy, 3 Schwartzel
Final Four: 3 Schwartzel

Sam Snead
First round winners: 16, 8, 4, 5, 2, 7, 3, 11
Sweet 16: 8 Karlsson, 5 Woods, 2 Simpson, 11 Lawrie
Elite 8: 5 Woods, 11 Lawrie
Final Four: 5 Woods

Semifinals
13 Stanley over 8 Toms
5 Woods over 3 Schwartzel

Final
5 Woods over 13 Stanley

Consolation
3 Schwartzel over 8 Toms

I will be back either tomorrow or Friday with some additional analysis of how the first day or two has gone, and what we can expect as we head into the weekend.

NCAA Tournament Projected Field thru 2/16 games

2012-02-18T08:11:00.001-08:00

America East:Stony Brook

Atlantic Ten:Temple

Lookinggood: St. Louis, Xavier

Needwins: UMass. The Minutemen went 1-1this past week, and have an RPI hovering around #70 – not good for chances ofan at-large to be frank. But with an18-7/7-4 record they are still alive. With games remaining vs. Temple & Xavier, the opportunity is therefor big wins – they most likely need at least a split in those and to win theirother two to have a legit shot barring a big run in the A-10 Tourney. LaSalle, losers of 3 straight with an RPIaround #85 has been removed as a potential at-large recipient. The A-10 appears to be a 3 bid league, with afourth an unlikely option.

ACC: NorthCarolina

Lookinggood: Duke, Florida State, Virginia

Needwins: Miami (FL), NC State. Miami didn’tdo themselves any favors this past week losing a pair of games to UNC andFlorida State. But with an RPI of #42,and a key win @ Duke they are still alive for an at-large – though apotentially tough closing schedule may be tough to navigate through 4-1, whichis what I think they need to be in a good position heading into the ACCTourney. NC State could have nearlysealed a bid last night had they not blown a 20pt second half lead @ Duke. Even with that loss they are still inposition to grab an at-large, but need a signature win as they so far have gone0-5 vs. ranked teams. Home games withFlorida State and North Carolina in their next two will give them a chance toachieve that big win – get one of those, and go 2-1 in their remaining threeand they will be well positioned.

Atlantic Sun:Belmont

Thisleague will likely be decided between Belmont and Mercer in the A-SunTourney. These two teams played earlierin the year, way earlier in the year on December 3^rd and Belmont wonby 4 on their home floor. The returntrip is the last game of the regular season, Feb. 25^th at Mercer,and a likely third meeting in the conference tournament final will be thedetermining factor.

Big 12: Kansas

Lookinggood: Missouri, Baylor, Iowa State

Needwins: Kansas State, Texas. KStatedid themselves no favors this past week blowing a double digit lead in Austin,and losing to cross-town rival Kansas on Big Monday. The Wildcats do have wins over Alabama, LongBeach State and Missouri so far which places them with a very strong profile –but a 6-7 conference record needs to be improved to improve their chances foran at-large. State needs at least a 3-2finish to their conference schedule, and maybe even 4-1 depending on how theydo in their conference tourney. Withtheir next 3 vs. teams I view as tourney teams (Baylor, Missouri, Iowa State),and the first two of those on the road, picking up a win @ Baylor or @ Missourimay be critical. The Longhorns, new tothis week’s edition, have reeled off 4 straight wins to get them in thediscussion, especially with a rising RPI of #39, even though they lack asignature win. With a favorable closingschedule, if they could finish up 4-1 that would put them at 21-10/11-7, invery good position.

Big East: Syracuse

Lookinggood: Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame

Needwins: West Virginia, UConn, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, South Florida. This Big East this season is down from whatit has recently been, but in a way that only makes it much tougher to decipherbetween these “bubble teams.” Whencomparing these 5 teams there is not much difference in their overall profiles,but there are big differences in certain aspects such as RPI, conferencerecord, and key wins. I currentlystacked them as I estimate their chances of receiving an at-large bid,including adding USF to this edition as even though they are 16-10 overall,they are 9-4 in conference play and no Big East team has even been left out ofthe dance if they have been better than .500 in conference play – even at .500there may have been a few that were left out, if that. But in the new age of unbalanced schedules,which has led to USF playing doubles vs. BE bottom-dwellers Pitt, Providenceand Villanova, definitely a .500 plus record will be needed for them to haveany shot at a bid – target 11-7, 12-6 would get them a bid in my opinion forcertain. The Big East Tournament, alwaysone of the best sporting events of the year, will be absolutely critical forall these teams – so for now we will just leave this conference as such withoutdissecting each team any more, and as the games and weeks pass hopefully we geta clearer picture of the pecking order.

Big Sky: WeberState

Likethe Atlantic Sun discussed above, the Big Sky will likely come down to a battlebetween Weber State and Montana. On Jan14^th WST took down Montana rather easily which is why they hold thecurrent bid in this edition, but the return game is on Feb 25^th@Montana, with a likely 3^rd meeting in the conference tournamentfinal to determine the automatic bid.

Big South:UNC-Asheville

Big Ten: OhioState

Lookinggood: Michigan State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana

Needwins: Purdue. What a difference aweek can make when projecting at-large spots for the Big Ten. Last week Purdue was stacked last of thethree with Illinois & Minnesota; this week they are the only remainingteam. Illinois has now lost 7 of 8, mostlikely eliminating any realistic shot they have at the big dance, and likelyputting Bruce Weber’s job on the line. Minnesota does have a nice road win @ Indiana, but currently sitting at5-8 in the conference, #65 in the RPI, and no OOC wins to speak of has likelyeliminated them from a potential at-large, of course barring any deep run inthe Big Ten Tourney. Purdue checks inthis week at 17-9/7-6, #46 RPI – all decent numbers, but not great. The Boilers are 0-6 vs. ranked teams, but dohave decent wins over Temple, Iona and Miami (FL) earlier in the season. They close the season with 3 of 5 at home, and3 of 5 vs. ranked teams – so the chances for big wins are there, the onlyquestion is can they take advantage?

Big West: LongBeach State

If LBSTdoes not win their conference tournament they would still receive a bid, thus taking one away from the currentat-large pool.

Colonial: Drexel

Needwins: VCU, George Mason. Both thesesquads continue winning games, and have impressive records, however all 3schools including VCU still have RPI’s in the 80s, which means it’s unlikelyall 3 will get an invite. VCU iscurrently 2-3 vs. Top 100 teams, including a win over USF – they will face #64RPI Northern Iowa in bracket-busters over the weekend. Drexel is 3-2 vs. Top 100 schools with winsover Princeton, VCU and George Mason. TheDragons will face fellow NCAA bubble team Cleveland State on the road inbracket-busters this weekend which will be a critical contest for the at-large chancesof both teams. Also keep in mind Drexeldid beat both VCU and George Mason in the team’s only regular season meetings(both were at home however). GeorgeMason is 2-3 vs. Top 100 squads beating Bucknell and just this week taking downVCU on a 3 at the buzzer. With all thatdata I have changed the conference champ to Drexel for now since they are 2-0vs. their competition for a bid, realizing the Colonial Tournament will beimmensely important for all involved – and if someone else was to win theconference tourney 100% not all three of these schools would receive a bid.

Conference USA:Memphis

Lookinggood: Southern Mississippi

Needwins: UCF. The Golden Knights dohave a nice OOC win over UConn, and have taken down Memphis during conferenceplay. And even with the close loss @ USMon this past Saturday their RPI jumped from #62 to #55 – more wins are needed,most likely they need to close 4-1 or better which would put them at 21-8/11-5heading into their conference tournament.

Horizon: Valparaiso

TheHorizon is traditionally a one bid conference and there isn’t any reason tothink that will change this year. WithCSU losing 3 straight they have been replaced by Valparaiso in myprojections. Valpo has now taken the lead in the conferencestandings, has risen ahead of CSU in the RPI, and has also beat CSU twice thisseason. Both squads will be a part ofthe bracket-busters games as CSU will host Drexel, while Valparaiso will travelto the West Coast for a matchup with Loyola Marymount. Can Valpo accomplish the tough task of beatingCSU for a third time in the conference tourney? Keep in mind this league is extremely competitive with not muchdifference between the top 8 teams – so the tournament is sure to be exciting,probably not winding up with a VALPO/CSU Final, and likely resulting in theonly bid offered to the Horizon.

