Monday, November 16, 2015

NCAA FOOTBALL 2015: Week ELEVEN Review According to SBPI [SportsBoss Power Index]

Here is the sixth CFB SBPI installment of the 2015 season.  To read more about how I calculate my ratings look back at this entry that also has links to other entries surrounding this topic.

Without further ado here are the Top 25 rankings through action on Saturday November 14.  The columns OFF/DEF/TOTAL represent where each team statistically ranks across 128 teams in the FBS; we also included ESPN’s FPI & Sagarin’s rankings which can be used as a solid comparison tool followed by each team’s SOS adjusted RATING and RANK:

RECORD
UNIT RANKS RAW
RANKS
SOS ADJ #'s
WINS
LOSS
Team
OFF
DEF
TOTAL
FPI
SAG
RATING
RANK
10
0
Clemson
10
7
1
5
3
286.2
1
9
1
Alabama
45
2
5
3
1
281.9
2
9
1
Oklahoma
7
19
3
1
2
263.5
3
8
2
Stanford
14
31
13
11
9
250.2
4
9
1
Florida
64
3
15
14
10
246.7
5
10
0
Iowa
27
12
8
29
16
241.4
6
10
0
Ohio State
30
9
6
4
4
239.9
7
9
1
Notre Dame
15
45
18
7
6
239.7
8
9
1
TCU
1
51
9
6
8
236.5
9
8
2
Michigan
56
6
13

17
12

236.0
10
6
4
Arkansas
2
82
35
21
24
231.8
11
7
3
USC
19
54
28
8
11
228.2
12
7
2
LSU
27
49
32
10
17
226.8
13
8
2
Utah
40
35
32
23
19
226.0
14
8
2
Florida State
30
30
20
16
15
222.7
15
10
0
Oklahoma State
20
35
19
13
7
222.0
16
7
3
Boise State
36
4
4
32
41
221.8
17
7
3
Georgia
66
10
23
18
23
221.7
18
7
3
Pittsburgh
43
35
37
38
30
220.8
19
9
1
North Carolina
5
52
16
15
14
218.6
20
7
3
Mississippi
23
52
32
9
13
218.1
21
9
1
Michigan State
29
33
21
22
21
217.3
22
7
3
Mississippi State
39
35
30
20
22
216.7
23
8
2
Wisconsin
68
4
16
24
20
214.9
24
6
4
Tennessee
45
49
47

12
18

214.2
25

Currently there is 85% correlation between SBPI ranking & wins & that correlation has increased each week

Next up here is a matrix that examines the ranking of each team currently checking into the SBPI Top 25 by week:

Team
WK4
WK5
WK6
WK7
WK8
WK9
WK10
WK11
Clemson
4
3
1
3
1
1
1
1
Alabama
3
1
2
1
2
2
2
2
Oklahoma
19
14
33
7
4
5
4
3
Stanford
1
2
3
5
5
7
3
4
Florida
7
7
4
8
8
4
7
5
Iowa
9
4
5
2
3
3
6
6
Ohio State
30
30
25
19
12
10
9
7
Notre Dame
8
6
8
10
7
9
5
8
TCU
12
12
9
11
11
6
8
9
Michigan
15
16
10
18
21
20
14
10
Arkansas
31
10
13
15
16
15
16
11
USC
18
20
16
20
13
14
13
12
LSU
2
19
21
6
6
8
10
13
Utah
25
18
19
4
9
11
12
14
Florida State
22
27
14
14
23
16
25
15
Oklahoma State
21
22
22
23
17
22
18
16
Boise State
14
8
7
12
15
12
11
17
Georgia
6
5
11
9
10
28
19
18
Pittsburgh
33
13
15
17
14
21
27
19
North Carolina
45
32
34
39
35
30
28
20
Mississippi
20
25
29
33
19
13
24
21
Michigan State
34
26
35
21
29
25
29
22
Mississippi State
10
33
32
28
28
26
15
23
Wisconsin
29
23
20
22
24
23
23
24
Tennessee
28
37
24
25
25
18
20
25