Ivy: Harvard

If HARdoes not win their conference during the regular season (remember the IvyLeague does not have a conference tournament) they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus addingto the pool of current at-large teams. HAR lost their first Ivy League game this past weekend, and thus onlyholds a one game lead in the loss column over Yale and Penn – two teams theywill play again this year, but both are at home. Still very likely HAR wins the auto-bid fromthe Ivy.

MAAC: Iona

If IONAdoes not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool ofcurrent at-large teams.

MAC: Akron

IfAKRON does not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thusadding to the pool of current at-large teams. This week I have replaced Ohio with Akron as the Bobcats have struggledof late in conference play and have fallen 3 games behind Akron in the losscolumn. It remains very unlikely thisleague gets more than one bid, with the current crop of teams thinking at-largefrom this conference having RPI’s in the 80s at best.

MEAC: NorfolkState

Missouri Valley:Wichita State

Needwins: Creighton. The Blue Jays havefallen from a lock to be in the field to the “need wins” grouping afterdropping three straight, the last of which was a blow-out home loss to WichitaState. While the Shockers now appear tobe the class of the MVC, Creighton is still touting a #28 RPI with wins overWSU and San Diego State. This week’sbracket-buster game hosting Long Beach State is very critical to Creighton’s atlarge-prospects as a loss there could be the final death blow without a MVCTournament Title.

Mountain West:UNLV

Lookinggood: New Mexico, San Diego State

Needwins: Colorado State, Wyoming. Ifrankly do not think either of these teams has much of a shot at receiving anat-large, but I will keep them on the list for at least one more week – theloser of their matchup this weekend in Colorado Springs will be removed forcertain however. Both teams have HUGEgames this coming week besides their head to head matchup as CSU faces NewMexico at home, while Wyoming goes to San Diego State. Both teams need wins, and BIG wins in a hurryto remain in the conversation.

Northeast: LIUBrooklyn

LIUBhas grabbed my projected auto-bid from the NE based on their overtaking ofWagner in the standings, and the fact Long Island already beat Wagner twicethis season. Similar to CSU/VALPOdiscussed above, the potential third meeting could have a bid on the line – andit is tough to beat a team three times in one season.

Ohio Valley:Murray State

If MSUdoes not win their conference tournament they would still receive a bid, thus taking one away from the currentat-large pool. Murray State finally sawtheir undefeated season come to an end, but they have bounced back nicely witha pair of wins and covers – prior to these two covers they were reallystruggling ATS wise as no question the pressure of the undefeated record was impactingtheir performance. Without the pressureof a potentially undefeated season look for them to close the regular seasonand conference tournament strongly, and hope for a good seed and draw to makesome real noise come mid March.

Pac 12: California

Looking good: Arizona,Washington. The Pac 12 this season isvery similar to the Big East, minus the top teams. The top 3 teams seem to be Cal, Arizona andWashington and all appear to be in decent shape as far as receiving a bidgoes. Cal has really taken control ofthe conference in recent weeks, winning 3 straight and 8 of 10, climbing to #37in the latest RPI. Arizona also appearsto be peaking at the right time winning 5 straight and 6 of 7, likely lockingin their bid although their seeding may be lower than some expect with an RPIclose to #70. Washington may be playingthe best of the three teams right now, if that is possible seeing how well ARIand CAL are playing, as the Huskies have won 7 of 8 and 10 of 12. These teams will be spending the rest oftheir regular seasons jockeying to improve their seeding.

Needwins: Oregon, Colorado, Stanford. Thesethree teams are very close to each other as far as resume goes – a key todetermining the order of chances they have at grabbing an at-large will be theround robin they still have to play vs. each other – all 3 teams sit at 1-1right now vs. the other two. None of thethree teams has beaten Cal, but Colorado and Stanford will get another chance(OREG is 0-2 already). Both Oregon andColorado are 2-1 vs. ARI & WAS, while STAN is 0-2. But the reason STAN gets to remain on thelist is they are the only one of the three with any OOC wins to even mention,beating NC State and Colorado State earlier in the season. Look for at least one of these teams to beremoved either next edition or the one that follows.

Patriot: Bucknell

SEC: Kentucky

Lookinggood: Florida, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State

Needwins: Alabama, Ole Miss, Arkansas. Similarto the Pac 12 that has three teams in the “need wins” group, these threeschools will still play a round robin amongst themselves which will start toweed out the contenders from the pretenders. Alabama is still sitting the best of this group, and it’s almost to thepoint the other two schools will be removed. ALA has an RPI of #35, has beaten both the other schools listed here,and also picked up OOC wins over Wichita State, Purdue and VCU. Both Ole Miss and Arkansas need to closeextremely strong and play well in the SEC Tournament, which seems unlikely atthis point; but they still remain on the list with at least a shot at winningenough games to receive consideration.

Southern: Davidson

If DAVdoes not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool ofcurrent at-large teams. Davidson hostsWichita State in bracket-busters this weekend, which will be a very bigopportunity for them to bolster their resume if an at-large bid was the onlyoption.

Southland: Texas-Arlington

SWAC: MississippiValley State

Summit: OralRoberts

If ORdoes not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool ofcurrent at-large teams. OR hosts Akronat 2pm tomorrow in bracket-busters play.

Sun Belt: MiddleTennessee State

If MTSUdoes not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive abid, thus adding to the pool of current at-large teams.

West Coast: St.Mary’s

Lookinggood: Gonzaga

Thosetwo teams are near locks tobe in the field, so if anyone else was to win the conference tournament thatwould likely take away a bid from the current at-large pool.

Needwins: BYU. The Cougars continue toplay well of late including picking up an OOC win @ Virginia Tech a few weeksago. Unfortunately they were swept bySt. Mary’s this year, but they did pick up a home win over Gonzaga which willhelp their case. The Cougars were notinvited to partake in bracket-busters, so they will have to rely on St. Mary’swinning @ Murray State, and to a lesser extent Loyola Marymount taking downHorizon foe Valpo.

WAC: Nevada

If NEVdoes not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool ofcurrent at-large teams. Nevada travelsto Iona tomorrow in bracket-busters play, and that would be a very nice win forthe Wolfpack to post on their resume.

FIELD: 68

AUTOMATIC BIDS: 31

LOOKING GOOD: 25

Currently I project 56of the 68 bids areearned.

NEED WINS: 24TEAMS I LISTED FOR 12 REMAINING SPOTS

Keep in mind however that DOES NOT include the upsets we will see during ConferenceTournament week where teams that are LOCKSfrom smaller conferences lose a game in their conference tournament and hence usean at-large bid on themselves. We arelikely to see at least three of those instances, so essentially we have about 26teams jockeying for position to earn ~9 spots.

Here are the 12teams I currently believe will get a bid (in no order):

Kansas State Miami,FL

NC State Oregon

West Virginia VCU

Cincinnati UConn

Purdue Creighton

Alabama BYU

First four out:

Texas Seton Hall

UCF George Mason

MULTIPLE BID CONFERENCES:

Big East: 8 ACC: 6 Big Ten: 6 SEC: 5 A10: 3 Big12: 5 Colonial: 2 MWC: 3 Pac 12: 4 WCC: 3 MVC: 2 CUSA: 2

Differences from my bracket vs. the bracketologist himself,Mr. Joe Lunardi @ espn.com

My latestprojection: Bracketologist:

Seton Hall – first four out SetonHall – IN

Illinois – not even on list of “need wins” Illinois– IN (last four IN)

Xavier – IN Xavier– first four out

Texas – first four out Texas– IN

VCU – IN VCU– not listed

Oregon – IN Oregon– next four out

The biggest differences appear to be:

Illinois, who he hasas playing in one of the #12 seed play-in games vs. me just removing the Illinifrom consideration. Illinois has 10losses, is 5-8 in conference, has an RPI around #60, and has lost 7 of 8 games– how he can still have them in the dance I do not understand. I feel I am correct with Illinois.

VCU, who I have in the field, is not listed anywhere on thesheet of Mr. Mid-Major himself, even his top 16 bubble teams. With the three CAA teams (Drexel, VCU andGeorge Mason) all having very solid seasons in the W/L column, and the successof this league in the past as far as NCAA Tournament wins goes, I find it hardto believe two of these teams will not get an invite. I feel Joe is missing the boat here on VCU orGeorge Mason getting a bid – really comes down to my feeling 2 of those 3 willget a bid so long as one of the three wins the conference tournament – and iftwo face each other in the conference tournament final those two will get bids.

The rest of the differences were very close calls as you cansee, and with so much of the season still to play there will be lots of changesto those current projections. We canre-address down the road.

COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS, 2012

NBA Playoff Projections thru Feb 12 using my Strength of Schedule Analysis

2012-02-14T07:50:00.000-08:00

NBA Strength of Schedule Measured using Days Rest

Going into the 2011-2012 NBA campaign we all knew how toughthe schedule was going to be on every team – cramming 66 games into some 120days would make for quite a few nights for each and every team where there isjust no gas left in the tank to compete at the level needed. But what many didn’t realize is how unfairthe league’s schedule was for some teams, and how others “benefited.”

Heading into the season I came up with each teams SOS usingmy formula which entails placing 2 thru 10 games in their own buckets, testinghow many night’s teams would typically play said amount of games during aregular NBA season vs. how many night’s teams were playing those same gamesthis year, then taking the most “extreme” cases we see in this year’s scheduleand aggregating. For example, we allknow teams typically would not play back to back to back games during astandard NBA regular season – so for every instance I saw that for each teamthat counted as “1” – I did that exercise for every bucket 2 thru 10 games andcounted each instance of a team being “stressed” as “1”.

Before the season here is what the SOS looked like, in rankorder with top being toughest:

	SOS	RANK
CHA	86	1
MEM	73	2
ATL	68	3
SA	67	4
IND	64	5
DET	62	6
LAC	62	6
CHI	61	8
BOS	58	9
GS	54	10
TOR	54	10
CLE	53	12
DAL	51	13
MIA	49	14
PHO	49	14
WAS	45	16
POR	44	17
UTA	44	17
PHI	42	19
DEN	41	20
HOU	40	21
NJ	38	22
SAC	37	23
ORL	36	24
OKC	35	25
MIL	34	26
NY	34	26
MIN	33	28
LAL	32	29
NO	31	30

What does this data mean? Let’s take CHA for example as they, in my opinion, had the toughestschedule this season. The 86 representsthat amount of times I viewed their games to be “stressed” – meaning playingtoo many games in too few nights. Whatis important to remember here is I use 9 buckets – 2 games, 3 games, 4games….all the way to 10 games – and I look at each bucket to see where playingthat # of games in the corresponding # of nights is so much different thanregular seasons. So we can see a #higher than the 66 games a team is playing because some games they will be“stressed” on multiple buckets – meaning, some games will fit the back to backto back bucket, as well as a team playing 5 games in 7 nights.

What can this information tell us? Well, we all know CHA is brutal this season,having a current record of 3-24 which is the worst in the NBA and on pace to bethe worst winning % of all time for any regular season. But that is not ALL because of the toughschedule I suggest they are playing – it also has to do with their personnelobviously. BUT, we can use this datamany ways – the biggest way in my opinion is by looking at the SOS that I breakout above season to date, and comparing that to what is remaining – and if ateam has a significantly easier or tougher schedule compared to what theyalready played it could be the right time to be bullish or bearing on theseteams. Let’s take a look at the SOS #sabove broken out by what teams have played season to date, vs. what teams haveremaining:

	Wins	To Date	RANK	Remaining	RANK
CHI	23	47	1	14	28
OKC	21	19	11	16	26
MIA	21	15	17	34	12
PHI	19	27	7	15	27
SA	19	23	8	44	6
ATL	18	33	4	35	10
ORL	17	22	10	14	28
DAL	17	18	13	33	13
LAC	17	14	20	48	4
IND	17	10	25	54	2
DEN	16	29	6	12	30
HOU	16	18	13	22	15
LAL	16	14	20	18	24
POR	15	23	8	21	17
BOS	15	8	29	50	3
MEM	14	18	13	55	1
UTA	14	13	22	31	14
MIN	13	15	17	18	24
NY	13	15	17	19	22
MIL	12	13	22	21	17
PHO	12	10	25	39	9
SAC	10	16	16	21	17
CLE	10	9	28	44	6
GS	10	6	30	48	4
TOR	9	32	5	22	15
DET	8	41	3	21	17
NJ	8	19	11	19	22
WAS	6	10	25	35	10
NO	4	11	24	20	21
CHA	3	46	2	40	8

The above chart is sorted by wins thru Sunday Feb 12, withthe middle box representing season to date SOS in left column and the rank ofthat SOS in the right column, and the right box representing the same dataexcept it measures the remaining games of the season. A higher # in the SOS column means moreinstances of a team being “stressed” and is viewed as a negative factor in thisexercise.

From this chart we can see CHI has played the toughestschedule of any team in the NBA using my formula, already playing in 47 oftheir 61 “stressed” incidents on the season. Since their remaining schedule is ranked 2^nd easiest [tiedwith ORL only trailing DEN] that most likely bodes extremely well for themsolidifying their grip on the best record in the Eastern Conference, assumingDerrick Rose isn’t hampered by his bad back [which seems like a safe assumptionbased on yesterday’s MRI that revealed no bone issues, only muscle soreness] aswe move thru the season. We also see OKChas the 26^th rated SOS remaining which should allow them to continuepiling up wins and keep their stranglehold on the top spot in the WesternConference.

PHI has been one of the best stories thus far of the ’11-’12season and based on this analysis that is likely to continue as they currentlyhold a 3.5 game lead over BOS in the Atlantic division and they also hold a massiveedge as far as SOS goes: season to date PHI has played the #7 SOS, while BOSchecks in at #29; what’s more, PHI closes the season out with the 4^theasiest schedule whereas BOS has the third toughest. Taking this into account, the fact this SOSmeasures days rest, and BOS is a veteran team that is much more likely to beimpacted by playing more games in fewer nights and it seems PHI will win theirfirst division title since the 2000-2001 season when Allen Iverson led them toan NBA Finals appearance. Can the Knicksmake a run to the playoffs? That is theother key question in the Atlantic division as a season full of big dreams inNovember has only turned into a big time disappointment thru about 40% of theirschedule. NY had the 4^theasiest schedule heading into the season so days rest was not going to be acritical factor in their success, and looking at the season to date andremaining schedule data the same story really holds true. Key to their season seems to be hinging onnew PG Jeremy Lin – whom we have all heard too much about in the past 7 days sohe will get no press here – and getting Carmelo Anthony & Amare Stoudemireboth playing at a high level and driving the team to play with more cohesion,and intensity on the defensive end of the floor.

CHI will win the Central division, but the Pacers havedesigns on being a factor when May rolls around. IND has clearly been one of the surpriseteams so far, but a closer look at these SOS figures may tell a critical story– IND has only been “stressed” 10 instances so far this season, one of thelowest/easiest in the league, while their remaining schedule has a whopping 54instances which only trails MEM for toughest in the league. I do think the Pacers have some nice piecesin place, but we may see them falter some and I certainly expect their winning% to drop below the .630 mark, where it currently sits. At the end of the regular season theirseeding in the playoffs will likely wind up close to where they are sitting now- #5/#6.