Related to that here is a table testing how the rankings (1-128) have correlated weekly to our latest version:

81.2%
CORRELATION WK4 TO WK11
87.8%
CORRELATION WK5 TO WK11
91.5%
CORRELATION WK6 TO WK11
94.8%
CORRELATION WK7 TO WK11
97.3%
CORRELATION WK8 TO WK11
97.9%
CORRELATION WK9 TO WK11
98.8%
CORRELATION WK10 TO WK11

Breakdown of Top 25 by conference:

AAC
0
ACC
4
B10
5
B12
3
CUSA
0
IND
1
MAC
0
MWC
1
P12
3
SEC
8
SUN
0

Here are additional teams of note that did not make the SBPI Top 25 but were ranked inside the Top 25 of at least one of the other two power rating sources I use for comparative purposes:
#29 UCLA (#19 FPI)
#31 Baylor (#2 FPI, #5 SAG)
#38 West Virginia (#25 FPI)

Strength of each conference taking average RATING of ALL TEAMS:

SEC
80.35
ACC
78.80
IND
78.64
P12
78.00
B10
77.89
B12
76.20
AAC
71.88
MWC
70.78
MAC
70.30
CUSA
66.60
SUN
65.09

Next up let’s look at the Top 10 non-Power 5 conference teams (excluding Notre Dame):

RECORD
UNIT RANKS RAW
RANKS
SOS ADJ #'s
WINS
LOSS
CONF
Team
OFF
DEF
TOTAL
SAG
RATING
RANK
7
3
MWC
Boise State
36
4
4
41
221.8
17
10
0
AAC
Houston
7
25
6
27
211.5
26
7
3
IND
BYU
60
25
41
48
204.3
30
8
2
AAC
Memphis
7
79
39
36
201.8
32
7
3
MWC
San Diego State
48
8
9
56
200.0
33
8
2
SB
Appalachian State
5
18
2
63
199.6
35
7
3
MWC
Air Force
25
16
9
69
196.7
39
6
4
AAC
South Florida
52
35
46
66
195.2
40
8
2
AAC
Temple
64
13
27
51
190.8
41
8
2
MAC
Bowling Green
10
71
36
37
189.6
43

Here are the Bottom 10 teams:

RECORD
UNIT RANKS RAW
RANKS
SOS ADJ #'s
WINS
LOSS
CONF
Team
OFF
DEF
TOTAL
SAG
RATING
RANK
1
10
MAC
Eastern Michigan
92
118
114
127
86.1
119
3
7
MWC
Fresno State
114
103
120
102
85.4
120
2
9
MAC
Miami (Ohio)
121
90
119
124
85.2
121
2
8
P12
Oregon State
113
119
123
95
84.6
122
2
7
SB
Texas State
87
128
121
120
75.3
123
1
9
CUSA
North Texas
111
127
124
126
63.6
124
0
10
B12
Kansas
123
125
127
107
63.1
125
1
9
SB
Louisiana-Monroe
126
112
124
122
61.3
126
2
9
MWC
Hawai'i
128
107
126
118
54.0
127
0
10
AAC
UCF
127
121
128
114
42.9
128

Lastly here are the Bottom 5 Power 5 conference teams:

RECORD
UNIT RANKS RAW
RANKS
SOS ADJ #'s
WINS
LOSS
CONF
Team
OFF
DEF
TOTAL
SAG
RATING
RANK
4
6
SEC
Kentucky
111
82
107
76
119.7
97
3
6
B12
Kansas State
107
103
116
55
114.7
100
2
8
B10
Purdue
116
93
117
92
106.7
106
2
8
P12
Oregon State
113
119
123
95
84.6
122
0
10
B12
Kansas
123
125
127
107
63.1
125



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