In the Southeast MIA will win that division regardless ofany type of analysis that may show any obstacles they have to overcome – theyare just too talented, too hungry, and the rest of that division just cannot betrusted [yes ORL and ATL that means you]. Comparing ORL and ATL for 2^nd place as far as SOS goes is nocomparison – ATL was ranked 4^th toughest heading into season, whileORL was 7^th easiest – currently, ORL still holds a big edge inenjoying many more days rest between games vs. ATL. The two teams are virtually tied currently; Igive ATL the talent edge, and who knows when/if ORL is going to deal DwightHoward – they probably should deal him as it appears a safe bet he is walkingafter this season – so I give ATL the edge even playing the tougher schedule.

Projected EasternConference Playoff Seeds – as of 02/12:

Chicago
Miami
Philadelphia
Atlanta
Orlando
Boston
Indiana
New York

In the Northwest division OKC leads the way, and has thebest mark in the NBA. There was a lot ofhype on the Thunder heading into this season as potential NBA Championshipmaterial, and to this point they have lived up to it. Heading into the season they had one of theeasier schedules, and the same holds true for their remaining slate as I rankit #26 – plenty of rest between now and the playoffs for this young team. With the way this season is shaping up, andthe mostly veteran teams in the Western Conference, it seems OKC will onlyextend its grasp on the top seed come May. This division is stacked however, probably the best in the NBA with 4 ofthe 5 teams over .500, and MIN certainly no slouch in their own right. I think it’s at least one year too early forthe Wolves to make a move into the playoffs, but the other three teams will bein the mix. DEN appears to be in thebest shape as they currently sit in 2^nd place, and have accomplishedthat playing the 6^th toughest schedule to date – they close with themost days rest of any team in the NBA. As long as Gallinari and Nene do not miss extended action due to theirlingering injuries, the Nuggets are a lock to make the playoffs and potentiallyhave home-court in a first round matchup. POR has played the 8^th toughest schedule to date, and has amiddle pack schedule remaining while UTA has played one of the easier schedulesso far, and also has a middle of the pack schedule remaining. With POR being the more talented andexperienced club, and already ahead of UTA in the standings, POR has to befavored to finish above UTA come the end of the regular season.

The upstart LAC lead the Pacific division, which has beenruled by the Lakers of late, and the Suns before that for nearly a decade. The season ending injury to Chauncey Billupswill definitely hurt, especially down the stretch executing in close games, butthere is still enough talent there led by the 1-2 punch of Paul and Griffin tolikely win that division – even considering their tough closing schedule rated#4. Their neighbors, the Lakers, are theonly other team in the Pacific with a chance at making the playoffs – and restis a big factor in their success with all the veterans they have in theirrotation. Heading into the year theLakers had the second easiest schedule, and still close with #24 – so they willclearly have enough rest down the stretch to be a factor come May.

In the Southwest division the Spurs and Mavericks lead theway, with HOU and MEM also having designs on making the playoffs. The Spurs, who had the best record in theWestern Conference last regular season before losing to MEM in the first round,are putting together another solid campaign even enduring the loss of ManuGinoboli for the better part of 20 games. With Manu back, and Tony Parker playing at a high level, they have thepersonnel to solidify a playoff berth – but the schedule is a HUGE issue rightnow for their potential seeding as they face the 6^th toughestschedule down the stretch. I feel themore into the season we get, the more this lack of rest will catch up with thisteam. The defending champ Mavericks arepositioned nicely after a slow start to their campaign, and have an easierschedule down the stretch than the Spurs. As long as most of their key parts play a majority of their games theywill likely take over the top spot from the Spurs, and grab either the #2 or #3seed. HOU has a couple game lead on MEM for3^rd place in this division, and they also have a BIG schedule edgedown the stretch as the Rockets face the #15 SOS, while the Grizzlies face thetoughest. The Grizzlies do expect to geta key piece back shortly in Zach Randolph, but with that still likely a fewweeks away it may be too little too late this year for MEM. These two clubs, along with potentially UTAwill battle it out for the last playoff spot, and likely matchup with OKC inRound 1.

Projected WesternConference Playoff Seeds – as of 02/12:

Oklahoma City
Dallas
LA Clippers
San Antonio
Denver
LA Lakers
Portland
Houston

Quick take on some of my projected first round matchups,here are the top 3:

WC #3 LA Clippersvs. #6 LA Lakers: wow, how great would this be? I did not just set this up because it wouldbe great; this is the true projection of where I see the teams winding up. DAL and the LAC will likely be in a tusslefor the #2 seed, but I give the edge to the Mavericks with their championshippedigree, and because the Clippers lost their go-to-guy Billups. We have already seen some nastiness betweenthese two clubs during the regular season which would only be ultra-hyped ifthey were to meet in the playoffs. Let’skeep our fingers crossed this matchup occurs!

EC #1 Chicago vs.#8 New York: just last year we saw an 8 seed take down a 1 seed when MEMeasily dispatched SA– could it happen again just one year later? No question NY would be a dangerous team foranyone to face in the first round from a simple star standpoint, with CarmeloAnthony and Amare Stoudemire leading the way. But defense and PG play will be a critical issue for the Knicks hopes ofpulling an upset.

EC #3 Philadelphiavs. #6 Boston: the Sixers and their blue collar attitude would absolutelyrelish the opportunity to play their division rival BOS in the first round ofthe playoffs, that would be for certain. And I think the C’s would also look forward to that if PHI does indeedwin the Atlantic – which would be the first time since 2007 BOS didn’t. I would expect a real slugfest with lots oftight, low scoring, intense games that would likely last 6/7. COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS 2012

2012 NCAA Tournament- Projected Field Updated Thru 2/9

2012-02-10T06:44:00.000-08:00

2012 NCAA Tournament – Projected Field – UPDATED THRU 2/9 GAMES

As we currently sit about midway through the conferenceschedule, let’s take our first look at the projected field for this year’s NCAATournament. I will breakdown eachconference and the team’s who I view as a “lock” right now, who are likely todance, and who are still alive but need to do some work (obviously any teamthat wins their conference tournament gets a bid, but in this last bucket I amonly including team’s whose record/RPI could still get them an at-large bid ifthey play well down the stretch). Teamsare also listed in the order I view their seeding or chances of receiving abid.

America East:Stony Brook

Atlantic Ten:Temple

Lookinggood: Xavier, St. Louis

Needwins: UMass, LaSalle. LaSalle took apair of tough road losses by a combined 6pts to non-tourney teams which knockedthem down a peg. They still sit OK, butit’s unlikely the A10 will get more than 4 bids (and 4 is not guaranteed withthe RPI’s of UMass #66 & LaSalle #76) – and with 3 locked in they arebattling with UMass for the possible last spot.

ACC: NorthCarolina

Lookinggood: Duke, Florida State, Virginia

Needwins: Miami (FL), NC State. Miamipicked up a resume building win @ Duke this past weekend which really increasestheir chances of picking up a bid, especially with them closing the season with5 of 8 @ home. NC State is still inposition to win and get in, but currently sit at 0-4 vs. ranked teams thisseason (not helping their case) – they have 3 more games vs. team’s currentlyranked, two at home and likely need a win in one of those three to seal a bid.

Atlantic Sun:Belmont

Big 12: Kansas

Lookinggood: Missouri, Baylor, Iowa State

Needwins: Kansas State. KState has winsover Alabama, Long Beach State and Missouri so far which places them with avery strong profile. But sitting at 6-5in Big 12 means more wins are needed to secure a bid – they still face the “big3” in conference play back to back to back starting on Big Monday hostingKansas. At least one win in those 3 Ifeel is needed.

Big East: Syracuse

Lookinggood: Marquette, Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame

Needwins: West Virginia, UConn, Cincinnati, Seton Hall. Notre Dame moved up to “looking good” afterpicking up wins over Marquette and @ West Virginia. Record wise Cincinnati sits best of thisgroup however their RPI of #97 is terrible and probably means a 10-8 minimumrecord in Big East with a few quality wins is necessary. Cincy does face a relatively easy scheduledown the stretch with only 3 games vs. teams that could be dancing: a pair vs.Marquette and hosting Louisville. SetonHall only remains on the list because of their strong RPI that currently sitsat #32 – like Cincinnati they too have an easy schedule down the stretch onlyfacing two teams with NCAA Tourney chances: @ Cincinnati and hostingGeorgetown. Need at least 4-2 downstretch, possibly 5-1 and some success in BET to get their first bid since2006.

Big Sky: WeberState

Big South:UNC-Asheville

Big Ten: OhioState

Lookinggood: Michigan State, Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin

Needwins: Illinois, Minnesota, Purdue. Illinois has lost 4 of 5, but they have beaten Michigan State, OhioState and Gonzaga on season – so they have the signature wins which has bolsteredtheir RPI to #33, but need more wins and to break out of their current funk asthe season winds down. Minnesota has nobig wins to hang their hat on but will have plenty of chances down the stretchto change that facing Wisconsin, Indiana (whom they already beat), Ohio Stateand Michigan State – with 3 of those 4 games at home. Purdue currently appears to be the longestshot in this conference (almost were removed this edition) having lost 2straight, 4 of 5, 5 of 7 and 6 of 8. They also have gone 0-6 vs. ranked teams so far, with their only key OOCwins coming over Miami (FL) & Temple. With an RPI of #60 currently they most likely need to close regularseason 5-2 and win a game or two in their conference tourney.

Big West: LongBeach State

If LBSTdoes not win their conference tournament they would still receive a bid, thus taking one away from the currentat-large pool.

Colonial: VCU

Needwins: Drexel, George Mason

Conference USA:Memphis

Lookinggood: Southern Mississippi

Needwins: UCF. The Golden Knights dohave a very nice OOC win over UConn, and have taken down Memphis during conference play, but need to keepwinning as their RPI sits at #62, and they are clearly third in the CUSApecking order. A win @ USM on Saturdaywould really help their cause.

Horizon: ClevelandState

If CSUdoes not win their conference tournament they would still receive a bid, thus taking one away from the currentat-large pool.

Ivy: Harvard

If HARdoes not win their conference during regular season (remember the Ivy Leaguedoes not have a conference tournament) they would still receive a bid, thus taking one away from the currentat-large pool.

MAAC: Iona

If IONAdoes not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool ofcurrent at-large teams.

MAC: Ohio

If OHIOdoes not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool ofcurrent at-large teams.

Needwins: Akron. The Zips sit at #62 inthe RPI ratings, and have an OOC win over Mississippi State in November, butthey will need to continue winning to have a shot at an at-large bid comeSelection Sunday.

MEAC: NorfolkState

Missouri Valley:Wichita State

Lookinggood: Creighton

Thosetwo teams are locks to be inthe field, so if anyone else was to win the conference tournament that wouldtake away a bid from the current at-large pool.

Mountain West:UNLV

Lookinggood: San Diego State, New Mexico

Needwins: Colorado State, Wyoming. CSUhas a very strong RPI at #30 which bodes well for their chances of aninvite. Wyoming is added for thisversion based on their win over UNLV this past weekend. With an RPI in the 60s and no key OOC winsthey still have a lot of work to do, but sitting at 18-5 they are still alive.

Northeast: Wagner

If WAGdoes not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool ofcurrent at-large teams.

Ohio Valley:Murray State

If MSUdoes not win their conference tournament they would still receive a bid, thus taking one away from the currentat-large pool.

Pac 12: Arizona

Looking good: California

Needwins: Washington, Colorado, Oregon, Stanford. The Pac 12 as a whole is extremely bunched upwith not much difference between the six teams I list here. The close to the regular season will be veryimportant, as will the Pac 12 Tournament. Still too tough to call, but it feels like this league will get anywherebetween 2-4 bids depending on how the season plays out.

Patriot: Bucknell

SEC: Kentucky

Lookinggood: Florida, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State

Needwins: Alabama, Ole Miss, Arkansas. Alabama is sitting best of this group of three with an RPI of #29 and a16-7 record. But the Tide still hasn’tpicked up a signature win, and lost to Georgetown and Kansas State in OOCplay. Ole Miss also has no truesignature wins although they did beat Mississippi State and Miami (FL), butlosses to Marquette, Southern Miss, Middle Tennessee and Dayton isn’t helpingtheir case. Arkansas is now 0-7 on roadafter a bad loss to Georgia and is now on the fringes of being left out of thenext edition

Southern: Davidson

If DAVdoes not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool ofcurrent at-large teams.

Southland: Texas-Arlington

SWAC: MississippiValley State

Summit: OralRoberts

If ORdoes not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool ofcurrent at-large teams.

Sun Belt: MiddleTennessee State

If MTSUdoes not win their conference tournament they would still receive a bid, thus taking one away from the currentat-large pool.

West Coast: St.Mary’s

Lookinggood: Gonzaga

Thosetwo teams are locks to be inthe field, so if anyone else was to win the conference tournament that wouldtake away a bid from the current at-large pool.

Needwins: BYU

WAC: Nevada

If NEVdoes not win their conference tournament they would still be alive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool ofcurrent at-large teams.

FIELD: 68

AUTOMATIC BIDS: 31

LOOKING GOOD: 25

Currently I project 56of the 68 bids areearned.

NEED WINS: 26TEAMS I LISTED FOR 12 REMAINING SPOTS

Here are the 12teams I currently believe will get a bid (in no order):

UMass Miami,FL

NC State KansasState

Illinois Drexel

Cincinnati UConn

Akron Washington

Alabama BYU

First four out:

Colorado State GeorgeMason

West Virginia Oregon

2012 NCAA Tournment - Projected Field

2012-02-03T09:46:00.000-08:00

2012 NCAA Tournament – Projected Field

As we currently sit about midway through the conferenceschedule, let’s take our first look at the projected field for this year’s NCAATournament. I will breakdown eachconference and the team’s who I view as a “lock” right now, who are likely todance, and who are still alive but need to do some work (obviously any teamthat wins their conference tournament gets a bid, but in this last bucket I amonly including team’s whose record could still get them an at-large bid if theyplay well down the stretch).

America East:Stony Brook

Atlantic Ten:Temple

Lookinggood: LaSalle, Xavier, St. Louis

Needwins: UMass, Dayton, St. Joseph’s (PA)

ACC: NorthCarolina

Lookinggood: Duke, Florida State, Virginia

Needwins: NC State, Miami (FL)

Atlantic Sun:Belmont

Big 12: Baylor

Lookinggood: Missouri, Kansas, Iowa State

Needwins: Kansas State

Big East: Syracuse

Lookinggood: Marquette, Georgetown, Louisville

Needwins: West Virginia, UConn, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Seton Hall

Big Sky: WeberState

Big South:UNC-Asheville

Big Ten: OhioState

Lookinggood: Michigan State, Michigan, Indiana, Wisconsin

Needwins: Illinois, Minnesota, Purdue

Big West: LongBeach State

If LBST does not win theirconference tournament they would still receivea bid, thus taking one away from thecurrent at-large pool.

Colonial: VCU

Needwins: Drexel, George Mason

Conference USA:Memphis

Lookinggood: Southern Mississippi

Needwins: UCF

Horizon: ClevelandState

If CSU does not win their conferencetournament they would still receivea bid, thus taking one away from the current at-large pool.

Ivy: Harvard

If HAR does not win theirconference during regular season (remember the Ivy League does not have aconference tournament) they would still receivea bid, thus taking one away from the current at-large pool.

MAAC: Iona

If IONA does not win theirconference tournament they would still bealive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of current at-largeteams.

MAC: Ohio

If OHIO does not win theirconference tournament they would still bealive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of current at-largeteams.

Needwins: Akron

MEAC: NorfolkState

Missouri Valley:Wichita State

Lookinggood: Creighton

Those two teams are locks to be in the field, so ifanyone else was to win the conference tournament that would take away a bidfrom the current at-large pool.

Mountain West:UNLV

Lookinggood: San Diego State, New Mexico

Needwins: Colorado State

Northeast: Wagner

If WAG does not win theirconference tournament they would still bealive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of current at-largeteams.

Ohio Valley:Murray State

If MSU does not win theirconference tournament they would still receivea bid, thus taking one away from the current at-large pool.

Pac 12: Arizona

Needwins: Washington, Stanford, California, Oregon, Colorado

Patriot: Bucknell

SEC: Kentucky

Lookinggood: Florida, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State

Needwins: Alabama, Arkansas, Ole Miss

Southern: Davidson

If DAV does not win theirconference tournament they would still bealive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of current at-largeteams.

Southland: Texas-Arlington

SWAC: MississippiValley State

Summit: OralRoberts

If OR does not win their conferencetournament they would still be aliveto receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of current at-large teams.

Sun Belt: MiddleTennessee State

If MTSU does not win theirconference tournament they would still receivea bid, thus taking one away from the current at-large pool.

West Coast: St.Mary’s

Lookinggood: Gonzaga

Those two teams are locks to be in the field, so ifanyone else was to win the conference tournament that would take away a bidfrom the current at-large pool.

Needwins: BYU

WAC: Nevada

If NEV does not win theirconference tournament they would still bealive to receive a bid, thus adding to the pool of current at-largeteams.

FIELD: 68

AUTOMATIC BIDS: 31

LOOKING GOOD: 24

Currently I project 55of the 68 bids areearned.

NEED WINS: 28TEAMS I LISTED FOR 13 REMAINING SPOTS

New England Patriots Defense

2012-01-31T14:32:00.000-08:00

Is the New England Patriots defense really the 2^nd worstin the NFL?

By now we have all read and heard about the Patriots and whatthe media continually touts as the 31^st ranked defense, only bestingthe Packers this season. But what doesthat ranking truly mean? Is it really anindicator of a porous defense?

To truly measure the positive or negative impact of adefensive unit one needs to analyze much more than purely yards allowed, asthere are so many factors that can go into driving that metric it isessentially almost useless. How elsecould you consider the fact GB & NE were the two worst performers in thatstat all season, yet they somehow went a combined 28-4 SU in the regular season(RS)? It makes ABSOLUTELY ZERO SENSE touse yards allowed as ANY KIND OF INDICATOR of defensive performance.

Instead, what is a useful exercise is to take a closer lookat many more stats, and for today that means the 16 stats I track on a game bygame basis to dig deeper and see if that statement is true, and also look atwhich areas NE is productive vs. where they struggle.

As a quick background and reminder, I track 16 differentstats on a game by game basis for my main “performance” model which gives me avery solid feel for how productive teams are, and more importantly how team’smatch up with each other. Over thecourse of the last 6 months there are many posts in this blog discussing thisperformance model if you are interested.

But back to the point at hand - on the season I have ratedthe Patriots defense #29, only ahead of #30 BUF, #31 IND & #32 TB. GB, which checks in at #32 in yards allowed,is rated #27 in my model – two notches above NE. Anyway you want to slice and dice it, thePatriots statistically speaking did not play well defensively this season. But is it truly as bad as the mediasuggests? Where specifically are their weaknessesthat NYG may be able to take advantage of, or where are their strengths (if any– the media would have you believe there are none) where NYG may struggle – andmost importantly, how do the two teams match up on this side of the ball? All stats and rankings below include only RSgames.

Rushing defense:

Yards per rush - #26
Yards rushing - #15
First downs rushing - #19
First downs rushing as a % of total carries - #24

Rushing defensesynopsis: together these four rankings equal the #20 rushing defense inthe NFL. However, that ranking cannot belooked at on a standalone basis – why you may ask? What also needs to be included to get a trulyaccurate picture is strength of schedule (SOS) – that is very critical whenanalyzing any stats in the NFL. In thisexample NE played the #13 SOS vs. rushing offenses – what that means is for all16 RS opponents they have played it aggregates to the 13^th toughestschedule (so in this example what that basically means is they have played aschedule of rushing offenses about average because 16 would be themiddle/average). If that was #1 thatwould mean they played the toughest schedule in the NFL as far as opponent rushingoffenses goes. Of the 12 teams thatplayed a tougher schedule vs. rushing offenses 7 of them performed better thanNE – so roughly half, not bad but not great. We can also make a few more solid judgments on their rushing defenselooking at it on a stat by stat basis:

While their yards rushing was #15, or middle of the pack, their yards per rush was #26 – poor. Here is a perfect spot where if you understand the entire stat package you can make strong conclusions as far as their true rushing defense performance – what that relationship is telling us is teams had a lot of success when they attempted to rush, but more times than not they apparently did not have as many attempts as they probably would have liked to boost that total yards rushing figure up. We can see a clear relationship here if we look at passing attempts – NE faced the 4^th most passing attempts in the NFL – a clear sign teams were often behind and needed to score to keep pace with the potent Patriots offense, and the fact NE scored a lot of points (#3 in NFL) – or passed the ball more than they rushed it. That is why we do not see as many yards rushing compared to yards per rushing attempt.
We will often see a correlation between yards per rush and first downs rushing as a % of total carries – why you ask? If you think about it, teams were successful on NE rushing the ball when they wanted to – so for that reason we see when teams tried to rush for first downs in short to medium yardage situations they were often successful.

Overall I would not consider their rushing defense poor whentaking into account the entire season, but when you look at the way it wastrending it tells a different, and definitely worse story: over their first 7games they only allowed one team to rush for 100+ yards - @ OAK in Wk4 (averagefor the 7 games was 101 yards rushing but most of that is driven by the 160allowed @ OAK – remove that game and over the 6 they only allowed 91yds/game). Howeverover their last 9 games in the RS they allowed 7 teams to rush for 100+,andyielded an average of 129yds/game. Sowhile the #’s do not show a disaster as far as rushing defense goes, itcertainly was only average at best over the course of the entire season, andwas trending downwards towards poor as far as production is measured over the lasthalf of the RS.

Passing defense:

Yards per pass attempt - #29
Completion % - #17
Passing yards - #32
Sacks - #14
Interceptions - #3
Passing TD’s - #26
QB Rating - #20

Passing defensesynopsis: those 7 rankings together equaled the #25 passing defense inthe NFL. Taking into account an SOS of19, and it all equals a below average pass defense unit for sure. As we can see from the rankings above thesuccess of the NE pass defense relied a lot on the big play, whether it be the#3 ranked team for creating interceptions, or the #14 team creating sacks. But a closer look at these high level assumptionsmay lead to another viewpoint on these metrics: taking into account thePatriots faced the 4^th most pass attempts in the NFL, their sacks/attemptand INT/attempt metrics are not as robust – sacks/attempt of 0.0645 is #20 inthe NFL, while INT/attempt of 0.0371 is #7 in the NFL. A small adjustment to be made, butnevertheless, another warning sign that even the metrics NE appears to be solidin may not be as good as most media pundits will lead you to believe. Clearly some of the passing yards that slotsthem last in the NFL is driven by the fact NE was #3 in scoring offense, whichgives their opponents both more possessions, and an increased chance they willface more passes (which we do see in the attempts point mentioned above) – butstill, their yards per pass attempt ranking of #29 is extremely poor,especially considering the # of pass attempts they faced. Here are the teams that faced more passesthan the Patriots this season:

GB: faced a lot of pass attempts because of the same reasons NE did – typically GB had a nice lead, and the other team was forced to play catch-up. They were ranked #30 in yards per pass attempt defensively which eventually caught up to them when they allowed Eli Manning to pass for 325 yards on 9.8 yards per pass attempt in the Divisional Round of the playoffs.
CHI: this team may be an “outsider” of sorts being this high up, especially for a non-playoff team – but what was driving this figure was CHI’s #6 ranked rushing defense, vs. the #6 SOS of rushing offenses. Basically, it was very tough to run the ball on the Bears, so teams were forced to pass. In addition, their schedule was full of some of the best QB’s in the NFL: Rodgers twice, Stafford twice, Brees, Ryan, Rivers, Newton – half of their games were vs. those 6 QB’s. They were ranked #18 in yards per pass attempt defensively – extremely solid especially considering they faced the #3 schedule vs. passing offenses – a big reason they started the season 7-3 before Cutler went down.
NO: same reasons as NE & GB. They were ranked #13 in yards per pass attempt defensively.

As we can see outside GB the other two teams who faced morepasses than NE performed significantly better in yards per pass attempt - anotherred flag. Overall their passing metricsleave a lot to be desired as if they are not creating turnovers via theinterception they are extremely susceptible to their opponents passing game, aswe saw in the AFC Championship Game where Flacco had one of his better games ofthe season passing for his most yards since Wk8, and third most all season.

Miscellaneousdefense:

First Downs - #31
Yards per play - #30
3^rd and 4^th down conversion % - #30
TO Margin - #3
Time of Possession - #24

Miscellaneousdefense synopsis: first off as an FYI, the last two stats can beattributed to both offense and defense, so because of that I give both theiroffense and defense half of their total performance grade in those stats so asto not count them twice, and evenly allocate to both sides of the ball. As we see these #s sans turnover margin aredownright brutal; perhaps the two biggest statistical indicators (yards perplay and conversion %) NE ranked #30 –that is driving the perception around theleague about how bad their defensive unit is. For SOS impact on these figures I typically look at two measures: one isthe actual SOS for these stats which is #24, and overall SOS for opponent’s offensewhich is #22. Not much else to say butwow, these #s are just downright terrible again sans turnover margin,especially because it can be argued a few of these indicators are the biggestprognosticator of either success of failure.

But alas, the one figure that stands out in a positivemanner is a big one – and that is TO margin. Again and again turnovers are key indicators for team success in theNFL. This season, of the top 10 TOmargin teams in the NFL, only two did not make the playoffs: SEA and DAL. NE checked in @ #3, a robust +17 on theseason. What’s more, the Patriots wereplus in the TO margin 11 of 16 games; toss in another game where it was 0, and75% of the games this season they didn’t lose that battle. New England has an extremely high correlationbetween SU & ATS records vs. TO margin. Let’s take a closer look at the last 3 seasons:

2011: 13-3 RS record. Negative TO margin 4 games. Records 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS. The only game all season where they won the TO margin but lost the game SU was @ PIT in Wk8. One of the negative games was against NYG in a Wk9 loss.
2010: 14-2 RS record. TO margin +28, ranking #1 in the NFL. Negative TO margin 3 games. Records 1-2 SU & ATS – remember, they only lost two games all year!
2009: 10-6 RS record. Negative TO margin 5 games. Records 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS in those games!

Amazing, combining the last two season, NE has gone 27-5during the RS – coincidentally they lost the TO margin 7 times which includesevery loss they have suffered, and they went 2-5 ATS in those games. Combining last 3 seasons they have gone 37-11during RS – lost TO margin 12 games, and went 5-7 SU and 3-9 ATS!

How does NewEngland keep winning with this defense?

NE’s offense is their best defense. Plain and simple. The fact they average scoring 32 points per game is by itself going to make it difficult for teams to beat them if they achieve that average in any given game.
Because NE often goes up early, and scores a lot of points, teams are forced to abandon their running game and pass the ball often times more than they are comfortable with. As we saw teams are effective in the yards per rush metric which shows success via the ground is attainable – the whole key is how long will NE’s offense allow a team to stick with that game plan?
Turnovers – NE is consistently at the top of the league in this metric, and this is one of the top two best at projecting winning and losing games.

What should theGiants do to best enhance their chances of having success on offense, andwinning this game?

Run, run, run, and keep running some more. In the prior meeting between these teams in Wk9 which the Giants won at Gillette 24-20 they rushed for 111 yards, their 3^rd highest total of the season. NYG rushed for 100+ yards in 8 games this season, and coincidentally went 7-1 SU in those games (keep in mind their RS record was only 9-7), and a whopping 7-0-1 ATS! During the Giants mid season slump when they went 0-4 SU in Wks 10-13 they only averaged 74 yards per game on the ground; when they closed the RS with 3 wins in 4 games they rushed for 91+ in each, and averaged 106 yards per game. That’s a big difference, and a big reason the G-Men stepped up, won the NFC East, and now find themselves in the Super Bowl. Have to keep it going on the ground.
Look for the big play through the air. We see from above it isn’t very easy to complete short yardage passes and attempt to move the chains via the short passing game vs. NE as they are #17 in completion % allowed. However as discussed above they allow a ton of yards thru the air, and also allow a ton of yards per attempt – both those are a recipe for allowing a lot of long yardage completions. Eli Manning has to continue looking for Cruz, Manningham and Nicks down the field for big chunk yardage plays.
Hold onto the ball, and pressure Brady into mistakes. First, Eli Manning must avoid the INT, something he has had problems with in the past, and just this season ranking #20 in NFL throwing INT’s. Manning only had 5 games all season where he did not throw an INT, and in those 5 games the Giants went 5-0 SU / 3-1-1 ATS. Taking care of the ball is the first phase. Next, the Giants must continue pressuring the QB, something they have done as well as anyone in football this season. NYG check in @ #3 in sacks, while NE is #10 at allowing sacks – kind of strength vs. strength here, and this is an area the Giants have to win. Hopefully for the NYG that pressure will directly force bad decisions from Brady, and allow the #7 defensive unit in INT’s to pick off a few. INT’s thrown by Brady and win/loss for NE is directly correlated as Brady threw 2 or more INT’s three times this season, and NE was 1-2 SU / 0-3 ATS in those games including the prior matchup with NYG.

Conclusion:we know from examining all the buckets in this analysis that many of the keyindicators do not show well for NE. Thatis a fact, and even though the #31 yards allowed defensive ranking the mediatouts a lot is a TERRIBLE way to judge performance, in this case it works outbecause even looking at this more granular, NE still has a well below averagedefensive unit. However, in the biggeststat of them all, points allowed, NE is ranked #15 – and accomplishing that vs.the #22 opponent offense SOS would slidethem in just below average. Combine thatwith the fact Hall of Famer Tom Brady is their QB leading an offense that averages32.1 points per game, that Hall of Famer Bill Belichick is their HC, and thefact they continue to generate a very favorable TO margin, and we can see whythe Patriots continue their winning ways even with sporting a defense that mostteams in the NFL would be picking in the top ten on draft day with. COPYRIGHT: THE SPORTSBOSS 2012

Divisional Round Playoff Preview

2012-01-12T13:19:00.000-08:00

Divisional Round Playoff Preview

New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco Forty-Niners

Saturday January 14, 2012 – 430pm EDT

For the first time ever I am going to publicly handicap thisgame using all the tools I analyze on a weekly basis to give everyone not onlya feel for my style and the numbers I use, but also to give everyone a detailedbreakdown of each of these teams that can hopefully be used to assist in yourpersonal handicapping of this game. Iwill lay out by # each model, database, or piece of information I utilize,provide some details behind each, and also cover some high level trends andhistorical items I may use when breaking NFL games down.

1. UNITS BREAKDOWN: in thisdatabase I breakdown each team’s offense and defense into four buckets: rushing,passing, miscellaneous and overall. Iuse 4 stats for rushing, 7 stats for passing, 5 stats for miscellaneous (theseare stats that cannot directly be related to either rushing or passing such asfirst downs, time of possession, etc…), and the combination of all 16 stats fortotal offense and defense. In additionto looking at the stats I look at specific SOS categories for each bucket – meaningI break down each team’s opponent’s strength in each of these 3 areas bythemselves, and in total. In this gamewe have a classic offense vs. defense matchup as the Saints come in with the #1offense while SF has the #2 defense – and both attained those rankings vs. #31schedules (SF faced the 2^nd easiest schedule vs. offenses while NOfaced the 2^nd easiest schedule of defenses on the entire season). Not only is that virtually even, the bucketsare also almost identical – the only area with > 3 spot variance is theSaints rushing offense that is ranked #7 vs. the Niners rushing defense that isranked #1 – both vs. the #32 schedule. On the other side of the ball SF has an edge as they check in at #16offensively vs. #9 SOS, while NO’s defense is ranked #24 vs. #18 SOS. Ranking wise the dispersion is almost equalacross all 3 buckets, but the largest SF edge comes in rushing where they are#15/#7 SOS, while NO is #23/#20 SOS. Edge: San Francisco driven by their rushing attack.

2. STAT RANKINGS: in this databaseI take where each team’s rank in the statistical categories I track and compareoffense to the opponent’s defense for both teams – I sum up the edges for eachteam and whoever is plus has an advantage. Basically, this is just a more granular version of the Units breakdownand it allows me to focus on specific stats and areas that are driving anadvantage for one team or another. Thisdatabase has a very small SF edge mostly due to a slightly tougher SOS as thetwo teams are nearly identical in total rankings. One key number that stands out in this modelhowever is the TO margin – SF led the league at +28 on the season, while NOchecked in at -3. Edge: San Franciscovery small driven by SOS and TO Margin.

3. REGRESSION: in this model Iback-tested 10 years of data on every NFL regular season game that was played, usingthe 16 stats I track game by game, and compared those using Excel to a team’spoints scored. Excel responded with aformula that estimates the approximate weighting each stat has on points scored– I then take an average of each team’s offense vs. the opponents defense andvice versa, apply that forecasted amount for each stat by its correspondingweighting, and sum each team’s points up for a projected margin ofvictory. Using this model for this gameSF is estimated to win by approximately 0.5 to 1 point. Edge: San Francisco very small driven by TOmargin.

4. PERFORMANCE RATINGS: anyone thatstops by this blog regularly, or reads the Chad Millman column on www.espn.com knows I refer to this model I builton a weekly basis as the projections this feeds me more times than not lead meto picking the right side of a game – which I just realized around Thanksgiving. As a reminder, this model grades team’s gameby game on a scale of 0-160 – there are 160 points per game, so if a teamscores 81 they “won” the game according to these ratings. What’s more, teams that do score 81 or abovein this model cover the line 73% of the time – yes, all that needs to be doneis project who wins in these ratings and you will win cash 73% of thetime. This model will be a major focusof mine over the summer as baseball season will be a pass for me in order toprepare for football season – starting right here with this model. I have 3 versions of this model, one usesfull season stats, one uses home/away splits, and one uses last three games –for each stat I use I project each team’s performance (i.e. 175 rushing yards),which then gets “graded” based on data over the last ten seasons (i.e. 175rushing yards = 5 out of a possible 5 points). Then I sum each team’s offense and defense performance ratings and thatfigure has been a big piece of my handicapping over the last third of theseason – not coincidentally I have not lost one week since realizing thecorrelation between this model and ATS performance (it would make sense for thereto be high correlation with this model and SU performance as obviously thebetter a team does statistically, the better they will grade out, and thus themore likely they are to win a game SU). Without divulging the exact ratings this model provides me on this game,I can state NO has the edge in the full season stats and last three gamesversions; while SF has the edge in the H/A splits version. In addition to my performance ratings I alsobreak out pts scored vs. pts against for each team’s offense vs. defense in therespective groupings named above, and doing that yields NO -1.8pts using fullseason data, SF -7pts using home/away splits, and NO -8.8pts using last 3games. So at a high level this model isreally providing mixed signals as NO is favored in 2 of the 3 in both performanceratings and points scored/against versions. But since it is not absolute, more analysis is needed looking at theprojections for each stat – which will remain for my eyes only. Edge: New Orleans driven by having a favorablerating grade in 2 of 3 models.

5. HOME/AWAY GRADES: here I takethe average of each team’s offense vs. the opponent’s defense rating (sameratings from pt4), and vice versa, and add the variances up to see who has theedge. Applying to this game the NOoffense vs. the SF defense is a dead even wash-out; but the SF offense checksin at 45.1 in their home games while the NO defense’s average rating in roadgames was 36.8. What is interesting hereis although SF has an advantage breaking the numbers down as such, SF was rated#5 in home game performance this season vs. the #14 SOS, while NO was rated #3in road game performance vs. the #16 SOS. When looking at that a little closer, both the SF defense and the NO offenseaveraged over 50 rating points per game, which is extremely high. Taking a look at the correlation/relationshipbetween performance ratings and points scored it would appear although SF andNO both averaged scoring the same amount of points at home and on roadrespectively, SF performed a lot worse than NO – suggesting some of SF’s pointsscored were “lucky” and “opportunistic” driven by their strong defense oftengiving them short fields to work with. Edge:San Francisco driven by both their high offense rating and the NO low defenserating.

6. POWER RATINGS: in my personalregular season power ratings this game features #1 New Orleans Saints vs. #3San Francisco Forty-Niners. In the firstaspect of the RS PR which is driven by my performance ratings, I have NO ratedat the top alone, with SF on the next level down. On the season NO was #2 in my performancestats only trailing HOU (#1 off, #20 def, #31 SOS), while SF was #6 in theperformance stats (#15 off, #4 def, #30 SOS) – which all equates in myestimation to SF being one notch below NO. The second aspect of the power rating relates to ATS performance andalthough it has a smaller weighting than the performance aspect of the formula,it does make an impact – and in that NO has a small advantage there as wellpartially based on the fact they started the season in a better position inthose ratings than SF did. In the playoff version which takes into accountregular season performance such as points scored, points against, and strengthof opponents (and strength of their opponents opponents), NO has about a 3ptedge which is just about offset by the home field advantage of SF in this game. Edge: Even

7. RECENT PERFORMANCE: another bigaspect of handicapping is recognizing not only who has performed best over thecourse of an entire season, but also who comes in playing the best football asJanuary arrives. I have a sheet thatshows me all 32 teams in the NFL, and their offense/defense/total performancerating by game for all 17 weeks of the season. I also break this down by shading each team’s home and away games to geta better feel for not only how well a team is currently playing, but also howtheir home/away splits have been recently and for the entire season. Wins and losses are good indicators of who isor isn’t playing well, but often it does not tell the entire story likeanalyzing statistics does – and as mentioned earlier these ratings are about asgood as it gets in both the ATS and SU world. When breaking these two teams down we first notice both teams have beenplaying well of late – remember 80 is the “breakeven” in these ratings – NOscored triple digits 3 of their last 4 games (only one they did not they reached97), while SF scored 91 and 103 in their last 2, and reached triple digits in 3of their last 7. Triple digit ratingsare reached by approx. 4 teams every week. But one noticeable trait seen in these ratings for certain are thehome/away splits definitely favors SF. Edge: SF small based on the home/away splits; entire season favors NO.

8. ATS HISTORICAL TRENDS: on anothersheet in my package I have the last 4 seasons of ATS performance by team brokeninto a few buckets: four high level buckets as home fav/dog and awayfav/dog. Within those buckets I breaklines into 3 categories: 3 or less, 3.5-6.5, 7+. When utilizing this analysis for thisspecific matchup we see SF is a robust 15-6 as a home favorite (including 5-0this year )– but alas they are an underdog this week for the first time allseason and in that spot they are 3-3, going 2-4 SU. NO on the otherhand is 11-9 as a road favorite going 17-3 SU – this season in this spot theyare 3-3 ATS including 4-2 SU. Hard toreach any conclusions using this data as on one hand NO is 17-3 SU over thelast 4 seasons as a road favorite – but that is offset some by the fact theyonly went 4-2 in that spot this year. Some specific trends we see are NO are 8-0 L8 as a favorite (a streakthat started following their SU loss @ STL earlier this season), 8-0 L8 vs.NFC, and 10-3 L13 meetings (dating back to their days as NFC West divisionalrivals); SF is 10-2-1 L13 vs. NFC, 13-3-1 L17 overall, and 12-3-1 L16 ongrass. Again, both teams with lots ofATS hot streaks coming into this game. Edge: Even